webfact Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 Can Prayut avert the approaching perfect storm as chief of economic team? By Wichit Chaitrong The Nation Prime Minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha has decided to chair the Council of Economic Ministers, but will he be able to make any difference to the country’s economy with a looming currency war, ongoing trade wars and the current domestic economic woes? Apparently, he will be replacing Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak, who was responsible for economic affairs under the previous junta-led government. Somkid failed to win any recognition for his work, and latest opinion polls suggest that people are sceptical about the new government’s ability to carry out its election pledges. However, Prayut has decided to take the leadership not because he knows more about economy than Somkid, but because he wants to coordinate the work of different ministers representing parties in the coalition. “I think Somkid is still the real head of the economic team, but Prayut may be helping to coordinate with ministers from different parties,” said Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, assistant managing director at Phatra Securities. Now the question is, will Prayut and Somkid manage the economy better together than Somkid on his own? The transition to a civilian rule may provide some leeway, as many countries – who had refused to make trade deals with the junta-led government – may change their mind. The European Union and the US may be willing to sign free-trade deals with this government, as it is an elected one, said Titipol Phakdeewanich, dean of the political science faculty at Ubon Ratchathani University. Vietnam and Singapore, both competitors of Thailand, have signed free-trade deals with the US and EU and are in a position to boost their exports. Thai exports, meanwhile, have been suffering a severe contraction, especially due to the global economic slowdown. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo recently said in a visit to Thailand that he welcomed the new government and promised to work with Prayut. Titipol, however, was cautious. “The West may still keep a close eye on Thailand to see if the country is really returning to democracy and if the new government upholds human rights,” he warned. This is partly because local and foreign academics, as well as international media, have accused the military of rigging the March elections to favour its allies at the expense of other parties. Whether Thailand will return to genuine democracy will be judged by how the government amends the military-sponsored Constitution. The opposition parties, especially Future Forward Party, have been pushing for amendments that will make the Constitution more democratic. Titipol is sceptical, saying the coalition may push the amendment of the charter in such a way that it affects FWP’s growing influence and popularity. The current system of counting votes more or less favours new political parties such as FWP, he said. The government also failed to win any support when presenting its policies in Parliament, with the opposition MPs firing back during the debate, saying nothing on offer was concrete. Independent economist Pairoj Vongvipanond also said the policies presented were vague. This is because the parties that joined the coalition did not have enough time to put together a concrete plan of action. “This was one of the worst policy platforms ever,” Pairoj said. While the strengthening of the baht has been partly blamed for the contraction in exports, potential negative impact on tourism and local consumption, Pipat said he has yet to see an effective solution to deal with the currency appreciation. He said the central bank’s latest measures to curb short-term capital inflow is likely to be ineffective, because the amount of capital flowing in is relatively small compared to Thailand’s current account surplus accumulated for several years, he said. The current account surplus driven by tourism income and a low level of investment is the real cause of the baht’s appreciation, and so far, no clear action has been taken to deal with it, he said. Even the central bank’s rate cut on Wednesday may not help that much, because the central banks of India and New Zealand also announced rate cuts on the same day and other central banks in the region may follow suit and make larger cuts. The government’s flagship Eastern Economic Corridor project may draw some investment, but it will not be much initially, Pipat added. It also remains to be seen if foreign investors are willing to put their money in the region. The recent blasts in Bangkok have further complicated the investment climate, and if there are more such explosions, it might significantly damage the confidence of both investors and consumers. A Japanese diplomat, who asked not to be named, told The Nation that Japanese expats in Thailand were worried about the incident. Given a slowdown in global growth, the threat of a prolonged US-China trade war, and the impacts of drought and deepening local economic slowdown, Prayut and his Cabinet face a lot of challenges ahead. “All engines of growth have apparently been subdued and there is a perfect economic storm waiting to hit us,” Pipat said. The first line of defence was the Bank of Thailand’s decision to cut the policy rate on Wednesday by 25 basis points to 1.5 per cent in a move to shore up the economy. However, it remains to be seen how much it can actually stop the economy from sliding below the 3-per-cent growth. The rate cut may also encourage commercial banks to cut their interest rates, providing some relief to consumers and investors. However, given the sheer scale of economic risks, it will require smart moves by the government to deal with it. Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/premium/30374443 -- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2019-08-08 Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking Thailand news and visa info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post rkidlad Posted August 8, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted August 8, 2019 5 minutes ago, webfact said: Now the question is, will Prayut and Somkid manage the economy better together than Somkid on his own? Prayut can't even read from a script properly. He has no knowledge of the economy or business. Of course adding him won't be better. He's a former soldier, for heaven's sake. 7 minutes ago, webfact said: The European Union and the US may be willing to sign free-trade deals with this government, as it is an elected one 7 minutes ago, webfact said: Titipol, however, was cautious. “The West may still keep a close eye on Thailand to see if the country is really returning to democracy You mean you can't just say, "we come from democracy" and be treated as if you're a real democracy? You have to actually behave and act like one? This seems awfully unfair. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post YetAnother Posted August 8, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted August 8, 2019 10 minutes ago, webfact said: “The West may still keep a close eye on Thailand to see if the country is really returning to democracy thailand's facades are well known to international observers 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thirdleg Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post thirdleg Posted August 8, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted August 8, 2019 The ultimate micro manager with a microscopic brain 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post FarFlungFalang Posted August 8, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted August 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, YetAnother said: thailand's facades are well known to international observers That will remain so for as long as those in charge assume that the international observers are as dumb as those in charge think they are.They seem to actually believe they're superior in intellect than the rest of the world.They refuse to admit that the world won't fall for the stupid spin they put out. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
worgeordie Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 If something goes wrong it won't be his fault,anybody else's regards Worgeordie 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post thaiguzzi Posted August 8, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted August 8, 2019 19 minutes ago, rkidlad said: He's a former soldier, for heaven's sake. Is there any proof out there that he was even a good soldier? 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post geoffbezoz Posted August 8, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted August 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, thaiguzzi said: Is there any proof out there that he was even a good soldier? Well as he was in charge of the army in 2010 and thus responsible for all those death in Sukhimvit including the murder of the nurse in the Wat by army snipers, I'll leave it up to others to determine if he was good or bad or not Royal Thai Army. No. 37 Rank General Name Prayut Chan-o-cha Term begins 2010 Term ends 2014 https://www.hrw.org/news/2012/08/23/thailand-army-chief-interfering-investigations 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post thirdleg Posted August 8, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted August 8, 2019 12 minutes ago, thaiguzzi said: Is there any proof out there that he was even a good soldier? 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RotBenz8888 Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 40 minutes ago, webfact said: However, given the sheer scale of economic risks, it will require smart moves by the government to deal with it. TAT, please increase the numbers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post RotBenz8888 Posted August 8, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted August 8, 2019 Just now, thirdleg said: Mommy, mommy!!! 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post thirdleg Posted August 8, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted August 8, 2019 Just now, RotBenz8888 said: Mommy, mommy!!! 2 minutes ago, thirdleg said: A lot of fuss being made over a small prick!! 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post geoffbezoz Posted August 8, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted August 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, thirdleg said: That swamp monster must be his favourite nurse 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geoffbezoz Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 Just now, thirdleg said: A lot of fuss being made over a small prick!! You mean the lady boy far left ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post JAG Posted August 8, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted August 8, 2019 14 minutes ago, thaiguzzi said: Is there any proof out there that he was even a good soldier? Medals, wings, assorted other military bling... ???? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post bluesofa Posted August 8, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted August 8, 2019 48 minutes ago, webfact said: Can Prayut avert the approaching perfect storm as chief of economic team? Shurely shome mishtake? As someone accused of not being honest, I think there must be a misspelling of 'chief' above - it needs the superfluous 'i' removing, as I'd assume he couldn't resist cooking the books to suit his needs. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soalbundy Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 21 minutes ago, thaiguzzi said: Is there any proof out there that he was even a good soldier? He is PM so whatever, he is doing better than all of us. As I have said before, you have no control, it is as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wendyfromoz Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 Head of economics, the DSI and numerous other departments. How does he find time to be P.M? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmsally Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 If a few people are given control of the economy, one can't help thinking that they should be forced to hold all their assets in THB domestically first. Although not a sure thing it would certainly be a bit of a hedge against rash decisions. As we know most decisions here are based on self interest, so it would certainly do no harm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Eric Loh Posted August 8, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted August 8, 2019 Facts don't lie. Thailand lost 5 years of economic opportunities. We lost massive FDI to Vietnam and Philippines, couldn't conclude any free trade deals with EU, frivolous spending on defense, delayed dispensation of budget for infrastructure projects, lost the courage to implement new inheritance and land taxes and lacking any competence, vision and leadership in the post coup government. Yet some still fool themselves thinking the same team will improve the economy and avert a raging world crisis. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Cadbury Posted August 8, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted August 8, 2019 1 hour ago, webfact said: Apparently, he will be replacing Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak Seems like Somkid the Sleek has been shafted and sidelined in favour of the economic wizardry and management skills of the PM. I am guessing some economic frog stroking will be included in the fix. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarFlungFalang Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 49 minutes ago, thirdleg said: A lot of fuss being made over a small prick!! "What a nasty little prick" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarFlungFalang Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 (edited) The guy can't even recite an oath without stuffing it let alone running a country without doing likewise and the rest of the country just stand idly by watching him do it!I guess that's why they call it "Amazing Thailand". Edited August 8, 2019 by FarFlungFalang 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klauskunkel Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 5 hours ago, webfact said: Now the question is, will Prayut and Somkid manage the economy better together than Somkid on his own? what kind of question is that? rhetorical? funny? serious? absurd? I can't make up my mind..., maybe it's entertaining! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isaan sailor Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 Sure, why not let the wolf guard the henhouse? He’s best buds with the ChiComs, you know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerkinsCuthbert Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 (edited) "Can Prayut avert the approaching perfect storm as chief of economic team?" Does the Pope enjoy a fat profiterole? Edited August 8, 2019 by PerkinsCuthbert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluesofa Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, PerkinsCuthbert said: "Can Prayut avert the approaching perfect storm as chief of economic team?" Does the Pope enjoy a fat profiterole? Ha? Yes, I think he is one. Btw, there are 290 calories in 1 profiterole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyL Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 I highly doubt it. I am not sure what experience he has had being a military bootlicker that enables him to be a successful economic chief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul Henry Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 Why note appoint a suitably qualified person to the job. Nobody can be a master of all knowledge and skills. Riding shotgun on a void leads to a bigger void. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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