Thai Baht Hits New Nine-year High

[Naam]

It's certainly relevant to anyone making atm withdrawals from overseas accounts. About 60% of my income enters the LOS that way..

****

agreed! but why not transferring once in a while instead of using an ATM?

I like the whirring sound that the atm makes. brrrrrrrrrrrrr chuk chuk.... beep beep beep beep....

:D

[Naam]

USD/THB Spot FOREX 31,74 06.26 GMT OFFSHORE

[Old Man River]

That link looks like offshore rates.

I think I found it in the yahoo finance exchange rate.

Thanks guys.

If you are doing your taxes and need onshore THB info from the BOT and can't access it, PM me and I will send you the info you request.

[cclub75]

USD/THB Spot FOREX 31,74 06.26 GMT OFFSHORE

:D

Everything is under control.... Exports are surging. Exporters are selling their USD. And "BOT does not intervene on the market". AKA = la vie est belle.

I guess Doctor Tarisa is going to have a nervous breakdown. Or she might be too busy... by buying USD... increasing USD reserve... that is loosing value day after day.

She is a real winner.

Anyway. Today's mess is the result of FED statement last night. They only changed their "bias". Which leave the door opened for a decrease of rate.

Therefore, it's easy to forecast what would happen if they really reduce rates...

Edited March 22, 2007 by cclub75

[Jai Dee]

Economic Minister inform the national economic situation to PM

High ranking economic officials this morning up dated the Prime Minister regarding the current economic situation. At the same time Deputy Prime Minister and Industry Minister Kosit Panpiemras (โฆสิต ปั้นเปี่ยมรัษฎ์) had asked for discussion with the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) regarding ways to control the strong baht crisis.

Mr. Kosit says he admits the strengthening of the baht currently affects the export sector; however, he says the situation is encountered by many countries worldwide and hope that the private sector understands the situation.

On Tuesday (March 27), Mr. Kosit will discuss with FTI to seek solutions for the export sector.

Mr. Kosit says the economic situation is not that severe, and there is no need to issue additional measures at this moment.

This morning, Finance Ministers and the Permanent Secretary of the Council of National Economic and Social Development meet with the premier to inform the situation of the baht at the Government House.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 23 March 2007

[Jai Dee]

PM says DPM Kosit will discuss measures to help exporters while BOT and Finance Ministry will look into currency situation

Deputy Prime Minister and Industry Minister Kosit Panpiemras led a group of economic ministers to discuss the appreciation of Thai baht with Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont this morning (Mar 23) at Thai Khu Fah Building, Government House.

Finance Minister Chalongphob Sussangkarn, Natural Resources and Environment Minister Kasem Sanitwong Na Ayutthaya, and National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) Secretary-General Ampon Kittiampon attended the meeting. The meeting discussed the economic situation in Thailand, and it took about one hour.

Following the meeting, Prime Minister Surayud said Mr. Kosit has proposed a strategy to propel the economy and he will explain it to the general public once again. Gen. Surayud said the meeting also covered the works of the state sector in the regional and local areas.

The Prime Minister said the Bank of Thailand and the Ministry of Finance will handle the strengthening of Thailand. He said both agencies are closely monitoring the currency situation, and Finance Minister Chalongphob will explain this issue again.

Gen. Surayud said the meeting did not talk about the details of the ways to help Thai exporters, but Mr. Kosit will reveal the measures to help them.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 23 March 2007

[John K]

Economic Minister inform the national economic situation to PM

High ranking economic officials this morning up dated the Prime Minister regarding the current economic situation. At the same time Deputy Prime Minister and Industry Minister Kosit Panpiemras (โฆสิต ปั้นเปี่ยมรัษฎ์) had asked for discussion with the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) regarding ways to control the strong baht crisis.

Mr. Kosit says he admits the strengthening of the baht currently affects the export sector; however, he says the situation is encountered by many countries worldwide and hope that the private sector understands the situation.

On Tuesday (March 27), Mr. Kosit will discuss with FTI to seek solutions for the export sector.

Mr. Kosit says the economic situation is not that severe, and there is no need to issue additional measures at this moment.

This morning, Finance Ministers and the Permanent Secretary of the Council of National Economic and Social Development meet with the premier to inform the situation of the baht at the Government House.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 23 March 2007

General translation:

We have no idea what we are doing.. We hope you understand. It’s not our fault, it is all the other currencies doing this to us.

[cclub75]

We have no idea what we are doing.. We hope you understand. It’s not our fault, it is all the other currencies doing this to us.

You could add :

-"We said in december that USD under 35 would be the end of the world (for us).

-"We said that it would hurt our exports

-"We said that speculators were guilty

-"Now we are at 34 or 32 or even 31, with dual rates we don't even know

-"As exporters, we are selling USD, contributing to the increase of THB (mumy Tarisa of the BOT discovered us).

-"And exports surged indeed in december, january.

-"So now, what could we do and say in order to continue to look... smart and important ?

[teej]

USD/THB Spot FOREX 31,74 06.26 GMT OFFSHORE

Go baht bo!!!!!!!! I love it!

[peter991]

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is at at 15 year high against the US Dollar (USD) with 1.00 AUD = 0.806246 USD. Can't say the same thing about the Thai Baht (THB). That's dropped from 31 baht to the AUD 6 months ago to today's effort: 1.00 AUD = 25.6743 THB.

Peter

[marquess]

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is at at 15 year high against the US Dollar (USD) with 1.00 AUD = 0.806246 USD. Can't say the same thing about the Thai Baht (THB). That's dropped from 31 baht to the AUD 6 months ago to today's effort: 1.00 AUD = 25.6743 THB.

Peter

In the real world yes, but I saw it today at 27.something at one of the Thai Banks, even though it has been 25 for the last few days. When are these people going to wake up?

[Heng]

Gen. Surayud said the meeting did not talk about the details of the ways to help Thai exporters, but Mr. Kosit will reveal the measures to help them.

The best way to help exporters will be to do nothing and let the strong survive and let the rest get shaken out. It'll happen anyway when they can no longer maintain the dual rate system.

[dclaryjr]

USD/THB Spot FOREX 31,74 06.26 GMT OFFSHORE

Go baht bo!!!!!!!! I love it!

I have a mortgage in baht being paid with dollars. I don't share your opinion!! :D

[bdenner]

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is at at 15 year high against the US Dollar (USD) with 1.00 AUD = 0.806246 USD. Can't say the same thing about the Thai Baht (THB). That's dropped from 31 baht to the AUD 6 months ago to today's effort: 1.00 AUD = 25.6743 THB.

Peter

In the real world yes, but I saw it today at 27.something at one of the Thai Banks, even though it has been 25 for the last few days. When are these people going to wake up?

It's not rocket science:- Use your Aus ATM card here and get the offshore rate of 25.whatever or get someone at home to Telex AUD into your Thai account and get the on shore rate of 27.whatever. I do the latter, receiver 27.6 last week.

[Jai Dee]

BOT urges dealers to buy dollars

Baht weakens amid volatile trading

The central bank urged dealers at banks to "adjust" their foreign-exchange positions, resulting in banks buying up US dollars and causing the baht to weaken against the greenback in afternoon trade yesterday, falling to 35.05 against the greenback from Thursday's close of 34.63/34.67.

A financial source said the volatility was caused by urgent letters circulated by the Thai Bankers' Association (TBA) calling on banks to "adjust the position" of their foreign-exchange portfolios, which was seen as a requirement from the central bank.

This spurred banks' demand for dollars amid strong dollar sales from exporters.

But the information was quite confusing and resulted in volatile trading, the financial source said. The baht bounced between 34.70 and 35.05 to the dollar before closing at 34.96/35.03.

Bank of Thailand (BOT) Governor Tarisa Watanagase said she met with TBA chairman Apisak Tantivorawong to discuss the baht but added that she did not know why there was demand from banks to buy dollars yesterday.

Tarisa said several rumours were circulating.

Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont yesterday said he was worried about the baht's recent appreciation against the dollar and that his government was planning to take measures to help exporters.

The dollar hit a fresh nine-and-a-half-year high of 34.65 against the US currency early yesterday, as exporters sold dollars on fears the baht would strengthen more.

"The Bank of Thailand and the Ministry of Finance are closely monitoring the situation ... we are looking to introduce measures to ease the impact on exporters," Surayud told reporters after meeting with ministers, including Deputy Prime Minister Kosit Panpiemras and Finance Minister Chalongphob Sussangkarn.

Surayud did not say what those measures could be.

Kosit said he would meet with the Federation of Thai Industries next week to discuss the impact of a firmer baht on export competitiveness and how the government could help exporters cope with the situation.

Chalongphob said the baht could weaken again if the market considered it had strengthened to a point that was above its fundamental level.

Board of Trade chairman Pramon Sutivong said a cut to the BOT's policy interest rate would help rein in the appreciation of the baht, helping it move in line with regional currencies. The lower rates would also boost investors' confidence and bring back investment.

He declined to comment on the size of the rate cut required, saying that was up to the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

Market players are divided on how large a rate cut is necessary. Some propose that the MPC make a sharp cut of 1 per cent at its next meeting, which would have a major impact, while others recommend two 50-basis-point cuts over the next two meetings.

JP Morgan, which on Thursday upgraded the Thai stock market from "neutral" to "overweight", yesterday projected the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Composite Index would rise to 770 points this year.

Adrian Mowat, the investment bank's chief strategist for Asian and emerging markets, forecast that earnings per share would rise from 4.3 per cent this year, the lowest of all emerging markets, to 11-12 per cent next year.

"Currently, the price-to-earning (P/E) ratio is 9.6. At 770, the P/E ratio will be 10.5. The market is cheap. The valuation is very inexpensive. We look ahead over 12 months and want investors to think differently about what's going on now in the Thai market," Mowat said.

However, despite an upgrade by the US-based investment bank, the market did not rise as much as many expected yesterday.

The SET closed at 677.79, climbing 0.44 per cent from Thursday in thin trade. Just Bt8.45 billion worth of shares changed hands.

Meanwhile, Democrat Party deputy secretary-general Korn Chatikavanij said cutting interest rates would not help domestic consumption.

"Cutting the rate is not enough. The government must implement measures to help people. The government must create jobs and confidence through its budget," Korn said.

Source: The Nation - 24 March 2007

[peter991]

Quick YES / NO answer please: Do I take $AUD2000 in cash with me or take that amount out of my Australian ATM card at a Thai ATM. Am I right in assuming I will get 27 baht to the AUD if I change the money in Thailand as against 25 baht to the AUD if I use my Australian ATM card -- not even factoring in the Non-CBA (Commonwealth Bank) fees?

Peter

[backflip]

The question was about AUD, not USD.

[englishoak]

No idea where the Bht is going to go and as with so many things in LOS it dosn't quite add up.

Why do I get the feeling there's a little bit more to this than the obvious. Again it's that ol LOS feeling............... I have a phrase for it similar to "Murphy's Law"

"Somchai's law" This covers everything that happens in LOS that dosnt make sense but should.

[0Mix1up]

Hmm as an Aussie should I buy USDs (AUD=.80USD) high atm?

Then hope for a correction of TBH against the USD.

Or suck it on the poor AUD to THB rate AUD=25/27 THB.

Seems more likely a correction against the USD than the AUD is possible/wanted.

Then again if there was correction would affect the AUD to THB aswell?

Getting confused now!!!!

Any ideas? Will be travelling May 07

[Jai Dee]

Kasikorn Center believes Thai Baht value will rise this week

The Kasikorn Research company believes that the Thai currency will rise to 34.70-35.20 Baht to the US dollar this week.

Kasikorn Research analysts report that currency trends may see the Thai Baht rise to 34.70-35.20 to the US dollar this week (March 26-30). The Baht may be further devalued depending on the volume of dollar trading which occured in the previous week. Factors in favor of the Baht are sales of the US dollar currency by Thai exporters.

Kasirkorn Research analysts revealed that the Thai SET index is still adjusting within narrow margins. Factors affecting the SET index include the government's economic and fiscal policy, the value of the Thai Baht, and economic reports for February. External factors influencing the stock exchange are reported to be adjustments in international exchanges, and the change in global oil price.

The Kasikorn Research company believes that the SET index will have a support value from 672-666, and a resistance value from 684-700.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 26 March 2007

[Old Man River]

Kasikorn Center believes Thai Baht value will rise this week

The Kasikorn Research company believes that the Thai currency will rise to 34.70-35.20 Baht to the US dollar this week.

Kasikorn Research analysts report that currency trends may see the Thai Baht rise to 34.70-35.20 to the US dollar this week (March 26-30). The Baht may be further devalued depending on the volume of dollar trading which occured in the previous week. Factors in favor of the Baht are sales of the US dollar currency by Thai exporters.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 26 March 2007

What?? Can anyone make heads or tails of the above? Let's see, the THB will weaken because it will weaken, and it may weaken some more next week, depending on whether it weakened the previous week, but there are factors that may make it stronger.

Actually, Kasikorn Research is pretty good, but the guy that did the translation for the PRD should be put in an inactive position, quickly.

[Jai Dee]

BoT denies it plans to issue more measures to stem baht speculation

Bank of Thailand Governor Tarisa Watanagase on Monday denied rumours that the central bank has a plan to come up with more measures to stem speculation in the baht.

“The rumours released in the money market are groundless. Our policy on supervision of the baht movement remains unchanged,” she said.

Mrs. Tarisa said the central bank had called a meeting with executives of commercial banks Monday evening because it found some banks had taken advantage of the baht movement. She said the BoT wanted to seek their cooperation to stop doing that.

She insisted the central bank would neither adopt a fixed currency exchange rate nor change a regulation governing net foreign currency holding by commercial banks.

Apisak Tantivorawong, president of the Thai Bankers’ Association, said the central bank called commercial banks to meet to assure them that the managed float currency exchange rate system would remain intact because there were rumours about a change in the system.

The central bank also sought cooperation from commercial banks not to speculate on the baht, he said.

Source: TNA - 27 March 2007