SURVEY: Headed toward for recession or good times?

[Scott]

There have been a few articles on the state of the economy.   Some of the information is contradictory, with some saying it's good times ahead and others saying we are headed toward a recession.   In your opinion, where do you think the economy is headed in the next year?

 

Please feel free to leave a comment.

 

Recent threads:

 

Regional confidence is seen rising

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1136208-regional-confidence-in-economy-seen-rising/

 

Household debt at record level:

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1136231-household-debt-at-record-bt340000/

 

Economic downturn continues:

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1136424-economic-downtrend-continues-in-oct-despite-private-consumption-tourism-growth/

 

 

 

[rwill]

Talk to common Thai's they think the economy is already bad.  Rising prices and less income at the same time.

[Brunolem]

Difficult to say since the Thai economy is a follower (of other countries) rather than a leader.

 

In other words, it is unlikely that Thailand will go into recession alone, but if the West and/or China get into economic troubles (quite likely), then Thailand will be swept with them...

[Skallywag]

There have been 6 recessions in the USA in the last 60 years.  7 in the UK

So a recession every 5-10 years is normal.  Not anything "new", just a fact of life.

[Cadbury]

Almost all the economic indicators signal more bad news ahead. TAT's exaggerated claims should be totally disregarded.

If for some reason the baht falls in value there might be some hope but others would argue there is little chance of that in the near future. Even the Thai Central Bank chief says the rising baht is a worry.

The government's unimaginative and addiction to "Chim Shop Chai" stimulus campaigns will do little more than give temporary relief and nothing to fix decreasing manufacturing and farm exports. Rice exports is shaping up as a big worry as other country's rice export prices are going down while their productivity and quality rises. Thailand is losing their share of the global rice market fast.

Thailand has an export driven economy and if that is not performing well then the country as a whole will not do well. 

A lot will depend on the global economy and if that goes into recession then Thailand will likely be dragged down with it.

When Somkid, one of the chiefs of Thailand's economic team, comes out publicly and says.....ssssh! "Don't mention the economy" and saying it could affect confidence then something bad is in the air for sure.

https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/economy/deputy-thai-pm-dont-mention-the-economy

 

[Drax]

1 hour ago, Cadbury said:

Almost all the economic indicators signal more bad news ahead. TAT's exaggerated claims should be totally disregarded.

If for some reason the baht falls in value there might be some hope but others would argue there is little chance of that in the near future. Even the Thai Central Bank chief says the rising baht is a worry.

The government's unimaginative and addiction to "Chim Shop Chai" stimulus campaigns will do little more than give temporary relief and nothing to fix decreasing manufacturing and farm exports. Rice exports is shaping up as a big worry as other country's rice export prices are going down while their productivity and quality rises. Thailand is losing their share of the global rice market fast.

Thailand has an export driven economy and if that is not performing well then the country as a whole will not do well. 

A lot will depend on the global economy and if that goes into recession then Thailand will likely be dragged down with it.

When Somkid, one of the chiefs of Thailand's economic team, comes out publicly and says.....ssssh! "Don't mention the economy" and saying it could affect confidence then something bad is in the air for sure.

https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/economy/deputy-thai-pm-dont-mention-the-economy

 

If there’s a recession that will happen. This year been saving money in a thai bank acc. Proved to be a good investiment (9%+ return agaisnt usd) but... with baht so strong and govrnemnt trying to reverse trend and all these signs of crisis I’ve started taking it out past two months and invest somewhere else. My own country went through a big crisis similar to Greece for almost 10y. News Sentiment feeling same as back then. Personally either way doesn’t affect me nowadays as I have no thai investiments but ye.  

Also fears of a global Recession atm. Most usa stocks are overvalued if you notice and more people buying gold. I myself haven’t been investing in USA companies for the reason above personally. While their performance is good if they crash, it will be a hard one (feels bad for ppl without stop-loss orders). Anyway chances are nothing will happen until summer.  If anything the opposite for now due to 15th dec deal cming between us-China. 

Edited December 1, 2019 by Drax

[BritManToo]

Recession ahead for every country IMHO.

Countries that rely heavily on tourism will be hit harder than others, as holidays are optional spending for most.

[Pilotman]

Happy days; here's hope the Baht suffers badly. 

[ivor bigun]

Just praying that Boris will get a large majority ,so that the pound strengthens against the Baht ,if hung parliament ,or Corbyn in ,wont matter what happens here as we will be screwed anyway .

[Pilotman]

3 minutes ago, ivor bigun said:

Just praying that Boris will get a large majority ,so that the pound strengthens against the Baht ,if hung parliament ,or Corbyn in ,wont matter what happens here as we will be screwed anyway .

the weak pound is of course only half the problem for us, maybe not even a half, it's the strong Baht that is slowly strangling us, and the Thai economy, if truth were known. But we have been here before in Asia, and it will return to something like its old self at some point.  I recon an equilibrium of 55 Baht to the pound can be predicted, within 3 years. Of course, predication's from people like me, who know very little, is like bad sex, best forgotten and ignored. 

[meechai]

My guesstimate...

 

Irrational exuberance has been rampant in Thailand for quite a few years now.

 

Most signs are clearly pointing to problems ahead regardless of the Baht value

Investments have been made foolishly counting on buyers/customers that don't exist income wise.

Homes,subdivisions,Condo's, Shop Houses, Malls

 

Lending has occurred with buyers/customers that soon cannot make the payments.

On all of the above & also cars, motorcycles etc etc

+ unsecured debts on personal goods.

 

This is classic storm brewing & what many have seen before in the West

The difference is the (USA) could print because of being the World reserve currency

crash was softer with FDIC covering hundreds of failed banks etc

(there is a good reason Thailand has been steadily lowering their version of FDIC / deposit insurance)

 

Others like Iceland were not so lucky & took the bitter medicine instead

 

It will likely be bitter for Thailand too but nothing new for the farmers & country folks who know how to live with next to nothing.

 

 

 

Edited December 1, 2019 by meechai

[Cadbury]

44 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Recession ahead for every country IMHO.

Countries that rely heavily on tourism will be hit harder than others, as holidays are optional spending for most.

News out today that the EU is on the brink of recession and the Block's economy is being clobbered because of Brexit delays and the US/China trade war.

If the EU tips into recession then other countries are sure to follow which will likely have a negative impact on the Thai economy. The Thailand/EU free trade agreement is sure now to take a low priority under these circumstances. The PM's much lauded EEC should also be looking a bit sick with potential foreign investors hanging on the their money. 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1210848/brexit-news-us-china-trade-war-eu-france-germany-recession-latest-news

[griffon2011]

2 hours ago, Brunolem said:

Difficult to say since the Thai economy is a follower (of other countries) rather than a leader.

 

In other words, it is unlikely that Thailand will go into recession alone, but if the West and/or China get into economic troubles (quite likely), then Thailand will be swept with them...

China is already in trouble its just that you don't hear much about it in the mainstream media.  For example construction has stopped on China's tallest skyscraper because Greenland Group which is China's largest developer was using a flawed business model that did not factor in a recession and relied on the sale of expensive apartment to generate funding and could not make a payment. Liquidity for construction has dried up. Also, several banks have recently failed and there have actually been some bank runs. The party is just starting.  

[Cadbury]

6 minutes ago, griffon2011 said:

China is already in trouble its just that you don't hear much about it in the mainstream media.  For example construction has stopped on China's tallest skyscraper because Greenland Group which is China's largest developer was using a flawed business model that did not factor in a recession and relied on the sale of expensive apartment to generate funding and could not make a payment. Liquidity for construction has dried up. Also, several banks have recently failed and there have actually been some bank runs. The party is just starting.  

If your prediction is true then batten down the hatches folks! After the storm has passed Cash will be King  and opportunity will rise from the ashes. 

[ChipButty]

Business is bad already speak to the local people, many small resorts are empty where now they should be full 

[just bob]

The sugercane industry is suffering lower prices.  The rubber industry is on the skids.  The rice farmers are suffering.  Bear in mind the majority of these local folk borrow heavily to plant and produce.  What's more, the rice farmers are looking at no second crop due to the drought.  Tourism is down (sorry TAT) and businesses are shuttering.  Chinese condo buyers are drying up due to home problems and rents are beginning to come down.

 

Helicopter money from the generals will not fix the structural problems of insufficient modernization investments to stay competitive.

 

On a plus note, the comedy index remains high as a troop of police raided and shut down a balloon darts booth at a fair the other day saying it was illegal gambling.  I feel better already!

[Onrai]

This quote taken from the Bangkok post October 27, 2019.

Do you believe it or Not

Why is the baht so strong?

Several factors are attracting investors to Thailand, making it a haven for foreign money. But its healthy current account tops them all, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The International Monetary Fund forecasts the country will post a surplus of 6% of gross domestic product this year, almost double that of Japan.

 

[Brunolem]

18 hours ago, griffon2011 said:

China is already in trouble its just that you don't hear much about it in the mainstream media.  For example construction has stopped on China's tallest skyscraper because Greenland Group which is China's largest developer was using a flawed business model that did not factor in a recession and relied on the sale of expensive apartment to generate funding and could not make a payment. Liquidity for construction has dried up. Also, several banks have recently failed and there have actually been some bank runs. The party is just starting.  

I know about China's troubles, whose situation I follow regularly.

 

Until now, only small local banks have been in trouble.

 

Could this spread to the big ones, and how quickly, is the question...

 

Since all the stats, in China and everywhere else, are highly massaged, it is difficult to see the exact economic situation, but it seems that the world is quickly heading through the Great Recession part 2, after a long and artificial pause brought by insane monetary policies.

 

Geopolitical problems, as well as internal instability (Hong Kong, US elections...) may well be the catalyst that will precipitate a major crisis...

 

 

[DrTuner]

Downhill and accelerating until Thais grow balls and get rid of what needs to be gotten rid of.