UK may be entering full-blown recession: budget watchdog

[jesimps]

"could add 30 billion pounds ($37.4 billion) a year to public borrowing by the 2020/21 financial year, the OBR said."

 

The 30 billion pounds we save by leaving will sort out the first year's public borrowing. Typical "project fear" blx story.

[bristolboy]

7 hours ago, Loiner said:

No act of god here. It’s all entirely man made, so preventable and avoidable. Of course there will always be the EU and Remainers trying their best to throw spanner’s in the works. Economic subversion and sabotage are not god like acts.

The point was that some problems are so big you just can't adequately prepare for them. Certainly the UK could have done a much much better job of preparing. It is going to be worse than it need have been. 

[sammieuk1]

Boris cant even get the origins packing and shipping of a kipper right at the moment and is about to become PM but he will extricate us from the union on Halloween no problem cant wait to see this shambles unfold like a Harry Enfield sketch of loads of money and I'm considerably richer than you as the rich stay rich and the poor pay for it all????    

[Baerboxer]

13 hours ago, JonnyF said:

Might.

 

Could.

 

Seems to be.

 

Brexit.

 

And the punch line? Reuters.

 

Jog on.

 

 

So reassuring that the Brexiters, the TVF Brexit club, who support the likes of Boris, Hunt, Gove and Farage, all know so much more than the economic experts.

 

Their judgement in who to trust says it all!!

 

 

[Baerboxer]

5 minutes ago, sammieuk1 said:

Boris cant even get the origins packing and shipping of a kipper right at the moment and is about to become PM but he will extricate us from the union on Halloween no problem cant wait to see this shambles unfold like a Harry Enfield sketch of loads of money and I'm considerably richer than you as the rich stay rich and the poor pay for it all????    

 

Actually old boy, the rich will get richer! All part of the plan!

[bristolboy]

5 hours ago, nauseus said:

All these remainers always snap their rabid teeth around a story like this when there's actually more to be concerned about within the EU. From today:

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/18/european-central-bank-set-for-rate-cut-september-economists.html

 

QE til we die

QE til we die

We love printing funny money

QE til we die.

Actually it was the EU's decision not to allow Euro nations to print "funny money", as you call it that led to it's prolonged suffering from the Great Recession. It was only when they resort to QE, a much less powerful tool, that recovery became widespread.

Because the UK controls its own currency, it did create "funny money" despite Tory pledges of austerity once it became clear how disastrous a decision that was. And you know what, it worked really well.

[bristolboy]

1 hour ago, ThaiBunny said:

Not sure why the UK is being singled out except by Brexit scaremongers. It's obvious that many Western economies have reached the point in the business cycle where there's an economic downturn. Anyone who doesn't know this isn't following the financial press that covers global trends rather than parochial matters

It may be obvious to you but so far the other major EU nations aren't in negative territory yet. And even if they do, the prospect of Brexit simply has to be affecting investment decisions in the UK.

Edited July 19, 2019 by bristolboy

[Baerboxer]

2 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Have any of those claiming this is just ‘project fear’ got any alternative economic data and forecasts they can refer us to that demonstrates the UK economy is not faltering?

 

Don't be silly - of course they haven't got any date or forecasts. They don't bother with all that nonsense.

 

Boris and Farage have told that what they want to hear and that's enough. 

 

Get with the program. Rule Britannia 

[Brickbat]

United Kingdom. United States. United we stand . Divided we fall.

[soalbundy]

14 hours ago, geoffbezoz said:

Thanks to the Brexit fools that is. As I said before, the UK will soon be vying with Greece as the poor man of Europe.

I hate the very idea of brexit but I doubt it will get that bad, although it will be bad. The truth is that the whole world is creaking (thanks Trump) and even the European giant, Germany, is slowing down. I think that a recessestion is near, woe to him who stands alone, no America is not your friend and the special relationship is a myth, your friends are on the continent to which you are genetically, financially and historically connected. "Make America great again" hear those words, you don't belong in this fascist dream.

[soalbundy]

1 minute ago, Brickbat said:

United Kingdom. United States. United we stand . Divided we fall.

The 'United Kingdom' seems to be coming apart at the seams. The UK is not a concern of the USA unless,as will come, you want to be its poodle. 

[OneMoreFarang]

By now I hope the UK will leave in October without a deal with the EU.

And then let them do whatever they want to do alone.

Maybe a great deal with the USA or China or whatever. I am sure the world is watching so that we can all learn from you.

 

And in case you come back to the EU in a couple of years and want to join the club again: Be prepared that you won't get any special deal - because you don't deserve a special deal.

[soalbundy]

Just now, OneMoreFarang said:

By now I hope the UK will leave in October without a deal with the EU.

And then let them do whatever they want to do alone.

Maybe a great deal with the USA or China or whatever. I am sure the world is watching so that we can all learn from you.

 

And in case you come back to the EU in a couple of years and want to join the club again: Be prepared that you won't get any special deal - because you don't deserve a special deal.

and you can kiss your pound goodbye.

[MRToMRT]

Im looking on the bright side. I am a "remainer" BUT if the UK economy sinks and the pound starts hurting badly I can finally buy the Frau that little cottage she has always wanted.

Even with tax the UK is looking ultimately cheaper than here for me with a western family. Holding off my departure from Thailand to see how this all plays out now. Interesting.

 

[JonnyF]

1 hour ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Don't be silly - of course they haven't got any date or forecasts. They don't bother with all that nonsense.

 

Boris and Farage have told that what they want to hear and that's enough. 

 

Get with the program. Rule Britannia 

Here are some facts for you. 

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth

 

Some areas up, some down. Overall not too shabby considering the multiple issues going on around the world and the problems (uncertainty) caused by Remainers not allowing the country to move forward with the democratic mandate provided by 17.4 million people.

 

Oh, unemployment is at record lows as well. We even got a "despite Brexit" in the report on that.

 

PS "despite Brexit" England won the Cricket World Cup and Hamilton won the British GP last weekend. Tremendous scenes in Blighty. Project Fear failing to keep a great nation down.

 

 

 

[RichardColeman]

15 hours ago, mike787 said:

Now what happens if the sterling tanks, what will be the value against the Baht???  Not looking good for the British pound especially with Brexit.

1. I think the pound can only 'tank' so much.

2. Many currencies are 'tanking' against the baht - many of whom have absolutely nothing to do with the EU !

 

[bristolboy]

3 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

1. I think the pound can only 'tank' so much.

2. Many currencies are 'tanking' against the baht - many of whom have absolutely nothing to do with the EU !

 

If it was just against the baht that the pound was declining, you'd have a better point.,

[MaxYakov]

Shouldn't the title be?:

 

Budget Watchdog: UK may be entering full-blown recession

[nauseus]

2 hours ago, bristolboy said:

Actually it was the EU's decision not to allow Euro nations to print "funny money", as you call it that led to it's prolonged suffering from the Great Recession. It was only when they resort to QE, a much less powerful tool, that recovery became widespread.

Because the UK controls its own currency, it did create "funny money" despite Tory pledges of austerity once it became clear how disastrous a decision that was. And you know what, it worked really well.

So the ECB certainly allowed it and spent 2.6 (funny) trillion Euros in the debt-buying process. What is QE less powerful than and if there has been a true recovery, why are they talking about cutting interest rates and even more QE?  

[nauseus]

2 hours ago, soalbundy said:

and you can kiss your pound goodbye.

that's a prime reason to get out now.

[billd766]

13 hours ago, bristolboy said:

Have you never heard of an Act of God? Some things you just can't adequately prepare for unless you want to defy economic history.

Who/what is god?

 

Some mythical person in an old book?

 

How about the Norse, Roman, Greek and all the other old gods that many people believe in?

[OneMoreFarang]

1 hour ago, JonnyF said:

PS "despite Brexit" England won the Cricket World Cup and Hamilton won the British GP last weekend.

You have interesting priorities... 

[bristolboy]

5 minutes ago, nauseus said:

So the ECB certainly allowed it and spent 2.6 (funny) trillion Euros in the debt-buying process. What is QE less powerful than and if there has been a true recovery, why are they talking about cutting interest rates and even more QE?  

The reason QE is less powerful than fiscal policies is simple. QE merely encourages financial institutions not to hold government bonds because of low interest rates. So the thinking goes that they'll invest instead. But as experience shows it's not that powerful. Holders of government bonds often prefer even negative rates to investing. But increased government spending actually does pump money into the economy and increase demand. So the reason why the recovery in the EU is stalling is because increased government spending is a much more effective way of priming the pump.

[OneMoreFarang]

1 minute ago, billd766 said:

Who/what is god?

 

Some mythical person in an old book?

 

How about the Norse, Roman, Greek and all the other old gods that many people believe in?

It seems many people believed in those old gods before they realized that they didn't exist. And then they believed in the newer gods and at least some people realize now that the newer gods also don't exist. It seems there is some slow progress at work.

[Chomper Higgot]

Still no rational counter argument to the assessment, other that is than a load of 'Kipper' waving.

[Loiner]

The point was that some problems are so big you just can't adequately prepare for them. Certainly the UK could have done a much much better job of preparing. It is going to be worse than it need have been. 

But the problems are not so big. Just another scaremongering report wants you to think that.
The govt doesn’t actually tell you what it is doing to prepare for and prevent the calamity that Remainers look forward to.

[Jai Dee]

Off-topic troll posts and replies have been removed.

[BritManToo]

13 hours ago, arithai12 said:

3) perhaps you should consider that the UK was not only paying, but also receiving princely from the EU

The EU is a socialist state, the 3 richest (Germany, UK, France) pay for the other 24.

With the UK out, that's 1/3 of their income gone, and France is so impoverished you can buy a hobby farm for 20,000 euros.

 

I actually don't ever believe the UK will leave, they'll do a deal to buy Boris and Co. off.

Can't see how Germany can afford not to do a deal at any price.

But it's great to dream.

 

As for the value of the pound, put interest rates up to 7% and it'll do well.

Edited July 19, 2019 by BritManToo

[bristolboy]

1 minute ago, BritManToo said:

The EU is a socialist state, the 3 richest (Germany, UK, France) pay for the other 24.

With the UK out, that's 1/3 of their income gone, and France is so impoverished you can buy a hobby farm for 20,000 euros.

 

I actually don't ever believe the UK will leave, they'll do a deal to buy Boris and Co. off.

Can't see how Germany can afford not to do a deal at any price.

But it's great to dream.

Ah, the hobby farm economic index.

Take a look here for an alternate take. It's a comparison of the 2 economies. They look very similar.

https://countryeconomy.com/countries/compare/uk/france

"Can't see how Germany can afford not to do a deal at any price."

That's what Brexiters were promising before the referendum. How has that worked out so far?

[Chomper Higgot]

4 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

The EU is a socialist state, the 3 richest (Germany, UK, France) pay for the other 24.

With the UK out, that's 1/3 of their income gone, and France is so impoverished you can buy a hobby farm for 20,000 euros.

 

I actually don't ever believe the UK will leave, they'll do a deal to buy Boris and Co. off.

Can't see how Germany can afford not to do a deal at any price.

But it's great to dream.

 

As for the value of the pound, put interest rates up to 7% and it'll do well.

Putting interest rates up to 7% would wipe out the buy to let industry, put the mortages of millions beyond the capabilities to pay, and destroy the Tory Party at the next election. 

 

So yeh - Do it!