Thoughts on "will there be a Real High Season" this year?

[fhickson]

14 hours ago, Leaver said:

Yes, I am focused on small expat style food places. 

 

Would you care to comment on how many of them will still be open, say, 2 years from now?

probably the same as now

 

usually the seller has setup just for the sale and gives some excuse about needing to leave the country or some other hardship. does a real limp leaf number over time, after building up trust and association through the restaurant regular clientele with friendly association and drinking together etc.

 

its real common in cambodia. likely less so in thailand as people are not as skint, have more handle on their problems. in cambo they will pocket the sale, move down the street, the regular customers will move to the new place leaving the seller skint. rinse and repeat.

 

goes for the smaller hole in the wall joints, and especially bars. the pig and whistle type you mentioned probably not.

 

note to south though, some of these expat run bars and restaurants have real charasmatic owners who are scum and manipulators and ulterior motives under friendly guise. they use the outlet to fish for victims.

 

so the question is why do you care when there are so many around? do you know someone who is feeding you a line or sob story, or are you looking to open a bar or restaurant? is there a particular place your worried about closing and why? is it just the food? someone above mentioned you keep posting about expat type places, why?

 

[Leaver]

On 9/18/2019 at 5:20 AM, fhickson said:

probably the same as now

Good post.  I will address it.  Firstly, Pattaya is not the same now, as it was just a few years ago.  The massive influx in the last 2 to 3 years has now seen the majority of tourists to Pattaya now being Chinese package holiday tourists.

 

On 9/18/2019 at 5:20 AM, fhickson said:

usually the seller has setup just for the sale and gives some excuse about needing to leave the country or some other hardship.

Sure.  We've all heard this BS, but that was when there actually was a potential buyer.  Nothing moving now, except for The Nightwish Group buying on Soi 6.  Would you buy into Pattaya now, in the current climate?  Many will be left with something they can not sell, if not already.  The days of the newbie western falling in love with a bar girl and buying her a bar are over.

 

On 9/18/2019 at 5:20 AM, fhickson said:

its real common in cambodia. likely less so in thailand as people are not as skint, have more handle on their problems. in cambo they will pocket the sale, move down the street, the regular customers will move to the new place leaving the seller skint. rinse and repeat.

Sure.  We've seen this before, but with no buyers at the moment, and the majority of the market now not being European, American and Australia, there's no "rinse and repeat" as many just want out.

 

On 9/18/2019 at 5:20 AM, fhickson said:

goes for the smaller hole in the wall joints, and especially bars. the pig and whistle type you mentioned probably not.

 

The hole in the wall places, as well as the run down beer bar complexes are gone.  You would not expect this fate of a well established place like The Pig and Whilst, yet, it's gone.  Just an example as to why I started the thread, "Is the closure of your favorite bar or restaurant imminent?" 

 

On 9/18/2019 at 5:20 AM, fhickson said:

note to south though, some of these expat run bars and restaurants have real charasmatic owners who are scum and manipulators and ulterior motives under friendly guise. they use the outlet to fish for victims.

Sure.  It's happened in the past, but less westerns here now equals less potential victims. 

 

On 9/18/2019 at 5:20 AM, fhickson said:

so the question is why do you care when there are so many around?

Probably because I can see there will not be so many around in the future, replace with businesses catering for the Chinese and Indians.  Then, WE ALL lack variety and choice. 

 

On 9/18/2019 at 5:20 AM, fhickson said:

do you know someone who is feeding you a line or sob story,

No.  People know me better than that.  I just laugh at them half way through their first sentence.  ????

 

On 9/18/2019 at 5:20 AM, fhickson said:

or are you looking to open a bar or restaurant?

Definitely not.  Even if I won a huge prize in the lottery, I wouldn't touch anything here. 

 

On 9/18/2019 at 5:20 AM, fhickson said:

is there a particular place your worried about closing and why?

There's several places I am concerned will not be here in 6 to 12 months, and a few places I know most probably still will be.  So I can see many being rammed into what few do survive.

 

On 9/18/2019 at 5:20 AM, fhickson said:

is it just the food?

Food is one thing.  Yes, I do like some comfort food from back home a couple of times a week.  Same with beverage.  However, it extends past food and beverage to social gatherings, such as quiz, darts, golf, island visits etc.  The owners of certain establishments organize these events. 

 

On 9/18/2019 at 5:20 AM, fhickson said:

someone above mentioned you keep posting about expat type places, why?

Because I don't like eating rice 3 times a day, 7 days a week.  ????

 

[champers]

5 hours ago, Leaver said:

Good post.  I will address it.  Firstly, Pattaya is not the same now, as it was just a few years ago.  The massive influx in the last 2 to 3 years has now seen the majority of tourists to Pattaya now being Chinese package holiday tourists.

 

Sure.  We've all heard this BS, but that was when there actually was a potential buyer.  Nothing moving now, except for The Nightwish Group buying on Soi 6.  Would you buy into Pattaya now, in the current climate?  Many will be left with something they can not sell, if not already.  The days of the newbie western falling in love with a bar girl and buying her a bar are over.

 

Sure.  We've seen this before, but with no buyers at the moment, and the majority of the market now not being European, American and Australia, there's no "rinse and repeat" as many just want out.

 

The hole in the wall places, as well as the run down beer bar complexes are gone.  You would not expect this fate of a well established place like The Pig and Whilst, yet, it's gone.  Just an example as to why I started the thread, "Is the closure of your favorite bar or restaurant imminent?" 

 

Sure.  It's happened in the past, but less westerns here now equals less potential victims. 

 

Probably because I can see there will not be so many around in the future, replace with businesses catering for the Chinese and Indians.  Then, WE ALL lack variety and choice. 

 

No.  People know me better than that.  I just laugh at them half way through their first sentence.  ????

 

Definitely not.  Even if I won a huge prize in the lottery, I wouldn't touch anything here. 

 

There's several places I am concerned will not be here in 6 to 12 months, and a few places I know most probably still will be.  So I can see many being rammed into what few do survive.

 

Food is one thing.  Yes, I do like some comfort food from back home a couple of times a week.  Same with beverage.  However, it extends past food and beverage to social gatherings, such as quiz, darts, golf, island visits etc.  The owners of certain establishments organize these events. 

 

Because I don't like eating rice 3 times a day, 7 days a week.  ????

 

Your premise falls flat on its face in your first paragraph. The majority of Chinese visitors are now free independant travellers (FIT) and the percentage of FIT visitors is increasing against those in organised tour groups. There are GGBs that specifically cater to groups of young Chinese males (e.g. Panda). There is also a host of new or newish restaurants for them.

Chinese and other non falang groupings will happily go to "falang" establishments if they get the message that they are welcome there. Places that want to keep themselves as falang only will slowly fade away, others that embrace allcomers will prosper. Same applies to Chinese only places or Indian only.

[jacko45k]

12 hours ago, champers said:

Your premise falls flat on its face in your first paragraph. The majority of Chinese visitors are now free independant travellers (FIT) and the percentage of FIT visitors is increasing against those in organised tour groups. There are GGBs that specifically cater to groups of young Chinese males (e.g. Panda). There is also a host of new or newish restaurants for them.

Chinese and other non falang groupings will happily go to "falang" establishments if they get the message that they are welcome there. Places that want to keep themselves as falang only will slowly fade away, others that embrace allcomers will prosper. Same applies to Chinese only places or Indian only.

Well you mentioned the one GGB, Panda, not sure where you get the plural from. How do you know the majority are free independant travellers? I don't deny you may be correct, but from my perspective, living in Pattaya area, they still seem to be mainly groups being herded about like sheep. There are gazillons of them, so if they are the minority I don't know where the rest are!

Indian only places, they have opened hundreds of restaurants around town and can't even persuade their own people to use them, all devoid of customers, talk about over saturation. Their attempts at bars have all failed. 

[Leaver]

17 hours ago, champers said:

The majority of Chinese visitors are now free independant travellers (FIT)

 

Which equates to foreign backpackers.  Yeah, big money in that demographic.  ????

 

 

[Leaver]

On 9/20/2019 at 8:29 AM, jacko45k said:

I don't deny you may be correct, but from my perspective, living in Pattaya area, they still seem to be mainly groups being herded about like sheep.

This is what I see, and the accommodation, transport, and many meals and activities, all paid for in China, before they even fly out.

 

Chinese owned hotels, restaurants, businesses, so any profits are repatriated back to China.

 

All there is for Thailand / Pattaya are some 300 baht per day jobs for Thai's. 

 

Thailand / Pattaya makes practically no money out of this package holiday tourism, hence, they are called "zero baht tourists." 

[Leaver]

On 9/19/2019 at 7:50 PM, champers said:

Places that want to keep themselves as falang only will slowly fade away, others that embrace allcomers will prosper. Same applies to Chinese only places or Indian only.

 

I think you will find places that keep themselves farang only will eventually be bought by Chinese and / or Indians, and turned into an establishment catering for their fellow countrymen.

 

That said, even with so many Indian restaurants popping up here now, there are no customers in them.  I gather they can get better Indian food back home, for a fraction of the price. 

 

What would / could / should a western business do to pull in the Chinese and Indians, should they want to? 

 

[champers]

32 minutes ago, Leaver said:

 

I think you will find places that keep themselves farang only will eventually be bought by Chinese and / or Indians, and turned into an establishment catering for their fellow countrymen.

 

That said, even with so many Indian restaurants popping up here now, there are no customers in them.  I gather they can get better Indian food back home, for a fraction of the price. 

 

What would / could / should a western business do to pull in the Chinese and Indians, should they want to? 

 

Not sure about Indians, but menus in Chinese or announcements about Happy Hours will get them in.

Golden Week in China from 1st - 7th October starts next week, so many more visitors in that spell.

[Leaver]

8 minutes ago, champers said:

Not sure about Indians, but menus in Chinese or announcements about Happy Hours will get them in.

Can the happy hour prices compete with 7/11 and Family Mart prices? ????

 

The want high end tourism, but it's a race to the bottom with these tourist demographics.

 

 

[The Deerhunter]

These tourism fads are cyclical and the Thai sector of over 40 years in the cycle has been lucky way beyond most other recipients of the benefits of changing travel fads.  Spain, Greece, Adriatic coast, Bali, you name it.  Numerous sunny parts of several continents.  They are lucky for a while and then the hoards move on to the next place offering sun, sea, sex a welcoming non-exploitive attitude to foreigners and a good exchange rate.  Viet Nam looks to be the current fad.  Probably many others too who still realise that they must compete with the things tourist want, and at a good rate for their own currency.  It is a big changing world out there.  Some people here want to go back to the pre Vietnam war past and we see the results in the tourism industry.  

[VocalNeal]

24 minutes ago, Leaver said:

Can the happy hour prices compete with 7/11 and Family Mart prices? ????

Reality is that when you order a beer in a bar, only part of the cost is the actual beer. It's like coffee in Starbucks. 

 

Aircon? Staff? Music? et al...

[spidermike007]

There will be a high season, but it will be as weak as last year. Consumer confidence seems to be on the wane, worldwide. The US economy is showing signs of faltering. The baht is way too high, and when you combine that with the 20 or 30 huge mistakes Thailand, and the administration has made over the past several years, tourism will continue to dwindle over the next decade, in my opinion. The neighbors are trying way too hard, and making alot of progress. They really seem to care, and it appears that Thailand does not.

 

For decades, Thailand thought it was the center of the known universe, and that nobody would ever even consider an alternative place to visit, or to live. But, that is apparently not the case, and the country is suffering. Sure, the numbers are still up, according to the TAT anyway. One can believe them at their own peril. But, the quality of tourists has dropped, and the income is nowhere near what it used to be. 

 

My heart goes out to the common folks here. Most are really decent, hard working people, who do not deserve this kind of abuse from an arrogant and completely incompetent government, immigration department, tourism ministry, and army. What can one even say about the army? Do they serve any useful function for Thai society, on any level? 

[Leaver]

23 hours ago, VocalNeal said:

Reality is that when you order a beer in a bar, only part of the cost is the actual beer. It's like coffee in Starbucks. 

 

Aircon? Staff? Music? et al...

Yes, I am aware of this, but try telling the Chinese and Indians they should pay for the beer, and pay for the environment it's served in, when they can buy just the beer, and drink it in their hotel, or whilst walking along the street. 

[joeyg]

When I started this thread it was out of curiosity.  It has been very revealing as usual. I cook 99% at home because I prefer and like my own healthy food. For me there's only one reason to be in Pattaya.  Honestly I can't understand why families and "other" tourist come here. You can't even go in the water it's so filthy. Anyway it still works for me. Although other places Are looking like better possibilities. I've seen the changes this place has gone through since 1971. I still have more fun than I can handle and that's the only reason I'm here. Why families come here and wheel their strollers, three kids in tow, down soi six is a mystery of the universe to me. However I do find it funny as hell just adds to the entertainment.  Thank you I have found the opinions and bantering on this thread fascinating.

[chrisandsu]

1 hour ago, joeyg said:

Why families come here and wheel their strollers, three kids in tow, down soi six is a mystery of the universe to me. However I do find it funny as hell just adds to the entertainment.  Thank you I have found the opinions and bantering on this thread fascinating.

Maybe daddy is showing the kids where him and mummy went on there first short time ? 

[jacko45k]

3 hours ago, Leaver said:

Yes, I am aware of this, but try telling the Chinese and Indians they should pay for the beer, and pay for the environment it's served in, when they can buy just the beer, and drink it in their hotel, or whilst walking along the street. 

Or simply walk in and gawp and refuse to sit down and buy a drink!

[fhickson]

2 hours ago, jacko45k said:

Or simply walk in and gawp and refuse to sit down and buy a drink!

plenty of indians and chinese patronizing places in their home countries.

 

figure out why they are uncomfortable in your establishment and adapt, or sit back and complain and wait for more catering places to pop up and serve this crowd. eliminate bar fines and get rid of western toilets would be a good start.

[jacko45k]

14 hours ago, fhickson said:

plenty of indians and chinese patronizing places in their home countries.

 

figure out why they are uncomfortable in your establishment and adapt, or sit back and complain and wait for more catering places to pop up and serve this crowd. eliminate bar fines and get rid of western toilets would be a good start.

Are you under some impression I run some business  venture in Thailand? No, I am retired.

The reason they do not sit down is they want free entertainment and are too cheap to pay for it! Are you being ironic in suggesting replacing toilets with holes in the ground and a bowl of (deleted) water?

[Leaver]

18 hours ago, fhickson said:

plenty of indians and chinese patronizing places in their home countries.

 

That's because food and beverage is cheaper in their home countries than in Thailand / Pattaya. 

[Leaver]

On 9/27/2019 at 9:48 AM, jacko45k said:

The reason they do not sit down is they want free entertainment and are too cheap to pay for it!

I agree, but it's also possible that they simple can't afford it. 

[jacko45k]

47 minutes ago, Leaver said:

I agree, but it's also possible that they simple can't afford it. 

Either way mate... not good for business! Can't afford it, try elsewhere. 

[champers]

On 9/25/2019 at 10:29 AM, spidermike007 said:

There will be a high season, but it will be as weak as last year. Consumer confidence seems to be on the wane, worldwide. The US economy is showing signs of faltering. The baht is way too high, and when you combine that with the 20 or 30 huge mistakes Thailand, and the administration has made over the past several years, tourism will continue to dwindle over the next decade, in my opinion. The neighbors are trying way too hard, and making alot of progress. They really seem to care, and it appears that Thailand does not.

 

For decades, Thailand thought it was the center of the known universe, and that nobody would ever even consider an alternative place to visit, or to live. But, that is apparently not the case, and the country is suffering. Sure, the numbers are still up, according to the TAT anyway. One can believe them at their own peril. But, the quality of tourists has dropped, and the income is nowhere near what it used to be. 

 

My heart goes out to the common folks here. Most are really decent, hard working people, who do not deserve this kind of abuse from an arrogant and completely incompetent government, immigration department, tourism ministry, and army. What can one even say about the army? Do they serve any useful function for Thai society, on any level? 

The army functions for high Thai society and their leadership are part of the group.

[brokenbone]

when i went out some month ago it was mostly chinese i saw in the gogo bars, they seem to spend roughly same as westerners, i.e beer for them self and a few lady drinks,

no barfine

[spidermike007]

1 hour ago, champers said:

The army functions for high Thai society and their leadership are part of the group.

Exactly as I said. Useless. 

[jacko45k]

15 hours ago, brokenbone said:

when i went out some month ago it was mostly chinese i saw in the gogo bars, they seem to spend roughly same as westerners, i.e beer for them self and a few lady drinks,

no barfine

More likely Korean or Japanese perhaps. 

They could be ethnic Chinese from Taiwan, Singapore or Hong Kong too.

Mainland Chinese are still mostly in large groups being herded about and not found in Go-Go or beer bars. 

[Leaver]

18 hours ago, jacko45k said:

Either way mate... not good for business! Can't afford it, try elsewhere. 

I agree, but they keep flying them in on cheap package holidays, and they spend nothing when they are here. 

 

They get the flights, accommodation, land transport, most meals, and some activities, all at the rock bottom lowest possible price, and they spend not much more after that for their 10 day holiday.  

[madmen]

2 hours ago, jacko45k said:

Chinese are still mostly in large groups being herded about and not found in Go-Go or beer bars. 

Why do people assume they should be in go go bars? There are a ton female and couples in the malls in Bangkok and no they are not flag followers and according to MasterCard they are big spenders

[Leaver]

8 minutes ago, madmen said:

Why do people assume they should be in go go bars? There are a ton female and couples in the malls in Bangkok and no they are not flag followers and according to MasterCard they are big spenders

It's not about they must / should go into GoGo bars.  It's about hospitality establishments, serving F & B, and including GoGo bars, are so many in Pattaya.  They were built to cater for the western market, and yes, that includes sex tourists, which used to be the main market here. 

 

Now, the main market here is Chinese and Indian package holiday tourists, who in general, do not indulge in this type of behaviour and / or entertainment on their holiday. 

 

This puts pressure on GoGo bars, traditional beer bars, and restaurants, to keep operating.  In my opinion, many will close in the near future.

 

 

[kinyara]

Leaver, you're endless waffle regarding declining Western tourist numbers simply isn't backed up by any factual information. There is a very simple analysis on Wikipedia of the top 25 countries by numbers year by year and you can have a look at the Western countries in that list, most are on an upward trend, some have declined marginally only in the last year and only Sweden show a high % decline but they are down in 24th in significance anyway.

 

But carry on telling us how you know the economics of every bar and restaurant in Pattaya, how much and where every Chinese and Indian spends their money, the till receipts of every shop in T21 and Central etc etc zzzzzzz

 

Are ThaiVisa paying you to keep these doom and gloom clickbait threads running lol ?

[Leaver]

35 minutes ago, kinyara said:

Leaver, you're endless waffle regarding declining Western tourist numbers simply isn't backed up by any factual information. There is a very simple analysis on Wikipedia of the top 25 countries by numbers year by year and you can have a look at the Western countries in that list, most are on an upward trend, some have declined marginally only in the last year and only Sweden show a high % decline but they are down in 24th in significance anyway.

 

But carry on telling us how you know the economics of every bar and restaurant in Pattaya, how much and where every Chinese and Indian spends their money, the till receipts of every shop in T21 and Central etc etc zzzzzzz

 

Are ThaiVisa paying you to keep these doom and gloom clickbait threads running lol ?

Rather than personally attacking me, how about you post your observations, not point in the direction of rubbery figures from TAT. 

 

Are you saying bars, nightclubs, massage shops, hotels, guest houses restaurants, GoGo shows etc are busy?

 

Of course they are not busy because it's low season.  Right?  Firstly, this is the lowest low season I have ever seen, and if you took out the non-spending Chinese and Indians, it would be a ghost town.

 

Your belief that westerners will again flock back to Pattaya early November, continuing to mid April, is based on what?  I have stated many reasons why I think they will not be.  Perhaps you can state why you think they will be.