Thailand faces a reality check

[Max69xl]

On 1/17/2020 at 2:47 PM, canuckamuck said:

And how many of those people are counted multiple times because they travel for work?

Every guest worker comes and goes several times a year. Retirees uses re-entry or multiple re-entry permits when going back home to see their families. Some goes to neighbouring countries on vacation.

Then all visa runs to neighbouring countries. 

[Max69xl]

On 1/17/2020 at 2:42 PM, Phuketshrew said:

And there we have it. I "arrived" in Thailand 6 times last year. I would imagine there are many more that do the same. The "tourist" numbers that they constantly spout are nonsense. Why don't they just count those entering on tourist visas as tourists? Surely that would give them a more accurate number?

TAT and TCT don't want accurate numbers. They want to brag about the numbers and even about the increase in tourism which is just fake news. 

[AlphMichaels]

You start by not hiring an indigenous bank (@ an exorbitant fee) to do forecasts.  Modeling is and has always been suspect at best because they end up "adjusting".  By then it's too late. There's also a wormhole effect when taking prior data from reports as baseline if they were also poorly modeled.   I remember one back about 2010 done by a grad student for Koh Chang and Trat ecotourism.  It was a true head scratcher.   

 

Outsource to competent 3rd parties and take it as delivered.       

[digger70]

On 1/17/2020 at 2:47 PM, canuckamuck said:

And how many of those people are counted multiple times because they travel for work?

They got to get the numbers up one way or the other (fake news)  

[BigC]

Include border  bounces?

[Isaan sailor]

8 hours ago, dallen52 said:

Exactly. 

One year I had 14 sets of stamps when working for Ford on the Ranger.

Even after retirement and the last two years, I have had 13 sets of stamps due to family issues etc.

 

Well picked up..

Whatever you did—many thanks.  We love our Ranger.

[ChaiyaTH]

6 hours ago, Duck J Butters said:

Exactly. Northern Phuket is exploding with people. I’ve never seen it this busy. Layan beach in Laguna must have 2000 people out on the beach today. Little Naithon Beach had at least 500 people last weekend. The kinds of tourists that stay in Northern Phuket are wealthy, white, family-oriented and big spenders. Don’t believe me, go see for yourselves. I mean my God, it’s 30,000 baht / night to stay at a lot of these places. These aren’t poor people and they are here in obscene numbers.
 

The only reality that I see is that Thailand is growing up and moving from a cheap tourist destination to a luxury tourist destination for families. Big big money is coming into Thailand. It really is obscene.

You only forget that it isn't that expensive, many drive there to check that beach + Chinese booking such villa with 5-10 people making it inexpensive. 
I have a friend who rents out a villa too, always booked, with 5-10 pax sharing the cost. Not to mention it is supposed to be high season right now. 

That tourism numbers are fake big time doesn't mean that there are no tourists at all, I have said this before too. Why is so hard to understand?
And Thailand growing up? Give me a break, the service and quality for most things is laughable. This is not attracting more rich masses at all.

Edited January 18, 2020 by ChaiyaTH

[White Christmas13]

On 1/17/2020 at 3:42 PM, Phuketshrew said:

And there we have it. I "arrived" in Thailand 6 times last year. I would imagine there are many more that do the same. The "tourist" numbers that they constantly spout are nonsense. Why don't they just count those entering on tourist visas as tourists? Surely that would give them a more accurate number?

You can't just count the tourist visas, I've been 4 times to Thailand in one year and never needed

a visa because I can enter 30 days without a visa.

[konbit]

So, posters on this thread have proven (with a total lack of data) that Thailand is now way too crowded with too many tourists clogging up the roads and beer gardens, as an oversupply of hotel development, and tons of Chinese and Indians ruin the country... and the country is simultaneously lying about how many tourists arrive, since all the hotels are empty, and Saigon is better and nobody wants to come to Thailand any more for a billion different nebulous reasons...

 

Very confusing. 

[saengd]

16 hours ago, madmitch said:

Are you trying to say that the TAT is understating its figures?

 

Again, that would make you unique amongst TV members!

I had a "quick" look!

 

There are eleven international airports in Thailand, AOT operates the top six.

 

Using the AOT report for 2018 (below):

 

In 2018 there were 81.1 million international passenger movements (p1), broadly split between embarked and disembarked so figure 40.5 million arrived - this includes scheduled, charter and private flights. 

 

So, using traffic at just the six major airports: Of the 81.5 mill, about 7% were transit passengers (p67), figure net arrivals was 37.7 mill.

 

BUT... those figures do not consider international passengers arriving at:

 

U-tapao: receives 2.1 million passengers per year (nation 17 Feb 2018) but there's no split between international, scheduled and charter flights, a majority of Russian charters come via U-tapao.

 

Koh Samui: receives about 1.7 million arrivals by air but again there is no split between domestic and international, scheduled and charter.

 

Krabi: receives about 1 million passengers per year but no split between domestic and international.

 

Surat Thani: receives about 2 million passengers per year, no split available.

 

Udon: recieves around 2.5 million passengers per year but no split available,

 

Thai’s travelling overseas in 2018 was 8.79 million (Nation 5 July 2018), ergo, net international arrivals by air at the six largest airports was 37.7 million minus 8.79 million or a minimum confirmed airline passenger arrivals of 28.91 million. 

 

TAT claims 39 million tourists in 2018, the above leaves 10 million tourists unaccounted for, many from airports not listed which amount to a further 9 million passengers....and this is without considering tourists arriving via any of the 20 border crossing points.

 

Conclusion: 

 

TAT's figures are easily achievable using airline data statistics alone.

 

https://www.airportthai.co.th/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Annual-Airport-2018.pdf

https://www.nationthailand.com/Tourism/30349409

https://www.nationthailand.com/national/30339117

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_airports_in_Thailand

https://www.caat.or.th/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/กระบี่2016.pdf

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surat_Thani_International_Airport

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Udon_Thani_International_Airport

 

 

[chainarong]

Reality, really, tourism figures have never been honest, come to think of it, there's quite a few figures that are not honest in Thailand.

[saengd]

2 minutes ago, chainarong said:

Reality, really, tourism figures have never been honest, come to think of it, there's quite a few figures that are not honest in Thailand.

How about airplane passenger manifests, are they honest!!!

[Andycoops]

On 1/17/2020 at 2:54 PM, Roy Baht said:

Arrivals also include people who change planes on the way to Vietnam.

Not if they are in transit.

[Fireyfish]

On my pension Thailand is becoming too expensive for me the Philippines is become a probable destination again ... the food is not as good and I prefer the budhist way over the other ....

[madmitch]

4 hours ago, saengd said:

I had a "quick" look!

 

There are eleven international airports in Thailand, AOT operates the top six.

 

Using the AOT report for 2018 (below):

 

In 2018 there were 81.1 million international passenger movements (p1), broadly split between embarked and disembarked so figure 40.5 million arrived - this includes scheduled, charter and private flights. 

 

So, using traffic at just the six major airports: Of the 81.5 mill, about 7% were transit passengers (p67), figure net arrivals was 37.7 mill.

 

BUT... those figures do not consider international passengers arriving at:

 

U-tapao: receives 2.1 million passengers per year (nation 17 Feb 2018) but there's no split between international, scheduled and charter flights, a majority of Russian charters come via U-tapao.

 

Koh Samui: receives about 1.7 million arrivals by air but again there is no split between domestic and international, scheduled and charter.

 

Krabi: receives about 1 million passengers per year but no split between domestic and international.

 

Surat Thani: receives about 2 million passengers per year, no split available.

 

Udon: recieves around 2.5 million passengers per year but no split available,

 

Thai’s travelling overseas in 2018 was 8.79 million (Nation 5 July 2018), ergo, net international arrivals by air at the six largest airports was 37.7 million minus 8.79 million or a minimum confirmed airline passenger arrivals of 28.91 million. 

 

TAT claims 39 million tourists in 2018, the above leaves 10 million tourists unaccounted for, many from airports not listed which amount to a further 9 million passengers....and this is without considering tourists arriving via any of the 20 border crossing points.

 

Conclusion: 

 

TAT's figures are easily achievable using airline data statistics alone.

 

https://www.airportthai.co.th/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Annual-Airport-2018.pdf

https://www.nationthailand.com/Tourism/30349409

https://www.nationthailand.com/national/30339117

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_airports_in_Thailand

https://www.caat.or.th/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/กระบี่2016.pdf

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surat_Thani_International_Airport

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Udon_Thani_International_Airport

 

 

Thank you..........but I still disagree though will close the topic from my side!

[saengd]

3 minutes ago, madmitch said:

Thank you..........but I still disagree though will close the topic from my side!

Oh wait, how can you disagree with passenger manifests?

[justin case]

if only people in the world would see how thailand really is , they would not risk their life and spend to much money here ...

 

you have the forever single guys in their home countries that return to feel like a 2-week millionaire once or twice a year

 

 

[saengd]

2 minutes ago, justin case said:

if only people in the world would see how thailand really is , they would not risk their life and spend to much money here ...

 

you have the forever single guys in their home countries that return to feel like a 2-week millionaire once or twice a year

 

 

Why are you here, is it for the temples?

[spidermike007]

On 1/18/2020 at 1:53 PM, SkyFax said:

According to 2019 UN data, this is a ranking of world countries by population with Thailand at 20 and the 10 below and 10 above.

Which countries do you think meet the above criteria?

10    Mexico    
11    Japan    
12    Ethiopia
13    Philippines    
14    Egypt    
15    Vietnam    
16    DR Congo    
17    Germany    
18    Turkey    
19    Iran    
*** 20    Thailand    
21    United Kingdom    
22    France    
23    Italy    
24    South Africa    
25    Tanzania    
26    Myanmar    
27    Kenya    
28    South Korea    
29    Colombia    
30    Spain

BTW Liechtenstein is # 216.    

Spain, South Korea, Vietnam, Mexico, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Italy maybe, and South Africa.

[StevieAus]

On 1/18/2020 at 9:31 AM, kiwikeith said:

Do they count the Burmese going back and forth each day on borders and  the laborers crossing????

I don’t know about the Burmese but for the Thais if only going for the day they use a certified copy of their ID card obtained from the the local District Office there is no computer entry

At Mae Sai I notice the Burmese seem to go through in a separate line maybe something similar ?

[SkyFax]

50 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Spain, South Korea, Vietnam, Mexico, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Italy maybe, and South Africa.

Well I don't know that persons in those countries would all agree with you e.g.

 

Published Aug. 20, 2019
Updated Aug. 28, 2019

Italy’s Government Collapses, Turning Chaos Into Crisis

ROME — After 14 months of bickering, Italy’s government collapsed on Tuesday, plunging a key European nation already hobbled by financial fragility and political chaos into a renewed period of crisis and uncertainty.

 

NY Times (opinion) South Korea’s Enduring Racism July 1, 2018

South Korea has long been intolerant of outsiders, but the outrage triggered by this small number of Yemenis arriving on our shores shows how deep xenophobia runs here. For all of South Korea’s success as a democracy and as a thriving economy, compassion and humanitarian instincts are in short supply. And the government bears much of the blame for fostering this selfish mind-set.

 

Overseas Business Risk - Vietnam UK.GOV
Updated 26 August 2019

Vietnam is one of the more politically stable countries in South East Asia. Its leadership does not welcome dissent. Internal conflict is strictly controlled; ... 

 

There are strict restrictions on freedom of speech which can affect internet usage, particularly the use of social media and personal blogs, access to which can be blocked without notice. Cyber Security Law, which took effect since Jan 2019, requested greater compliance of international service providers to set up local offices and store data locally. Mainstream media outlets remain fully under the control and direction of the Communist Party so many people follow independent bloggers for their news updates. Many bloggers suffer harassment, arrest and imprisonment for criticising the Communist Party and government policies.

 

And Japan is still considered as a "Flawed Democracy" by the Economist Intelligence Unit (as is the US).

Edited January 19, 2020 by SkyFax

[spidermike007]

1 hour ago, SkyFax said:

Well I don't know that persons in those countries would all agree with you e.g.

 

Published Aug. 20, 2019
Updated Aug. 28, 2019

Italy’s Government Collapses, Turning Chaos Into Crisis

ROME — After 14 months of bickering, Italy’s government collapsed on Tuesday, plunging a key European nation already hobbled by financial fragility and political chaos into a renewed period of crisis and uncertainty.

 

NY Times (opinion) South Korea’s Enduring Racism July 1, 2018

South Korea has long been intolerant of outsiders, but the outrage triggered by this small number of Yemenis arriving on our shores shows how deep xenophobia runs here. For all of South Korea’s success as a democracy and as a thriving economy, compassion and humanitarian instincts are in short supply. And the government bears much of the blame for fostering this selfish mind-set.

 

Overseas Business Risk - Vietnam UK.GOV
Updated 26 August 2019

Vietnam is one of the more politically stable countries in South East Asia. Its leadership does not welcome dissent. Internal conflict is strictly controlled; ... 

 

There are strict restrictions on freedom of speech which can affect internet usage, particularly the use of social media and personal blogs, access to which can be blocked without notice. Cyber Security Law, which took effect since Jan 2019, requested greater compliance of international service providers to set up local offices and store data locally. Mainstream media outlets remain fully under the control and direction of the Communist Party so many people follow independent bloggers for their news updates. Many bloggers suffer harassment, arrest and imprisonment for criticising the Communist Party and government policies.

 

And Japan is still considered as a "Flawed Democracy" by the Economist Intelligence Unit (as is the US).

No doubt about it. All countries seem to have some issues. No utopias on this planet. But, countless governments beat this one hands down on dozens of levels. Not a particularly high bar to surpass. Thailand is perhaps one of the least progressive nations on earth. It seems to be moving backwards. 

 

The people wish for the army to get out! Get out now. You are not needed or wanted. You are despised. 

Edited January 19, 2020 by spidermike007

[Artisi]

On 1/17/2020 at 2:47 PM, canuckamuck said:

And how many of those people are counted multiple times because they travel for work?

Have to bolster the number some how and any head is a head - face, remember face. 

[Bruno123]

On 1/18/2020 at 2:31 AM, LomSak27 said:

Well said.

 

A general trend for decades, among real tourists, is using Thailand, well, as a hub if you want to call it that. People fly in & out because of cheap airfare. However they are just as likely to enter, then fly right back out to Myanmar for three weeks. Or spend those weeks circling Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia, & fly home via Bangkok. A lot more than just the old backpackers. You have flashpackers, millennial snowflakes, kitted out with Iphone, selfie stick, and spinner luggage. The main point is a large group of tourists are not spending much time in Thailand any more. TAT loves that head count but if anything they are fooling themselves. They do that a lot of other ways too, natch ... 

 

 

 

 

 

Indeed. A friend of mine just arrived from Italy. Two month trip. A week in Thailand with the rest of the time in Malaysia and perhaps Indonesia.

She only stayed in Thailand to visit me.

Edited January 19, 2020 by Bruno123

[Bruno123]

6 hours ago, saengd said:

Why are you here, is it for the temples?

 

I have an expat girlfriend.

 

Does Thailand have only temples to offer?

[Isaanbiker]

Reality check faces Thailand............

[Redline]

On 1/18/2020 at 8:34 AM, jesimps said:

Tourism may be down but it still took me an hour to drive into Pattaya from Phoenix Golf Course last Saturday evening. The roads were chocker with tour buses, I had to fight my way through mobs of Chinese and Russians strolling around and I couldn't get a table in the Beer Garden at the end of Walking Street. If you want to eat there these days, I'd advise you to get there before 6.30pm. I also did my 90 report at Jomtien a couple of weeks back and you couldn't move in the office. Arrived at about 10am and I was there for about 45 mins, everyone in front of me seemed to have problems, what's up with them? My report took about 30 secs as usual.

It’s all the families 

[thaibeachlovers]

Reality check? Los hasn't faced reality this century. It is living off the myth that it's a great place to holiday ( to concede that it's probably still great for those that shuttle in, bus to resort, spend a week or two in resort grounds with a couple or so "tours" thrown in, bus to airport, shuttle out ) for anyone that wants to arrive, look for a place to stay, travel around- beaches, hills, death railway etc- exit overland to neighbouring country, like they did last century. For the "backpacker" type tourist, LOS is a dead duck, and god help anyone that likes the place so much they want to keep visiting over and over without a non O or similar visa.

I had been considering a visit, but seems to me that Thai officialdom has so ruined the sanuk that I have serious doubts, given I don't want to go on a package tour.

The Thais have ruined the place as a casual visit destination. They are welcome to the Chinese hordes.

[thaibeachlovers]

10 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

No doubt about it. All countries seem to have some issues. No utopias on this planet. But, countless governments beat this one hands down on dozens of levels. Not a particularly high bar to surpass. Thailand is perhaps one of the least progressive nations on earth. It seems to be moving backwards. 

 

The people wish for the army to get out! Get out now. You are not needed or wanted. You are despised. 

Soooo, get rid of the army and utopia returns

LOL.

[saengd]

Everyone's telling me that tourist numbers are down, people running some businesses I know say that, sales people I know at one large 5 star tell me that plus one or two of the malls feel more empty than normal.....certainly, the Thaivisa Forum herd voice is saying that. Some of the sales at some stores in the mall seem deeper and longer.

 

But last night on Walking Street in Chiang Mai the place was heaving with tourists, not just a few but loads of them. I've been going to Walking Street for years and I've seen it in really busy times, last night was just as busy as ever, lots of Chinese of course but also Europeans and Americans, all nationalities as far as I could tell. 

 

It's difficult to know what the real story is here, could it be that tourists have simply changed their behavior, people now staying in apartments rather than hotels and doing different things? For sure there must be a downturn in the numbers because of the high value of the Baht and the state of the global economy but my eyes tell me there's still plenty of tourists here. The BIL runs a small tour/travel business, he tells me he's just as busy now as a year ago; my wife is a registered tour guide and she says the chatter among the official LINE group of 300 or more is negative; tried to book a flight to Bangkok last week and the ones I wanted were all fully booked.......difficult to know the extent of things and whether the noise is overdone or not.