Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Mortality Rate

 

How to correctly calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak

 

The case fatality rate (CFR) represents the proportion of cases who eventually die from a disease.

 

Once an epidemic has ended, it is calculated with the formula: deaths / cases.

 

But while an epidemic is still ongoing, as it is the case with the current novel coronavirus outbreak, this formula is, at the very least, "naïve" and can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients."

 

Read more: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

 

Mortality has little relevance with an illness of this kind. The defining characteristic is case severity. This illness is demonstrating a need for advanced intervention including respiratory assistance/therapy, ICU care,  and isolation. At this time 20-25% of cases necessitate ICU care.  This takes away resources from other patients and can cause their continued  hospitalization  or death.  This is the type of illness that can  bankrupt health care systems because of the costs that attach. Consider the cost of the gowns, gloves, masks etc. that must be changed with each and every patient visit. 

According to

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/asia/china-coronavirus-contain.html

Fatality rate? It's hard to know ... probably less than 3%.

 

More from the same article:

Among 17,000 people who were infected in China, 82 percent had mild infections, 15 percent had severe symptoms and 3 percent were classified as critical ...

 

And if those 15 + 3 = 18% were mostly elderly and infirm, as reports are, then a healthy individual is likely going to recover without much fuss from a bout of coronavirus. It's no more or less frightening than the flu of which it's a new variant.

Mortality rate and Case fatality rate are two different things. They are not interchangeable.

Just heard on the BBC that there are now over 1,000 deaths attributed to the Wuhan Coronavirus in China.  China has now removed several senior officials over the handling of the outbreak.  Not looking good, as they say 103 died on Monday alone in the Hubei province.  The national death toll is now 1,016 with 2,097 new cases on Monday alone.  They indicate a 3% mortality rate as of now.

20 hours ago, Why Me said:

According to

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/asia/china-coronavirus-contain.html

Fatality rate? It's hard to know ... probably less than 3%.

 

More from the same article:

Among 17,000 people who were infected in China, 82 percent had mild infections, 15 percent had severe symptoms and 3 percent were classified as critical ...

 

And if those 15 + 3 = 18% were mostly elderly and infirm, as reports are, then a healthy individual is likely going to recover without much fuss from a bout of coronavirus. It's no more or less frightening than the flu of which it's a new variant.

I feel so happy that only old people over 60 and weak people die.

Guess how old I am? 

 

If the virus ever seriously spreads in Thailand this forum will become very quiet. 

36 minutes ago, uhuh said:

I feel so happy that only old people over 60 and weak people die.

Guess how old I am? 

 

If the virus ever seriously spreads in Thailand this forum will become very quiet. 

Already the number of new infections reported per day is dropping in China so they seem to be getting it under control. And Thailand has a whopping 33 cases in a country of 60 million.

 

The whole thing looks like it will be over by the end of the month.

On 2/12/2020 at 2:34 AM, Why Me said:

Already the number of new infections reported per day is dropping in China 

yeah...

Good joke

On 2/12/2020 at 1:53 AM, uhuh said:

I feel so happy that only old people over 60 and weak people die.

Guess how old I am? 

 

If the virus ever seriously spreads in Thailand this forum will become very quiet. 

14

Anybody younger than 30 have little to fear. Sadly most of us are at the other end of the chart.