Savage Dollar/Baht rate continues north....

[Chivas]

Whatever the Thais are doing to weaken it its not working lol

 

 

[RichardColeman]

8 minutes ago, Chivas said:

Whatever the Thais are doing to weaken it its not working lol

It is if you're a rich Thai and not a poor one

[EVENKEEL]

I'll be riding out the storm, but it's not pleasant.

[saengd]

It's New Years Day, you think the Forex markets are operating normally during the holidays! Nothing too much will change until Friday or perhaps Monday.

[Chivas]

10 minutes ago, saengd said:

It's New Years Day, you think the Forex markets are operating normally during the holidays! Nothing too much will change until Friday or perhaps Monday.

Sadly not fella the decline was seen into the late evening of the 30th

[saengd]

15 minutes ago, Chivas said:

Sadly not fella the decline was seen into the late evening of the 30th

And once again....the Dollar Index fell on the 30th, it is only just now starting to recover a little bit but today's a holioday, here, see for yourself. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

[tjo o tjim]

Volume is very low and volatility high with the holidays, but maybe we will see sub-30 for a spell.

[Aussieroaming]

Damn, I get paid in $USD and my monthly wage continues to cope a small exchange rate flogging.

[Jeffrey346]

30.10 this morning..

[soistalker]

The sh!try exchange rate, coupled with an immigration policy that doesnt want farangs and a nastier attitude in general by the population, makes selling your condo a good call. 

[Time Traveller]

24 minutes ago, Aussieroaming said:

Damn, I get paid in $USD and my monthly wage continues to cope a small exchange rate flogging.

I've found if you have your income and your expenses in the same currency, then you'll never need to worry about exchange rates.

Generally speaking a strong currency is preferential to a weakening one as the latter indicates the purchasing power is falling - most likely the central banks are diluting the currency and stealing from people's savings.

 

However, for exporters the stronger currency cuts their margins. In the case of Thailand, it's partly because the country exports too much. They have ongoing demand for baht - exporters repatriating dollars into baht, as well as the international tourists spending - bidding up the baht. Also, there are some legacy thai banking laws set up restricting outflow of capital from Thailand - eg. some laws limiting how much Thai's could invest overseas and so on.

So in summary, Thailand is a big exporting country which allows almost free movement of capital into the country, but has restrictions on the free outflow of capital. This creates an environment where the Baht will be steadily strengthening (at least until some external shock happens). 

 

 

Edited January 2, 2020 by Time Traveller

[Time Traveller]

18 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

It is if you're a rich Thai and not a poor one

Sorry to break your illusions, but rich people don't live and die by exchange rates. 

Business people might, but they'd much prefer a weaker exchange rate than a stronger one. 

[Brickbat]

It’s huge win for rich Thais buying overseas assets. And they pull all the strings. So I doubt if the poor locals or come to think of it....a dead end farang ( their view off course) even crosses their mind. 

[alanrchase]

Why assume it is what Thailand is doing? It could also be due to what the US is doing.

[Time Traveller]

17 minutes ago, Brickbat said:

It’s huge win for rich Thais buying overseas assets. And they pull all the strings. So I doubt if the poor locals or come to think of it....a dead end farang ( their view off course) even crosses their mind. 

It's not a huge win if you've already exchanged your Baht for foreign currency - the THB value of your overseas assets is falling.

The only Baht currency winners are the farangs who exchanged their money into baht at 33, and now it's sub 30......they've made 3+ baht in profit for every dollar they brought into Thailand.

Edited January 2, 2020 by Time Traveller

[fforest1]

A strong currency hurts the poor the most.....Weakening the Baht would help the poor vastly more than all these dumb stimulus programs put together times 10.......    

[Laza 45]

...you are looking in the wrong place folks.. The $Au is going up.. even the UK pound.. and of course the Thai Bt..  The problems for the US expats isn't the rich greedy Thais or the economic supervisors here or whatever other conspiracy theory you like.. the problem for US expats is in the US itself.. the $US is going down.. just as Trump wants it too.. have a chat with him about trade wars and currency manipulation .. 

[DennisE]

That’s the rate it’s been for the last two months. Over the next year possibly into 2021 it’s all supposed to start doing better at least it’s not dropping anymore it’s been like frozen just below 30 for the past few months. You really gotta watch it every month at least to have an idea how it’s gonna be in the future. 

[SiSePuede419]

Does anyone have a link to a Historical Baht to Dollar chart for 20 or more years?  Prefer a 100 year chart, if possible?!?!?

 

Apparently the people who trade currency are so dumb and ignorant of history they only show recent history.

 

It's as if the world didn't exist more than five years ago. ????

Edited January 2, 2020 by SiSePuede419

[sanemax]

2 minutes ago, SiSePuede419 said:

Does anyone have a link to a Historical Baht to Dollar chart for 20 or more years?  Prefer a 100 year chart, if possible?!?!?

 

Apparently the people who trade currency are so dumb and ignorant of history they only show 12 months of data (using Google to find). ????

I simple google search will find you that info

[saengd]

5 minutes ago, SiSePuede419 said:

Does anyone have a link to a Historical Baht to Dollar chart for 20 or more years?  Prefer a 100 year chart, if possible?!?!?

 

Apparently the people who trade currency are so dumb and ignorant of history they only show recent history.

 

It's as if the world didn't exist more than five years ago. ????

The Baht was hard pegged at 25 to USD before 1997.

Edited January 2, 2020 by saengd

[Pib]

Just an end of year dip.

[SiSePuede419]

7 minutes ago, sanemax said:

I simple google search will find you that info

I did.  Couldn't find it.  Apparently neither could you.

 

Here's a chart for 15 years. 

 

If you notice, there's a dip to current Baht strength between 2010 and 2015.

 

So no, the current exchange rate is *not* unprecedented.

 

 

 

Edited January 2, 2020 by SiSePuede419

[Pib]

32 minutes ago, SiSePuede419 said:

Does anyone have a link to a Historical Baht to Dollar chart for 20 or more years?  Prefer a 100 year chart, if possible?!?!?

 

Apparently the people who trade currency are so dumb and ignorant of history they only show recent history.

 

It's as if the world didn't exist more than five years ago. ????

Not hard to find....going back to 1960...60 years.

 

https://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates.php?A=1&C1=USD&C2=THB&DD1=13&MM1=03&YYYY1=1953&B=1&P=&I=1&DD2=01&MM2=01&YYYY2=2020&btnOK=Go!

 

 

And to explain those big spikes in the late 70s, mid 80's and late 1990's, Wikipedia sums it up well...see below.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thai_baht

Quote

From 1956 until 1973, the baht was pegged to the U.S. dollar at an exchange rate of 20.8 baht = one dollar and at 20 baht = 1 dollar until 1978.^[8][9][10] A strengthening US economy caused Thailand to re-peg its currency at 25 to the dollar from 1984 until 2 July 1997, when the country was affected by the 1997 Asian financial crisis. The baht was floated and halved in value, reaching its lowest rate of 56 to the dollar in January 1998. It has since risen to about 30 per dollar.

 

Edited January 2, 2020 by Pib

[bkk6060]

I see it going to 26 or 27.

 

[saengd]

3 minutes ago, SiSePuede419 said:

I did.  Couldn't find it.  Apparently neither could you.

 

Here's a chart for  only 15 years.  If you notice, there's a dip to current Baht strength between 2010 and 2015.

 

So, no the current exchange rate is *not* unprecedented.

 

 

 

https://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates.php?A=1&C1=USD&C2=THB&DD1=01&MM1=01&YYYY1=1953&B=1&P=&I=1&DD2=01&MM2=01&YYYY2=2020&btnOK=Go!

[bkk6060]

1 hour ago, Laza 45 said:

...you are looking in the wrong place folks.. The $Au is going up.. even the UK pound.. and of course the Thai Bt..  The problems for the US expats isn't the rich greedy Thais or the economic supervisors here or whatever other conspiracy theory you like.. the problem for US expats is in the US itself.. the $US is going down.. just as Trump wants it too.. have a chat with him about trade wars and currency manipulation .. 

One of the most ridiculous bias posts.

You jealous?

The stock market is up 50% under Trump my portfolio even more these have been boom times.

Get real and educate yourself on the truth...

PS:  He will get re-elected money #1!.

Edited January 2, 2020 by bkk6060

[Dante99]

1 hour ago, alanrchase said:

Why assume it is what Thailand is doing? It could also be due to what the US is doing.

Why assume it is what either is doing?  It could also be due to what they are not doing.  And you think third parties could have no effect?

[SiSePuede419]

18 minutes ago, Pib said:

Not hard to find....going back to 1960...60 years.

 

https://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates.php?A=1&C1=USD&C2=THB&DD1=13&MM1=03&YYYY1=1953&B=1&P=&I=1&DD2=01&MM2=01&YYYY2=2020&btnOK=Go!

 

Got it.  Thanks, mate.

 

So, people are whinging about a 29 Baht today, but according to your chart it was in the low 20's for years before being "fixed" the dollar at 25, then allowed to float up again?

 

Bottom line:

 

It's not the exchange rate, it's what you can buy with a Baht.

 

Did anyone see the Thai movie about a 50's era whorehouse?

 

One new employee exclaimed that she had never held a 20 Baht note in her hand before. ????

 

Of course, in the 50s minimum wage in America was less than $2 an hour and you could easily rent an apartment in New York City, LA or even San Francisco for $75 a month.

 

Inflation is more important than exchange rates, mates. ✓

[Pib]

Well, inflation is one key factor along with exchange rate and whether a person's income (wage/pension/investments/etc) increases or decreases to keep on par with inflation. 

 

If a person has a income that keeps up with inflation then income and inflation null each other out...then we are back to the exchange rate being the key factor....a factor that acts like a monkey wrench in the machinery....can damage the inflation and income gears.  

 

Some retirees have pensions which have an annual Cost of Living Adjustments (COLA) to help keep the income and inflation on par with each other; other retirees do not receive COLA.   

 

Each person is affected differently by exchange rate because each person's income, bills, etc., are different.    But for a person whose income is fixed, or even COLA adjusted, a downward exchange rate can hurt a little to a lot....each person is affected differently.