If all expats left: Little impact on Thai economy

[BobbyL]

1 minute ago, saengd said:

Against government revenues of nearly 4 trillion baht, yep, that 1.5 mill. baht farang teacher tax would be a serious loss!

 

Thailand's Government Revenue is forecasted to be 3,720.639 THB bn in Sep 2020 as reported by International Monetary Fund - World Economic Outlook. It records an increase from the last reported number of 3,593.864 THB bn in Sep 2019.

 

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/thailand/forecast-government-revenue

Where did I say that just a measly 1.5M would be a big loss?

 

My example was from one international school as one example, not all the other expat workers.  Do the maths and you're talking 100s and 100s of millions of THB per year in income tax being paid. 

[saengd]

3 minutes ago, BobbyL said:

Where did I say that just a measly 1.5M would be a big loss?

 

My example was from one international school as one example, not all the other expat workers.  Do the maths and you're talking 100s and 100s of millions of THB per year in income tax being paid. 

Fine, reduce government revenue  of almost 4 trillion by a few 100 of millions and see what that impact is, negligible to non-existent, don't overate your importance to Thailand, it aint that great!

 

And as much as I don't want to I'll let go your statement about 100's of expat teachers at a single school each paying 15K in tax every month. Maybe they are or maybe the number is exaggerated, fact is the first 300k of earnings is tax free and there are tax exemptions on top of that. But if they, I wonder how many of the 150K western expats are in that category, I'm guessing around 0.1% maximum so hardly a standard across the board. 

[Chivas]

2 hours ago, cmarshall said:

I'll bet it's a lot closer to 50k foreigners.  The 38 million tourist visits as a whole contribute between 6% and 10% of GDP.  No way the expats amount to half that.

I'd actually submit its even lower than that. The vast majority seem to live a pitiful existance (not all) and I'd imagine the Thai economy wouldn't even blink if the whole lot were ejected overnight

[Traubert]

14 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

What truth? Yours?

Whenever did I post that they will not survive? When did I post that the bar scene will die? That you want to take things to the edge, that´s entirely your problem. The only confusion here is that you do not understand what you read, and quote what you thought you read. I posted that they will definitely feel the differens. 

Last you are talking the numbers again. The numbers are only important to the government. Not to the single families and the single individuals affected.

No, the OPs. That's the game see. An OP posts something and we comment on it? Roger so far?

 

I understand perfectly, difficult though it is, and oftentimes nigh impossible, to unravel what you say.

 

There would be minimal impact on the bar scene and Thai society if western expats shipped out. There. Capisce? Oops, sorry, understand (a little European flair there, that's flair as in style, not flare as in maroon). The reason being, Thailand was here before barstools were invented and Thai people didn't have unwanted foreigners intruding on their peaceful existences with their western values.

 

[saengd]

Regardless of what the true number of expats really is - The 39 million tourists have a value of USD 100 bill. or 20% of GDP whereas losing 200k expats is a minimum USD 16 bill. or 3% of GDP......that makes sense.

[BobbyL]

1 minute ago, saengd said:

And as much as I don't want to I'll let go your statement about 100's of expat teachers at a single school each paying 15K in tax every month. Maybe they are or maybe the number is exaggerated, fact is the first 300k of earnings is tax free and there are tax exemptions on top of that. 

Yeah, I am aware of the tax brackets here. There are around 100 expat teachers at my place (not 100s) and the pay scale starts at well over 100k / month. Once you add in a high number of staff who are further up the pay scale (it goes to 20 years), subjects leaders, management positions etc then I think a rough guess of 15,000 / month is fine. It may even be more as things like annual flights and bonuses are taxable too. 

 

Does one international school make an impact? No. Do ten of them make an impact? No. However, I am sticking to my point that a good number of working expats here earn a good salary which is taxed accordingly. In a country where the average salary is around 15,000 - 20,000 / month, I think there would be a gradual impact if say from next month onward, none of the expats' taxes were being contributed. 

[saengd]

3 minutes ago, BobbyL said:

Yeah, I am aware of the tax brackets here. There are around 100 expat teachers at my place (not 100s) and the pay scale starts at well over 100k / month. Once you add in a high number of staff who are further up the pay scale (it goes to 20 years), subjects leaders, management positions etc then I think a rough guess of 15,000 / month is fine. It may even be more as things like annual flights and bonuses are taxable too. 

 

Does one international school make an impact? No. Do ten of them make an impact? No. However, I am sticking to my point that a good number of working expats here earn a good salary which is taxed accordingly. In a country where the average salary is around 15,000 - 20,000 / month, I think there would be a gradual impact if say from next month onward, none of the expats' taxes were being contributed. 

As a special concession I will allow you to reduce government income of 3.8 trillion baht by one billion, even though this is extreme, just to cater to your argument, please tell us how much that leaves and what the amount of remaining income is?

[tomacht8]

What the OP forgot to count are the overlay effects.
Difficult to calculate such effects.
For example: Many friends (tourists) and relatives (tourists) visit me, - the expat - each year.
In some years, more than 20 people a year. They come primarily to Thailand to visit me.
If one now expects the loss of x * 1000 expats, one would have to add the loss of x * 1000 tourists.
And some of my friends spend more than 8,000 euros on their vacation.

[saengd]

3 minutes ago, tomacht8 said:

What the OP forgot to count are the overlay effects.
Difficult to calculate such effects.
For example: Many friends (tourists) and relatives (tourists) visit me, - the expat - each year.
In some years, more than 20 people a year. They come primarily to Thailand to visit me.
If one now expects the loss of x * 1000 expats, one would have to add the loss of x * 1000 tourists.
And some of my friends spend more than 8,000 euros on their vacation.

You must be very popular or have a very large family. In the seventeen years I've lived here nobody has come from overseas to visit, nobody has wanted to visit Thailand. And thinking about all the western expats I know who live here, 99% do not receive visitors, most came here to get away from those people, I certainly did.

[ThomasThBKK]

2 minutes ago, saengd said:

You must be very popular or have a very large family. In the seventeen years I've lived here nobody has come from overseas to visit, nobody has wanted to visit Thailand. And thinking about all the western expats I know who live here, 99% do not receive visitors, most came here to get away from those people, I certainly did.

 

I think, no one here is surprised about that.

 

I would call absolute BS that 99% don't receive visitors, each year i have multiple visitors.

[ThomasThBKK]

Just now, pdtokyo said:

I haven't arrived yet, but if you're all going to leave before i get there can i make an offer to anyone who is dumping a nice BMW R1150RT ? ????

 

( i'll post you the cash and you can leave the keys up the exhaust pipe )

Western car, will no longer be allowed here, sorry.

 

it's better for you, because everyone working for BMW will be fired anyway and you can't get replacement parts.

[cmarshall]

1 hour ago, talahtnut said:

If the Dollar goes tits up, we may all have to leave.

The dollar is not in such danger.  But if the Bank of Thailand were to stop buying dollars to suppress the value of the baht, it would have gained more than the 9% it did last year.

[Ventenio]

I only read the first post, so maybe redundant.  

 

OK, all expats leave and now everyone knows NOT ONE Expat lives in Thailand.  I would suspect the word would get out, Thailand would be LAST (or close) on places to move to or retire, and then soon tourists would stop coming.  This would be a massive red flag.  Then the hundreds or thousands of articles on, "Why don't any expats live in Thailand."
 

Then, in 10-years, the affect would be much greater.  

[Destiny1990]

Add in ur calculations that every happy expat probably gets 3-5 overseas friends, relatives annually to visit him for 1-2 months. Tourists !

Happy expats often make good word to mouth advertisements in their home country for the country they living in. The flip side is that unhappy expats will do the opposite !

[new2here]

3 hours ago, Sticky Wicket said:

It would hit certain pockets of the country hard.

A lot of Issan has been funded over the years by expats.

When 'John' gives "Fon' 10,000 baht that money then splits off into various avenues and assists a lot of people.

Extrapolate that and you are talking about affecting a lot of lives

I agree.  I think that on a purely nationwide basis, the direct impact would be minimal at best... but ... as you note, I think the impact would vary from area to area and among different socio-economic classes rather than wholly uniform.

 

i do also think that one would be wise, from a national perspective, to have the most diversified economic base as possible.  So... while I suspect that expressed as a % of GDP, the direct spending power of the “expatriate” is in the low, low single digits, I think that every little bit helps.. plus it spreads out your risk when the economic climate invariably changes and one part of your GDP that was formerly working well for you, is now under stress 

[brokenbone]

its more important to look at the yearly injection into the economy,

i think its reasonable to assume a falang on average spend 50k per month,

600.000 per year, then multiply with how many there are for the yearly injection.

this is typically not investment, but pure spending,

unlike chinese that typically spend their money wisely on investment

 

Edited January 23, 2020 by brokenbone

[ThomasThBKK]

12 minutes ago, brokenbone said:

its more important to look at the yearly injection into the economy,

i think its reasonable to assume a falang on average spend 50k per month,

600.000 per year, then multiply with how many there are for the yearly injection.

this is typically not investment, but pure spending,

unlike chinese that typically spend their money wisely on investment

 

There is also this thing called farrang company....

 

BMW, Harley, GE..... they don't exactly like if their workers are thrown out.

And let's face it you <deleted> off one big american company here and donny boy will skrew thailand over, like he did with the glyphosat.

[metempsychotic]

3 hours ago, ThomasThBKK said:

extremely simplified non sense calculation.

 

Most expat workers here are in higher positions, CEOs of BMW and co., Samsung etc.

You can say what you want but if westerners leave that will also include all japanese and koreans (Toyota, Samsung etc).

 

If they all have to leave, then for a damn good reason. That reason would be so bad that all above mentioned companies would be shut, all foreign direct investment would stop and the economy would be majorly skrewed.

That reason  will be the same reason that will stop tourists from coming here.

 

But those expats have no issues with red tape and meet all requirements. Why would they leave?

[bkk6060]

According to many on here everyone has already left.

So now, it is what it is.

[CGW]

3 hours ago, Yinn said:

thailand not have enough worker for the job. We must get worker from Burma, Cambodia and Laos. 3 million now. 

If 150,000 expat go, maybe = 150,000 less foreign worker. 

You paint a very idealistic view for the employment sector, will Thai people work for the same money that the nationalities you mention get?

I don't think so!

[Matzzon]

1 hour ago, Traubert said:

No, the OPs. That's the game see. An OP posts something and we comment on it? Roger so far?

 

I understand perfectly, difficult though it is, and oftentimes nigh impossible, to unravel what you say.

 

There would be minimal impact on the bar scene and Thai society if western expats shipped out. There. Capisce? Oops, sorry, understand (a little European flair there, that's flair as in style, not flare as in maroon). The reason being, Thailand was here before barstools were invented and Thai people didn't have unwanted foreigners intruding on their peaceful existences with their western values.

 

You show again clearly, and with flair, that you do not understand. I never posted they will not make it or that any business would disappear. Capisce? Opps! 

Now you go back to comment on the OP post, as you clearly can´t understand enough to post on mine, or are you going to make the same mistake twice?

 

My main focus was not the bar scene either, that you seem to be so hooked on. It was actually all the break up of families and the economical standard for those, but that you chose to disregard because you probably like to talk about hookers more. ????????

Edited January 23, 2020 by Matzzon

[Matzzon]

2 minutes ago, CNXexpat said:

 

You see, when I quote you there is nothing written in your post. That´s because you went against the rules and wrote in my post.
 

However, you seem to be one classy guy. Keep up the good style.

Regarding the bar scene. Are there bars in CM? Yes. Are there bargirls in CM? Yes. That makes it kinda same, right?

 

Yes, a lot of restauarants would have to close. That´s a fact.

[Traubert]

5 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

You show again clearly, and with flair, that you do not understand. I never posted they will not make it or that any business would disappear. Capisce? Opps! 

Now you go back to comment on the OP post, as you clearly can´t understand enough to post on mine, or are you going to make the same mistake twice?

Haven't made it once yet, patience. It's 'oops,' by the way.

 

I said: The bar scene and Thai society will suffer minimal disruption without expat patrons. I really can't put it any clearer.  This is the third time I've said it and you still ramble about me not understanding. I think you'll find it's you who is not understanding. C'est vrai?

[saengd]

4 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

Regarding the bar scene. Are there bars in CM? Yes. Are there bargirls in CM? Yes. That makes it kinda same, right?

 

Yes, a lot of restauarants would have to close. That´s a fact.

Too funny, have you ever been to Chiang Mai, the bar girl population here totals about fourteen, on a good day.

[ThomasThBKK]

14 minutes ago, metempsychotic said:

But those expats have no issues with red tape and meet all requirements. Why would they leave?

Nor do i, and everyone else here, or they wouldn't be here.

 

Why would we leave? 

Quote

Let’s say there are Western 200,000 expats in Thailand, that’s a mix of farang retirees and those working here…see the link below for how this figure was calculated;

The whole topic is about all western expats leaving...

[metempsychotic]

3 minutes ago, saengd said:

Too funny, have you ever been to Chiang Mai, the bar girl population here totals about fourteen, on a good day.

People assume their own lifestyle is universal. Very few on thaivisa seem to grasp that retirees and sexpats are very small beer in the grand scheme of things.

[Lacessit]

4 hours ago, Denim said:

Yes, but if I leave the local female population will be devastated.

 

Everything will grind to a halt.

Your use of the term "grind" a Freudian slip?

[metempsychotic]

7 minutes ago, ThomasThBKK said:

Nor do i, and everyone else here, or they wouldn't be here.

 

Why would we leave? 

The whole topic is about all western expats leaving...

Actually the topic is about the insignificance of expats leaving, and utilizes a very narrow notion of what an expat actually is.

[ThomasThBKK]

1 minute ago, metempsychotic said:

Actually the topic is about the insignificance of expats leaving, and utilizes a very narrow notion of what an expat actually is.

 

Quote

Let’s say there are Western 200,000 expats in Thailand, that’s a mix of farang retirees and those working here

 

 

Expat by definition includes workers, even means originally only workers.... just doesn't fit your narrative hu?

 

 

 

[saengd]

2 minutes ago, metempsychotic said:

Actually the topic is about the insignificance of expats leaving, and utilizes a very narrow notion of what an expat actually is.

"Western retirees and those working here" is a pretty broad definition actually.