Miracle win offers Australian PM authority and government stability

[webfact]

Miracle win offers Australian PM authority and government stability

By Colin Packham

 

FILE PHOTO: Prime Minister of Australia Scott Morrison arrives for APEC CEO Summit 2018 at Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea, 17 November 2018. Fazry Ismail/Pool via REUTERS/File photo

 

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison may have won more than just another three years in office for his conservative coalition government.

 

By winning what was seen as an unwinnable election, the unexpected leader has cemented his authority over the Liberal Party, giving him the muscle to end a decade of instability that has seen a revolving door of prime ministers.

 

It was a stunning personal victory for Morrison, who largely flew solo during campaign as senior ministers stayed close to home to defend seats thought to be at risk.

 

"It was a one-man show. There will be much written about this in the years to come," Haydon Manning, a professor of political science at Flinders University, told Reuters. "He delivered the victory against the odds."

 

Morrison became prime minister as a compromise candidate after a right-wing faction ousted Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal Party leader last August.

 

The resulting Liberal-National coalition was behind in every opinion poll - including an exit poll on Saturday - since Morrison took over, with voters angry at Turnbull's ouster and frustrated by a perceived lack of action over climate change and a dearth of fresh polices.

 

But Morrison on Saturday defied those odds, securing re-election in what he described as a miracle. The coalition is on course to win a third term either with the support of independents or through an outright majority.

 

After a decade of political turmoil that saw both Labor and the coalition depose several prime ministers, changes Morrison introduced last year mean that it is now very difficult for his party to remove him now that he has won an election.

 

ASPIRATION MESSAGE

The secret of Morrison's success, lawmakers, election strategists and analysts say, was twofold.

 

First, he could see a path to victory through target areas such as the urban fringes of Queensland state, where he won enough seats to offset expected swings against the government in city-based seats.

 

And he was able to frame the ballot as a contest between him and Labor leader Bill Shorten, whose reform agenda was portrayed by the government as at odds with Australian aspirations.

 

"Morrison's biggest asset was Bill Shorten. He made the election a personal contest and in the end, the people never liked or trusted Shorten," John Hewson, former leader of Australia's Liberal Party, told Reuters.

 

Hewson now shares a connection with Shorten: as Liberal leader in opposition in 1993, he similarly lost what was considered an unloseable election after releasing a detailed and comprehensive tax reform policy well ahead of the vote.

 

In this weekend's election, Labor proposed removing two generous tax concessions enjoyed primarily by older, wealthy Australians. But rather than winning favour with younger voters, the policies become the target of Morrison's campaign, fostering suspicion of Labor.

 

Morrison - who centred his campaign on his government's economic credentials - used Labor's tax proposals as evidence that the opposition was "coming after your money".

 

A Labor strategist said the government successfully cobbled together a coalition of support among voters in urban fringes and rural townships.

 

"They won a lot of voters from older Australians with its attacks about a retirement tax. But we lost votes from younger people that we didn't expect," said the strategist, who declined to be named as he is not authorised to talk to the media. "We didn't do enough to talk about jobs for these people in these regions."

 

NEVER STOPPED CAMPAIGNING

Shortly after the first vote counts were released on Saturday evening, it was clear a shock was in the works.

 

Although Morrison's support for the mining industry was expected to deliver victories in the north of Queensland, a state where coal is a major employer, victories in the outer suburbs in the south of the state belied exit polls.

 

On Saturday, Morrison embarked on a last-ditch visit to the southern island state of Tasmania before flying back to his Sydney electorate to vote. That bore fruit, with the government's winning two seats in Tasmania from Labor that may help deliver an outright majority.

 

Morrison was also able to limit swings against the government in Victoria, seen as the major weak spot after a stinging rejection of the Liberal Party at state elections in November.

 

In rural areas, the National Party comfortably fended off what were expected to be strong challenges from independent candidates after the party had lost safe seats in state elections.

 

Throughout the campaign, Morrison continued to privately stress that a victory was possible, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said on Sunday. But he often seemed alone in that belief.

 

"I have to say, until it happened, I didn't think it would happen," Liberal Senator Arthur Sinodinos said on ABC TV late on Saturday night.

 

(Reporting by Colin Packham; Editing by John Mair and Gerry Doyle)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-05-20

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[Tippaporn]

Is this the guy who wants to increase the penalty for being offensive to others from 3 to 5 years?  Doesn't sound like a guy who understands what freedom is.  Good luck with him.

[RJRS1301]

10 minutes ago, Tippaporn said:

Is this the guy who wants to increase the penalty for being offensive to others from 3 to 5 years?  Doesn't sound like a guy who understands what freedom is.  Good luck with him.

He sure is, this is based on "protecting religious people" read christian, he is also fundamentalist christian, background in advertising, former immigration minister who :turned back the boats, and consequently have UN approved refugees in camps on Nauru and Manus Island for over a decade. But happy claps each Sunday.

We live in interesting times.

 

 

[canopus1969]

1 hour ago, RJRS1301 said:

He sure is, this is based on "protecting religious people" read christian, he is also fundamentalist christian, background in advertising, former immigration minister who :turned back the boats, and consequently have UN approved refugees in camps on Nauru and Manus Island for over a decade. But happy claps each Sunday.

We live in interesting times.

 

 

Good for him - wish we had someone like that in the UK

[ezzra]

It goes to show how much the media and political pundit who predicted a huge win for labor knows, it is not that Morrison was the better candidate, it's that Bill shorten ( who's even his name was mocked over and over) was an uninspiring, charmless man in a grey suit trying to win what everybody thought was a sure win, but in politics, like in politics, there's no such thing as sure win...

[CapraIbex]

Everyone underestimated how much people are addicted to their tax loopholes, refunds and deductions.

[Orton Rd]

1 hour ago, RJRS1301 said:

He sure is, this is based on "protecting religious people" read christian, he is also fundamentalist christian, background in advertising, former immigration minister who :turned back the boats, and consequently have UN approved refugees in camps on Nauru and Manus Island for over a decade. But happy claps each Sunday.

We live in interesting times.

 

 

Sounds like a bloke who is doing the right thing, glad he won well done Australia.

[Danthefarang]

Everyone underestimated how much people are addicted to their tax loopholes, refunds and deductions.

Imagine......wanting to keep the money you’ve earned....instead of giving it to those who don’t earn......pretty ignorant huh....


Sent from my iPad using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[CapraIbex]

"Local share market surges after Scott Morrison election win"

 

"Investors are clearly happy with Scott Morrison’s win in the federal election, sending local shares soaring to a decade high."

 

https://www.news.com.au/finance/markets/australian-markets/local-share-market-surges-after-scott-morrison-election-win/news-story/1c596413bd82a63a1e08de358ea35360

[simple1]

2 minutes ago, Orton Rd said:

Sounds like a bloke who is doing the right thing, glad he won well done Australia.

The UN has not approved the Off Shore detention centres in Manus and Nauru. The majority have been vetted as genuine refugees, but the challenge is to relocate them to a third country, as it is worldwide. Indeed they have been extremely extensive to maintain for the Australian tax payer - the most expensive 'solution per head worldwide, plus PNG govt has directed the Oz govt to remove the detainees on Manus as contrary to their human rights charter. All the above of course ignores the fact that asylum seekers were not a primary issue in the elections.

[Orton Rd]

who cares what the UN says or thinks? it's dominated by third world agendas. Australia has spoken- they do not want hordes of illegal migrants and fake asylum seekers, keep them out at all costs. If they are genuine migrants they can apply for visas before turning up on boats. It was not a major issue in the campaign- it would have been if not for people like this.

[Thakkar]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

They won a lot of voters from older Australians with its attacks about a retirement tax.

 

After bequeathing them a damaged planet, the olds continue to screw over the young every which way.  

[simple1]

7 minutes ago, Danthefarang said:

 

Imagine......wanting to keep the money you’ve earned....instead of giving it to those who don’t earn......pretty ignorant huh....


Sent from my iPad using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

 

Shorten is correct that welfare payments in Oz are ridiculously low and overdue for reform. IMO the reason why so many work in the off the books cash economy (estimated at 75% in some industries) as reductions are so onerous if declaring part time income. I voted for Morrison as IMO overall the better party & vision. However, Morrison is disingenuous in his comments on welfare; welfare policy for payments is overdue for improvement.

[Boon Mee]

1 hour ago, canopus1969 said:

Good for him - wish we had someone like that in the UK

He sounds like a squared-away guy. 

[simple1]

3 minutes ago, Orton Rd said:

who cares what the UN says or thinks? it's dominated by third world agendas. Australia has spoken- they do not want hordes of illegal migrants and fake asylum seekers, keep them out at all costs. If they are genuine migrants they can apply for visas before turning up on boats. It was not a major issue in the campaign- it would have been if not for people like this.

There are plenty of asylum seekers entering by air as well as illegals i.e. visa over-stayers (mainly Westerners and Asian - not Arabs). In fact overall more asylum seekers by air than arrivals by sea. I doubt you will bother to read the links below, but some members may do so.

 

https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/12/09/record-number-asylum-seekers-peter-dutton/

 

https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/more-asylum-seekers-come-to-australia-by-plane-than-boat-ng-b881108447z

 

https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1415/AsylumFacts?t=1&cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjcw%3D%3D&refsrc=email&iid=7d3c3e522204406dbb9ba810aa4adc82&uid=717513820978057216&nid=244+272699400

[CapraIbex]

"The warning from Scott Morrison that Bill Shorten ignored"

 

Most pertinent to us old farts:
"The retirees were long-time Labor voters but after hearing Mr Morrison’s comments about Labor’s changes to superannuation they told news.com.au they might switch to Liberal."

 

https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/the-warning-from-scott-morrison-that-bill-shorten-ignored/news-story/45751965a43f40a8edc5dc353764bf73

[Reigntax]

13 minutes ago, simple1 said:

Shorten is correct that welfare payments in Oz are ridiculously low and overdue for reform. IMO the reason why so many work in the off the books cash economy (estimated at 75% in some industries) as reductions are so onerous if declaring part time income. I voted for Morrison as IMO overall the better party & vision. However, Morrison is disingenuous in his comments on welfare; welfare policy for payments is overdue for improvement.

What a load of rubbish. More than 70% pay no tax or receive parental payments and or welfare assistance that exceeds any tax they pay.

 

They are therefore having a ride of those who work hard to contribute to the country.

 

Bill Shorten was also scum, will always be so and had his arse kicked because people could see through him and his union mates who pushed him into his position.

 

Why?

Because they know how weak he is and could be manipulated for their own benefit.

 

Morrison may not inspire but he has done a reasonable job so far.

[Olmate]

39 minutes ago, Orton Rd said:

Sounds like a bloke who is doing the right thing, glad he won well done Australia.

Perhaps you could get him to assist Oz expats since he,s such a good bloke.

[simple1]

@Boon Mee how about explaining what's so funny about my posts? Tell me where you believe misinformation etc. Do you post sneering emojis based upon US extreme partisan attitudes which thankfully have yet to dominate Oz politics.

[simple1]

3 minutes ago, Reigntax said:

What a load of rubbish. More than 70% pay no tax or receive parental payments and or welfare assistance that exceeds any tax they pay.

 

They are therefore having a ride of those who work hard to contribute to the country.

 

Bill Shorten was also scum, will always be so and had his arse kicked because people could see through him and his union mates who pushed him into his position.

 

Why?

Because they know how weak he is and could be manipulated for their own benefit.

 

Morrison may not inspire but he has done a reasonable job so far.

Try some contextual comprehension. I was not referencing middle class welfare, but factual info regards NewStart, plus relevant to those reliant on Age Pension and likely other forms of welfare e.g. disability.

[CapraIbex]

4 minutes ago, Olmate said:

Perhaps you could get him to assist Oz expats since he,s such a good bloke.

No changes to franking credits will definitely be of assistance to some of us!

Currency exchange rates will dip further towards to the end of 2019 - no matter who is at the helm. Unfortunate for a few tourists and some expats (gotta hold your breath...).

[ThaiBunny]

I have to laugh at this headline - how good a job is it in increasing stability when you manage to increase your majority from one to two?

[Orton Rd]

Any majority is better than losing an election to leftists who were reported as being the easy winners- ha ha.

[ThaiBunny]

Just now, Orton Rd said:

Any majority is better than losing an election to leftists

It's the mirror image of 2013 - then my Liberal-supporting friends held their nose while voting for Abbott, this year my Labor-supporting friends held their nose while voting for Shorten

[ParadiseLost]

Big surprise: the wealthy white privileged voters voted for the party most likely to ensure they will keep their million dollar homes and protected status in a country of only 25 million people.  The party least likely to care about ordinary people's welfare.

 

There are bigger cities in the world, who cares about these narcissists.

[Orton Rd]

35 minutes ago, simple1 said:

There are plenty of asylum seekers entering by air as well as illegals i.e. visa over-stayers (mainly Westerners and Asian - not Arabs). In fact overall more asylum seekers by air than arrivals by sea. I doubt you will bother to read the links below, but some members may do so.

 

https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/12/09/record-number-asylum-seekers-peter-dutton/

 

https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/more-asylum-seekers-come-to-australia-by-plane-than-boat-ng-b881108447z

 

https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1415/AsylumFacts?t=1&cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjcw%3D%3D&refsrc=email&iid=7d3c3e522204406dbb9ba810aa4adc82&uid=717513820978057216&nid=244+272699400

Of course they are coming by air nobody claimed otherwise and almost none of them are genuine, they have all the lies and sob stories lined up, some lie about their ages or countries of origin. The women mostly have rape stories and the men death threats. Asylum seekers are meant to go to the nearest safe country, unless they are from NZ that is almost never the case.

[Lacessit]

1 hour ago, Orton Rd said:

Sounds like a bloke who is doing the right thing, glad he won well done Australia.

Wrong. Australians have become timid. What they have done is kicked the can down the road on issues such as climate change, housing affordability, energy policy, and personal/multinational tax rorts.

The only hope now is that Morrison starts pinching Labor ideas. Steady as she goes I fear will exact a stiff price in the next decade.

[farmerjo]

It was interesting watching a replay of Insiders yesterday with Barry asking Josh what the party will be doing now about climate change.

Credit to Josh saying exactly what we promised before the election.

Some people still don't get it.

[CapraIbex]

32 minutes ago, ParadiseLost said:

Big surprise: the wealthy white privileged voters voted for the party most likely to ensure they will keep their million dollar homes and protected status in a country of only 25 million people.  The party least likely to care about ordinary people's welfare.

 

There are bigger cities in the world, who cares about these narcissists.

No surprise at all. It's quite natural that one protects his home; It is hard earned and selfishness has nothing to do with it.  And the number of inhabitants of a particular country/city makes hardly a difference.

[simple1]

46 minutes ago, Orton Rd said:

Of course they are coming by air nobody claimed otherwise and almost none of them are genuine, they have all the lies and sob stories lined up, some lie about their ages or countries of origin. The women mostly have rape stories and the men death threats. Asylum seekers are meant to go to the nearest safe country, unless they are from NZ that is almost never the case.

I bet you cannot factually back up any of your claims of asylum seekers flying into Oz.