Myth: Strong baht deterring western tourists to Thailand

[Ulic]

16 hours ago, WinnieTheKhwai said:

Excellent article!  ❤️ 

(Now wait for the tinfoil madhatters claiming all the numbers are fake. ???? )

 

 

Not sure if the numbers are fake or not. What I do know for certain is hotels, restaurants and bar owners are crying the blues regarding low tourist numbers. Maybe they are the ones telling porkies and there businesses are really racking in the cash. Who knows.

[yogi100]

5 hours ago, arithai12 said:

The article said 50 Eur to the baht, when it should have been 50 baht to the Eur. Hence the sarcasm by Yogi.

Clear now?

 

I was just one of the so called 'tinfoil mad hatters' that Winnie the Khwai claimed would be calling the figures 'fake.' In this instance they obviously were.

[yogi100]

2 hours ago, Ulic said:

Not sure if the numbers are fake or not. What I do know for certain is hotels, restaurants and bar owners are crying the blues regarding low tourist numbers. Maybe they are the ones telling porkies and there businesses are really racking in the cash. Who knows.

 

Yesterday I noticed more empty rooms in my central Pattaya hotel than I have ever seen before in the 17 years I've spent staying there on my holidays.

 

Apart from during the weekends the bars that I frequent or walk past are very quiet. Even the two drinks for the price of one outfits are not what you might call 'buzzing'. It actually defies logic how some of these bars can afford to remain in business.

 

The quality tourists Thailand is now said to be attracting are also said to be spending big money in Thailand. Apart from fancy hotels little is said about what they are spending that money on.

 

Everyone is complaining about the exchange rate and the more stringent visa regulations are not in force yet! When these start to take effect the brown stuff will definitely hit the fan where the traditional falang punters and the bar owners and staff are concerned.

 

You've only got to walk round any major tourist resort in the LOS to see how many bars there are and how many Thai people are employed in them.

 

Anyone who stays for more than 30 days or spends their winter months in Thailand is going to be affected when the visa regs take effect. It's not just going to be about a strong baht!

[yogi100]

12 hours ago, ianezy0 said:

Wow, sounds as though you really understand worldwide currency.........not

What doesn't he really understand.

 

You don't need a degree in economics to see what OwenM said is more or less accurate.

[Morty T]

19 hours ago, WinnieTheKhwai said:

Excellent article!  ❤️ 

(Now wait for the tinfoil madhatters claiming all the numbers are fake. ???? )

 

 

All true on the short term. However, we had to leave Japan in 2010 after a few years of 70-77 yen to the dollar from 110. Sure, the immediate effect won't be noticeable, but when Rice is 30% higher on the world market, and tourist's hotels and flight costs also climb, cheaper destinations will be more appealing. Thailand, like most SE Asian nations, is an exporter. They sell their stuff to other countries, the internal/domestic economy isn't enough to maintain a stable GDP. When they stuff they sell (exports/tourism) moves outside the price of being competitive then these naysayers predictions will come to bear.

[yogi100]

11 hours ago, meand said:

People definitely come to Thailand if they want, and don't if they don't want. I do not think calculations of baht power come into play in too many decisions at all. It seems like that should be evident. You really think the family wanting to sit on the beach in Krabi for a week checks the baht before coming? 

European families are not going to travel 6000 miles and 12 hours if they're lucky to visit a place where it's becoming too expensive. Not when they've got Spain, Greece or the newly developed Balkan resorts two, three or maybe four hours away.

 

It costs a family of four a hell of a lot of money for a holiday anywhere these days.

[yogi100]

6 hours ago, arithai12 said:

The article said 50 Eur to the baht, when it should have been 50 baht to the Eur. Hence the sarcasm by Yogi.

Clear now?

I didn't mean to be sarcastic. It was obviously an error that had been overlooked.

[Gecko123]

10 hours ago, chama said:

But what about tourist spending g levels? That after all is what the economy needs to thrive.

This is a good point. Because they travel further to get here, Westerners have longer average stays than more regional visitors. The exchange rates may affect the average stay and that wouldn't show up in the arrival numbers.

 

Sooner or later, climate change is going to affect Thailand's tourism numbers. If northern winters become warmer that translates into less incentive to take a tropical vacation (especially if the weather is uncomfortably hot at your destination. Think: India).

 

TAT keeps hiking projections for tourist arrivals, which begs the question: "At what level do they see tourist volumes leveling off?" Do they imagine the numbers will keep increasing ad infinitum? Do these projections factor in things like the likelihood of global recession, climate change, exchange rates, reputational damage due to mass tourism, or even the possibility that tourism might generally become less popular in the future? Somehow, I doubt it.

 

Edited June 23, 2019 by Gecko123

[Peterw42]

The high baht doesn't deter tourists that much. I am in a couple of Pattaya facebook groups and a guy this morning fresh off the plane telling everyone he spent 18,000 baht last night and looking forward to the rest of his trip. 3-4 guys posting there support for not being a cheap Charlie and saying they spend the same.

These guys dont even stop to think that $500 US would get them meals, drunk and a hooker back home.

 

[CGW]

11 hours ago, Lipoman said:

Also backside of the form, under Important Notice, item 1, the Form states "All passengers must complete the T.M.6 card."

I never realised I was being such a "rebel" by not filling out the backside of this form! I have always considered it a "cheeky" attempt by TAT to solicit personal information that they have no right to. It appears to be working as the assumption by most is that it has to filled in as it is on the BACK of a official form.

Note: It states on their website the following - "The redesigned form has only one side for international travellers to record both arrival and departure information, with an automatic channel barcode for more convenience. It replaced the previous two-page departure and arrival cards."

I have lived here for 32 years, previous to that I used to visit for business, I have long been a frequent traveller using the airport multiple times a month, I have never filled the "survey" side of the form in, I have never been asked to fill it in, no IO has ever remarked on my not filling it in, I cannot recall one occasion when the IO has even looked to see if the "survey" side has been filled in, there only interest has been the official side.

I too have never had any "hassle" with Immigration.

[CygnusX1]

3 hours ago, yogi100 said:

European families are not going to travel 6000 miles and 12 hours if they're lucky to visit a place where it's becoming too expensive. Not when they've got Spain, Greece or the newly developed Balkan resorts two, three or maybe four hours away.

Most people find that Mediterranean beach resorts aren’t very appealing in the European winter, unless they’re a family of very tough swimmers. Accommodation in Thailand in the winter high season is still inexpensive even compared with some of the cheaper Mediterranean countries such as Croatia.

[30la]

20 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

Approximately 20% of Thailands GDP (Approx. 2.3 Trillion Baht) is from Tourism..... 

 

I don't think the Ex SAS guy who propped up the bar with you thought about this properly before telling you that Westerners are not liked in this country and the way to get rid of us is to strengthen the Baht.

 

 

Don't forget that the Thai people now count on China and India!

[richard_smith237]

 

18 minutes ago, 30la said:

20 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

Approximately 20% of Thailands GDP (Approx. 2.3 Trillion Baht) is from Tourism..... 

 

I don't think the Ex SAS guy who propped up the bar with you thought about this properly before telling you that Westerners are not liked in this country and the way to get rid of us is to strengthen the Baht.

 

 

Don't forget that the Thai people now count on China and India!

The baht has also strengthened against both the Yuan and the Rupee... 

 

 

 

 

[hotchilli]

On 6/22/2019 at 11:46 AM, brokenbone said:

i think tourists bother less with currency exchange then expats,

they already set their mind on spending whatever money they saved up on a couple of weeks holiday.

 

expats otoh are seeking to save money while here,

well those that hasnt lost the plot at least

Single or couple tourists might not be influenced by the currency exchange rate as they wish to come here & party, and have a dual income to pay for it.

However the family group consisting of parents plus 2 or 3 kids might well be choosing a cheaper destination, not only in flight deals but spending power when here.. there are much better deals to be had elsewhere. 

An example I have a German friend with a family who always came here each year for the last 10 years... instead of coming here for 2 weeks this year he took his family to a beach resort in Egypt for one month for exactly the same money.

He said Thailand is now off the list.

[yogi100]

6 hours ago, CygnusX1 said:

Most people find that Mediterranean beach resorts aren’t very appealing in the European winter, unless they’re a family of very tough swimmers. Accommodation in Thailand in the winter high season is still inexpensive even compared with some of the cheaper Mediterranean countries such as Croatia.

Most people are aware of what the weather in the Med is like in winter that's why they go there in the Summer months.

 

Few families can afford Winter and Summer holidays.

 

It costs at least around 78K baht (2000 quid) to fly a family of four the 6000 miles from the UK to the LOS. That can increase dramatically around July, August, Xmas and the NY.

Edited June 23, 2019 by yogi100

[hansnl]

On 6/22/2019 at 1:15 PM, MadMuhammad said:

It’s just the whingy expats that the currency changes bother. All the conspiracy theories about manipulation, ‘they don’t want us hear’ are just a smoke screen by many to illicit sympathy because of their lack of planning/foresight. 

Mid I hear ‘combodia/Vietnam/Philippines is looking good!’ My head is gonna explode. If it’s looking good why are you still here?

Because it isn't always really easy to cut off and start again, this decision takes time to come to fruition.

Friend, in Thailand for eight years, was talking about relocating to The Phillipines for quite a long time.

Last april he did it.

 

Talking about planning & foresight, of course you did just that, but planning a nosedive of your currency against the baht is not something people expected.

 

For example, Dutch expats have the problem they have to live with a diving Euro AND a government meddling in the pensionfunds resulting in lower pensions.

But of course, you in your wisdom would have done just that.......

 

 

[PingRoundTheWorld]

Such a nonsense piece - the grand majority of tourist increase came from Asian countries, not western - western tourists are significantly down for at least the last year or so.

[CygnusX1]

4 hours ago, yogi100 said:

It costs at least around 78K baht (2000 quid) to fly a family of four the 6000 miles from the UK to the LOS.

But this debate’s about whether the strong baht’s deterring tourists, and I don’t think that the appreciation of the baht has had any impact on airfares, which if anything continue to drop in real terms. Add 10 per cent to the price of accommodation, and Thai beach resorts are still very cheap compared with Western countries. I agree though, that if I could afford only one beach holiday a year and lived in the U.K., I’d certainly choose the Mediterranean over Thailand.

[marcusarelus]

For all the numbers aren't accurate people why don't you post some that are?  They look accurate to me and from what I see Thailand is doing fine economically.  New roads and buildings and malls going up at record rates.  Car sales are fine, May up 4%.  If tourism was down being it is so important to the economy car sales would certainly be down.   https://www.marklines.com/en/statistics/flash_sales/salesfig_thailand_2019

[DD13]

On 22 June 2019 at 12:01 PM, CGW said:

Does anybody fill out the back section - it is done by choice - not mandatory!

I filled out the back on Wednesday, as I always do.

I didn't see anything on it that is detrimental or invasive

I've made this my home for the past ten years, Sure I don't agree with everything that happens here.....

But it's their country and I am a guest

 

[Felt 35]

I have heard about talking up prices from real estate agents......however tourist numbers I don't know.....

[CGW]

2 hours ago, DD13 said:

I filled out the back on Wednesday, as I always do.

I didn't see anything on it that is detrimental or invasive

I've made this my home for the past ten years, Sure I don't agree with everything that happens here.....

But it's their country and I am a guest

I can see why you noted my post as "confused" ????

So you have lived here for ten years and you are filling out a survey that states its for "non residents" You have most likely single handedly rendered the TAT statistics unreliable at best - well done!

You are a guest? my situation is a little different - I am a paying guest ???? 

[DD13]

6 minutes ago, CGW said:

I can see why you noted my post as "confused" ????

So you have lived here for ten years and you are filling out a survey that states its for "non residents" You have most likely single handedly rendered the TAT statistics unreliable at best - well done!

You are a guest? my situation is a little different - I am a paying guest ???? 

 

6 minutes ago, CGW said:

I can see why you noted my post as "confused" ????

So you have lived here for ten years and you are filling out a survey that states its for "non residents" You have most likely single handedly rendered the TAT statistics unreliable at best - well done!

You are a guest? my situation is a little different - I am a paying guest ???? 

Where did you see that I noted your post confused

And you think resident expats live here without paying !!

Get real 

Some of us have spent multi millions of baht on property and living expenses

[30la]

22 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

The baht has also strengthened against both the Yuan and the Rupee... 

 

 

 

 

Absolutely right, don't forget that the economy in the EU and the US has been falling for a long time and that the journey costs more because of the distance. Thailand must try to change its monetary policy, exports are already suffering and the Baht risks a dangerous fall like years ago!

[petermik]

On 6/23/2019 at 12:44 AM, yogi100 said:

 

Yesterday I noticed more empty rooms in my central Pattaya hotel than I have ever seen before in the 17 years I've spent staying there on my holidays.

 

 

I,ve been coming for 11 years and the last 5 resident in an apartment block that when I initially found it had a waiting list.....in the past 6/7 months many long term expat Brits and other European tennants have gone back or rather than pay for the year to hold their room have given up and are taking their chance on an apartment being available upon their return.....there are 34 apartments but at present I would say only 50% are occupied 

[trd]

50 Euros for one Thai Baht.....jeez

If I could get 50 euros for one Thai baht I'd be a multi-millionaire. I think you mean 50 Baht for 1 Euro.

[Jimbo2014]

Nothing to do with the dangerous roads, polluted environment, poor infrastructure, rule by military junta and daily scams...  All about the high currency.

Time for a new set of tourists to discover LOS.

[gk10002000]

On 6/22/2019 at 11:32 AM, mmushr00m said:

Makes sense.

First time visitors will have nothing to compare against. To them the baht is still lower than their own currency and the cost of living is still lower than their own.

Those who feel it are expats, long stayers and frequent visitors. Those who remember when Khao pad cost B25 and $1 = B35+

Personally even the Mrs says to give LOS a miss this year.

Heck I remember about 44 baht to the 1 USD in 2004.  Noodle soup outside 7 11 stores in Pattaya 30 baht

[elliss]

On 6/22/2019 at 11:24 AM, marko kok prong said:

If the figures are produced by TAT,,well then Alice in Wonderland is a true story.

 

Not forgetting the Wizard of OZ. 

 

 

[elliss]

On 6/22/2019 at 5:25 PM, marcusarelus said:

Actually the pound took a bath.

 

   Soon , gbp/thai baht ,  same same . 

   Hope i die before i go broke ..