Is it safe to travel to Thailand? Latest advice after deadly coronavirus kills 132

[balo]

I am a bit worried since I have a flight to Las Vegas in March, departure from Europe. 

If they start cancelling flights everywhere we have a problem. 



 

Edited January 31, 2020 by balo

[cerox]

Would not be worried too much about the flights.

If they cancel it, you get a refund.

I have also around 6 flights up to until Europe in the next two months. All non-refundable 555

What bothers me more is how to do it on a long-haul flight, these masks are not really comfortable for so many hours. Also as I said before, stockpile (masks) does not last forever so I have to be stingy, since it is so difficult to buy more.

[ICELANDMAN]

Now last information from Thai government, everyone speaking about fake news coronavirus go arrest and send prison.

Everyone is warned

[ThaiBunny]

Sad to say for those who like some drama in their life, both the Chinese and Australian governments have announced that some patients who have been detected with the virus have now recovered and been sent home from hospital - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-31/nsw-coronavirus-patients-released-from-hospital-infection-free/11915834

 

Worse for them, opinion is divided as to whether we've seen the peak and are now in a (albeit slow) decline - https://www.smh.com.au/national/we-could-be-seeing-the-peak-experts-divided-as-spread-of-coronavirus-slows-20200130-p53wan.html

[HHTel]

2 hours ago, LivinLOS said:

Another way of looking at is there are, according to the johns hopkins data set (at time of posting) 143 'recovered'... So 143 recovered out of almost 10,000 infected. 

The infections may be higher bringing the mortality rate down.  Many have recovered from WuFlu after having only mild symptoms and have not reported for treatment and therefore not counted.

Maybe they'll start checking everyone for antibodies to identify how many have recovered.  Of course, I'm joking.

Just to say, because of the varying degrees of infection, we don't really know the actual figures.

[Angry Dragon]

24 minutes ago, HHTel said:

The infections may be higher bringing the mortality rate down.  Many have recovered from WuFlu after having only mild symptoms and have not reported for treatment and therefore not counted.

Maybe they'll start checking everyone for antibodies to identify how many have recovered.  Of course, I'm joking.

Just to say, because of the varying degrees of infection, we don't really know the actual figures.

researchers in HK have estimated that tens of thousands have already contacted it, bringing the mortality figures much more in the range of normal flu.  this is based on thousands of people who have mild to no symptoms not being diagnosed, people being turned away from overcrowded hospitals and not being diagnosed, and those who just stay at home and don't even bother reporting.

 

monday we will move to a new news item of the week.

[rabas]

3 hours ago, LivinLOS said:

The Lancent has published a paper with a studied death rate of 11% from the first cohort. 

 

The 2 - 3 % is 1) chinese publishing and 2) without factoring in the delay time between onset of symptoms and mortality.. 

Another way of looking at is there are, according to the johns hopkins data set (at time of posting) 143 'recovered'... So 143 recovered out of almost 10,000 infected. 

 

Basically until this runs much more of a duration, we have no way to be sure of mortality only to know that 2 - 3% looks at the low end. 

Agree, I think the 3% is more pop-culture spread by people (even here) who divide the reported number of dead by the total case load, many of whom just entered hospital. The first formal report of 41 patients who had either recovered or died gave a figure of 14.6% fatalities,  similar to SARS.

 

That make sense as genetically this virus is more bat like (potentially deadly) than SARS was. SARS came though civets possibly making it a bit more civilized. 

 

Spanish flu was another new to humans virus that initially behaved like a flu. It then mutated and started killing the young (those reminding us how safe they are). Roughly half the people killed were between 20 and 40.

 

What happens when nCoV2019 mutates is completely unknown, it could well become milder and a permanent resident on Earth.  "Sorry boss, can't come today, got a Chinese cold."

[marquis22]

21 hours ago, Parsve said:

I guess that you have missed that the Thai helth minister yesterday declared that there should not be any official reports from Thailand about Coronavirus before February 7 and also that the first person outside China that have died of Corona-virus was in Chang Mai.

Yes, did miss that. Just being a bit flippant and stating what i have read and that not being too much as there is a lot to be divulged as time goes by. Let me know the latest %age when you can!

[placnx]

8 hours ago, LivinLOS said:

The Lancent has published a paper with a studied death rate of 11% from the first cohort. 

 

The 2 - 3 % is 1) chinese publishing and 2) without factoring in the delay time between onset of symptoms and mortality.. 

Another way of looking at is there are, according to the johns hopkins data set (at time of posting) 143 'recovered'... So 143 recovered out of almost 10,000 infected. 

 

Basically until this runs much more of a duration, we have no way to be sure of mortality only to know that 2 - 3% looks at the low end. 

I agree. FYI The Lancet is one of the leading medical journals in the world. To amplify previous poster's point, with such a fast moving infectious epidemic with significant latency until death or recovery, it is very important to understand current death/recovery statistics as compared with a look back at infection statistics by the number of days of an average course of detected infection until resolution one way or the other. As for the infections that do/did not rise to the notice of the system, they can be considered irrelevant for the purposes of calculating death rate after medical intervention.

 

As time goes on, further analysis will yield answers to questions about susceptibility of various age groups, etc.

 

To control this epidemic, a rapid and inexpensive field test is urgently needed. Is this possible?

[DrTuner]

8 hours ago, LivinLOS said:

The Lancent has published a paper with a studied death rate of 11% from the first cohort. 

Here's the link: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30211-7/fulltext

 

What is unsettling is the dead/recovered ratio stubbornly keeps over 50% and has for days. Today from JHU's dashboard it's 213/(213+187) = 53.25%. It seems to take a very long time to end up in the recovered side of it. Or maybe they aren't prioritizing checking if the virus has cleared since new cases are pouring in. Hard to see what is happening behind the numbers with China's Great Internet Wall in place.

[rabas]

38 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Here's the link: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30211-7/fulltext

 

What is unsettling is the dead/recovered ratio stubbornly keeps over 50% and has for days. Today from JHU's dashboard it's 213/(213+187) = 53.25%. It seems to take a very long time to end up in the recovered side of it. Or maybe they aren't prioritizing checking if the virus has cleared since new cases are pouring in. Hard to see what is happening behind the numbers with China's Great Internet Wall in place.

Yes, agree, both numbers seem suspiciously low. I heard today that China has an acknowledged problem with how they count fatalities. For someone with pre-existing conditions who dies of the flu, the death certificate lists the pre-existing condition as cause of death, not flu. That is different from the West.  That could also affect the cured number, rendering both dead and cured low.

 

FYI, the 3g.dyx.cn site is updating faster, it is now up to 9910 China confirmed vs JHU's 9656.

Total confirmed+suspected just past 25000.

Edited January 31, 2020 by rabas

[GroveHillWanderer]

5 hours ago, rabas said:

That make sense as genetically this virus is more bat like (potentially deadly) than SARS was. SARS came though civets possibly making it a bit more civilized.

I'm not sure that being "more bat like" makes it more deadly. What would be the basis for that?

 

In addition, this new virus also apparently came via another animal and not directly from bats.

 

As stated in the afore-mentioned Lancet publication:

 

Quote

"These data are consistent with a bat reservoir for coronaviruses in general and 2019-nCoV in particular," said Professor Guizhen Wu, from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

 

"However, despite the importance of bats, it seems likely that another animal host is acting as an intermediate host between bats and humans," said Wu.

Hidden animal spreading coronavirus - Lancet-study

[anchadian]

Jonathan Head has said that 5 new WuhanCoronavirus cases confirmed in Thailand. One, a taxi-driver, the first Thai infected here.

[HHTel]

3 minutes ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

I'm not sure that being "more bat like" makes it more deadly. What would be the basis for that?

 

In addition, this new virus also apparently came via another animal and not directly from bats.

 

As stated in the afore-mentioned Lancet publication:

 

Hidden animal spreading coronavirus - Lancet-study

That was the same with SARS.  Originated in bats then jumped to civet cats which then jumped to humans.

[anchadian]

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51325192?ns_mchannel=social&ns_linkname=news_central&ns_campaign=bbc_breaking&ns_source=twitter

 

Two coronavirus cases confirmed in UK

 

Two people have tested positive for coronavirus in the UK, the chief medical officer for England has announced.

They are both members of the same family and are receiving specialist NHS care.

Edited January 31, 2020 by anchadian

[ParkerN]

On 1/30/2020 at 5:43 AM, smedly said:

for Thailand it could be too late since screening is ineffective at identifying those infected, they show no symptoms and can still spread the virus which makes this a very dangerous situation

 

Thailand needs to take some very serious steps now or this will spread out of control if it hasn't already 

Na. If the numbers show it's out of control, they only need to lie about it and everything will be alright again - you know, the usual thing.

 

But rest easy, Thais know best. It'll all be OK, no need to lose revenue or anything like that.

 

[elliss]

On 1/30/2020 at 10:24 AM, Mikeasq60 said:

I'll be traveling to Thailand on the 8th of February. I'm looking forward to a wonderful holiday with my wife. and I'm a senior citizen also. Not worried about virus in the least 

 

         Old age has its benefits  one is , too give up worrying.

 Whats the point of worry , it never cured anything .

          Enjoy your holiday, with your wife.

 

 

Edited February 1, 2020 by elliss

[DrTuner]

20 minutes ago, elliss said:

 Old age has its benefits  one is , too give up worrying.

Yeah, if you only have a couple of years left anyway, how you exit is just a style issue. Bit different when you have many decades left.

[whiteman]

lock the doors stay inside till March and watch Leeds United win Promotion

[tropo]

On 1/30/2020 at 6:35 AM, SkyFax said:

All I can say is that, if for Thailand it is too late and that this has spread out of control already, I'm glad I'm not in Pattaya.

14 cases, and you believe it has spread out of control? Looking for reasons not to be in Pattaya?

 

Thailand is a minor risk compared to its poorer neighbours that don't have the resources to contain it. They are panicking right now in the Philippines. Either way, if it does spread "out of control", it's not a country specific problem and you won't be safe wherever you are hiding. Sooner or later you need to go shopping, or visit an immigration office.

[tropo]

3 hours ago, DrTuner said:

Yeah, if you only have a couple of years left anyway, how you exit is just a style issue. Bit different when you have many decades left.

You're confident. How does one determine how long they have left?

[EricTh]

People are getting too paranoid nowadays.

 

I was walking in a tourist area in Chiang Mai for the last few days where there are lots of Chinese tourist and I am still fine.

 

The chance of you getting a virus from Wuhan in Thailand is one in 10 million.

[elliss]

3 hours ago, DrTuner said:

Yeah, if you only have a couple of years left anyway, how you exit is just a style issue. Bit different when you have many decades left.

 

 Get it in writing Dr...

 

Edited February 1, 2020 by elliss

[elliss]

45 minutes ago, tropo said:

You're confident. How does one determine how long they have left?

 

            Get a second opinon ...

 

 

Edited February 1, 2020 by elliss

[tropo]

30 minutes ago, EricTh said:

People are getting too paranoid nowadays.

 

I was walking in a tourist area in Chiang Mai for the last few days where there are lots of Chinese tourist and I am still fine.

 

The chance of you getting a virus from Wuhan in Thailand is one in 10 million.

The incubation period can be up to 14 days.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-incubation-period/

 

You're not out of the woods yet. The fact that it can be transmitted by asymptomatic people makes it particularly frightening.

 

[khunpa]

46 minutes ago, tropo said:

14 cases, and you believe it has spread out of control? Looking for reasons not to be in Pattaya?

 

Thailand is a minor risk compared to its poorer neighbours that don't have the resources to contain it. They are panicking right now in the Philippines. Either way, if it does spread "out of control", it's not a country specific problem and you won't be safe wherever you are hiding. Sooner or later you need to go shopping, or visit an immigration office.

Just for your info it got to 19 yesterday and one of the infected was a Thai taxi driver. Thailand is a HUGE risk just so you know. 

[HHTel]

8 minutes ago, khunpa said:

Just for your info it got to 19 yesterday and one of the infected was a Thai taxi driver. Thailand is a HUGE risk just so you know. 

19 but only 10 ill (9 have recovered and discharged) Sort of puts it into perspective.

So far, there are no deaths outside of China and many have recovered or are recovering.

[tropo]

16 minutes ago, khunpa said:

Just for your info it got to 19 yesterday and one of the infected was a Thai taxi driver. Thailand is a HUGE risk just so you know. 

Yes, I'm aware of that. 19? 14? nitpicking are we?

 

I read that 7 of them were discharged.

 

Maybe you know what percentage of the deaths in China so far were young and healthy people? We know the flu kills many people worldwide. 

 

I would call Thailand a risk, but not a huge risk. If the risk increases, Chinese tourists will be barred from entering. 

Edited February 1, 2020 by tropo

[Acrylic]

I don't understand why people want to visit Thailand at this time. It's not like that Thailand is the only place they can visit and Thailand will still be here years later. No need to visit right now. 

[khunpa]

9 minutes ago, tropo said:

Yes, I'm aware of that. 19? 14? nitpicking are we?

 

I read that 7 of them were discharged.

 

Maybe you know what percentage of the deaths in China so far were young and healthy people? We know the flu kills many people worldwide. 

 

I would call Thailand a risk, but not a huge risk. If the risk increases, Chinese tourists will be barred from entering. 

This is not about deaths or death rates. Please to get an idea of what the danger is, then look at Wuhan. The problem is that it does not take many infected to take down the hospitals and their ressources. Dead people are easy to deal with. Sick people are not.