Any stats avail on the number of expats returning home?

[Kenny202]

Just wondering if there were any available figures on the number of expats bailing and heading home after the change in the retirement laws earlier this year? I don't know if they could even measure such a thing until a year has passed....ie new OA applications this year vs last. Number of extensions this years vs last. I saw something in the headlines about European tourism well down, Chinese tourists down 8% on this

time last year which is huge. All other domestic indicators seem to be going south (Exports etc) so who knows, expats might become valued again ????

 

I hear a lot of people on here saying if you don't have the cash you shouldn't be here. But I know quite a few blokes been here for years. Invested in homes, cars, everything else needed to live here, have families...sometimes extended families and had quite enough to live under the old rules, whist not having the ready cash to meet the new financial requirements. Brits particularly seem to be suffering with the devaluation of the pound and strong baht. Like the perfect storm. 

 

I'm up in Isaan and the failing economy is palpable. Businesses every where closing down. Recently down in Bkk and never seen so many freelancers around. I can remember Soi 4 they would congregate outside Nana hotel only. Now they line the street both sides from start to finish, They were all complaining. Restaurants, good restaurants too empty. It's like "the Emperors new clothes" story. Somethings gotta give soon

 

Edited June 28, 2019 by Kenny202

[Puchaiyank]

The emperor retained his clothes employing 250 mercenaries to ensure his clothes did not get removed...

 

Those arguing for removal of his clothes are in danger of being removed themselves...????

[Small Joke]

If blokes can hang in there, somehow, until the greatest economic world collapse in history happens (it is so tantalizingly close) and assuming China don't invade or the Thais don't kick out the U.S. base here, then immigration will be doing some reassessment, because tourism will fall off a cliff, for at least a decade. We can only hope.

[scotinsiam]

I can give you my personal circumstance and that of my many friends who visit. I am a single guy from the UK now 55 who has been living here since 2005 as non resident in the UK for tax.

When I came visas were no problem, Immigration was easy currency rate was very good etc. I worked 5 weeks in Saudi and 5 weeks off in Thailand with travel to neighboring countries during my time off.

All was good ???? I started getting retirement extensions when I became 50 (800k method) I have never overstayed or had any run ins with the authorities.

I have owned vehicles and several condos in my own name - I have no money issues. 

 

Fast forward to today, Of the large group of friends I regularly meet, I estimate about 20 of them come to Thailand every year for 2 to 3 months and spend a lot of money on their holiday (some have been coming here for over 30 years) This year I know only about 4 or 5 guys are coming and not for the long 2 or 3 month breaks.

 

I myself have grown tired of the constantly changing goal posts with immigration, the needless and ever changing paperwork, the corruption, the political uncertainty, the poor attitude to foreigners now and a lot of other small things are beginning to wear me down also.

 

So I have quietly sold up - almost everything has now been sold and the majority of the proceeds sent to my Singapore bank. I am off to Vietnam where I also worked in the oil business and know it well. I have already spend many long periods there and it is a breath of fresh air to be smiled at and spoken to by the locals as you walk on the beach in the morning.

 

I will apply online for my Vietnam visa probably next week - then it's over for me unfortunately, no more LOS apart from the occasional weekend perhaps as my current retirement extension has 10 months left, it's been fun - but its over.

 

I am just a normal guy so wont show up in any figures anywhere but my 1 1/2 - 2 million or so I spent here annually is gone. The apartment complex I currently rent in has lost dozens of westerners in the past months who have also just silently gone.

 

[Kinnock]

I can't think of a way to get stats like that by nationality - perhaps the in-depth analysis of the TM6 forms that Immigration diligently performs would give us an answer?

 

On a more serious note - there is an annual ex-pat survey done by one of the relocation companies (can't remember which one .... Sant Fe I think), and if you complete their survey they send you a copy of their report.

[blackcab]

A partial answer will come when people renew their extensions of stay. The application number is normally handwritten next to the stamp. The numbers are sequential, and as people normally renew their extensions at roughly yearly intervals you will be able to see how many applications for the same type of extension were received by the same office each year.

 

For me, I have an extension of stay based on working, from Chaeng Wattana in Bangkok. My extension is due in April, and the numbers in my passport are:

 

46xx/58

46xx/59

54xx/60

47xx/61

39xx/62

 

There's not enough data there to draw any sort of conclusion really. The figures for marriage and retirement extensions might well show a different story.

[Kenny202]

I can give you my personal circumstance and that of my many friends who visit. I am a single guy from the UK now 55 who has been living here since 2005 as non resident in the UK for tax.
When I came visas were no problem, Immigration was easy currency rate was very good etc. I worked 5 weeks in Saudi and 5 weeks off in Thailand with travel to neighboring countries during my time off.
All was good [emoji846] I started getting retirement extensions when I became 50 (800k method) I have never overstayed or had any run ins with the authorities.
I have owned vehicles and several condos in my own name - I have no money issues. 
 
Fast forward to today, Of the large group of friends I regularly meet, I estimate about 20 of them come to Thailand every year for 2 to 3 months and spend a lot of money on their holiday (some have been coming here for over 30 years) This year I know only about 4 or 5 guys are coming and not for the long 2 or 3 month breaks.
 
I myself have grown tired of the constantly changing goal posts with immigration, the needless and ever changing paperwork, the corruption, the political uncertainty, the poor attitude to foreigners now and a lot of other small things are beginning to wear me down also.
 
So I have quietly sold up - almost everything has now been sold and the majority of the proceeds sent to my Singapore bank. I am off to Vietnam where I also worked in the oil business and know it well. I have already spend many long periods there and it is a breath of fresh air to be smiled at and spoken to by the locals as you walk on the beach in the morning.
 
I will apply online for my Vietnam visa probably next week - then it's over for me unfortunately, no more LOS apart from the occasional weekend perhaps as my current retirement extension has 10 months left, it's been fun - but its over.
 
I am just a normal guy so wont show up in any figures anywhere but my 1 1/2 - 2 million or so I spent here annually is gone. The apartment complex I currently rent in has lost dozens of westerners in the past months who have also just silently gone.
 

I too love the Vietnamese people and the country. Was my initial choice of place to live although I met a Thai girl. The thought (and expense) of getting rid of everything is daunting. I have heard of many guys going to Vietnam but never heard any details of visa situation. Are there one year visas available or retirement visas?

Sent from my SM-J730GM using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[bunta71]

You can add my name to the list of those fed up and moving on. At age 66, I believe I will be making my own decisions as to where I keep my money and just how much insurance I maintain. I am kinda independent in my old age. After many years of compiling unnecessary paperwork, I will go back to the Big Island of Hawaii and relax a bit. I will miss being surrounded by beautiful Thai ladies every day. Love Hawaii but the percentage of pretty ladies to interact with is dismal... 

[arithai12]

19 hours ago, scotinsiam said:

I myself have grown tired of the constantly changing goal posts with immigration

If you are on retirement via the 800k method, I am not aware that anything has changed except the spending profile which I am sure does not bother you seeing as money is no issue.

 

Other than that, it was good to hear your account, Vietnam is not for me but I wish you good many years there.

[arithai12]

19 hours ago, blackcab said:

A partial answer will come when people renew their extensions of stay. The application number is normally handwritten next to the stamp. The numbers are sequential, and as people normally renew their extensions at roughly yearly intervals you will be able to see how many applications for the same type of extension were received by the same office each year.

 

Good idea. My extensions for retirement are done in January, too early in the year to be significant. But others who do them in the last part of the year should be able to see a more consolidated statistics.

[RBOP]

Its a bit of paperwork and quite annoying but Thailand still far better living conditions compared to its neighbours. Prices are creeping up but not as expensive as back back home.   I'm staying. 

 

Vietnam still has too many UXOs for beach exploring to my liking. 

Edited June 29, 2019 by RBOP

[4MyEgo]

20 hours ago, scotinsiam said:

I myself have grown tired of the constantly changing goal posts with immigration, the needless and ever changing paperwork, the corruption, the political uncertainty, the poor attitude to foreigners now and a lot of other small things are beginning to wear me down also

Immigration has never worried me in the 4 years I have lived here as the wife does the paperwork, and yes we do pay the corruption IO's if she forgot to take some photos or something like that, later sending them to him via LINE, I suppose they all have to eat, as do the cops when they pretend that they are doing their jobs at road blocks collecting their chicken feed, really, as for political uncertainty, sure.

 

What has irked me of late is the out of control back burning of rice and sugar cane fields, the last one seemed to go on for much longer than other years and is literally choking us out of here for 2-3 months a year, add to that the villagers burning their rubbish as they don't want to get a rubbish truck in and pay for it.

 

I could go on and on and on, but I won't, the drop in the baht vs my currency hasn't really been an issue, but as I am slowly working things out on a monthly basis and what it is costing us to live here, I seriously believe it's only a difference of around 25% per annum, i.e. the difference to live in the old country, add rent on top of that of course which would be the biggest expenditure, vs paying no rent here.

 

The above said I am close to completing my detailed analysis of what it "actually" costs us to live here in the bush with the family vs the rough cost to live back in the old country, taking into consideration what the government will provide us with when we move back, e.g. family A & B payments for having kids under 18, to give you a rough idea it's around 160,000 baht per head per annum per child.

 

Once done, I will post my analysis, because you can't put a price on fresh air, as the main reason for our exodus, if we do exit Thailand, and from my rough calculations, what the government would provide us with for kids under 18, would literally pay for the rent, as crazy as it sounds.  

 

To answer your question, I think that you would also have to ask if there are other reasons apart from your posts that farangs are also looking to exit Thailand.

 

Good luck with your move to Vietnam, sounds like it will work out as you have funds, and we all know, have funds will travel, no funds, and your stuck in the LOS ????

 

[JohnOFphon]

I was at CW Wed. The place was packed. The side where they do extensions and work visas....every seat taken and lots of people standing.

Not sure when the exodus is suppose to take place...but it wasn't this week.

Edited June 29, 2019 by JohnOFphon

[Russell17au]

I think that you need to re-word the first sentence of your opening question, Kenny202. I think it should read "How many are bailing out of Thailand for other places". I would say that there are many who could not afford to return to their home country but can afford to move to places like Vietnam, Philippines, Cambodia or Malaysia. There would be no way of knowing what the number would be that are leaving Thailand because there would be no accurate record of how many expats are in Thailand. I do know that the exports from Thailand has dropped by 5.8% plus the tourists numbers has also dropped and the Thai Baht is being artificially kept high, so I can see a further drop in exports because Thai products are getting too expensive to import. If I am forced to leave Thailand I will not be returning to Australia as the climate does not suit my injuries. I would be on continual pain killers where as with the climate here I am not on any, so I would be looking at a place with a similar climate as here.

[TonyFernandez]

If there was truly an exodus of expats leaving the country, reduced foreign investment or a decline of the economy in general, surely the Thai Bath would be declining.  But in fact, the THB has been strengthening against all major currencies for a couple of years already.

[TonyFernandez]

12 minutes ago, Russell17au said:

I think that you need to re-word the first sentence of your opening question, Kenny202. I think it should read "How many are bailing out of Thailand for other places". I would say that there are many who could not afford to return to their home country but can afford to move to places like Vietnam, Philippines, Cambodia or Malaysia. There would be no way of knowing what the number would be that are leaving Thailand because there would be no accurate record of how many expats are in Thailand. I do know that the exports from Thailand has dropped by 5.8% plus the tourists numbers has also dropped and the Thai Baht is being artificially kept high, so I can see a further drop in exports because Thai products are getting too expensive to import. If I am forced to leave Thailand I will not be returning to Australia as the climate does not suit my injuries. I would be on continual pain killers where as with the climate here I am not on any, so I would be looking at a place with a similar climate as here.

Thailand is an export-driven country and has no motivation to keep the THB artificially high. 

[dotpoom]

I'm here 19 years (800,000 in the bank)...nothing has changed for me except the exchange rate. Even with that drop it's still a lot cheaper for me to live here than back home.

  

[Toany]

I'm here 19 years (800,000 in the bank)...nothing has changed for me except the exchange rate. Even with that drop it's still a lot cheaper for me to live here than back home.
  

I'm similar to you, until they asked me to file a TM30 twice a week

In Thailand goal posts have wheels

[Kurtf]

I too am completely fed up with the moving goal posts. I feel unwelcome here now. After living here 7 years I am ready to return to my home country. But the problem is with the declining economy in Thailand, I am finding it almost impossible to sell the house I built and without that happening, I am financially STUCK here.

Edited June 29, 2019 by Kurtf
Mis spelled word.

[murraynz]

21 hours ago, bunta71 said:

You can add my name to the list of those fed up and moving on. At age 66, I believe I will be making my own decisions as to where I keep my money and just how much insurance I maintain. I am kinda independent in my old age. After many years of compiling unnecessary paperwork, I will go back to the Big Island of Hawaii and relax a bit. I will miss being surrounded by beautiful Thai ladies every day. Love Hawaii but the percentage of pretty ladies to interact with is dismal... 

Hawaii...wow, thats a HUGE change from thailand...  seeing  so many fat ladies on the beaches, was a real eye opener for me...but the huge cost of everything, and 'expected' tipping, was unbearable for me...  

while there are many problems in thailand...i still think its hard to beat, for expats.

[Jingthing]

32 minutes ago, Kurtf said:

I too am completely fed up with the moving goal posts. I feel unwelcome here now. After living here 7 years I am ready to return to my home country. But the problem is with the declining economy in Thailand, I am finding it almost impossible to sell the house I built and without that happening, I am financially STUCK here.

Yeah that's fairly typical. People that say if you're not happy with how things have changed here, shut your piehole and just leave fail to appreciated for many of us it just ain't that easy. 

[Vacuum]

22 hours ago, bunta71 said:

You can add my name to the list of those fed up and moving on. At age 66, I believe I will be making my own decisions as to where I keep my money and just how much insurance I maintain. I am kinda independent in my old age. After many years of compiling unnecessary paperwork, I will go back to the Big Island of Hawaii and relax a bit. I will miss being surrounded by beautiful Thai ladies every day. Love Hawaii but the percentage of pretty ladies to interact with is dismal... 

Could age have something to do with it?

[Caine]

3 hours ago, RBOP said:

Its a bit of paperwork and quite annoying but Thailand still far better living conditions compared to its neighbours. Prices are creeping up but not as expensive as back back home.   I'm staying. 

 

Vietnam still has too many UXOs for beach exploring to my liking. 

Don’t know where you call home but I can confirm Thailand has now become far more expensive than the U.K. unless you live in a shithole hut somewhere in Issan of course 

[scottiejohn]

3 minutes ago, Caine said:

I can confirm Thailand has now become far more expensive than the U.K

Rather than saying you can "confirm" your outlandish statement how about proving it by giving like for like comparisons.

[NCC1701A]

8 minutes ago, Caine said:

Don’t know where you call home but I can confirm Thailand has now become far more expensive than the U.K. unless you live in a shithole hut somewhere in Issan of course  

so in other words 80% of Thailand is cheaper than the UK.

[madmen]

On 6/28/2019 at 12:51 PM, Kenny202 said:

. But I know quite a few blokes been here for years. Invested in homes, cars, everything else needed to live here, have families...sometimes extended families and had quite enough to live under the old rules, whist not having the ready cash to meet the new financial requirements

Something doesn't add up here Kenny. They are deeply vested in Thailand yet cant afford 20k a year for an agent?

[Toany]

Something doesn't add up here Kenny. They are deeply vested in Thailand yet cant afford 20k a year for an agent?

Sorry, it goes against the grain for me to join in with the corruption here. It is not about affording it

In Thailand goal posts have wheels

[madmen]

1 hour ago, Kurtf said:

I too am completely fed up with the moving goal posts. I feel unwelcome here now. After living here 7 years I am ready to return to my home country. But the problem is with the declining economy in Thailand, I am finding it almost impossible to sell the house I built and without that happening, I am financially STUCK here.

Sounds like its in a village? "sell the house I built"

Nothing to do with economy and everything to do with location

[madmen]

1 minute ago, Toany said:

Sorry, it goes against the grain for me to join in with the corruption here. It is not about affording it

In Thailand goal posts have wheels
 

So walk away from house car kids and wife because of misguided moral compass (family comes first !!!). I bet your family is proud you chose to run. Thats the post I was replying to but if your single with suitcase by the door then have a good trip

[Old Croc]

15 minutes ago, Caine said:

Don’t know where you call home but I can confirm Thailand has now become far more expensive than the U.K. unless you live in a shithole hut somewhere in Issan of course 

No credibility.

You don't live in Thailand (possibly never even visited) and virtually every post you do is an anti Thailand troll.