Scotland must be given new independence vote - Sturgeon

[melvinmelvin]

1 hour ago, RuamRudy said:

It's hard to fathom just how cack handed the government could be in their repeatedly appointing potentially compromised people. It's almost as if they wanted the whole thing to fall apart... 

 

always purported;

 

UK government/authorities are way more skilled re non-disclosure than disclosure

 

[RuamRudy]

I posted the following on the Sinn Fein thread as the article is mostly related to Irish reunification, however the reasoning for the Tory SoS (Patrick Mayhew)'s enthusiasm for reunification is spelled out in his own words: “The province costs £3bn a year. £3bn for a million and a half people! For us there is no strategic or economic interest at stake"

 

So, NI provides no economic advantage to the union and is therefore considered, at best, dispensable. Why would this principle not also be extended to Scotland if it was, as many claim, an economic drain on the UK?

 

9 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

A united Ireland is the secret Tory dream

 

"It is true the English Tories have always been passionately opposed to Scottish secession from the Union... 

But, while the protestants of Northern Ireland wave the Union Jack more proudly than most do on the mainland, this feeling of attachment is hardly reciprocated, even by the most nationalist Conservatives.

...

"On one occasion, a Tory secretary of state for the province blurted out the truth to a newspaper... "People think we don’t want to let Northern Ireland [leave] the United Kingdom. If I’m completely honest [we’d do it] with pleasure.”"

[jayboy]

6 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

I posted the following on the Sinn Fein thread as the article is mostly related to Irish reunification, however the reasoning for the Tory SoS (Patrick Mayhew)'s enthusiasm for reunification is spelled out in his own words: “The province costs £3bn a year. £3bn for a million and a half people! For us there is no strategic or economic interest at stake"

 

So, NI provides no economic advantage to the union and is therefore considered, at best, dispensable. Why would this principle not also be extended to Scotland if it was, as many claim, an economic drain on the UK?

 

I've read the Dominic Lawson article you quote and largely agree with it.Sooner or later Ireland will be united and most English people will wish it well.There is no question that Irish unity will be driven by myriad political forces: I don't think the late Paddy Mayhew's - a member of the Anglo-Irish gentry - ( reference to the province's need for subsidy is by any measure the most important (though it might give Dublin pause for thought) There is much affection in England for Ireland as there is for Scotland but the two cases are different. Nevertheless I suppose it's inevitable that there will be another Scotland independence referendum in the next few years.A key issue is not whether Scotland is a drain on the UK and in any case so what? Isn't the purpose of the Union to help each other out?

 

The bigger issue is for Scots to consider.Assuming a new referendum approved independence, would they be prepared to cut back on public services to meet the EU's financing rules? Would they want the inevitable hard border with England? Would the EU accept Scotland in the first place given concerns over regional nationalism in Europe (eg Spain/Catalonia)? Do they think the English would roll over and give Scotland an easy generous deal in terms of exiting the Union? If so, think again in a scenario where one side holds all the cards that matter.It may come to this but I hope not.

[RuamRudy]

3 hours ago, jayboy said:

I've read the Dominic Lawson article you quote and largely agree with it.Sooner or later Ireland will be united and most English people will wish it well.There is no question that Irish unity will be driven by myriad political forces: I don't think the late Paddy Mayhew's - a member of the Anglo-Irish gentry - ( reference to the province's need for subsidy is by any measure the most important (though it might give Dublin pause for thought) There is much affection in England for Ireland as there is for Scotland but the two cases are different. Nevertheless I suppose it's inevitable that there will be another Scotland independence referendum in the next few years.A key issue is not whether Scotland is a drain on the UK and in any case so what? Isn't the purpose of the Union to help each other out?

I only have Lawson's words to go on, but his conclusion was that Mayhew saw little value in NI from a UK perspective. If he could be so dismissive of the land of his forefathers over a deficit, why would he not see Scotland as a similar burden? That is the point I am making. 

 

Lawson's hypothesis also does not square with your final 2 sentences - if the Union is magnanimous in its sharing and pooling, why was he willing to cut off one net drain and not another, especially the one with which he has familial links?

 

My contention, therefore, is that Scotland is, in fact, not a drain on the UK resources, but actually contributes more than it receives. 

 

3 hours ago, jayboy said:

The bigger issue is for Scots to consider.

These are all points which have been raised and, in the main, put to bed many times.

 

3 hours ago, jayboy said:

would they be prepared to cut back on public services to meet the EU's financing rules?

Scotland's declared contribution to the exchequer is around £60 billion whereas the SG spends around £30 billion. Westminster accounts for the rest and then some. You are assuming that an independent Scottish government would spend in a similar fashion to Westminster, which misses the point about independence. 

 

3 hours ago, jayboy said:

Would they want the inevitable hard border with England?

There is a hard border between the US and Canada and that seems to function just fine. What is so problematic about the same between Scotland and England?

 

3 hours ago, jayboy said:

Would the EU accept Scotland in the first place given concerns over regional nationalism in Europe (eg Spain/Catalonia)?

I am not sure how many assurances people actually need here. Spain has said that if Scotland secedes from the UK in a legal and internationally recognised manner then it would not veto Scottish membership. Numerous EU officials have made it repeatedly clear that Scotland would be welcomed back were it to apply and meet the criteria.

 

3 hours ago, jayboy said:

Do they think the English would roll over and give Scotland an easy generous deal in terms of exiting the Union? If so, think again in a scenario where one side holds all the cards that matter.It may come to this but I hope not.

I would expect a fair and mutually respectful withdrawal process, but what do you mean by 'all the cards'? Scotland has many strategic factors in its favour when it comes to separation negotiations. 

Edited February 16, 2020 by RuamRudy

[Airbagwill]

Brexit  has brought about the possibility of the disintegration of the UK.

Scotland has every right to leave the union - more so than the uK had to leave the EU.

Scotland is also perfectly right when they recognise that a union with the EU is far preferable than a Union with a solitary and isolated England (maybe Wales for a while)

Edited February 16, 2020 by Airbagwill

[evadgib]

27 minutes ago, Airbagwill said:

Brexit  has brought about the possibility of the disintegration of the UK.

Scotland has every right to leave the union - more so than the uK had to leave the EU.

Scotland is also perfectly right when they recognise that a union with the EU is far preferable than a Union with a solitary and isolated England (maybe Wales for a while)

This exchange between 1845 & 1920 caught my ear last week while waiting for PMQ's...

 

Edited February 16, 2020 by evadgib

[melvinmelvin]

30 minutes ago, Airbagwill said:

 

Scotland has every right to leave the union - more so than the uK had to leave the EU.

 

 

the above sounds a bit odd to me

 

UK left EU with both UK and EU legislation in hand.

 

Where is Scotland's right to leave UK legislated?

What I see is that rest-UK treat Scotland like unruly kids - disallowing post EU efforts to Scotland leaving.

 

[vogie]

31 minutes ago, Airbagwill said:

Brexit  has brought about the possibility of the disintegration of the UK.

Scotland has every right to leave the union - more so than the uK had to leave the EU.

Scotland is also perfectly right when they recognise that a union with the EU is far preferable than a Union with a solitary and isolated England (maybe Wales for a while)

The SNP wanted to leave the UK before Brexit, so in that sense Brexit made little difference to the thinking of the SNP, if remain had won the SNP would still be banging the independence drum, but all remainers like to blame Brexit for all their little problems in life.

What has become apparent is that some remainers are so angry about coming second in the EU referendum and subsequently leaving the EU, they have decided to jump on Team SNPs band wagon, and that would make them the people who wish to break the union up and not the Brexiteers. Don't forget that the Scots have had a vote on staying or leaving our wonderfull union and they voted to remain, the only thing the SNP and its followers have is a couple of polls, which show about 1% in favour of leaving, hardly conclusive now is it.

[evadgib]

9 minutes ago, vogie said:

The SNP wanted to leave the UK before Brexit, so in that sense Brexit made little difference to the thinking of the SNP, if remain had won the SNP would still be banging the independence drum, but all remainers like to blame Brexit for all their little problems in life.

What has become apparent is that some remainers are so angry about coming second in the EU referendum and subsequently leaving the EU, they have decided to jump on Team SNPs band wagon, and that would make them the people who wish to break the union up and not the Brexiteers. Don't forget that the Scots have had a vote on staying or leaving our wonderfull union and they voted to remain, the only thing the SNP and its followers have is a couple of polls, which show about 1% in favour of leaving, hardly conclusive now is it.

Last weeks QT audience made pretty clear that SNP doesn't speak for the whole of ????????????????????????????.

[jayboy]

1 hour ago, RuamRudy said:

only have Lawson's words to go on, but his conclusion was that Mayhew saw little value in NI from a UK perspective. If he could be so dismissive of the land of his forefathers over a deficit, why would he not see Scotland as a similar burden? 

You aren't grasping either Lawson's or Mayhew's position.They are in simple terms just echoing Churchill's view that eventually Ireland will be united.This is not being dismissive of NI, just a recognition of reality which is underlined by Brexit and changing demographics.

 

1 hour ago, RuamRudy said:

My contention, therefore, is that Scotland is, in fact, not a drain on the UK resources, but actually contributes more than it receives. 

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/scottish-income-tax-shortfall-offset-by-uk-funding

 

A little cold water to extinguish that piece of nonsense.

1 hour ago, RuamRudy said:

What is so problematic about the same between Scotland and England?

 

European Community rules if Scotland is allowed to join.That is the border problem.THe example of the US and Canada is barely relevant.

 

1 hour ago, RuamRudy said:

Spain has said that if Scotland secedes from the UK in a legal and internationally recognised manner then it would not veto Scottish membership

What do you expect Spain to say now? They can hardly say they will veto at this stage. In reality if push comes to shove the reaction won't be the same.Similarly what EC officials say now is irrelevant.It will be primarily a political decision by European governments which will have to balance the claims of one of the world's largest economies/political forces (UK) with those a small regional backwater (Scotland).I exaggerate to make the point.

 

1 hour ago, RuamRudy said:

I would expect a fair and mutually respectful withdrawal process, but what do you mean by 'all the cards'? Scotland has many strategic factors in its favour when it comes to separation negotiations

Yes - given the close ties (we're basically the same people) the withdrawal will be courteous and respectful.And you're right Scotland does have a few negotiating cards.But the reality is, like the UK and the EU in Brexit negotiations, it will be facing a partner with most of the aces.However close we are, the UK will seek to maximise its benefits and minimise those of Scotland.We should not expect much sentimentality when countries are defending their interests.AS Charles de Gaulle once said, "The State is a cold monster".

Edited February 16, 2020 by jayboy

[Sujo]

34 minutes ago, evadgib said:

Last weeks QT audience made pretty clear that SNP doesn't speak for the whole of ????????????????????????????.

Considering what has occured since the last referendum is quite major i cant see why they dont have another. What are people afraid of.

[vogie]

2 minutes ago, Sujo said:

Considering what has occured since the last referendum is quite major i cant see why they dont have another. What are people afraid of.

Ah that old chestnut, "what are people afraid of" wasn't that the clarion call of the remainers wanting another 'once in a lifetime EU referendum.' ????????????

[RuamRudy]

19 minutes ago, jayboy said:

You aren't grasping either Lawson's or Mayhew's position.They are in simple terms just echoing Churchill's view that eventually Ireland will be united.This is not being dismissive of NI, just a recognition of reality which is underlined by Brexit and changing demographics.

I would suggest that it is you who is missing the point. I am referring to his comment, "For us there is no strategic or economic interest at stake." That is not simply an acknowledgment of an inevitable reunification; he is stating that the preferred situation for him and the Conservative party at the time was to be rid of NI. The title of Lawson's piece even spells that out for you. 

 

19 minutes ago, jayboy said:

A little cold water to extinguish that piece of nonsense.

What nonsense? I have explained, albeit very briefly, that a Scottish government will not be behoven to follow Westminster spending. Why would we need to cut spending on public services when there are myriad Westminster white elephants that we can cull?

 

19 minutes ago, jayboy said:

European Community rules if Scotland is allowed to join.That is the border problem.THe example of the US and Canada is barely relevant.

You are not being very clear here. What rules are you referring to? In what way would they differ from any other international border, and why would the differ from any other international border?

 

19 minutes ago, jayboy said:

What do you expect Spain to say now? They can hardly say they will veto at this stage. In reality if push comes to shove the reaction won't be the same.Similarly what EC officials say now is irrelevant.It will be primarily a political decision by European governments which will have to balance the claims of one of the world's largest economies/political forces (UK) with those a small regional backwater (Scotland).I exaggerate to make the point.

So supposition and projection?

 

19 minutes ago, jayboy said:

Yes - given the close ties (we're basically the same people) the withdrawal will be courteous and respectful.And you're right Scotland does have a few negotiating cards.But the reality is, like the UK and the EU in Brexit negotiations, it will be facing a partner with most of the aces.However close we are, the UK will seek to maximise its benefits and minimise those of Scotland.We should not expect much sentimentality when countries are defending their interests.AS Charles de Gaulle once said, "The State is a cold monster".

Of course - and likewise, Scotland would seek to do the same. I am still unclear, however, just how rUK holds all the cards. Can you elaborate on those? What particular aces does Westminster have that would cause us pain?

Edited February 16, 2020 by RuamRudy

[melvinmelvin]

19 minutes ago, Sujo said:

Considering what has occured since the last referendum is quite major i cant see why they dont have another. What are people afraid of.

 

why?

'cause the overlords have determined; cannot have cannot have cannot have cannot have

 

[vogie]

Just now, melvinmelvin said:

 

why?

'cause the overlords have determined; cannot have cannot have cannot have cannot have

 

It is not often you are wrong melvin, but you are wrong again, the Scots themselves have chosen to remain in our union, I know a lot of people find this fact very hard to digest, but that is the truth.

[evadgib]

17 minutes ago, Sujo said:

Considering what has occured since the last referendum is quite major i cant see why they dont have another. What are people afraid of.

Afraid? The rest of UK has nothing to fear from such folly. If SNP are serious why not insist on the entire Kingdom being polled (& why didn't they do that at the first attempt)?

[jayboy]

5 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

I would suggest that it is you who is missing the point. I am referring to his comment, "For us there is no strategic or economic interest at stake." That is not simply an acknowledgment of an inevitable reunification; he is stating that the preferred situation for him and the Conservative party at the time was to be rid of NI. The title of Lawson's piece even spells that out for you. 

 

 

What nonsense? I have explained, albeit very briefly, that a Scottish government will not be behoven to follow Westminster spending. Why would we need to cut spending on public services when there are myriad Westminster white elephants that we can cull?

 

You are not being very clear here. What rules are you referring to? In what way would they differ from any other international border, and why would the differ from any other international border?

 

So supposition and projection?

 

Of course - and likewise, Scotland would seek to do the same. I am still unclear, however, just how rUK holds all the cards. Can you elaborate on those? What particular aces does Westminster have that would cause us pain?

If you don't mind I will not address these points one by one because you have a tendency to ignore a few basic realities (eg the huge subsidies provided by UK to Scotland).I don't blame you since I understand how nationalism blinds some of its supporters.It was the same in England with Brexit.

 

Try reading this article from The Guardian which addresses some of the key issues.The links in the article are also instructive.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/13/save-uk-scotland-independence-unionists

[melvinmelvin]

17 minutes ago, vogie said:

It is not often you are wrong melvin, but you are wrong again, the Scots themselves have chosen to remain in our union, I know a lot of people find this fact very hard to digest, but that is the truth.

think you now respond to smth different than what I commented

 

the guy/lass I commented asked  why not another ref now, (after Brexit etc)

 

well some efforts have been made in Scotland to that effect but D10 determines No!.

 

yes, I do know that the ref some time ago concluded remain

 

 

[Rookiescot]

1 hour ago, evadgib said:

Last weeks QT audience made pretty clear that SNP doesn't speak for the whole of ????????????????????????????.

Question time?

You might as well base your opinions on the Conservative party conference ???? 

[Rookiescot]

46 minutes ago, Sujo said:

Considering what has occured since the last referendum is quite major i cant see why they dont have another. What are people afraid of.

Short answer is British (English) nationalists are afraid of what will happen when Scotland leaves.

[melvinmelvin]

 

what I find somewhat amusing in this (and other Scotland leave/remain threads) is the constant

underlining of Scotlands disabilities re sorting out a sovereign state;

 

Scotland cannot do that

Scotland is broke

Scotland cannot do this

Scotland is financial short on all kinds of trade within and external to UK

Scotland does not have this

Scotland cannot handle pubic health care

Scotland doesn't qualify for EU membership

Scotland does not have that

Scotland might qualify for EU (more or less by mistake?) but Spain would say no

Scotland is short in collecting taxes

Scotland is a bloody burden on rest-UK

 

all in all a pretty useless haggis producing bog

 

still people seem to be almost hysteric about keeping the bogs (including the jocks) in UK

 

weird ain't it? yes it is!
 

 

[RuamRudy]

9 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

 

what I find somewhat amusing in this (and other Scotland leave/remain threads) is the constant

underlining of Scotlands disabilities re sorting out a sovereign state;

 

Scotland cannot do that

Scotland is broke

Scotland cannot do this

Scotland is financial short on all kinds of trade within and external to UK

Scotland does not have this

Scotland cannot handle pubic health care

Scotland doesn't qualify for EU membership

Scotland does not have that

Scotland might qualify for EU (more or less by mistake?) but Spain would say no

Scotland is short in collecting taxes

Scotland is a bloody burden on rest-UK

 

all in all a pretty useless haggis producing bog

 

still people seem to be almost hysteric about keeping the bogs (including the jocks) in UK

 

weird ain't it? yes it is!
 

 

All part of a strategy that Westminster has been playing for centuries. 

Edited February 16, 2020 by RuamRudy

[Sujo]

42 minutes ago, vogie said:

It is not often you are wrong melvin, but you are wrong again, the Scots themselves have chosen to remain in our union, I know a lot of people find this fact very hard to digest, but that is the truth.

Which doesnt address the issue. The Scots voted but then there was a major change in circumstance. Why so afraid to allow it.

[vogie]

12 minutes ago, Sujo said:

Which doesnt address the issue. The Scots voted but then there was a major change in circumstance. Why so afraid to allow it.

What you are failing to understand is that the "major change" didn't make one ha'penny worth of difference. The SNP wanted out before the EU referendum and they would have wanted out after the EU referendum irrespective of the Brexit result. Do not confuse the SNP with the Scots, they are two different entities. The SNP only care about 3 things indy2, indy2 and indy2, the Scots, no.

[jayboy]

1 hour ago, Rookiescot said:

Short answer is British (English) nationalists are afraid of what will happen when Scotland leaves.

That's a peculiar thought.Of course there are millions of English people who believe in the Union of the United KIngdom just as there are millions of Scots who feel much the same way.If nevertheless there is a referendum and the majority of Scots opt for independence, I don't think there will be any English people who will "be afraid what will happen". The huge majority of English people may feel sad but will wish Scotland well -  always our friends and sometimes our families.Of course Scotland can make it as an independent country given its native genius - though as I've set out elsewhere there will be great challenges.I hope Scotland will stay but if it doesn't, don't for one moment think it will face malice and obstruction from its Southern neighbour.We are bound together forever one way or the other.

 

Some facts for the interested

 

 

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/second-referendum-scottish-independence

Edited February 16, 2020 by jayboy

[Airbagwill]

2 hours ago, evadgib said:

The SNP wanted to leave the UK before Brexit, so in that sense Brexit made little difference to the thinking of the SNP, i

Duh! No! but it has made a difference to the people of Scotland who are united in a wish to determine their own future - especially in relation to the EU and if that means leaving one union to join another, it looks like they will.

[Airbagwill]

55 minutes ago, Sujo said:

the Scots themselves have chosen to remain in our union,

That's in the past - the current situation is different and reality is setting in.

[evadgib]

1 hour ago, Rookiescot said:

Short answer is British (English) nationalists are afraid of what will happen when Scotland leaves.

Afraid?

What of?

I just wish ???????????????????????????? would get on with it & stop whingeing.

[evadgib]

6 minutes ago, Airbagwill said:

Duh! No! but it has made a difference to the people of Scotland who are united in a wish to determine their own future - especially in relation to the EU and if that means leaving one union to join another, it looks like they will.

??

Not my quote.

[Airbagwill]

3 hours ago, evadgib said:

This exchange between 1845 & 1920 caught my ear last week while waiting for PMQ's...

 

what is your point?