Peace hopes dimmed by Prayut’s return

[webfact]

Peace hopes dimmed by Prayut’s return

By RUNGRAWEE CHALERMSRIPINYORAT 
SPECIAL TO THE NATION

 

 

THREE MONTHS after disputed elections, the dust has almost settled. We now know the new government will be led by General Prayut Chan-o-cha, who has ruled with an iron fist for the past five years after staging a military coup in 2014.

 

What does this mean for people in the deep South, who have suffered violent conflict for the past 15 years? 

 

Not long after the coup, I remember Malay-Muslims saying it was an opportune time for peace talks with the government. They believed that power in Thailand lay in the hands of the traditional elite, who provided tacit support for the post-coup military government. Hence, negotiations under a military regime had more chance of success. 

 

Needless to say they have been proven wrong. The Kuala Lumpur-facilitated peace talks, initiated by the Yingluck Shinawatra government and resumed under Prayut’s leadership, failed to achieve any tangible results. A year was lost to a dispute over whether or not the MARA Patani, a newly established umbrella organisation of separatist groups, should be mentioned in the terms of reference. The Thai government refused to officially acknowledge that MARA Patani was its dialogue partner, fearing that would be tantamount to recognising the existence of organised armed groups and risk attracting international intervention. It insisted on using a vague term, phuhentangchak rat, or people with different views from the state. 

 

At the same time, MARA Patani faced serious questions over its ability to control militants and also over the mandate of several Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) members who joined the grouping. The BRN clarified it was not involved in the military-led peace talks. However, it later expressed readiness to talk to the Thai government, provided its preconditions were heeded – most importantly the involvement of international observers. That demand fell on deaf ears, as the junta again feared such a step would internationalise the conflict and open the door to secession. 

 

After Mara Patani made a tactical compromise and agreed to accept the new terms of reference without change in September 2016, the talks were limited to the establishment of “safety zones” in some districts. The joint technical team finished drafting the safety-zone framework and implementation plan in early 2018. This plan, designated for Narathiwat’s Joh I Rong district as a pilot project, failed after Thai authorities refused to endorse the agreement reached by the technical team. The repeated foot-dragging has raised suspicions over the junta’s commitment to a peaceful negotiated settlement. 

 

In late 2018, Malaysia’s political landscape shifted dramatically. Mahathir Mohamad returned as premier, prompting changes in the facilitator and the composition of dialogue teams on both sides. Abdul Rahim Noor, a former Malaysian police chief, was appointed as new facilitator, followed by the appointment of General UdomchaiThammasarorat – a former southern commander and currently an appointed senator – as the new head of the Thai dialogue team. Udomchai’s appointment was not well received by MARA Patani. 

 

Given that the southern policy continues to be in the hands of the same cliques, it is hard to take an optimistic view of conflict resolution in the deep South. 

 

At the heart of the conflict is the question of local people’s power to manage their own affairs according to their way of life. Some use the term “right to self-determination”, which has become controversial, as it is considered a euphemism for independence. In reality, self-determination can be either “internal” or “external”. It could range from some degree of autonomy, to outright secession. The latter is not a viable option under the Thai Constitution, which says the Kingdom is indivisible. 

 

Prayut’s track record shows he has no intention to discuss any political grievances in the South or give any concessions. His approach is to focus on quelling the violence, while maintaining the status quo. 

 

Opinion is divided on whether the “pro-democracy” camp, which comprises seven anti-junta political parties, would perform better in this matter. Most of them have campaigned on political platforms starkly different from the previous government’s approach. They advocate political as opposed to military means to resolve the conflict, and for decentralisation, particularly in the fields of culture and education. Newcomer Future Forward Party has proposed reducing the military presence in the South, while Prachachart, the only party led by a Malay Muslim with a strong base in the South, has promoted multiculturalism and recognition of different ethnic identities. However, these proposed policies won’t be implemented as long as the military-led government remains in power. 

 

The coup leaders have transformed into a purported “democratic” government via one of the most controversial elections in Thai history. The 2017 Constitution, drafted by a junta-appointed committee and passed by a tightly controlled referendum, has institutionalised a distorted electoral and parliamentary system, which give coup leaders-turned-politicians a huge advantage over opposing parties. In other words, authoritarianism has been embedded in the political system. One of the most outrageous constitutional clauses enabled the 250-member Senate, appointed by the coup leaders, to vote alongside the 500 lower house MPs in the selection of the prime minister. 

 

The political system has been so distorted that it cannot fairly represent the will of the people. If one counts popular votes for the pro-junta and anti-junta parties nationwide as well as in the deep South, there is no doubt that the victory belongs to the pro-democracy camp. 

 

The military’s conventional approach to tackling the southern conflict has been a failure. A new way of thinking will emerge only if a more genuinely democratic electoral and parliamentary system begins to function.

--------------------------------

Rungrawee Chalermsripinyorat is a former Regional Desk journalist at The Nation and currently a PhD candidate at the Australian National University.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/opinion/30372021

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2019-07-01

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[Lungstib]

Prayuth has pledged to serve the nation, religion and monarch. His opinion of nation almost certainly doesn't include the Muslims of the far south and by religion can only mean this strange Thai version of Buddhism. Doesn't bode well for the southerners does it? The new constitution of course does very little to promote the rights of the people and does nothing to prevent abuses by the government. In fact nothing like it should be. Don't expect a solution for the south under these circumstances.

[sammieuk1]

All points on the compass are dimmed its like he's never gone away ????

[spidermike007]

The selection of Prayuth, was the worst thing to happen to this nation in a very long time.

 

He is incompetent beyond imagination, completely lacks any sort of vision for the future of the nation, cares not one iota about the environment, air quality, the rivers and the sea, and could not possibly be the slightest bit concerned about the well being of the masses.

 

Traffic safety, and beefing up the highway patrol, and training them to do actual safety patrols, is not going to happen with him in power. He does not care that Thailand has a staggering death rate. 

 

Face it. His primary duty is to protect the elite, those in power (the army and the police), those that are super wealthy, and those that are well connected. All else is rather irrelevant to him. 

 

Thailand must figure out a way to get rid of the army. It is the only way for this nation to progress. They are a highly corrosive factor, and need to be pushed out of the way. 

[bluesofa]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

Peace hopes dimmed by Prayut’s return

Will the journalist be in for attitude adjustment, or won't they spot the irony in the headline?

[dcnx]

Anyone seen the clip of him at the summit meeting where he’s standing around everyone else looking like a complete idiot? It’s funny.

 

 

[yellowboat]

Just one more thing cha cha and cronies will ruin.  They have not the diplomatic skills to change things for the better. The Malaysians most assuredly know this, and they are shining as they have casted off a corrupt government.  Thailand has not.  Malaysia will not focus on this as it will be a waste of time.  cha cha will pen stroke some more infrastructure deals for which he will demand praise. 

[Hayduke]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

Peace hopes dimmed by Prayut’s return

 

Prayut has greatly dimmed just about everything a free Thailand could hope for. But the job isn't done yet and....he won't be happy until he's managed to completely strangle any hope for a free country. It's all very sad.

 

 

 

Edited July 1, 2019 by Hayduke

[leeneeds]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

will be led by General Prayut Chan-o-cha, who has ruled with an iron fist for the past five years

"An oppressive government is more to be feared than a tiger"

 

Confucius,

[phantomfiddler]

For someone who promised to fight corruption, he certainly has produced a highly negative result ????

[legend49]

6 hours ago, dcnx said:

Anyone seen the clip of him at the summit meeting where he’s standing around everyone else looking like a complete idiot? It’s funny.

 

 

The group photo is better he is in the back row to the right ; eyes closed napping; lol.

[TKDfella]

6 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

The selection of Prayuth, was the worst thing to happen to this nation in a very long time.

 

He is incompetent beyond imagination, completely lacks any sort of vision for the future of the nation, cares not one iota about the environment, air quality, the rivers and the sea, and could not possibly be the slightest bit concerned about the well being of the masses.

 

Traffic safety, and beefing up the highway patrol, and training them to do actual safety patrols, is not going to happen with him in power. He does not care that Thailand has a staggering death rate. 

 

Face it. His primary duty is to protect the elite, those in power (the army and the police), those that are super wealthy, and those that are well connected. All else is rather irrelevant to him. 

 

Thailand must figure out a way to get rid of the army. It is the only way for this nation to progress. They are a highly corrosive factor, and need to be pushed out of the way. 

Nest stop...PM for life...ha!

[Srikcir]

The article is full of historical misstatements, omissions and inaccuracies.

But the underlying theme is correct. Prayut for five years did not provide any pathway for the Muslim insurgency to a peaceful resolution and did no better than all previous governments except Yingluck whose peace efforts were disrupted by anti-government elements. 

• The lack of progress stems from the fact that the government has introduced no meaningful policy changes for the Malay-speaking southern border provinces  http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/opinion/30356233

 

Mostly I believe that Prayut himself is responsible for inconsistent and/or contradictory goals that belied the trust necessary in negotiations to reach some resolve, especially with the BRN.

 

• The Army protecting a culture of impunity against human rights violations reveals its inability to change even itself to meet challenges of the insurgency.  http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/opinion/30371436
• The junta paid lip service to the long-standing argument that counter-insurgency work is political, not military -  former prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva.  http://www.nationmultimedia.com/news/national/30315994  
• An academic has warned that in order to secure safe zones for local people, the authorities must be sincere in their peace talks and negotiations with insurgent groups.  http://www.nationmultimedia.com/news/national/30318377

• Thai people care little about the Patani Malay feeling of mistrust and resentment towards the state and demonstrate little interest in understanding the historical root causes of that mistrust. http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/opinion/30321142
   

Before the 2019 elections, "Generally, people in the deep south are enthusiastic from all sides because they will feel that they can gain justice through democracy," - Samart Thongfhua, a political analyst at Prince of Songkla University in Pattani.  

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1090988-in-thailands-restive-deep-south-election-stirs-rare-enthusiasm/?utm_source=newsletter-20190323-0806&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=news&_fromLogin=1

The elections did not produce democracy with the military still in firm control.

 

Prayut has talked the talk but has not walked the walk (aka “actions speak louder than words” and “practice what you preach.”):

• In January 2019 The government's peace negotiation team said it would take all proposals into consideration, including an idea for a special administrative status for the deep South. http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/national/30362175 Where did that go?
• In an attempt to calm fears about the security situation in the deep South, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha issued a statement [2019-01-22] urging the public not to lose faith in his government’s efforts to bring an end to the conflict in this historically contested region. http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/national/30362692

So where does all this stand for the future?

• A political solution will require the government to recognise the political nature of the conflict rather than casting it as a crime wave requiring harsh repression. A meaningful start to this would be appointing a ministerial-level, non-military agency to handle the peace process. http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/opinion/30362759

Faith & Hope is not a strategy nor can it be a goal.

 

 

[hotchilli]

20 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Face it. His primary duty is to protect the elite, those in power (the army and the police), those that are super wealthy, and those that are well connected. All else is rather irrelevant to him. 

Another 5 years of putting faces in places to maintain the way things are now.

The only way things will change down south is if things start to go Bang in Bangkok... that might make a few people decide to start to talk again!

[mikebell]

22 hours ago, webfact said:

However, these proposed policies won’t be implemented as long as the military-led government remains in power. 

It is their raison d'etre.  There is no threat from invasion by neighbouring countries (except China who does by business takeover).  All the military hardware is for use on Thais.

[TKDfella]

25 minutes ago, mikebell said:

It is their raison d'etre.  There is no threat from invasion by neighbouring countries (except China who does by business takeover).  All the military hardware is for use on Thais.

And the recently purchased submarines are for those trying to escape by boat, Ha!

[Reigntax]

22 hours ago, dcnx said:

Anyone seen the clip of him at the summit meeting where he’s standing around everyone else looking like a complete idiot? It’s funny.

 

 

He just looks normal. He always looks like an idiot.

[sawadee1947]

On 7/1/2019 at 6:01 AM, spidermike007 said:

need to be pushed out of the way. 

That's the point. How Thai population shall get rid of a dictatorship? 

By civil war? Against bullits and tanks? 

Or just wait for the next election? And the next election? And the next...? 

Curious to read your opinion

[Nowisee]

 

 

44 minutes ago, sawadee1947 said:

That's the point. How Thai population shall get rid of a dictatorship? 

By civil war? Against bullits and tanks? 

Or just wait for the next election? And the next election? And the next...? 

Curious to read your opinion

They are good at just waiting.  

[Isaanbiker]

5 hours ago, TKDfella said:

And the recently purchased submarines are for those trying to escape by boat, Ha!

For the newly opened CTWCSSL/- Colombia-Thailand"s World Class Standard Submarines Line.