15 hours ago, dunroaming said:

I think it all depends on how it affects you personally.  Anyone running a small business that involves any element of importing or exporting will feel the pain of leaving with no-deal badly, so will the people they employ.  People on a tight budget will suffer with higher prices thanks to a deflated pound.  Ex pats in Europe will feel the pain but those ex pats living further afield (Thailand for instance) won't be affected at all, apart from those relying on pensions or investments in Blighty.  Those Brits travelling to mainland Europe regularly will have minor inconveniences but nothing much will change for them.  And those with deep pockets and a champagne lifestyle won't really be effected at all.  It will certainly be a Brexit geared towards the Brits with money. And because of that,  I fear that after Brexit the divide between the rich and the poor will grow and the resentment that that brings will rise.

 

There will always be opportunities and Britain is still a place where the talent is abundant. There will still be ambitious young people coming to study at the excellent universities here and staying afterwards. Britain can certainly thrive again.  Where we are really failing is not having a government or politicians who can......well.. govern.  The charlatans and imbeciles who now pull the strings are dragging our country down the pan and that is where we need some talent to stop the rot. 

Good post.

"Anyone running a small business that involves any element of importing or exporting will feel the pain of leaving with no-deal badly, so will the people they employ. "

Something that the average leaver does not understand and those that do judgement is clouded by anti EU sentiment.

Currently in a tariff free situation the export documents are mainly for statistical information, virtually no financial liability.

The introduction of tariffs will be a gamechanger and the export documents will have a financial implication and customs inspections will have to become a great deal more vigilant. This will take us back to the 70's when many small businesses considered the regulative aspect of exporting just too much hassle.

Every chance that many small businesses will downsize and concentrate on the domestic market and no doubt there will be a significant number of fatalities along the way.

I was exporting to Europe before and after the introduction of the single market and saw first had the benefits it brought.

41 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

The predictions were based on a Vote to Leave, not leaving. They said there would be an emergency budget immediately after a Leave Vote and hundreds of thousands of job losses and I repeat, just by Voting to leave not actually leaving (I hope you understand the difference between the two).

 

Therefore you are wrong, just as Carney was with his pathetic attempt at scare mongering that most intelligent people simply ignored, and were proved correct to ignore.

Please show us where that was said. I do recall negative scenarios for brexit, but only after it had been effectuated, with of course some pre-effects.

5 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

The predictions were based on a Vote to Leave, not leaving. They said there would be an emergency budget immediately after a Leave Vote and hundreds of thousands of job losses and I repeat, just by Voting to leave not actually leaving (I hope you understand the difference between the two).

 

Therefore you are wrong, just as Carney was with his pathetic attempt at scare mongering that most intelligent people simply ignored, and were proved correct to ignore.

I think I'm back at school, "Please miss I understand the difference between voting to leave and actually leaving."  

Not the point though really, is it. Obviously Brexit effects the economy both as a major concern to business etc when it is possible (I.e. after the vote) and when/if it actually happens and we leave. We have lost many major businesses to the rEU already. Every reputable financial body (IMF, OECD, UK GOV stats,  etc etc etc) and the vast majority of economists (Excluding nutters like Minford) say Brexit is really bad news, (And no deal Brexit a disaster). Of course some of the effect is felt before the event. Osbourne and Camerons scare stories (They wanted to keep their jobs) are now totally irrelevant, they lost power, whereas Bojo's lies still are relevant. 

 

I don't refer to the JonnyF's post above particularly, but rather to the generality of Brexiteer posts in this long thread and others. Contrary to scare stories put about by them, the EU has not actually banned people from wearing our Union Jack underpants/knickers  in the event we were tasteless enough to want to do that.

4 hours ago, citybiker said:

HMG will not reinstate a Hard Border, neither will Dublin as it’s been made clear by Leo despite all the waffle, spin and threats. The WA backstop is purely a EU insurance policy (politically linked to the GFA imo ) as it gives ‘leverage’ & most importantly power, which Brussels craves.

Only Brussels is insisting on a nil required hard border, with Germany preparing a significant fiscal package for ROI for direct impact of possibility of no deal.....
 

There is a narrow minded view on the issue, the UK is focused on trade without giving any consideration to identity.

Currently the nationalists in NI see an acceptable situation where they can live in NI effectively as Irish citizens with Irish passports. Any change to that arrangement and it is almost certain there will be a call for a referendum.

The Single Market Act puts a legal obligation on the EU to protect the single market, something else Boris would rather ignore.

27 minutes ago, Jip99 said:

 

 

I believe there will be a deal by 31 October.

There has to be a deal in one form or another. Johnson's behavior, past and current makes 31st Oct a bit doubtful.

An extension pending a GE is just as likely a scenario.

8 hours ago, bomber said:

spain/bulgaria/portugal/latvia are barely aware the UK is leaving,if/when they do life wont change,despite what the bulldog thinks

 

 

I think you actually believe that ...

2 hours ago, transam said:

Have you spoken to any of those countries in "confidence"...????

 

 

..... including the Welsh..

 

Does he not understand that we don't give a flying fart who wants to stay in the EU, or by what margin.

34 minutes ago, Jip99 said:

 

 

I believe there will be a deal by 31 October.

Lets hope so, it does'nt make any sense for a No Deal on either side, the good thing about BoJo in the hot seat is he won't stand any rubbish deal unlike May, her deal was total capitulation and just bowing to EU pressure, BoJo ain't gonna do that.

21 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Good post.

"Anyone running a small business that involves any element of importing or exporting will feel the pain of leaving with no-deal badly, so will the people they employ. "

Something that the average leaver does not understand and those that do judgement is clouded by anti EU sentiment.

Currently in a tariff free situation the export documents are mainly for statistical information, virtually no financial liability.

The introduction of tariffs will be a gamechanger and the export documents will have a financial implication and customs inspections will have to become a great deal more vigilant. This will take us back to the 70's when many small businesses considered the regulative aspect of exporting just too much hassle.

Every chance that many small businesses will downsize and concentrate on the domestic market and no doubt there will be a significant number of fatalities along the way.

I was exporting to Europe before and after the introduction of the single market and saw first had the benefits it brought.

Yes it was a good post, as is yours. I have run a small manufacturing business for 30+ years, although I am now cutting down on the work and aiming for semi-retirement. Exporting outside the EU has usually been a paperwork nightmare. Sometimes you can increase the overall time on the work by 30%. Many times you do ask "Is it actually worth it". 

"Every chance that many small businesses will downsize and concentrate on the domestic market and no doubt there will be a significant number of fatalities along the way."

Problem is well over 50% of my goods go abroad, so I will have to cut down on exports first. To hell with the balance of payments, eh.

 

The sad thing is that so many Brexiteers see this all in emotional terms, the big emotion being fear "You are being controlled by EU Foreigners". It is complete BS of course but once the fear grips you it is hard to conquer. Forget the paranoia, the fact is that Britain is successful or not because of business.....no business - no money - supercharged austerity for all who haven't got cash stashed away in tax havens.  

1 hour ago, sandyf said:

Do people really believe that by Oct 31st there will be no deals on current legislative agreements.

 

Boris has said that in the absence of a withdrawal agreement that after Oct 31st he would require EU co-operation, quite delusional, particularly considering some of the past rhetoric. Wishful thinking and complex legalities are poles apart.

 

On February 18 I heard the Foreign Secretary repeatedly tell the Munich Security Conference that leaving the EU would mean “liberation”. A man of his intelligence surely knew that in Munich the word means escape from Nazi rule.

Not a new theme for him: on May 16 2016 he had told Sunday Telegraph readers that the European Commission’s aims were similar to those of Hitler’s Third Reich. And he had since compared President Juncker to a prisoner-of-war camp guard.

https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/john-kerr-brexit-is-about-foreign-policy-why-is-britain-being-so-silent-a3617336.html

That proves that the man who can speak Old Greek language and Latin fails in talking common sense …. 

1 hour ago, Nigel Garvie said:

I think I'm back at school, "Please miss I understand the difference between voting to leave and actually leaving."  

Not the point though really, is it. Obviously Brexit effects the economy both as a major concern to business etc when it is possible (I.e. after the vote) and when/if it actually happens and we leave. We have lost many major businesses to the rEU already. Every reputable financial body (IMF, OECD, UK GOV stats,  etc etc etc) and the vast majority of economists (Excluding nutters like Minford) say Brexit is really bad news, (And no deal Brexit a disaster). Of course some of the effect is felt before the event. Osbourne and Camerons scare stories (They wanted to keep their jobs) are now totally irrelevant, they lost power, whereas Bojo's lies still are relevant. 

 

I don't refer to the JonnyF's post above particularly, but rather to the generality of Brexiteer posts in this long thread and others. Contrary to scare stories put about by them, the EU has not actually banned people from wearing our Union Jack underpants/knickers  in the event we were tasteless enough to want to do that.

The point is that Brexiteers didn't believe Project Fear phase 1 and it was subsequently proved to be nonsense as we predicted. We also do not leave the latest rendition and will be proved to be correct again should the Remainers ever accept the result of the democratic vote and stop their devious plotting to overturn it. Will there be short term disruption? Of course there will, but the horror stories are ridiculous. It's like the boy who cried wolf.

 

Considering the Remainers like to portray Leavers as thick and gullible, they do tend to believe a lot of the nonsense that the establishment feeds them.

 

Oh and here is Carney's own admission that he got it wrong, as requested by another poster.

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/mark-carney-eats-humble-pie-on-brexit/

 

 

1 hour ago, sandyf said:

Do people really believe that by Oct 31st there will be no deals on current legislative agreements.

 

Boris has said that in the absence of a withdrawal agreement that after Oct 31st he would require EU co-operation, quite delusional, particularly considering some of the past rhetoric. Wishful thinking and complex legalities are poles apart.

 

On February 18 I heard the Foreign Secretary repeatedly tell the Munich Security Conference that leaving the EU would mean “liberation”. A man of his intelligence surely knew that in Munich the word means escape from Nazi rule.

Not a new theme for him: on May 16 2016 he had told Sunday Telegraph readers that the European Commission’s aims were similar to those of Hitler’s Third Reich. And he had since compared President Juncker to a prisoner-of-war camp guard.

https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/john-kerr-brexit-is-about-foreign-policy-why-is-britain-being-so-silent-a3617336.html

But that was 3 years ago and there have been changes in Foreign Ministers since then.

1 hour ago, Jip99 said:

 

 

I believe there will be a deal by 31 October.

I truly hope so. It won't be TMs deal but it will come close IF the backstop is removed or modified.

 

The UK doesn't want it, Eire doesn't want it but the EU does.

21 minutes ago, billd766 said:

I truly hope so. It won't be TMs deal but it will come close IF the backstop is removed or modified.

 

The UK doesn't want it, Eire doesn't want it but the EU does.

I must admire the long lasting hopeful thinking , but it was 3 years wasted time , as the iceberg did not blink for the Titanic neither ….., it is end station guy's & girls , start preparing seriously , there are a few professional moving/packing company's in Brussels if needed ...

Get real  !

 

BTW did nobody warned the U.K. the exit door is a PUSH door not a pull door ….?????

15 hours ago, Bluespunk said:

Maybe, but from a personal point of view, I would like to see Eire’s concerns over the Good Friday Agreement addressed to its satisfaction. 

You only want to see Eire's satisfaction. What about the satisfaction of Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, or doesn't that matter to you?

4 minutes ago, billd766 said:

You only want to see Eire's satisfaction. What about the satisfaction of Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, or doesn't that matter to you?

he is Irish

17 hours ago, vogie said:

Basically they havn't a clue, Sir Nicholas Soames was being interviewed by Sky News Adam Boulton and he said parliament would do anything possible to stop a 'no deal' when Boulton asked him how, he replied I don't know.

I was watching a Sky news press  review . One lady guest said that a " no deal " was not mentioned on the Brexit vote . A technicality ? well yes but I suppose she could be seen as right .  Now if a " no deal " is blocked by the HOC there has to be an election or another referendum  cos there is once again a stale mate . What will the EU do if there is a block ? will they give another extension or kick us out ?  The MPs who are opposed to Brexit should be carrying out the wishes of their constituents , if not they have little chance of being re-elected .  Nigel Farage said 2 days ago , he would back or form a coalition with the tories in a G/E  to ensure a Brexit . 

I believe that the EU are being stubborn to re-negotiate because they think they are a beyond reproach . I think Brexit is inevitable , the planning to leave is in place , the state of the UK will change for the better now that we have a PM with ambitions for the country that has been in the doldrums for the last 10 years under the influence of TM .  Brexit will be the trigger for the domino effect chain reaction for other EU members and so the end is  nigh for the EU  , too big for its boots .

2 minutes ago, superal said:

I was watching a Sky news press  review . One lady guest said that a " no deal " was not mentioned on the Brexit vote . A technicality ? well yes but I suppose she could be seen as right .  Now if a " no deal " is blocked by the HOC there has to be an election or another referendum  cos there is once again a stale mate . What will the EU do if there is a block ? will they give another extension or kick us out ?  The MPs who are opposed to Brexit should be carrying out the wishes of their constituents , if not they have little chance of being re-elected .  Nigel Farage said 2 days ago , he would back or form a coalition with the tories in a G/E  to ensure a Brexit . 

I believe that the EU are being stubborn to re-negotiate because they think they are a beyond reproach . I think Brexit is inevitable , the planning to leave is in place , the state of the UK will change for the better now that we have a PM with ambitions for the country that has been in the doldrums for the last 10 years under the influence of TM .  Brexit will be the trigger for the domino effect chain reaction for other EU members and so the end is  nigh for the EU  , too big for its boots .

 

 

Agree.

 

Do you know if the lady voted 'Leave" and feels she was duped by only having the choice of Leave or Remain.

 

Or, as I suspect, is she someone who voted remain, can't accept the referendum result, and is nit-picking about what others voted for.

1 minute ago, Jip99 said:

 

 

Agree.

 

Do you know if the lady voted 'Leave" and feels she was duped by only having the choice of Leave or Remain.

 

Or, as I suspect, is she someone who voted remain, can't accept the referendum result, and is nit-picking about what others voted for.

So it becomes nitpicking on both sides ….. oh..! as the E.U. can grant extensions …. but only when asked …. by someone who is able to do that for the U.K. ( now that is U.K.  legislative ...H.O.C. problem coming ..)

It can not be done unilateral by E.U. as that is overturning the U.K. action of A50 

59 minutes ago, billd766 said:

You only want to see Eire's satisfaction. What about the satisfaction of Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, or doesn't that matter to you?

The Good Friday Agreement benefits all those parties you mention. 

 

Only the actions of one of those parties (the no dealer elements of them to be exact) is threatening it. 

15 minutes ago, superal said:

The MPs who are opposed to Brexit should be carrying out the wishes of their constituents , if not they have little chance of being re-elected .

No, they should be carrying out what is best for the country. Next someone will come along and accuse them of only doing things that will get them re-elected.

 

10 minutes ago, Jip99 said:

A technicality ? well yes but I suppose she could be seen as right . 

With uncertainty about the content of leave, even among supporters, more than technicality.

 

10 minutes ago, Jip99 said:

I believe that the EU are being stubborn to re-negotiate because they think they are a beyond reproach .

They are doing what they think is in the interest of the EU. Nothing to do with 'being beyond reproach'.

 

10 minutes ago, Jip99 said:

I think Brexit is inevitable , the planning to leave is in place ,

Which brexit would that be? Customs union, May's deal, new deal, no deal?

 

Sorry about quotes being attributed to the wrong poster, I just quoted the selection, TVF messed up.

 

On 7/28/2019 at 7:14 AM, fishtank said:

It was the British who wanted the backstop in the first place.

Plonker Boris don't seem to understand this.

If he and his muppets had voted for the deal months ago UK would be out by now.

 

Only problem being it was and still is an utterly shitty deal which only a tiny tiny few support.

 

Not the EU's fault btw - the fault lies with the incompetent arrogant May and her muppets.

21 minutes ago, Bluespunk said:

The Good Friday Agreement benefits all those parties you mention. 

 

Only the actions of one of those parties (the no dealer elements of them to be exact) is threatening it. 

 

The Irish government, the UK government and Northern Irish politicians all want a no border situation to continuing. The discussion needs to be how that can be achieved.

 

The elephant in the room is the intransigent EU negotiators who come up with an overly one sided bureaucratic solution which is open to misuse. Ireland have to be strong enough to fight their corner with the UK but also not be the EU's pawn. 

37 minutes ago, superal said:

I was watching a Sky news press  review . One lady guest said that a " no deal " was not mentioned on the Brexit vote . A technicality ? well yes but I suppose she could be seen as right .  Now if a " no deal " is blocked by the HOC there has to be an election or another referendum  cos there is once again a stale mate . What will the EU do if there is a block ? will they give another extension or kick us out ?  The MPs who are opposed to Brexit should be carrying out the wishes of their constituents , if not they have little chance of being re-elected .  Nigel Farage said 2 days ago , he would back or form a coalition with the tories in a G/E  to ensure a Brexit . 

I believe that the EU are being stubborn to re-negotiate because they think they are a beyond reproach . I think Brexit is inevitable , the planning to leave is in place , the state of the UK will change for the better now that we have a PM with ambitions for the country that has been in the doldrums for the last 10 years under the influence of TM .  Brexit will be the trigger for the domino effect chain reaction for other EU members and so the end is  nigh for the EU  , too big for its boots .

 

You describe how we've got into a constitutional mess. What happens if the HOC refuse May's deal for the umpteenth time and refuse a new Boris deal and block a no deal exit?

 

The EU, if asked, can either grant or deny a further extension. The UK government can rescind Article 50, with the intention of invoking it again once their house is in order and the UK remains a full member whilst that happens. Which would bring into question the legitimacy of the newly appointed EU leaders. 

 

I suspect many EU members just want an end, and are getting close to not caring what that end is anymore. 

 

I'm also guessing that it might be resolved by a GE with the Tories and Farage plc standing for Brexit, any Brexit but probably no deal, and Labour doing one of commie Corbyn's u-turns and standing with the LidDems and minor parties for remaining. Never before AFAIK, has an election been fought on one singular polarized issue like this. Bare in mind that elections are won on number of seats won and not an absolute voter number. Would be interesting. 

 

I also suspect that should, gawd help us, commie Corbyn and his loonies win and form a government, he'd quickly do another u-turn and try and leave the EU all over again!!

2 hours ago, billd766 said:

But that was 3 years ago and there have been changes in Foreign Ministers since then.

Not sure what you are trying to say Bill, do you think that time or giving up the job excuses his statements.

2 hours ago, billd766 said:

I truly hope so. It won't be TMs deal but it will come close IF the backstop is removed or modified.

 

The UK doesn't want it, Eire doesn't want it but the EU does.

It doesn't really matter who wants what, It is the UK that will turn the border in Ireland into an EU external border and the EU is obliged to respect international law regarding the border. Eire will be responsible for local management under the umbrella of FRONTEX.

 

Two years ago, Frontex was expanded and enhanced to become the European Border and Coast Guard Agency. The Agency’s new mandate and increased resources have transformed Frontex into the operational arm of the EU in its ongoing response to the challenges at its external borders.

https://frontex.europa.eu/about-frontex/foreword/

 

1 hour ago, Baerboxer said:

What happens if the HOC refuse May's deal for the umpteenth time and refuse a new Boris deal and block a no deal exit?

The HoC cannot "block" a no-deal Brexit.

 

The default position, legally, is that the UK leaves the EU on Oct. 31, with or without a deal.

 

Only 2 scenarios can prevent that: a law being passed by the HoC to repeal the Withdrawal Act, or a new government asking the EU to extend membership or accept the UK's withdrawal of Article 50.

 

I think the HoC could make it very difficult, as there is legislation that needs to be passed to make no-deal work, but in absolute legal terms, it cannot.

Bit like a carry on film,regardless.

 

The European Union will refuse to talk trade with Prime Minister Boris Johnson until the UK gives Brussels the £39bn divorce bill. The stark warning came from one of Emmanuel Macron’s strongest allies and former French EU minister Nathalie Loiseau. Speaking to Sky News’ Sophy Ridge, Ms Loiseau confirmed that there would be no discussion on a future trade relationship until the divorce bill, citizens rights and the Irish border are solved.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1158818/Emmanuel-Macron-Boris-Johnson-Brexit-deal-trade-EU

2 hours ago, Baerboxer said:

 

The Irish government, the UK government and Northern Irish politicians all want a no border situation to continuing. The discussion needs to be how that can be achieved.

 

The elephant in the room is the intransigent EU negotiators who come up with an overly one sided bureaucratic solution which is open to misuse. Ireland have to be strong enough to fight their corner with the UK but also not be the EU's pawn. 

Eire has the EU in its corner, as the current backstop arrangement in the exit deal the uk negotiated shows. 

 

It was the govt of Eire who raised the issue of the consequences of brexit on the Good Friday Agreement with the other eu govts after the referendum. 

A couple of troll and off-topic posts have been removed.