Another Brexit thread, have a look anyway.

[vinny41]

In 2018, road vehicles were the UK’s single largest import from the EU, valued at £47 billion, 17% of all UK goods imports from the EU and 43% of all UK imports of road vehicles

https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7851/CBP-7851.pdf

[BritManToo]

18 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

In 2018, road vehicles were the UK’s single largest import from the EU, valued at £47 billion, 17% of all UK goods imports from the EU and 43% of all UK imports of road vehicles

https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7851/CBP-7851.pdf

The Germans will need to find someone else to buy their cars.

[Slip]

5 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

The Germans will need to find someone else to buy their cars.

And are we to start driving those American gas-guzzling monsters?  I suppose there is always the Asian models, but I have never been a big fan.  Imagine the next coronation with Prince Ch'illiam turning up in a Toyota! 

[Jip99]

18 minutes ago, Slip said:

And are we to start driving those American gas-guzzling monsters?  I suppose there is always the Asian models, but I have never been a big fan.  Imagine the next coronation with Prince Ch'illiam turning up in a Toyota! 

 

 

There is a huge opportunity for Asian manufacturers if the EU screw up a trade deal.

[david555]

46 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

The Germans will need to find someone else to buy their cars.

I think the ex east block country's who joined E.U. will be welcoming the job & salary's to build their cars  and so creating partly also a buyers market while having cheaper labor costs ...

Same as the German car factures granted it to the U.K. as being a E.U. member …..that is how it works in the E.U.

Edited August 8, 2019 by david555

[david555]

(As I like hypothetical questions ….and especially as this B.J. saga becomes very tense …..Would he dare to bring the Queen in a difficult position …..?   My thought's ….Yes ,he would dare do that ) 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/07/could-the-queen-sack-boris-johnson-the-experts-are-divided

As the Queen’s powers have been cited in the no-deal Brexit debate, constitutional experts are divided on whether she could intervene to dismiss Boris Johnson and invite a new prime minister to form a government should he lose a vote of no confidence and schedule an election for after the Halloween exit date.

“Short answer: the Queen could dismiss Boris Johnson if he lost a vote of no confidence and refused to resign,” said Robert Hazell, professor of government and constitution at University College London.

“But she would only do so if the House of Commons indicated clearly who should be appointed as prime minister in his place.”

[sandyf]

On 8/6/2019 at 8:06 PM, vogie said:

I have told you about your analogies, they don't work.

Boris wants a deal, if the EU won't talk, what can we do, the ball is in the EUs court and not ours, unless we accept the crumbs they have thrown on the floor for us to pick up. Which he looks like refusing.

The ultimate brexit question, why on earth can't the EU break their own laws?

After all the UK is quite prepared to, brexiteers want the negotiations to be on an equal footing, both sides acting unlawfully.

[sandyf]

On 8/7/2019 at 12:29 AM, gearbox said:

 

AFAIK these billions are not lost, as they never existed in the first place. These seems to be just contractual money as per the EU laws to be paid on exit.  Anyone correct me if I'm wrong.

 

Of course you are wrong, the money is not specific to exit, the obligations would have been paid routinely had there never been a referendum.

[sandyf]

On 8/7/2019 at 5:57 PM, CG1 Blue said:

"The EU insists on the backstop because it wants to keep the peace."

 

Ok, so tell me this. If we have no deal by 31st October and the UK leaves the EU, what will happen on the Irish border on 1st November? 

 

If you tell me nothing will change, then why do the EU insist on a backstop anyway? 

If you tell me the EU / Ireland will work out a solution to prevent a hard border, then why have they not made this solution public? 

 

I'm curious as to why nobody is asking the EU what they're going to do about the border on 1st November if there is no deal. 

 

You really expect the EU to throw petrol on the fire, Boris Johnson, if still around, will be scrabbling to make some deals on 31st Oct.

Most of the solution will come from business. One of the largest businesses in NI has spent £20 million on a new factory south of the border so he does not have to cross it, not good news for the NI workers, and the NI dairy farmers are preparing to slaughter 45,000 cows to resolve the milk problem.

Expect to see more solutions in the coming weeks.

[tebee]

17 hours ago, BritManToo said:

The Germans will need to find someone else to buy their cars.

And what exactly do you expect the population of the UK to buy instead ? There will be virtually no  UK based car manufacturer post Brexit.

 

The answer is people will still buy them, just like in Thailand they still buy German cars. It's just they will cost more, both because of import duties and the falling pound.

[ThaiBunny]

10 minutes ago, tebee said:

There will be virtually no  UK based car manufacturer post Brexit.

Evidence?

[rickudon]

OK some facts. The UK contributes about 6-7% of the EU budget. Obviously some of this gets spent in the UK (about 60%). The EU will get along just fine without us, just tighten their belts by one notch.

 

About 47% of our trade is with the EU. All of this MIGHT be impacted in some way. Currently there are no tariffs, but with no deal most would be impacted. This would raise prices for our goods slightly in the EU, so it is reasonable to suppose our trade would decline. Trade with other world countries is unlikely to suddenly increase, so a fall in GDP is to be expected. Some areas would suffer more than others, like sheep farmers and dairy farmers will be badly hit.

 

There are many non-trade bilateral agreements between EU countries, some of which may no longer apply. It would be nice to think that we would have renegotiated them BEFORE we leave, but no signs that that will happen yet. These could cause minimal chaos to moderate chaos ..... hard to predict.

 

There are of course the need to have customs documents on all outgoing and ingoing trade with the EU. Many companies are woefully unprepared on both sides of the channel. That along with customs inspections could potentially cause chaos. How much we have no idea, and depends on how bloody minded customs procedures become. It will get better, with time.

 

Tariffs will give the UK government a big increase in tax income. Of course, we will have to pay for that when we buy anything. It is claimed that some products will be cheaper to import - so this will offset those costs. However, if chicken for instance, can be imported at much lower cost, it would mean the end of the broiler chicken industry in the UK .... now apply that across everything that becomes substantially cheaper.

 

So what do we get.

 

Short term chaos (how much and how long we will find out).

An initial fall in exports - which might recover quickly, slowly, or not at all. Might even continue to fall.

Some industries may go to the wall due to increased competition.

A fall in employment.

Cost of living? Depends on the compromises made. Probably increase at first.

Government tax revenues (other from tariffs) will fall. Government expenditure would rise due to having to subsidise more unemployed people and industries in difficulty. Or maybe, all public services will be cut instead.

 

The exchange rate? Well, it will not be rising anytime soon as that would damage the economy, which will be having enough problems. Probably a fall at first, with some gains later as issues are gradually resolved. Do not expect to see 40 baht to the pound for a while ('while' is a piece of string, length unknown).

 

The UK? It may, or may not, exist in 10 years

 

How long before the average person is as well off as 15 years ago? Maybe never, maybe by 2040  if climate change doesn't dominate the issue......

 

I have tried to be as objective as possible. If anyone has any evidence that anything will be dramatically different, i would like some concrete data, not dreams ...........

 

Now if the above is true, please tell me who benefits?

 

 

 

 

[ThaiBunny]

4 minutes ago, rickudon said:

About 47% of our trade is with the EU.

Exports and imports? My understanding is that from a trade perspective the EU will suffer more if tariffs are imposed on EU exports to the UK

[rickudon]

3 minutes ago, ThaiBunny said:

Exports and imports? My understanding is that from a trade perspective the EU will suffer more if tariffs are imposed on EU exports to the UK

Yes, but it is a small percentage of total EU trade, spread across many countries. Germany's trade with the UK is just 6% of their total trade. And it will make all those items more expensive in the UK. The consumer will pay for it (if they can afford to do so).

[sandyf]

On 8/8/2019 at 8:42 AM, vogie said:

Here is Michel Barnier saying that the NI issue is an invention in order to create great leverage for the EU in the next stage of trade negotiations.

"Here is Michel Barnier saying that the NI issue is an invention" - Do you have a link to support that assertion.

 

"For me, there is also a strategic and tactical reason, which is to use Ireland for the future negotiations."

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1134530/Brexit-news-BBC-UK-EU-Michel-Barnier-European-Union-Theresa-May-Conservative-Party

 

Any negotiator will use whatever situation exists to their advantage nothing unusual about that, and the fact that the border will become an EU external border is reality, hardly an invention. Whether you like it or not brexit created an issue over the border irrespective of anything Barnier may have said.

Is it not true that the Tory party bribed and used Northern Ireland to further their agenda, or would that be another invention.

[sandyf]

On 8/8/2019 at 2:19 PM, ThaiBunny said:

It's entirely "possible" for the UK government to determine that goods coming into or leaving Britain at any land port of entry need not be inspected or be subject to customs inspection.

Theoretically that may be the case but under WTO regulations the same arrangement would have to be in place at every point of entry and open to every country in the world.

Never going to happen.

[sandyf]

23 hours ago, ThaiBunny said:

I have a philosophy that's stood me in good stead all my life, especially at senior management level. I call it "creative inertia". In many more circumstances than most people imagine, it's possible to do absolutely nothing and let events take their course, with very little downside. I suspect that that's what Boris & Co will do in the short term - it's certainly my recommendation

I suspect that the EU have read your mind.

[sandyf]

23 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

My point is, the EU by refusing to alter the backstop arrangements will end up with the same 'dilemma' when we leave with no deal. The backstop is supposedly to prevent any need for a hard border. But by refusing to alter it they will end up with a hard border anyway. 

In reality the EU will come up with a solution to the border after no deal. But it is illogical to refuse to alter the backstop on the basis that it is to protect the border arrangements, when refusing to alter the backstop will result in the same thing! 

"There is a process of engagement between Ireland and the European Commission on how to meet, in a no-deal scenario, our shared twin objectives of protecting the integrity of the Single Market and Ireland's place in it, and avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland.

"Both the EU and the UK government agree that no one has yet come up with any alternatives that meet the same objectives as the Withdrawal Agreement."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-48929182

[sandyf]

55 minutes ago, ThaiBunny said:

Exports and imports? My understanding is that from a trade perspective the EU will suffer more if tariffs are imposed on EU exports to the UK

Nobody knows what the trade figures will be post brexit, certainly not as they are now.. Once the new regs come into force many of the smaller exporters on both sides will not want the hassle and give up exporting.

The EU will have a significantly larger tariff free customer base than the UK ever will so any inconvenience will not last long.

[sotonowl]

The EU have what they want from Mays negotiations and we'd have been a hell of a lot worse if we'd accepted them. You have to understand they have zero intention of scrapping the backstop because it suits them and chains us to them.

The EU is drifting towards what the Russian model is and left alone they will eventually converge to a point where both systems won't allow you to vote independently. Never mind the economic issues, as a democratic country, we cannot accept this drift.

Have to call a spade a spade, it's the European Soviet, nothing more, nothing less.

The economic disadvantages the media bangs on about are just scare tactics. Truth of the matter is we'll thrive outside the EU if we leave it properly, they know this and are frightened to death at the very thought of it.

[CG1 Blue]

2 hours ago, sandyf said:

On 8/7/2019 at 11:57 AM, CG1 Blue said:

"The EU insists on the backstop because it wants to keep the peace."

 

Ok, so tell me this. If we have no deal by 31st October and the UK leaves the EU, what will happen on the Irish border on 1st November? 

 

If you tell me nothing will change, then why do the EU insist on a backstop anyway? 

If you tell me the EU / Ireland will work out a solution to prevent a hard border, then why have they not made this solution public? 

 

I'm curious as to why nobody is asking the EU what they're going to do about the border on 1st November if there is no deal. 

 

You really expect the EU to throw petrol on the fire, Boris Johnson, if still around, will be scrabbling to make some deals on 31st Oct.

Most of the solution will come from business. One of the largest businesses in NI has spent £20 million on a new factory south of the border so he does not have to cross it, not good news for the NI workers, and the NI dairy farmers are preparing to slaughter 45,000 cows to resolve the milk problem.

Expect to see more solutions in the coming weeks.

All very interesting, but you didn't answer the question.  Will the EU install a hard border starting from 1st November if there is no deal? 

 

I suspect they already have a plan to avoid a hard border. But as Barnier has said, the border issue has to stay at the top of the agenda in order to strengthen the EU negotiating position. 

[CG1 Blue]

1 hour ago, sandyf said:

"There is a process of engagement between Ireland and the European Commission on how to meet, in a no-deal scenario, our shared twin objectives of protecting the integrity of the Single Market and Ireland's place in it, and avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland.

And there we have it. A process of engagement; in other words they'll find a way to avoid a hard border. So why do we need a backstop? 

[CG1 Blue]

2 hours ago, rickudon said:

OK some facts. The UK contributes about 6-7% of the EU budget. Obviously some of this gets spent in the UK (about 60%). The EU will get along just fine without us, just tighten their belts by one notch.

 

About 47% of our trade is with the EU. All of this MIGHT be impacted in some way. Currently there are no tariffs, but with no deal most would be impacted. This would raise prices for our goods slightly in the EU, so it is reasonable to suppose our trade would decline. Trade with other world countries is unlikely to suddenly increase, so a fall in GDP is to be expected. Some areas would suffer more than others, like sheep farmers and dairy farmers will be badly hit.

 

There are many non-trade bilateral agreements between EU countries, some of which may no longer apply. It would be nice to think that we would have renegotiated them BEFORE we leave, but no signs that that will happen yet. These could cause minimal chaos to moderate chaos ..... hard to predict.

 

There are of course the need to have customs documents on all outgoing and ingoing trade with the EU. Many companies are woefully unprepared on both sides of the channel. That along with customs inspections could potentially cause chaos. How much we have no idea, and depends on how bloody minded customs procedures become. It will get better, with time.

 

Tariffs will give the UK government a big increase in tax income. Of course, we will have to pay for that when we buy anything. It is claimed that some products will be cheaper to import - so this will offset those costs. However, if chicken for instance, can be imported at much lower cost, it would mean the end of the broiler chicken industry in the UK .... now apply that across everything that becomes substantially cheaper.

 

So what do we get.

 

Short term chaos (how much and how long we will find out).

An initial fall in exports - which might recover quickly, slowly, or not at all. Might even continue to fall.

Some industries may go to the wall due to increased competition.

A fall in employment.

Cost of living? Depends on the compromises made. Probably increase at first.

Government tax revenues (other from tariffs) will fall. Government expenditure would rise due to having to subsidise more unemployed people and industries in difficulty. Or maybe, all public services will be cut instead.

 

The exchange rate? Well, it will not be rising anytime soon as that would damage the economy, which will be having enough problems. Probably a fall at first, with some gains later as issues are gradually resolved. Do not expect to see 40 baht to the pound for a while ('while' is a piece of string, length unknown).

 

The UK? It may, or may not, exist in 10 years

 

How long before the average person is as well off as 15 years ago? Maybe never, maybe by 2040  if climate change doesn't dominate the issue......

 

I have tried to be as objective as possible. If anyone has any evidence that anything will be dramatically different, i would like some concrete data, not dreams ...........

 

Now if the above is true, please tell me who benefits?

 

 

 

 

99% of this is pure speculation, and solely focusing on (exaggerated) negative impacts. It reminds me of the stuff that came from George Osborne in the run up to the referendum. Or those that said we would be left behind if we didn't join the Euro (how did the ERM work out for us John Major?)

 

Every big business I've been involved with has plans in place to prevent disruption if we leave without a deal. That will be the case across most of the UK. 

[Golden Triangle]

17 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

99% of this is pure speculation, and solely focusing on (exaggerated) negative impacts. It reminds me of the stuff that came from George Osborne in the run up to the referendum. Or those that said we would be left behind if we didn't join the Euro (how did the ERM work out for us John Major?)

 

Every big business I've been involved with has plans in place to prevent disruption if we leave without a deal. That will be the case across most of the UK. 

I would be interested to know which businesses you have been involved with, purely for clarification of course.

[CG1 Blue]

57 minutes ago, Golden Triangle said:

I would be interested to know which businesses you have been involved with, purely for clarification of course.

Financial services companies - banks, custodians, funds etc. I also have friends with SME import / export businesses who have contingency plans. 

 

Businesses / business people always find a way! 

[Golden Triangle]

7 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

Financial services companies - banks, custodians, funds etc. I also have friends with SME import / export businesses who have contingency plans. 

 

Businesses / business people always find a way! 

Thanks for that, it is always nice to get some sort of positive feedback from people on the front line as it were, I had a long chat with one of my brothers last night, he hangs out with a few City of London high fliers and basically echoed your sentiments, the trouble for me though is the continued uncertainty and fear of what might happen, especially to the GBP.

[phka]

Everything has to be paid for racism don't come cheap you got rid of the forigners stopped the free movement of people now its time to pay the bill

[CG1 Blue]

25 minutes ago, Golden Triangle said:

Thanks for that, it is always nice to get some sort of positive feedback from people on the front line as it were, I had a long chat with one of my brothers last night, he hangs out with a few City of London high fliers and basically echoed your sentiments, the trouble for me though is the continued uncertainty and fear of what might happen, especially to the GBP.

I totally agree on the uncertainty. I sometimes wish I could fast forward to mid 2020 when this will (hopefully) all be done and dusted and we'll know where we stand! 

[sandyf]

21 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

And there we have it. A process of engagement; in other words they'll find a way to avoid a hard border. So why do we need a backstop? 

Your question has been answered but you are like a mouse on a treadmill, you are treating "hard border" like the length of a piece of string.

If you mean by hard border, infrastructure on the border, it is almost certain that will never happen.

In the event of a no deal there will be a technical "hard border" and the "process of engagement" is an exercise to determine where to put the infrastructure so that it does appear on the physical border. tariffs will have to be collected somewhere on the supply chain and it will almost certainly mean businesses somewhere will have to pay and then reclaim on proof of final destination.

The backstop was put in the WA to create a technical "soft border", as currently, as opposed to a technical "hard border". Take the backstop out of the WA and you have a no deal scenario.

So far all the emphasis has been on the movement of goods with little mention of people. There is no way that people from the UK will be allowed to walk into the EU so it is likely that EU immigration checks will be carried out at airports and ferries heading to Northern Ireland.

 

[CG1 Blue]

2 hours ago, sandyf said:

Your question has been answered but you are like a mouse on a treadmill, you are treating "hard border" like the length of a piece of string.

If you mean by hard border, infrastructure on the border, it is almost certain that will never happen.

In the event of a no deal there will be a technical "hard border" and the "process of engagement" is an exercise to determine where to put the infrastructure so that it does appear on the physical border. tariffs will have to be collected somewhere on the supply chain and it will almost certainly mean businesses somewhere will have to pay and then reclaim on proof of final destination.

The backstop was put in the WA to create a technical "soft border", as currently, as opposed to a technical "hard border". Take the backstop out of the WA and you have a no deal scenario.

So far all the emphasis has been on the movement of goods with little mention of people. There is no way that people from the UK will be allowed to walk into the EU so it is likely that EU immigration checks will be carried out at airports and ferries heading to Northern Ireland.

 

The narrative from the other side has been that the backstop is required in order to prevent the need for hard infrastructure on the border, resulting in a return to the troubles. I agree with you here.  There will not be checks on the border post-Brexit, deal or no deal.