Why Is The Baht Not Dropping

[Baerboxer]

17 hours ago, tgw said:

why would you think that ???

the mind boggles

 

Then you obviously know much more than the Forex experts who are pricing an increase for the GBP for later this year.

[tgw]

31 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Then you obviously know much more than the Forex experts who are pricing an increase for the GBP for later this year.

the operative word being "later"...

and I am a forex expert too

[Tony125]

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[Mitkof Island]

18 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

Thai Govt and China Govt have been pushing up the Baht through many different policies for years - the result is a bloated currency that is massively over valued since 2014 - but that pays for the large military purchases and infrastructure projects that China provides.  Eventually it will fall - and eventually the recession will happen - and when it falls it will fall a lot.

 

Yes do not be shocked to see 60 baht to the USD when the economy crashes later this year.

[saengd]

13 minutes ago, Mitkof Island said:

Yes do not be shocked to see 60 baht to the USD when the economy crashes later this year.

Can we quote you later this year, just for fun!

[Pib]

7 minutes ago, Mitkof Island said:

Yes do not be shocked to see 60 baht to the USD when the economy crashes later this year.

No one needs to worry (or hope) the rate is going to 60 baht/USD or even 40 baht/USD...or probably even 35 baht/USD later this year as going to 60 or 40 would would be a HUGE change....would require a BIG financial/world event.   Now some people can wish and dream for a big exchange rate increase but it's going to be a unfulfilled wish...just a wet dream.

[TechnikaIII]

18 hours ago, ThaiPauly said:

I really thought that Sterling would bounce after Brexit, it did a bit in the days after the election but now, nothing really still hovering around 40

I didn't really expect it to "bounce", as such. But I am confident that it will steadily climb. 

[saengd]

18 hours ago, ThaiPauly said:

I really thought that Sterling would bounce after Brexit, it did a bit in the days after the election but now, nothing really still hovering around 40

Dead cat bounce, nothing more.

[AussieBob18]

34 minutes ago, Mitkof Island said:

Yes do not be shocked to see 60 baht to the USD when the economy crashes later this year.

Maybe this year, but certainly within 3.  The portends are looking more and more likely this year, but they are working hard to deceive and coverup how bad the economy really is.   All of the Thai increases and GDP over last 5 years are because the Thai Govt has embarked upon a massive project building program.  The GDP has risen but has added very little to the well-being of individuals and most businesses (just to the Chinese and wealtky).  The fact is that the projects have diverted capital from wealth-generating activities and this will eventually bite.  Their high trade surplus grants them the luxury of this practice, but as the baht hits more and more at their surplus and tourism, it is just a matter of time before the inevitable will occur - economists call it an 'adjustment'.  The Thai economy is not really that good - the true fundamentals are not good - and it is just a matter time until the adjustment.

[ubonjoe]

A baiting post and one containing a profanity have been removed.

[SiSePuede419]

19 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

Eventually it will fall - and eventually the recession will happen - and when it falls it will fall a lot.

Nah.

 

It will take a global recession to cause a recession here.  They're always building infrastructure, pumping up the economy.  Unlike America, where the Tories have abandoned infrastructure projects in favor of tax giveaways to the wealthiest.

 

The wealthy in Thailand pay no taxes already, nothing to cut. ????

 

Besides, emerging economies like Thailand are always the first to pull up after a recession.

 

Economies that are dependent upon one source of income, like Finland and Russia will be hardest hit by a global recession. 

 

If people don't have jobs, they tend not to go anywhere. 

 

No need to fill up the tank with petrol if you're staying home and starving with your family. 

 

[saengd]

40 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

Maybe this year, but certainly within 3.  The portends are looking more and more likely this year, but they are working hard to deceive and coverup how bad the economy really is.   All of the Thai increases and GDP over last 5 years are because the Thai Govt has embarked upon a massive project building program.  The GDP has risen but has added very little to the well-being of individuals and most businesses (just to the Chinese and wealtky).  The fact is that the projects have diverted capital from wealth-generating activities and this will eventually bite.  Their high trade surplus grants them the luxury of this practice, but as the baht hits more and more at their surplus and tourism, it is just a matter of time before the inevitable will occur - economists call it an 'adjustment'.  The Thai economy is not really that good - the true fundamentals are not good - and it is just a matter time until the adjustment.

Still pushing the same old mantra eh Bob, you should get yourself a sandwich board made up and parade up and down Silom, "the end is nigh, repent you sinners, exchange your Baht for Dollars today".

[AussieBob18]

12 minutes ago, SiSePuede419 said:

Nah.

It will take a global recession to cause a recession here.  They're always building infrastructure, pumping up the economy.  Unlike America, where the Tories have abandoned infrastructure projects in favor of tax giveaways to the wealthiest.

The wealthy in Thailand pay no taxes already, nothing to cut. ????

Besides, emerging economies like Thailand are always the first to pull up after a recession.

Economies that are dependent upon one source of income, like Finland and Russia will be hardest hit by a global recession. 

If people don't have jobs, they tend not to go anywhere. 

No need to fill up the tank with petrol if you're staying home and starving with your family. 

Disagree - but a global recession would definitely be a trigger of course.

Time will tell.

[AussieBob18]

10 minutes ago, saengd said:

Still pushing the same old mantra eh Bob, you should get yourself a sandwich board made up and parade up and down Silom, "the end is nigh, repent you sinners, exchange your Baht for Dollars today".

Omne of many proud realists saeng - been saying the recession is coming since about July/August last year when we were visiting - and like I said to Sise - time will tell.  3 years max. 

[Percy P]

21 hours ago, SteveK said:

Give it a few more months, it has to drop eventually. Maybe once the elite have finished buying all their foreign currency denominated assets and investments.

Thai Foreign Currency Account is preventing the Baht from dropping in value.

[saengd]

28 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

Omne of many proud realists saeng - been saying the recession is coming since about July/August last year when we were visiting - and like I said to Sise - time will tell.  3 years max. 

So let me see.....the world is on the leading edge of a global pandemic which will categorically hurt the global economy to a serious degree, plus, we have a raving loony heading for four more years in office, and, markets are at an all time high, and, Central Banks globally are out of defensive ammunition. Then along comes you and predicts Thailand will enter a recession at some point in the next three years. I'd say there is probably zero risk in making that bet, not that the cause will be of Thailand own making and not that Thailand will be alone in the recession, almost every economy in the Western world will be in one!

 

EDIT TO ADD: I forgot about the worst drought Thailand has seen in 40 years, I'm in awe of your crystal ball gazing abilities Bob! https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-07/worst-thai-drought-in-40-years-is-hammering-sugar-production?srnd=premium-asia

Edited February 7, 2020 by saengd

[saengd]

Just now, Percy P said:

Thai Foreign Currency Account is preventing the Baht from dropping in value.

Foreign Currency Reserves....which are a bi-product of a current account and trade surplus.

[Percy P]

21 hours ago, SteveK said:

Give it a few more months, it has to drop eventually. Maybe once the elite have finished buying all their foreign currency denominated assets and investments.

Wishful thinking.

[Percy P]

32 minutes ago, saengd said:

Still pushing the same old mantra eh Bob, you should get yourself a sandwich board made up and parade up and down Silom, "the end is nigh, repent you sinners, exchange your Baht for Dollars today".

Thai fundamentals are in good shape. Thai Foreign currency Reserve Account  is greater then the countrys GDP.  Industry will pick up . The Baht will not depreciate 

[saengd]

1 minute ago, Percy P said:

Thai fundamentals are in good shape. Thai Foreign currency Reserve Account  is greater then the countrys GDP.  Industry will pick up . The Baht will not depreciate 

Thailand GDP is USD 502 billion, Foreign Currency Reserves are USD 215 billion.

[Percy P]

22 minutes ago, saengd said:

Foreign Currency Reserves....which are a bi-product of a current account and trade surplus.

Which is greater then the GDP

[Percy P]

1 minute ago, saengd said:

Thailand GDP is USD 502 billion, Foreign Currency Reserves are USD 215 billion.

What year are you referring to.

[Elzear]

On 2/6/2020 at 7:51 AM, ubonjoe said:

You have to do your 90 day report at the office where you applied for your extension unless you formally change your address to another office.

You can do the reports online or by mail with no need to be at your home to do them that way.

What extension if it is my first 90 Day report ? 

[saengd]

15 minutes ago, Percy P said:

What year are you referring to.

2019

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/foreign-exchange-reserves

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/gdp

[NoshowJones]

20 hours ago, ThaiPauly said:

I really thought that Sterling would bounce after Brexit, it did a bit in the days after the election but now, nothing really still hovering around 40

Bounce up or down?

[Chivas]

Its dropping now make no mistake.....live screenshot. Weakest for 8 months

 

 

[NoshowJones]

20 hours ago, Thian said:

Will the banks fall over from it? And what will happen to the farang who keep 800.000 in the thai bank? 

Anyone who keeps 800.000 Bt in a Thai bank will eventually end up in the Funny Farm, Oh wait! No Funny Farms in Thailand, the Loonies are all on the roads. .

[saengd]

4 minutes ago, Chivas said:

Its dropping now make no mistake.....live screenshot. Weakest for 8 months

 

 

And it looks like it's carrying across to GBP nicely.

 

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/data/currencies/gbp-pairs/GBPTHB-exchange-rate/

Edited February 7, 2020 by saengd

[Chivas]

4 minutes ago, saengd said:

And it looks like it's carrying across to GBP nicely.

 

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/data/currencies/gbp-pairs/GBPTHB-exchange-rate/

Well it will do lol even if Sterling/Dollar is flat (which it is)

[Stevemercer]

The government finally started talking the Baht down in the last quarter of 2019, which has at least stopped the currency rising.

 

The central bank is fiddling around the edges which should see the currency slide maybe 5% over the next year.

 

However, more creative and urgent solutions are needed by the government to bring the Baht back down to earth and make Thailand competitive again (which would equate to about 20% devaluation).