Is the closure of your favorite bar or restaurant imminent?

[kinyara]

Time to change the title of this thread from " closure" to " opening".  ????

[Leaver]

49 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

It was never going anyplace prior... quite the survivor is the six, despite many attempts to put an end to it. Not sure NW have improved business.

Yes, Soi 6 is a survivor, but should The Nightwish Group fold, that's something like 28 bars, all close together, all on one Soi, that all close, virtually overnight.  

 

I doubt new tenants will be lining up for a lease in the present circumstances, and for at least the next 12 months.  Something I am sure the group have discussed with their landlords.  

 

 Picture Soi 6 with around 28 bars closed.  That would be a sad day.  ????

[Leaver]

17 minutes ago, kinyara said:

Time to change the title of this thread from " closure" to " opening".  ????

Perhaps, "Will your favorite bar or restaurant opening again?"  

[kinyara]

42 minutes ago, Leaver said:

Perhaps, "Will your favorite bar or restaurant opening again?"  

I have total confidence my favourite 4 will be among the first to re-open when alllowed to do so. Well established with a solid all year round resident clientele, it will be a low low season for sure but I'm sure they'll continue to turn a profit albeit reduced. They may even benefit a bit from the inevitable thinnning out of the competition. 3 out of the 4 are popular for the restaurant side of their business as well as the bar which will help compared to solely being a bar I think. 

[Leaver]

12 minutes ago, kinyara said:

I have total confidence my favourite 4 will be among the first to re-open when alllowed to do so. Well established with a solid all year round resident clientele, it will be a low low season for sure but I'm sure they'll continue to turn a profit albeit reduced. They may even benefit a bit from the inevitable thinnning out of the competition. 3 out of the 4 are popular for the restaurant side of their business as well as the bar which will help compared to solely being a bar I think. 

"Resident clientele" are not noted for being big spenders.  Do you think your favorite 4 have the funds to stay in the game for the next 12 to 18 months for the tourist clientele? 

 

There are some popular bars and restaurants with expats, but without the tourist numbers, and their money, many of these places may be running at a loss after they open up.    

[WillyPlatt]

The NW group have at least bought and maintened farang style bars. The winners in this would seem to be the people who sold out to them in the last few years.

They took a price and got out.

No matter what you think of them they have kept those bars going and given ex pats and visitors somewhere to go.

I hope they have deep pockets and investors who are prepared to take a long view of Pattaya.

Now is the time to wish them the best for the future. If they go the whole thing could be like a chain of falling dominoes.

 

[kinyara]

For my favourites yes I do as I said in my post, lower profits are inevitable and may not even return to previous levels for a couple of years but I believe each has a formula that works for them and should see them continue to be viable as a growing concern. 

 

" Resident clientele are not noted for being big spenders".  I think that's just another of you're sweeping generalisations you tend to make and I wouldn't say particularly typifies my favourites. 

 

[HashBrownHarry]

9 hours ago, TacoKhun said:

If not for them the street might have gone long ago, replaced by another chinese hotel, think about that 

Had it not been for them the street might have remained a proper sleaze pit which is why it attracted so many people before.

[CHdiver]

2 hours ago, WillyPlatt said:

I hope they have deep pockets and investors who are prepared to take a long view of Pattaya

I did read NW Group is giving out several hundred meals a day to the needy. So I guess they still are ok financially.

[scubascuba3]

On 4/10/2020 at 8:41 AM, scubascuba3 said:

I see more Indian restaurants closed with furniture removed. Also Pitini has closed up and outdoor tables gone, no sign on the front. They didn't embrace takeaway as Hungry Hippo has done so well

Apparently Pitini was paying 120k a month in rent and didn't want to continue, same for 90% of places most likely.

 

Seems sensible for bars\restaurants to throw in the towel early, and reopen when things are looking better, with probably lower rent available

[Leaver]

20 hours ago, kinyara said:

For my favourites yes I do as I said in my post, lower profits are inevitable and may not even return to previous levels for a couple of years but I believe each has a formula that works for them and should see them continue to be viable as a growing concern. 

 

" Resident clientele are not noted for being big spenders".  I think that's just another of you're sweeping generalisations you tend to make and I wouldn't say particularly typifies my favourites. 

 

So, you are saying your 4 favorites will still be profitable, just with profits being lower.  How do you know the operating costs of your 4 favorites?  

 

Maybe their profits were already lower, as the past high season was shaping up to be no high season at all, and any further lowering of profits would see them possibly breaking ever, or worse, running at a loss.  

 

Would you work and/or spend your savings, in any business, just to break even, or run at a loss, for the next 18 months?

 

Bars and restaurants are not charities or essential services. 

[Leaver]

20 hours ago, WillyPlatt said:

I hope they have deep pockets and investors who are prepared to take a long view of Pattaya.

Would you invest in the group now, or Pattaya, in general?

 

20 hours ago, WillyPlatt said:

Now is the time to wish them the best for the future. If they go the whole thing could be like a chain of falling dominoes.

Many bars and restaurants catering for westerners will simply not be able to remain open.  Pattaya will look very different when all of this is over.

 

If The Nightwish Group fold, Soi 6 will be very quiet for years to come, or could possibly die a quick death, rather than a slow one.  

[scubascuba3]

1 hour ago, Leaver said:

 

 

If The Nightwish Group fold, Soi 6 will be very quiet for years to come, or could possibly die a quick death, rather than a slow one.  

Nightwish Group are giving away food every day for 7 days so can't be overly short of cash

[Leaver]

19 hours ago, scubascuba3 said:

Nightwish Group are giving away food every day for 7 days so can't be overly short of cash

Probably food handouts to their staff.  

 

It was a quiet high season before the virus.  Then when news of the virus came to light, it was a dead high season.  Then when the shut downs were ordered, it became zero income.  After the shut downs are lifted, it will be dead for at least 12 months.  Then, as tourists trickle back, it will be quiet for some more months. 

 

Do the math's. That's rent on 28 bars on Soi 6.  Millions of baht every month, with no profits in sight for at least 12 to 18 months.  

 

Say they hand back the keys on only half of their portfolio, that's still 14 bars closed, over night, on Soi 6. 

 

It will be interesting to see what happens, but if The Nightwish Group can't do a deal with their Thai landlords and end up folding, Soi 6 will be a bleak place for well over a year.

[TaaSaparot]

On 4/20/2020 at 6:52 AM, scubascuba3 said:

Apparently Pitini was paying 120k a month in rent and didn't want to continue, same for 90% of places most likely.

120K seems very high?

 

I wonder what they have done with the Khorat branch ... anyone?

[fforest1]

From my observation of the Indian restaurants most seem to be existing in a state suspended animation..Not really quite open but not quite fully out of business....

 

A few look kind of half-ass sorta open but the majority look mostly half-ass closed but not completely out of business......

 

A couple of the half-ass sort of open ones I have not seen a single customer going in to buy any thing in over a month now....

 

So now its pretty clear that their has to be one entity supporting all these Indian restaurants, who now have pretty much zero customers....Single owners would be dropping like flies...

 

Someone is still paying the rent and utilities.......If the rent was not being paid then they would be fully fully lights out, furniture gone, sign gone, fully 100% out of business... 

But they are not.... 

 

 

Edited April 21, 2020 by fforest1

[fforest1]

On 4/20/2020 at 12:52 PM, scubascuba3 said:

Apparently Pitini was paying 120k a month in rent and didn't want to continue, same for 90% of places most likely.

 

Seems sensible for bars\restaurants to throw in the towel early, and reopen when things are looking better, with probably lower rent available

This is a good idea......Close down 100%.....And pay zero rent and zero utilities........And if things get good again...Boom.......Your back in business and you have saved a whole pile of money.......

[scubascuba3]

2 minutes ago, fforest1 said:

This is a good idea......Close down 100%.....And pay zero rent and zero utilities........And if things get good again...Boom.......Your back in business and you have saved a whole pile of money.......

Yes otherwise it's just a slow death most likely.

 

On the subject of Indian restaurants, any remaining have to lower their prices to Thailand levels otherwise they will stay empty until they close. Prices are just out of whack

[WillyPlatt]

The indian restaurants in Pattaya are run by families on a shoe string budget. I would think some have a Indian/Bangladeshi front of house and Thai cooking to keep costs down.

The ones opposite August Suites on pattaya klang seem to get decent size groups in. Some are open 24 hours as well.

They work hard.

Pattaya must be different to the UK, closing the doors doesn't get you out of paying  your rent.

[fforest1]

4 hours ago, WillyPlatt said:

The indian restaurants in Pattaya are run by families on a shoe string budget. I would think some have a Indian/Bangladeshi front of house and Thai cooking to keep costs down.

The ones opposite August Suites on pattaya klang seem to get decent size groups in. Some are open 24 hours as well.

They work hard.

Pattaya must be different to the UK, closing the doors doesn't get you out of paying  your rent.

If the Indian restaurants were operating on a shoe string budget....Just about every last one of them would be 100% out of business now......

 

But they are not out of business.....Hardly any of them....So that only means someone is bankrolling them,someone with HUGE money someone that wants them open no matter how huge past,present or future financial losses will be....Someone prepared to lose loads of money....

Edited April 21, 2020 by fforest1

[jacko45k]

16 hours ago, fforest1 said:

This is a good idea......Close down 100%.....And pay zero rent and zero utilities........And if things get good again...Boom.......Your back in business and you have saved a whole pile of money.......

I was thinking this the other day... someone I can think of having 2 business premises, something to keep him busy, a Westerner. Had I been in his shoes the only option I can think of would have been lay off the staff, close up, lock up, suspend rent payment and head homeward. 

The only way he could survive would be a rent hiatus or severe reduction. 

Edited April 21, 2020 by jacko45k

[Da Nang]

You forgot mention deposit. You walk away then it's lost.

[jacko45k]

20 hours ago, Da Nang said:

You forgot mention deposit. You walk away then it's lost.

If it is less than a few months rent it can save you money... doubt many entertainment places will see less than 2 months total closure. Deposits are also 'lost'  frequently anyhow. 

[Leaver]

On 4/22/2020 at 9:45 AM, jacko45k said:

I was thinking this the other day... someone I can think of having 2 business premises, something to keep him busy, a Westerner. Had I been in his shoes the only option I can think of would have been lay off the staff, close up, lock up, suspend rent payment and head homeward. 

The only way he could survive would be a rent hiatus or severe reduction. 

I agree with you, but I think it would depend on the amount of time left on the lease.  

 

As I previously posted, I spoke to one owner recently who has a lease up for renewal later this year.  He has walked away, and considered himself lucky this crisis happened towards the end of his lease.  He has taken the option you mention.  

 

For a reasonably new lease, say with 3 years to go, that's a difficult decision to make.  With no western tourist numbers expected for 12 to 18 months,  there's no way 18 months of normal operation can make up for 18 months of dead to slow trading. 

 

For those with longer leases, say over 5 years left to run, they possibly could make up for the next 18 months of losses, nut they would have to consider, who, and what, are they actually working for.

 

The small bar owner that lives upstairs and the bar is just a hobby, albeit, an expensive one, will open up when allowed to and continue on, however, the larger establishments that have serious overheads, particularly in rent, they will have to make a hard decision whether to stay in the game, or walk away.

 

This past high season, prior to the virus, was not shaping up well, particularly for western tourist numbers, so I guess less clientele even 18 months from now would have to be factored into the calculations whether it's worth it to keep the doors open.   

 

Those who decide to keep operating, for the sole purpose so they can still have something to sell, may have to come to the realization they could be throwing good money after bad.   

 

A lot of what will happen is in the hands of Thai landlords, who are not known for being ethical, or the slightest bit generous.  

[jacko45k]

14 hours ago, Leaver said:

A lot of what will happen is in the hands of Thai landlords, who are not known for being ethical, or the slightest bit generous.

It is usually in their best interest to change tenants , new lease, new deposit and maybe even new key money. They also seem to be quite accepting of long spells with their property being empty, if they own it outright, the cost are low to keep it empty, and wait for the big payday of a new tenant, wanting a 5 year lease, he would be unlikely to survive. 

Still unusual times ......

Edited April 23, 2020 by jacko45k

[KC 71]

On 4/19/2020 at 3:29 PM, kinyara said:

Time to change the title of this thread from " closure" to " opening".  ????

 

[Leaver]

9 hours ago, jacko45k said:

It is usually in their best interest to change tenants , new lease, new deposit and maybe even new key money. They also seem to be quite accepting of long spells with their property being empty, if they own it outright, the cost are low to keep it empty, and wait for the big payday of a new tenant, wanting a 5 year lease, he would be unlikely to survive. 

Still unusual times ......

Unusual times, indeed. 

 

I agree, many of the leases are designed to fail.  When you say, "long spells" I don't think Pattaya, or Thailand for that matter, would have seen a spell of turmoil quite this long before. 

 

With slim pickings for landlords looking for tenants, it will be interesting to see if many of them value their current tenant at all, by offering a greatly reduced rate for an amount of time, or some other type of rent negotiation.    

 

For those landlords looking to evict, keeping deposit, key money etc, they would have to weigh up if it's worth taking the gamble on being able to get another tenant in the next 18 months or longer, as opposed to a short term gain and having their property vacant. 

 

Some big losses coming for business owners and landlords here. 

[Leaver]

8 hours ago, KC 71 said:

 

Being able to open back up is one thing, being able to absorb losses for at least 12 to 18 months, and still remain open, is a completely different thing. 

[TaaSaparot]

Wow, that was an imaginative name change ..

 

[Leaver]

9 hours ago, TaaSaparot said:

Wow, that was an imaginative name change ..

 

Good to see someone picked it up.  I hope it works out.  I am all for choice and variety here.  I wish them the best of luck.