Trade war escalation nudges U.S. closer to recession: Reuters poll

By Shrutee Sarkar

 

FILE PHOTO: A stack of shipping containers are pictured in the Port of Miami in Miami, Florida, U.S., May 19, 2016. REUTERS/Carlo Allegri/File Photo

 

BENGALURU (Reuters) - The recent escalation in the U.S.-China trade war has brought forward the next U.S. recession, according to a majority of economists polled by Reuters who now expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates again in September and once more next year.

 

Despite expectations for further easing, the Aug 6-8 poll gave a median 45% probability of the U.S. economy slipping into a recession in the next two years, up from 35% in the previous poll and the highest since that question was first asked in May 2018.

 

A closely-watched bond market gauge of U.S. recession risk flashed its biggest warning since March 2007 on Monday, underscoring concerns the spillover from the battle between the world's two biggest economies over trade will accelerate a global downturn.

 

For a Reuters poll graphic on U.S. recession probability, click https://tmsnrt.rs/2O50W4M?eikon=true 

 

Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump said a 10% tariff on an additional $300 billion of Chinese goods will be added, starting Sept. 1 and Washington on Monday branded China a currency manipulator.

 

Beijing warned that move would "severely damage international financial order and cause chaos in financial markets," while preventing a global economic recovery.

 

Nearly 70% of economists responding to an additional question said the latest developments had brought the next U.S. recession closer.

 

"Certainly, escalating trade tensions through higher tariffs and restricted access to markets is hurting sentiment, increasing costs, damaging supply chains and weakening corporate profitability," wrote James Knightley, chief international economist at ING.

 

"This then feeds through into consumer sentiment and spending more broadly in the economy with recession risks mounting."

 

With the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation - core PCE prices - not expected to rise significantly, the central bank is forecast to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, taking the fed funds rate to 1.75-2.00%. It is then expected to ease again late next year.

 

Last month, economists predicted a follow-up rate cut after July's in the fourth quarter, but no more through next year.

 

Financial market traders have ramped up bets for more rate cuts, pricing in September, followed by another 25 basis point cut in October, and a more than a 40% chance of another in December.

 

But it is not clear policymakers are keen to cut rates again, let alone several, especially after Fed Chair Jerome Powell downplayed the latest reduction as "a mid-cycle adjustment to policy."

 

"By cutting rates, the Fed is unintentionally underwriting the trade war," said Aditya Bhave, senior global economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

 

"We worry about an adverse feedback loop in which the Fed eases and things get better: financial markets, the economy and so on. That encourages more escalation in the trade war - things get worse and then the Fed eases again."

 

Indeed, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said this week that the central bank would not deliver an interest rate cut each time there were policy threats or announcements on the trade war that roiled markets.

 

Asked if the U.S. economy needs more rate cuts this year nearly three-quarters of respondents said yes. But the rest did not.

 

"The Fed is under the illusion that this is a mid-cycle adjustment, and that by delivering a few insurance cuts they can defer the recession," said Philip Marey, senior U.S. strategist at Rabobank.

 

"They don't need to cut at the moment. But in their calculation they think if they do it now then they won't have to later, and I think that will all be in vain."

 

According to the latest Reuters poll, U.S. economic growth was forecast to slow to an annualised rate of 1.8% by end-2020 from the 2.1% reported for last quarter and well below the 3.1% rate in the first.

 

That consensus was little changed from last month, even though a higher number of economists now predict a substantial slowdown despite the shift in expectations for Fed easing.

 

The more difficult prediction is trying to gauge what President Trump will do or say next.

 

"Trump is playing a game of chicken. He thinks by adding more punitive measures...he will bring down the Chinese economy and force them to act quickly," Rabobank's Marey said.

 

"He hopes in the end the Chinese will blink and come to the table and give him what he wants."

 

(Additional reporting by Mumal Rathore; Polling by Sarmista Sen and Anisha Sheth; Editing by Ross Finley and Alistair Bell)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-08-09

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...and so everything's going to plan. Putin's plan that is.

say what you want about the Russians, but they certainly know how to choose the right man for the job.

1 minute ago, grumbleweed said:

...and so everything's going to plan. Putin's plan that is.

say what you want about the Russians, but they certainly know how to choose the right man for the job.

And you think that if the US enters a recession Trump will make even a remote chance of being reelected?

2 minutes ago, ThePioneer said:

And you think that if the US enters a recession Trump will make even a remote chance of being reelected?

That is a plus point of course, especially if he can be tried for crimes committed while in office after he is thrown out.

We all wait with bated breath for news of how the drunken spendthrift hypocrites of the D party are going to fund their cocaine fantasies.

The amount of 'American Fed Debt' China has purchased, if they demanded payment, China owns America without a shot being fired.

11 minutes ago, wombat said:

The amount of 'American Fed Debt' China has purchased, if they demanded payment, China owns America without a shot being fired.

You mean China purchased all those bonds and they can demand payment at any given date, because thare is no maturing date on them??

 

Now that s scary, or you are posting from a bar stool.

51 minutes ago, ThePioneer said:

You mean China purchased all those bonds and they can demand payment at any given date, because thare is no maturing date on them??

 

Now that s scary, or you are posting from a bar stool.

China is perfectly entitled to sell its debt, flooding the market with bonds, which will crucify the US economy and completely trash their credit rating... it would be a global economic disaster.

 

maturation of debt, most long held, is not in the equation.

 

this announcement will bolster Chinese resolve, and will be touted as proof positive that the trump is loosing his war.... hopefully China will act responsibly to preserve global markets, over the next year, as the trump cannot be trusted with matters of global import

1 hour ago, wombat said:

The amount of 'American Fed Debt' China has purchased, if they demanded payment, China owns America without a shot being fired.

 

Ah, good old Steve Sjuggerud (what a name!)....from those lovely Agora people who own Porter Stansbury.

 

For a good example of the fraud perpetrated by this company, see

 

https://www.sec.gov/litigation/complaints/comp18090.htm

Of course it is. Trump the WWF style negotiator is a sabateur of an economy that was doing ok. Trade wars harm the economy. He just assumes China is going to cave. They were waging wars 1000 years before the settlers came to America. The truth is, the Chinese have alot to teach Trump. Like how to lose an election over stubbornness, and silliness, and economic stupidity. 

 

If there is one truth in all of this, it is that Trump really needs to learn how to negotiate and put a deal together, before he bankrupts the nation. He is beyond inept. 

34 minutes ago, jany123 said:

China is perfectly entitled to sell its debt, flooding the market with bonds, which will crucify the US economy and completely trash their credit rating... it would be a global economic disaster.

 

maturation of debt, most long held, is not in the equation.

 

this announcement will bolster Chinese resolve, and will be touted as proof positive that the trump is loosing his war.... hopefully China will act responsibly to preserve global markets, over the next year, as the trump cannot be trusted with matters of global import

That's right. However, it's not that easy.

Once they'd start to do that the USD would collapse, and so the value of their bonds and currency reserve. Additionally, the induced crisis would kill demand from their largest export market.

We are all interdependent now. I guess the Chinese understand it better than the orange moron.

China controls Thai currency.  Ever wonder why the Baht is so strong?  Someone is dumping billions of USD into Bank of Thailand short term bonds—the hot money that’s hurting this economy.  It’s not Americans...

9 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

China controls Thai currency.  Ever wonder why the Baht is so strong?  Someone is dumping billions of USD into Bank of Thailand short term bonds—the hot money that’s hurting this economy.  It’s not Americans...

Let's try to stick to facts.

between this and the pound news the skies in Pattaya will be filled with jumpin' expats..

12 hours ago, webfact said:

... according to a majority of economists polled by Reuters ...

That pretty much says it all for me. Cherry pick your pollee's and you can get any outcome you want. Ask anyone and they'll tell you each day brings us closer to any future recession. I can not predict the future but I do know that it gets closer everyday.

6 hours ago, blazes said:

We all wait with bated breath for news of how the drunken spendthrift hypocrites of the D party are going to fund their cocaine fantasies.

Good point, because the current Democratic president, backed by the previous Democratic controlled  House and the previous Democratic controlled Senate, massively increased deficits during the current Democratic Presidents first 2 years in office. Where, oh where, are those principled Republicans when the nation needs them?

4 hours ago, from the home of CC said:

between this and the pound news the skies in Pattaya will be filled with jumpin' expats..

Why only Pattaya?

Troll posts critical of the source have been removed along with replies.  

 

6 hours ago, IAMHERE said:

That pretty much says it all for me. Cherry pick your pollee's and you can get any outcome you want. Ask anyone and they'll tell you each day brings us closer to any future recession. I can not predict the future but I do know that it gets closer everyday.

Can you can cite trusted economists who stated that the current trade war is not likely to lead to an economic crisis if it goes on?

I already know the answer. You can't.

This trade war would never have happened if we have not voted for Brexit ! ????

14 hours ago, jany123 said:

China is perfectly entitled to sell its debt, flooding the market with bonds, which will crucify the US economy and completely trash their credit rating... it would be a global economic disaster.

 

maturation of debt, most long held, is not in the equation.

 

this announcement will bolster Chinese resolve, and will be touted as proof positive that the trump is loosing his war.... hopefully China will act responsibly to preserve global markets, over the next year, as the trump cannot be trusted with matters of global import

That would be unlikely to happen as the bonds would fall massively in price and China would lose a lot of money, of course they could sell in packages over a series of years but it is far better to have the sword of debt in their hands than to do that. Better would be not to buy any more bonds coming on the market. China also has the precious earth weapon which I am sure they will use sooner or later. Trump said trade wars are good and easy to win, the bull in the china shop has backed itself into a corner. China thinks in decades ahead, the West in two or three years, China has an autocratic leader and can take the pain and still have control, the West have democratic governments and are at the mercy of the whims of a spoilt populace. China will win this trade war and it will be a warning to all future governments, hands off China.

USA is Chicom’s #1 export customer.  No one else even comes close.  That’s why ChiComs devalued the Yuan—they had no choice.

In America the attitude toward China is rapidly changing.  Now both political parties see China for the enemy they’ve become.  And this insight comes from the realization the America created the ChiCom monster—and now we must do something to stop it.

5 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

 

America created the ChiCom monster—and now we must do something to stop it.

An interesting statement....

 

American avarice, chasing higher profits via exploitation of cheap third world country labor, helped kick start the huge manufacturing and industrial capability of emerging China.... and must now destroy it, because they can no longer control or compete with it on a level platform, in order to reduce the staggering debt accrued by the aforementioned avarice.

 

That kind of makes those Divided States a bad debtor.... which should be of absolutely no surprises to anyone, given that the leader of those divided states is a demonstrable repeat offender at debt default, historically bankrupting under performing institution under its control, and defaulting elsewhere on outstanding debt, to cheat its partners  out of what they are owed.

 

If you really want to “stop it”.... stop buying Chinese imports, and support your own industry by buying a non labor exploitive more expensive locally made version.... or... buy one from Australia.... that will work, too. ????