Central bank analyses keys to slowing economy

[webfact]

Central bank analyses keys to slowing economy

By The Nation

 

Don Nakornthab, senior director of the bank’s Economic and Policy Department.

 

The Bank of Thailand blames the sluggish global economy primarily for continued deceleration of the national economy in September and the overall third quarter.

 

It announced on Thursday (October 31) that the value of merchandise exports continues to contract, as it has among Thailand’s trading partners.

 

 

Manufacturing production and private investment indicators deteriorated. Private-consumption indicators expanded at a pace similar to the previous month, though public spending rebounded from capital expenditures. 

 

The tourism sector also continued to expand, thanks chiefly to an increase in the number of Chinese and Indian tourists, said the central bank.

The value of merchandise exports dropped by 1.5 per cent from the same period last year. Excluding gold, their value continued to contract for the 11th consecutive month at 3.3 percent. 

 

This the bank blamed on slow economies among trading partners, a continued downturn in the electronic cycle and the contraction of global crude oil prices. 

 

The value of exports expanded in some categories, including automotive and auto parts, agro-manufacturing products and electrical appliances, due to the low base effect and the benefits of substituting exports to the US and China, as well as the relocation of production bases to Thailand, said Don Nakornthab, senior director of the bank’s Economic and Policy Department.

 

 

Private-investment indicators continued to deteriorate from the same period last year. Investment in machinery and equipment continued to decrease from imports of capital goods, domestic machinery sales and the number of motor vehicles newly registered for investment. 

 

Don said this partly indicated that businesses had sufficient production capacity to accommodate future demand. 

 

Meanwhile, investment in construction declined in almost every aspect, consistent with subdued construction and real estate activities, he said.

 

 

Private-consumption indicators moderately expanded at a similar pace compared with the previous month, even though the government launched economic stimulus measures this month to supply purchasing power. 

 

Spending on services and semi-durable goods grew at a faster pace, offsetting softer growth of spending on non-durable goods and further contraction in spending on durable goods due to lower domestic vehicle sales. 

 

Softened spending was in line with weakening fundamental factors, from continued contraction in non-farm income, lower consumer confidence and financial institutions’ tightening of credit standards for auto-leasing loans after credit quality deteriorated. 

 

Manufacturing production consistently contracted following softer domestic and external demand.

 

Public spending, excluding transfers, slightly rebounded due to the central government’s capital expenditures for transportation projects. However, current expenditures fell from purchases on goods and services. Also, state enterprises’ capital expenditures contracted from the disbursement of the Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand and PTT Public Co Ltd, Don noted.

 

The value of merchandise imports contracted by 4.5 per cent from the same period last year. Excluding gold, the value of merchandise imports declined 3.5 per cent due to the contraction of imports of raw materials and intermediate goods, particularly electronic parts, consistent with lower production and exports, and crude oil which contracted in both price and volume partly due to an oil refinery shut-down for maintenance, and a drop in imports of capital goods excluding aircraft, ships, floating structures and locomotive, particularly in telecommunication equipment and machinery and electric generating sets, in line with private investment indicators. 

 

Nonetheless, imports of consumer goods rebounded, partly due to the low base effect, he said.

 

 

The number of foreign tourist arrivals accelerated to 10.1 percent compared with the same period last year. This was driven by 1) the low base effect from the tour boat incident in Phuket; 2) the exemption of the visa on arrival fee, encouraging more visitors from China, India, and Taiwan; and 3) the political unrest in Hong Kong, persuading some tourists to shift their destination to Thailand. Moreover, tourists from other Asian countries continued to grow such as Laos, Japan, and South Korea, he said.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30377941

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2019-11-01

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[lkv]

Ok. I know it's bullsh#t but I will bite into it for just a minute.

 

The index is 100 (January 2015).

 

According to the chart, you have more tourists from everywhere, except Europe.

 

Europe has the same number of tourists like 4 years ago, they claim.

 

Jan 2015 1 EURO = 39.5 - 40 baht

Today 1 EURO = 33.6 baht. 

 

Meanwhile, reports on the ground are that farangs have sort of vanished. Sources are telling us they ran away to Vietnam.

 

Anyways, moving on.

 

CHINA.

 

Tourism from China is exploding, despite the Thai baht being manipulated by the Central Bank the yuan not performing very well due to the trade war. 

 

January 2015 1 yuan = 5.30 baht

Now 1 yuan = 4.30 baht 

 

Anyways, why am i wasting my time on this.

Edited October 31, 2019 by lkv

[ukrules]

Just now, lkv said:

Jan 2015 1 EURO = 39.5 - 40 baht

Today 1 EURO = 33.6 baht. 

If only we could figure out why more Europeans aren't coming to Thailand, nobody seems to know why....

[Chelseafan]

"This the bank blamed on slow economies among trading partners, a continued downturn in the electronic cycle and the contraction of global crude oil prices"

 

No, your currency is too strong.

 

Just say it as it is instead of blaming everyone and everything else

 

 

 

 

Edited October 31, 2019 by Chelseafan

[Chazar]

Ill analyse this without all the waffle.........it aint our  fault

[Fex Bluse]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

The Bank of Thailand blames the sluggish global economy primarily for continued deceleration of the national economy in September and the overall third quarter.

Completely predictable Thai response.

It is always someone or something else innit?

[ExpatOilWorker]

1 hour ago, lkv said:

Ok. I know it's bullsh#t but I will bite into it for just a minute.

 

The index is 100 (January 2015).

 

According to the chart, you have more tourists from everywhere, except Europe.

 

Europe has the same number of tourists like 4 years ago, they claim.

 

Jan 2015 1 EURO = 39.5 - 40 baht

Today 1 EURO = 33.6 baht. 

 

Meanwhile, reports on the ground are that farangs have sort of vanished. Sources are telling us they ran away to Vietnam.

 

Anyways, moving on.

 

CHINA.

 

Tourism from China is exploding, despite the Thai baht being manipulated by the Central Bank the yuan not performing very well due to the trade war. 

 

January 2015 1 yuan = 5.30 baht

Now 1 yuan = 4.30 baht 

 

Anyways, why am i wasting my time on this.

European arrivals from 2009-18:

4,059,988

4,442,375

5,101,406

5,650,619

6,305,945

6,161,893

5,631,438

6,174,957

6,514,011

6,760,331

 

2015 was an abysmal year, maybe that is why they used it as reference point.

Tourist by nationality.xlsx

Edited October 31, 2019 by ExpatOilWorker

[baansgr]

I wish those foreigners would get their act and economies together, fed up with them ruining Thailand's economy all the time.

[Somtamnication]

Ahem.....please investigate why the Thai baht is too expensive....oops, cannot. Not politically correct.

[Cadbury]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

The number of foreign tourist arrivals accelerated to 10.1 percent

Seemingly the Central Bank believes the TAT even if no one else does.

 

2 hours ago, webfact said:

Private-investment indicators continued to deteriorate from the same period last year.

That could well be factual. If the CB delved a bit deeper they might find a lot of local investors are putting their money into other nearby countries in preference to Thailand where the opportunities and returns are better, the risks lower, the workforce cheaper, better educated and more productive.

Vietnam seems a popular place at the moment for Thai investors, particularly in food retail and industrial estate property development.

Anyway good luck Thailand, you will need all you can get while under the economic stewardship of Khun Prayut Chan-o-cha 

[RichardColeman]

Went to Walking Street in Monday for the first time in years. Absolutely heaving. BUT, it was all tours and groups of Chinese and Indians not spending anything. Tourist numbers only affect the economy if they actually BUY something

[saengd]

More pages of posters saying it's all BS, there are no tourists yet all the stats. keep telling the same story....posters might just want to think again. Just because you don't see 'em, doesn't mean they are not there. And THB too strong? Perhaps it's too strong for you, not necessarily so for others, certainly the Chinese aren't bothered.

 

From the stats: East Asia, 26 million visitors....Europe, 6.7 mill.....USA, 1.6 mill. I wonder how many TVF posters can tell the difference between a Thai person and visitors from other East Asian countries, I'm guessing maybe 1% can, that's probably why you can't see them, they're right under our nose!

Edited November 1, 2019 by saengd

[mok199]

Next weeks headlines ''Condo sales brisk ,as people flock to Thailand'..

[hotchilli]

2 hours ago, Cadbury said:

Anyway good luck Thailand, you will need all you can get while under the economic stewardship of Khun Prayut Chan-o-cha 

Ditto, slowly all their leadership is starting to unravel as it becomes clear the military are not politicians.

[Isaan sailor]

Hey central bankers, for Chrissake, shut down your hot money inflows from those evil ChiComs.  Tourism, exporters and expats will return and give thanks...

[Isaan sailor]

USD down from 36 three years ago, to 30.16 today.  I'd say you have a problem, central bankers.  Meanwhile I advise all on social media to avoid this overpriced country.

[saengd]

1 minute ago, Isaan sailor said:

USD down from 36 three years ago, to 30.16 today.  I'd say you have a problem, central bankers.  Meanwhile I advise all on social media to avoid this overpriced country.

....except those who have Thai assets or income that is, in which case it's party time! ????

[leeneeds]

Join the world as most countries are trying to avoid recession,

part saving grace will be a China / US trade agreement

and who knows when the be and  end all,  Nobel peace winner will make a deal, being 

so smart it hurts.

 

[Cadbury]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

The tourism sector also continued to expand

November will be a boomer month for Thai tourism. TAT are certain to include in their tourist arrival numbers all the delegates, security personnel, hangers on and entourages coming to the ASEAN Summit. They will come by the thousands in droves.

With these big spenders the tourist revenue will also go through the roof.

TAT won't let this opportunity pass by without milking the last drop from it.

 

[brain150]

Starting 2015 with all statistics is a smart move ! ????

... the king died and everybody was morning, there was a coup and a curfew, bars closed

entertainment very restricted - all numbers dropped significantly compared to the years before that..

 

So, it is very smart to compare everything to the lowest numbers in years

instead of comparing them to the good years. Just saying ... ????????????

[Jano22]

Did my 90 day in Jomtien immigration today. Lived here for 10 years. Never ever seen so few people on this time of the year.

[Mainhattencitizen]

10 hours ago, Chelseafan said:

"This the bank blamed on slow economies among trading partners, a continued downturn in the electronic cycle and the contraction of global crude oil prices"

 

No, your currency is too strong.

 

Just say it as it is instead of blaming everyone and everything else

 

 

 

 

It is the Thai way to always blame others. They themselves do not make mistakes and even if they make mistakes they will and cannot admit it......what a loss of face that would be.

 

[Scot123]

6 hours ago, hotchilli said:

Ditto, slowly all their leadership is starting to unravel as it becomes clear the military are not politicians.

Correct me if I am wrong but I am sure I am correct. Every military government has destroyed their country. Not one single successful military government. And all you people who sang and rejoiced at the coup, reap what you sow! 

[Redline]

Mor blaming to avoid the truth.

[MadMac]

They take the numbers from the tourism ministry, so this is flawed from the beginning. Only interesting point was this:

 

"The value of merchandise exports dropped by 1.5 per cent from the same period last year. Excluding gold, their value continued to contract for the 11th consecutive month at 3.3 percent. "

 

Meaning they sell gold which is a hard, freely convertible currency, and declare it as an export. Which it is not. Everything else is declining.

[baboon]

8 hours ago, Scot123 said:

Correct me if I am wrong but I am sure I am correct. Every military government has destroyed their country. Not one single successful military government. And all you people who sang and rejoiced at the coup, reap what you sow! 

No, now they are trying to pretend that it didn't happen. That this government is not the junta. Those of us with long memories have not forgotten who they are and their disgraceful attempts to brush it under the carpet.

[Lacessit]

The report should have said real estate is falling off a cliff. Chinese and Indians are tourists, not long-term stayers. Some of the Western renters have been forced out by the stricter financial requirements. Others have worked out drinking and wenching is cheaper elsewhere. End result - condo prices are plunging, and condo occupancy rates are down. Self-inflicted wound.

[neeray]

19 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Went to Walking Street in Monday for the first time in years. Absolutely heaving. BUT, it was all tours and groups of Chinese and Indians not spending anything. Tourist numbers only affect the economy if they actually BUY something

That would indicate to me that Walking Street has evolved into nothing more than a tourist attraction, a fish bowl of sorts.