UK economy shrinks as Brexit, global worries mount: PMI

[snoop1130]

UK economy shrinks as Brexit, global worries mount: PMI

by William Schomberg

 

FILE PHOTO: A shopper pushes a trolley in a supermarket in London, Britain April 11, 2017. REUTERS/Neil Hall/File Photo

 

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain’s economy appears to have shrunk for the first time since late 2012 between April and June as worries about Brexit were compounded by global trade tensions, a closely watched survey showed on Wednesday.

 

A day after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney warned of the growing risks from a no-deal Brexit and protectionist trade policies, a gauge of Britain’s huge services industry — the IHS Markit/CIPS services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) — slipped to 50.2 in June, just above the no-growth level of 50.

 

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the PMI to remain at May’s level of 51.0.

 

Equivalent surveys for manufacturing and construction published earlier this week showed those sectors contracted in June, meaning Britain’s economy overall probably shrank by 0.1 percent in the second quarter, IHS Markit/CIPS said.

 

British gross domestic product last shrank from one quarter to another in the final three months of 2012, according to official data. The last time GDP shrank for two or more quarters in a row — the widely accepted definition of a recession — was in 2008-2009, during the global financial crisis.

 

“The latest downturn has followed a gradual deterioration in demand over the past year as Brexit-related uncertainty has increasingly exacerbated the impact of a broader global economic slowdown,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.

 

“Risks also remain skewed to the downside as sentiment about the year ahead is worryingly subdued, suggesting the third quarter could see businesses continue to struggle.”

 

British government bond yields fell further after the survey, with the yield on 10-year gilts hitting its lowest level since the months after the 2016 Brexit referendum.

 

CURVE INVERSION

 

Investors see more chance of a cut to British interest rates after Carney’s speech on Tuesday, in which he said the economy might need more support to cope with the shock of a no-deal Brexit or an escalation of global trade tensions.

 

The yield curve between two- and five-year British government bonds inverted for the first time since 2008 on Wednesday, suggesting investors see a risk of recession.

 

The BoE says Britain’s economy probably flatlined in the second quarter after strong growth early in the year when companies were rushing to get ready for the original March 29 Brexit date.

 

That deadline has since been pushed back to Oct. 31.

 

Andrew Wishart, an economist with consultancy Capital Economics, said the pre-March 29 rush accounted for some of the second-quarter weakness.

 

“But the fact the surveys have not picked up toward the end of the quarter, and global manufacturing is slowing, means the risk is that the economy fails to bounce back in the third quarter,” he added.

 

Many businesses are alarmed by the prospect of a no-deal Brexit, something both candidates to replace Theresa May as prime minister have said they are prepared to do if necessary.

 

Williamson said the weak reading of Britain’s economy should put pressure on the Bank of England to add stimulus.

 

“For policymakers to not loosen policy with the all-sector PMI at its current level would be unprecedented in the survey’s two-decade history,” he said.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-07-03

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[JohnSmithKalk]

 No-deal Brexit can have adverse affect on various sectors of UK such as food and healthcare, importing goods from the EU, home prices may rise, education, transport and trade will get affected severely significantly affecting UK economy as a whole. The UK economy will suffer a lot affecting UK stock market as well. It will take time to boom up once again as far as I can see.

[dutchdude]

watch out folks, a bankdirector cries Wolf

[bristolboy]

3 minutes ago, dutchdude said:

watch out folks, a bankdirector cries Wolf

So when the numbers look good then they're factual. When they're bad, not so much.

[potless]

Carney has little credibility. He has been singing the same negative songs for a long time and will carry on doing so until he gets a prediction right. Even a blind pig finds an acorn sometimes, but he is still looking.

[richard10365]

The current list of tariffs published on 2 July, 2019 by the World Trade Organization. I can't believe the UK let their citizens vote on Brexit. I bet most people can't even read this document. If they can, they would have voted not to leave. 

Edited July 3, 2019 by richard10365

[Brigand]

Project Fear at it again.

[elliss]

     Fear , i know the feeling ,  gbp @38 , and falling fast.. Project Fact .

[champers]

No sweat. 160,000 Tories will choose the PM, everyone will piss off for their 6 week holidays, then we have the party conferences, then Brexit will get a look in ...  maybe.

 

[nauseus]

2 hours ago, elliss said:

     Fear , i know the feeling ,  gbp @38 , and falling fast.. Project Fact .

Well before you all get too excited:

 

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/deutsche-bank-restructuring-to-cost-up-to-56-billion-source-1914387

 

Now of Deutsche Bank goes....it all goes. 

[tebee]

and we are going to lose our existing trade deals on brexiting 

 

 

[arithai12]

6 hours ago, dutchdude said:

watch out folks, a bankdirector cries Wolf

Actually the article mentions several economists and economical indicators, but it must be all fake news as proven by the strong GBP rates and all the industries and companies rushing to establish new branches in the UK.

[nkg]

4 hours ago, richard10365 said:

The current list of tariffs published on 2 July, 2019 by the World Trade Organization. I can't believe the UK let their citizens vote on Brexit. I bet most people can't even read this document. If they can, they would have voted not to leave. 

 

Why don't you give us a summary of this 256 page document? Please reference some of data within the document in your summary. I always enjoy a technical analysis of WTO tariff figures, I'm sure you'll be happy to provide one.

 

Or did you just link to a "big complicated pdf file" that you haven't actually read yourself?

[Chelseafan]

5 hours ago, richard10365 said:

The current list of tariffs published on 2 July, 2019 by the World Trade Organization. I can't believe the UK let their citizens vote on Brexit. I bet most people can't even read this document. If they can, they would have voted not to leave. 

Can't WTO tariffs be set independently by each country on the basis they give the same tariff to each country they trade with?

For example the UK could set 0% tariff on imported orange juice from Brazil but would also have to ensure that orange juice from USA also attracted 0%

 

 

Edited July 3, 2019 by Chelseafan

[beautifulthailand99]

6 hours ago, Brigand said:

Project Fear at it again.

No arguments  , just empty slogans as we slip into the obscurity and economic decline. Pathetic.

[Jip99]

3 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

No arguments  , just empty slogans as we slip into the obscurity and economic decline. Pathetic.

 

 

Your negative comments are duly noted..

 

 

 

......and ignored.

[beautifulthailand99]

4 hours ago, tebee said:

and we are going to lose our existing trade deals on brexiting 

 

 

At least some middle class Thais might get chance to holiday in the UK and realise that not all Brits are tattooed, beer swilling  loud mouth whoring yobs. #letslookatsome positives

[jesimps]

10 hours ago, richard10365 said:

The current list of tariffs published on 2 July, 2019 by the World Trade Organization. I can't believe the UK let their citizens vote on Brexit. I bet most people can't even read this document. If they can, they would have voted not to leave. 

The current state of the UK finances are down to the remainers causing chaos over Brexit. If they'd just accepted the democratic result of the referendum and got behind the country, then we wouldn't be in this mess. It's all down to the remain traitors and that excuse for a manager of the BoE, who isn't even British.

[soalbundy]

3 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

At least some middle class Thais might get chance to holiday in the UK and realise that not all Brits are tattooed, beer swilling  loud mouth whoring yobs. #letslookatsome positives

depends of course where they would go in the UK

[soalbundy]

6 minutes ago, jesimps said:

The current state of the UK finances are down to the remainers causing chaos over Brexit. If they'd just accepted the democratic result of the referendum and got behind the country, then we wouldn't be in this mess. It's all down to the remain traitors and that excuse for a manager of the BoE, who isn't even British.

Remain traitors ? how is it treachery to have a different opinion to a small majority group ?

[geoffbezoz]

13 hours ago, JohnSmithKalk said:

 No-deal Brexit can have adverse affect on various sectors of UK such as food and healthcare, importing goods from the EU, home prices may rise, education, transport and trade will get affected severely significantly affecting UK economy as a whole. The UK economy will suffer a lot affecting UK stock market as well. It will take time to boom up once again as far as I can see.

It could get an awful lot worse than that,  Think Greece and that is how the UK economy will be if Brexit happens without a doubt.

[baboon]

19 minutes ago, jesimps said:

The current state of the UK finances are down to the remainers causing chaos over Brexit. If they'd just accepted the democratic result of the referendum and got behind the country, then we wouldn't be in this mess. It's all down to the remain traitors and that excuse for a manager of the BoE, who isn't even British.

No. The current state of the UK finances are down to those who did not heed the warnings that this would happen. End of.

[bristolboy]

36 minutes ago, jesimps said:

The current state of the UK finances are down to the remainers causing chaos over Brexit. If they'd just accepted the democratic result of the referendum and got behind the country, then we wouldn't be in this mess. It's all down to the remain traitors and that excuse for a manager of the BoE, who isn't even British.

This is what is techically known as the "Tinkerbell Theory of Economics". According to this well supported notion, the problem isn't with inherent contradictions and problems of Brexit; it's with the lack of faith in it. If all Britons just clapped their hands and shouted "We believe" Brexit would be a huge success.

On a related note, a certain small person is reportedly on his way to Mt. Etna into which he will toss a very special article of jewelry. Destruction of the evil empire known as the EU is expected shortly thereafter. 

Edited July 4, 2019 by bristolboy

[mrfill]

1 hour ago, jesimps said:

The current state of the UK finances are down to the remainers causing chaos over Brexit. If they'd just accepted the democratic result of the referendum and got behind the country, then we wouldn't be in this mess. It's all down to the remain traitors and that excuse for a manager of the BoE, who isn't even British.

And Boris Johnson was born in New York which makes him a bit American....

[JonnyF]

1 hour ago, soalbundy said:

Remain traitors ? how is it treachery to have a different opinion to a small majority group ?

Having a different opinion is fine.

 

Trying to delay, obstruct, and ultimately overturn the result of the biggest Democratic exercise in the UK in decades whilst simultaneously causing huge economic uncertainty and damage? Not so good.

 

Time for Remainers to grow up, accept they lost and get behind the decision made by the majority of those who voted. Only then can the UK move forward.

[bristolboy]

10 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

Having a different opinion is fine.

 

Trying to delay, obstruct, and ultimately overturn the result of the biggest Democratic exercise in the UK in decades whilst simultaneously causing huge economic uncertainty and damage? Not so good.

 

Time for Remainers to grow up, accept they lost and get behind the decision made by the majority of those who voted. Only then can the UK move forward.

Because if they had stood behind the decision the EU would have backed down, given the UK what it wanted, and assisted in its own destruction? You actually believe that the reason no deal was reached was because of remainers. The EU explained over and over again in great detail why its position is as it is and why it wouldn't budge.

[JonnyF]

11 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Because if they had stood behind the decision the EU would have backed down, given the UK what it wanted, and assisted in its own destruction? You actually believe that the reason no deal was reached was because of remainers. The EU explained over and over again in great detail why its position is as it is and why it wouldn't budge.

Au contraire, my fellow Bristolian.

 

The EU would not have backed down, not because of Remainers but because they want the UK to fail, possibly as much as they wish to succeed themselves. They are the governmental equivalent of a mafia trying to kneecap one of the gang that wants out of their protectionist racket as they are terrified that if one leaves successfully then others will follow and the house of cards will tumble.

 

The problem that Remainers have caused is that they are blocking/delaying the only credible alternative to May's pathetic surrender treaty, which is leaving on WTO terms. So now we have stalemate, businesses don't know what's happening and investments are being delayed causing the economy to stagnate. Had we left on WTO terms in March as was legislated, most of the upheaval would have settled down by now and everyone would know where they stand and we could move forward. It's the uncertainty that is killing us.

[BobBKK]

I blame Cameron for taking the 'Great' out of Britain. What an arrogant fool he was.

[dcutman]

Dont believe everything you read in the news.

Way too many opinions appearing to be factual news.

[Ulic]

Remainers just don't seem to get it. If you take a no deal brexit of the table the EU has no reason to negotiate in good faith. Like a union who doesn't give their negotiators a strike mandate. Or maybe they do. They are remainers and are doing everything to cripple good faith negotiations. I just don't know.