UK economy on track to dodge pre-Brexit recession but outlook weak

[snoop1130]

UK economy on track to dodge pre-Brexit recession but outlook weak

By David Milliken, William Schomberg

 

FILE PHOTO: British port police patrol as the largest container ship in world, CSCL Globe, docks during its maiden voyage, at the port of Felixstowe in south east England, January 7, 2015. REUTERS/Toby Melville (BRITAIN - Tags: BUSINESS CRIME LAW MARITIME SOCIETY) - GM1EB1809GB01/File Photo

 

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain’s sluggish economy looks to have dodged recession in the run-up to its deadline for leaving the European Union this month, official data showed on Thursday.

 

Gross domestic product in the three months to August was 0.3% higher than in the previous three months, beating all forecasts in a Reuters poll of economists and accelerating from an upwardly revised 0.1% in the three months to July.

 

However, the stronger performance largely reflected data revisions to earlier months and the most recent figures were weak.

 

Output in August alone dropped by 0.1% on the month versus economists’ average forecast for it to hold steady, while growth in July was revised up to 0.4%, the Office for National Statistics said.

 

Sterling edged up against the U.S. dollar GBP= following the stronger-than-expected data.

 

“The economy has regained some momentum but the underlying trend is towards softer growth. The headwinds from a major global slowdown and uncertainty at home point to weaker growth ahead,” said Ian Stewart, chief economist at accountants Deloitte.

 

Britain’s economy shrank in the second quarter of the year, driven by a sharp decline in April when businesses found themselves holding unnecessary stockpiles of raw materials after Brexit was delayed from the original date of March 29.

 

RECESSION RISK DIMINISHES

 

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has promised to take Britain out of the EU by Oct. 31, without a transition period if necessary - despite parliament telling him to delay Brexit again if he cannot negotiate a fresh deal. Businesses say a no-deal Brexit risks causing major disruption to imports.

 

Two consecutive quarters of contraction would mean Britain’s economy met a commonly used definition of recession, but the ONS said the economy would need to shrink by an almost unprecedented 1.5% in September alone for this to happen.

 

As well as Brexit, manufacturers across Europe have been hit by a rise in trade tensions between the United States and China which has weighed on growth globally.

 

The new managing director of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, warned earlier this week that the world economy was suffering a “synchronised slowdown”.

 

The Bank of England predicted last month that Britain’s economy would manage growth of 0.2% in the third quarter, bolstered in part by higher public spending.

 

But September IHS Markit purchasing managers’ index data released last week for the private sector pointed to a 0.1% contraction in the third quarter, with businesses reporting that foreign customers were staying away before Brexit.

 

The ONS said it had not received any good anecdotal evidence of the effect of Brexit preparations on the economy in August, when the annual rate of growth slowed to 1.1% from 1.3%, matching a seven-year low set in June.

 

“Growth increased in the last three months, despite a weak performance across manufacturing, with TV and film production helping to boost the services sector,” ONS statistician Rob Kent-Smith said.

 

Soft global demand was hurting demand for manufactured exports, the ONS added, and growth in the dominant services industry slowed to zero in the month of August alone.

 

August trade data also released on Thursday showed Britain’s goods trade deficit widened slightly to 9.8 billion pounds from 9.6 billion pounds in July, versus Reuters poll forecasts of 10.0 billion pounds.

 

Britain’s total trade deficit for goods and services narrowed slightly to 1.5 billion pounds from 1.7 billion.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-10-10

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[kingdong]

Once we,'re out,watch the £ rise.

[Jack100]

Can I have my post Bexit  pounds back........ at the old rate please !

[stevenl]

44 minutes ago, kingdong said:

Once we,'re out,watch the £ rise.

I very much doubt that, it has been on a downward trend ever since WWII.

But let's hope recession can be staved off, remain or brexit, deal or no deal.

[Kwasaki]

3 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

figures were weak. -- while growth in July was revised up to 0.4%.

--Sterling edged up against the U.S. dollar.

--trade tensions between the United States and China.

--1.5 billion pounds from 1.7 billion.

More TM dribble,  who cares just leave and get on with it.

 

 

 

 

[Loiner]

They keep talking it down, regardless that it’s nowhere near as bad as they would like it to be. Neither are their Brexit predictions of disaster.
Why does TVF keep spreading the fake news of doom and gloom?


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

[stevenl]

17 minutes ago, Loiner said:

They keep talking it down, regardless that it’s nowhere near as bad as they would like it to be. Neither are their Brexit predictions of disaster.
Why does TVF keep spreading the fake news of doom and gloom?


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

I would trust ONS more than your characterisation of fake news.

[nauseus]

4 hours ago, Jack100 said:

Can I have my post Bexit  pounds back........ at the old rate please !

not yet  but up 2c today

[Loiner]

I would trust ONS more than your characterisation of fake news.

There you go then - that’s your problem. You obviously trusted the Remain hype of the previous government and probably trust the hypocrisy of the current anti democratic parliamentarians. You trust all the wrong sources.

[Chomper Higgot]

6 hours ago, Loiner said:

There you go then - that’s your problem. You obviously trusted the Remain hype of the previous government and probably trust the hypocrisy of the current anti democratic parliamentarians. You trust all the wrong sources.

The ONS is not Parliament.

 

But please do tell us where you get the data you find more reliable?

Edited October 11, 2019 by Chomper Higgot

[soalbundy]

13 hours ago, kingdong said:

Once we,'re out,watch the £ rise.

The pound isn't a loaf of bread in the oven, though if it was somebody forgot the yeast.

[soalbundy]

Didn't they do well

[stevenl]

31 minutes ago, Victornoir said:

Total consequence of the Varadkar optimistic declaration after visit to Johnson.

The proof that the fall of the pound is intimately linked to the prospect of an exit without agreement, if someone doubted it yet.

Short term yes, long term no. Long term the pound will do as it has been doing for a long time, steadily decrease, brexit or not, deal or not.

[Krataiboy]

3 hours ago, stevenl said:

Short term yes, long term no. Long term the pound will do as it has been doing for a long time, steadily decrease, brexit or not, deal or not.

Ssh. . . George Soros might be listening.

[BritManToo]

Pound went from 37 to 38 this morning, after the news Ireland made a deal with Boris.

[joecoolfrog]

17 hours ago, kingdong said:

Once we,'re out,watch the £ rise.

Providing we agree a deal , yes.

[bristolboy]

4 hours ago, Victornoir said:

Total consequence of the Varadkar optimistic declaration after visit to Johnson.

The proof that the fall of the pound is intimately linked to the prospect of an exit without agreement, if someone doubted it yet.

What's truly astonishing, as shown by an emoji attached to your comment, is that there are actually Brexiters who deny the connection. 

[joecoolfrog]

3 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Pound went from 37 to 38 this morning, after the news Ireland made a deal with Boris.

Not a deal , but some promising feedback. 

[joecoolfrog]

5 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

The ONS is not Parliament.

 

But please do tell us where you get the data you find more reliable?

Xanadu !

[sawadee1947]

16 hours ago, Kwasaki said:

More TM dribble,  who cares just leave and get on with it.

 

 

 

 

......says somebody who lives quite comfortable in Thailand and who doesn't care about his home country where people are struggling 

Very selfish Laddie 

[dunroaming]

16 hours ago, Loiner said:

Why does TVF keep spreading the fake news of doom and gloom?

Really are sounding a tad paranoid now Loiner.  Just reporting what is in the news, some will be accurate and some will be media hype.  Same for every subject.

[nauseus]

7 minutes ago, rhyddid said:

Outlook of UK economy , very simple !

 

Yes, very simple.

[JonnyF]

1 hour ago, nauseus said:

Yes, very simple.

Indeed, So basically we are still doing ok despite the Uncertainty caused by the attempts of Remain MP’s, the speaker of the house, Gina Miller and the judiciary to frustrate the process and leave us in limbo for x more years.

 

We are like a horse chomping at the bit. Bercow, Miller, Hale, Swineson, Grieve et al. holding us back. refusing to let go of the reins.

 

if No Deal is allowed by the elites, the pound will be back above 50 within 12 months and we’ll be comparing Brexit to the millennium bug.

[BritManToo]

49 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

if No Deal is allowed by the elites, the pound will be back above 50 within 12 months and we’ll be comparing Brexit to the millennium bug.

Pound just jumped another 0.2bht, that's 1.2bht in a day = 3% rise.

[bumpkin]

20 hours ago, stevenl said:

I would trust ONS more than your characterisation of fake news.

and the ONS is not beyond reproach, as any check on 'Prof. Google' can confirm.  Their sampling methods have been questioned many times.    

Not saying they are wrong in this instance,  just be careful with anyone who relies on statistics to bolster their case. 

 

" "There are three kinds of lies:    lies, damned lies, and statistics." attributed to Mark Twain

Edited October 11, 2019 by bumpkin

[stevenl]

14 minutes ago, bumpkin said:

and the ONS is not beyond reproach, as any check on 'Prof. Google' can confirm.  Their sampling methods have been questioned many times.    

Not saying they are wrong in this instance,  just be careful with anyone who relies on statistics to bolster their case. 

 

" "There are three kinds of lies:    lies, damned lies, and statistics." attributed to Mark Twain

Agree, always be careful with all kind of statistics.

My point was, trusting fake news sources over ONS is simply not smart.

[Kwasaki]

5 hours ago, sawadee1947 said:

......says somebody who lives quite comfortable in Thailand and who doesn't care about his home country where people are struggling 

Very selfish Laddie 

Don't Laddie me, I guess your another TM & EU mafia supporter who knows nothing about me.

My family is fine and wanted out and sick of the wasted 3.1/2 years.

[sawadee1947]

1 hour ago, Kwasaki said:

Don't Laddie me, I guess your another TM & EU mafia supporter who knows nothing about me.

My family is fine and wanted out and sick of the wasted 3.1/2 years.

Thank your for your reply. 

More disqualification is not possible. ????

 

 

[puipuitom]

On 10/10/2019 at 2:06 PM, kingdong said:

Once we,'re out,watch the £ rise.

The last 4 years it's the opposite: as soon as the fear for a Brexit sinks, the GBP goes up

[Kwasaki]

1 hour ago, sawadee1947 said:

Thank your for your reply. 

More disqualification is not possible. ????

Don't know what you mean, sounds like we have different views.

All I say is my UK family want out of EU and were sick of TM stretching it out, she should be tried for treason if I could enforce it.

Edited October 11, 2019 by Kwasaki