SURVEY: Coronavirus, is the gov’t doing enough?

[Scott]

With the coronavirus causing so many problems, do you think the Thai government is doing enough to keep Thailand and tourists safe?  

 

Please feel free to leave a comment and let us know what you think needs to be done.  

[RBOP]

I believe government is not showing the true numbers in order to avoid a panic. I believe they will slowly release numbers to make the curve look smooth like China is doing. In a week it will be too late. 

[bkkcanuck8]

There is not much the government can do, right now it is all a delaying game -- it is a matter of a few months before it will be widespread in the general population. 

 

The current R₀ is 2.68 (infected person passes it along to 2.68 other people on average).  The doubling time is 6.4 days.  At that rate it is a matter of 4 months til it has spread to the entire population (of course never infects everyone).  The virus is not going to be contained... the only hope is delaying it long enough to have a 'flu' vaccine for it, but that will likely come too late in the cycle.  On the bright side, most people will soon be immunized to it... the hard way.

[SpanishExpat]

Well..Thailand is aiming at the exact strategy China aimed at (but failed). Try to keep the numbers in secret, hope it won`t spread and thus minimize the negative impact on the tourism sector (which is already massive anyway). If it turns out positive, they will say everything was under control and they will praise themselves. If it turns out negative, they have to go and will go public as late as possible like China did.

 

Looking at it objectively, Thailand has done ZERO until now. The tour groups ban was decided by China and not by Thailand.

Edited February 3, 2020 by SpanishExpat

[mtls2005]

Today's arrivals from mainland China:

 

BKK:  33 flights

DMK:   7 flights

 

I weeded out the few cancellations.

 

TG did announce they would be cutting capacity Feb 8 - 20  https://www.thaiairways.com/en/news/news_announcement/news_detail/china-flightinfo.page

[chilly07]

Obviously not!

As one of the worst affected outside of China Thailand should have closed its borders to the Chinese immediately. As China owns most of Thailand they won't do anything.

[khunpa]

With a static number at 19 infected for days and huge rise in possible cases, there is reason to be very concerned.

 

Where are the test results?

[sirineou]

I did not participate in this survey as I find the binary choice inadequate.

This survey is simply red meat to get the dogs barking.

When is anyone doing enough in these situations? It is a complex situation containing many components , not all of which are medical , (medical, economic, political) . I am  sure they are doing the best they can balancing all of the above concerns. 

[DrTuner]

They have done less than nothing: the diagnosis backlog from the pending cases is not moving. Either they are deliberately stopping the test from being done or they do not have capacity:

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/situation.php

 

Quote

There are 405 cases in which laboratory results are pending.

This number increases every day with just a few tests being completed.

[SkyFax]

From report 2FEB as linked above:

 

Severe cases  --  0

[Jumbo1968]

1 hour ago, mtls2005 said:

Today's arrivals from mainland China:

 

BKK:  33 flights

DMK:   7 flights

 

I weeded out the few cancellations.

 

TG did announce they would be cutting capacity Feb 8 - 20  https://www.thaiairways.com/en/news/news_announcement/news_detail/china-flightinfo.page

12000 plus potential carriers of the disease arriving who could be travelling to various locations in Thailand, great way of trying to stop Coronavirus spreading !

[Jumbo1968]

What about this report from the USA, quite a few passed away here with flu ?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-31/there-s-another-virus-stalking-the-u-s-and-it-s-called-the-flu

[bkkcanuck8]

9 minutes ago, Jumbo1968 said:

12000 plus potential carriers of the disease arriving who could be travelling to various locations in Thailand, great way of trying to stop Coronavirus spreading !

It is very simplistic to believe that you can just close a border and keep a virus like this from spreading.  At most you delay it.  Every human (and in this case some forms of animals) are potential carriers of the virus.  Suddenly panicking and closing the border which will lead to panic in the population and the implosion of the economy (which relies on trade) would be much more damaging than suffering through a rather nasty 'flu'.  Only a small minority will end up with ARDS (Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome) and it will likely be bell curved to those with existing conditions and the elderly.  The current mortality rate is around 2% (it may be higher it may be lower).  The Spanish flu had a mortality rate of 10% of those infected (3% of the world's population as about 1/3 of the worlds population caught it).   The cost of closing the borders to the economy and peoples ability to make a living and feed themselves - would greatly outway the effects of the virus itself.  It is not like there is a shortage of people in the world anyway.

[khunpa]

16 minutes ago, Jumbo1968 said:

What about this report from the USA, quite a few passed away here with flu ?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-31/there-s-another-virus-stalking-the-u-s-and-it-s-called-the-flu

Yes and there is also cancer, accidents etc. 
 

This virus is an add-on spreading fast and taking up lots of hospital beds.

[justin case]

the truth of a death in thailand will remain TOP SECRET to not kill $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

[Pedrogaz]

I think that what has been done so far is enough. Fear and hysteria, not science is driving behavior and belief. Prudent for a worst outcome, like having plans for quarantining large populations maybe Bangkok, places to put people who may be infected but not having symptoms yet, having enough masks and antiseptics, and having enough medical supplies. The army should be involved in the planning.

[Max69xl]

2 hours ago, RBOP said:

I believe government is not showing the true numbers in order to avoid a panic. I believe they will slowly release numbers to make the curve look smooth like China is doing. In a week it will be too late. 

You're just another paranoid poster.

Why will it be to late in a week,Mr Expert? 

[rabas]

Testing is the key to control, but Thailand's testing is horribly bottlenecked. With more than 400 cases in the queue, they release about 4 new results every 3-4 days. This means they have not yet developed or imported faster PCR testing capable of testing larger numbers. 

 

I predict tomorrow they will release 5 new results, then stop testing again. Bad news if so.

[RBOP]

3 minutes ago, rabas said:

Testing is the key to control, but Thailand's testing is horribly bottlenecked. With more than 400 cases in the queue, they release about 4 new results every 3-4 days. This means they have not yet developed or imported faster PCR testing capable of testing larger numbers. 

 

I predict tomorrow they will release 5 new results, then stop testing again. Bad news if so.

Yes I agree with you. That's the pattern I also see and its been exponential growth since January 25. Maybe they will release new numbers in a day or 2.  

[khunpa]

16 minutes ago, Max69xl said:

You're just another paranoid poster.

Why will it be to late in a week,Mr Expert? 

I am sure there was no worries in Wuhan at the time, when they had it under control.

[RBOP]

21 minutes ago, Max69xl said:

You're just another paranoid poster.

Why will it be to late in a week,Mr Expert? 

because its currently growing exponentially. 

[rabas]

2 minutes ago, RBOP said:

Yes I agree with you. That's the pattern I also see and its been exponential growth since January 25. Maybe they will release new numbers in a day or 2.  

Excellent work.

 

They only do a few at a time because are using full genome sequencing, which takes time and big machines. They must have about 5 machines available. I wonder why there is a delay getting the faster PCR testing.

[partington]

56 minutes ago, rabas said:

Excellent work.

 

They only do a few at a time because are using full genome sequencing, which takes time and big machines. They must have about 5 machines available. I wonder why there is a delay getting the faster PCR testing.

 

Do you actually know this to be true?

 

Complete genome sequencing would be a literally insane way to test, when RT-PCR primer sequences specifically to identify the Wuhan Corona virus have been published, it takes a couple of days to make enough primers for tens of thousands of tests, and every lab that could do genome sequencing must by very definition have a PCR machine already on site, since all genomic sequencing is PCR based. Admittedly not all labs have real time PCR machines, but again it's hard to imagine a lab capable of whole genome RNA virus sequencing that doesn't have one of these.

 

Moreover large portions of the Wuhan viral genome (70-80%) are identical to other corona viruses, so most of any complete genome sequence obtained would be of little value for identification purposes, like reading every page of a book to find a misprint that you know is in chapter 19.

 

Edit: I suppose they could be waiting to buy commercial test kits rather than make their own test from published sequence information. If so then this accounts for the delay , as these kits are in huge demand and in short supply. In this case maybe they would try a crazily time consuming method.

Edited February 3, 2020 by partington

[ParkerN]

4 hours ago, sirineou said:

I did not participate in this survey as I find the binary choice inadequate.

This survey is simply red meat to get the dogs barking.

When is anyone doing enough in these situations? It is a complex situation containing many components , not all of which are medical , (medical, economic, political) . I am  sure they are doing the best they can balancing all of the above concerns. 

I'm sure you're right. Everything is just ticketyboo. The Thai government is doing a splendid job. All is well.

 

*snigger*

[rabas]

1 hour ago, partington said:

Do you actually know this to be true?

 

Complete genome sequencing would be a literally insane way to test, when RT-PCR primer sequences specifically to identify the Wuhan Corona virus have been published,

Yes. The Thai released an announcement when they first started saying they would  begin testing using genome sequencing. That's what everyone does if there is no standard testing available. They also said one extra day was consumed for 2 experts to review the sequence (in a computer) to match it (manually). The  announcement was in one of TallJohninBKK's links last week.

 

As far as I understand, downloading the PCR primer codes is easy but you need to synthesize physical DNA matching the primer on structures, etc, which takes a lab set up to do that. Then you would need to manufacture test kits. The other way is to buy test kits from outside.  I assume the Thai can do this but not sure why they have not done one of the two yet.

Edited February 3, 2020 by rabas

[rabas]

1 hour ago, partington said:

Admittedly not all labs have real time PCR machines, but again it's hard to imagine a lab capable of whole genome RNA virus sequencing that doesn't have one of these.

I see you addressed some points in my post in your earlier post. From what I understand, much of Thailand's genome and sequencing effort is addressed to agricultural research, but I don't know any details.

[khunpa]

2 hours ago, RBOP said:

Yes I agree with you. That's the pattern I also see and its been exponential growth since January 25. Maybe they will release new numbers in a day or 2.  

Her overview of the amount of people "under investigation". 

Imagine the amount of human ressources and hospital beds required in 3 months from now to handle this.

 

 

 

[sirineou]

2 minutes ago, ParkerN said:

I'm sure you're right. Everything is just ticketyboo. The Thai government is doing a splendid job. All is well.

 

*snigger*

I don't know if they are doing a "splendid job" I am not an expert, are you? The experts seem to think that they are doing a pretty good job, I remember seeing a  virus reaction chart by country posted in this forum by Yinn and Thailand was on the top of the list. 

  My only point is that they are not lazy, they don't just sit there and say,"ohh we will do something tomorrow"  or stupid.

 They are looking at a rapidly evolving situation and are trying to maintain a balance between reacting and overreacting, just like every other country. Put yourself in their situation. what do you do? If you are a good manager I would hope you take all variables into consideration.  

[Haecksler]

6 minutes ago, khunpa said:

Her overview of the amount of people "under investigation". 

Imagine the amount of human ressources and hospital beds required in 3 months from now to handle this.

 

 

 

Upsi!! There we go

IMO not sufficient action to fight the virus.

Why? To contain a virus you have to identify and isolate the ones being infected. That should explain it. Correct me if I am wrong.

Edited February 3, 2020 by Haecksler
typo

[DrTuner]

2 minutes ago, Haecksler said:

Upsi!! There we go

IMO not sufficient action to fight the virus.

Why? To combine a virus you have to identify and isolate the ones being infected. That should explain it. Correct me if I am wrong.

I guess you meant combat the virus? Yes, fast diagnostics are a necessity. Thais have none of it.