Britain fires with both barrels - emergency rate cut and budget boost

[Henryford]

9 hours ago, sandrabbit said:

And what did labour do under Blair, get their great grandchildren to still pay for what they did ............

Exactly, PFI was the biggest "spend now pay later" scam in history. The main reason why the NHS is on it's knees now.

[ivor bigun]

11 hours ago, Kwasaki said:

Not according to Mr Grim Reaper Logosone. ????

he was reporting from his bunker ,next to his 1000 rolls of toilet paper ,and boxes of baked beanz.

[ivor bigun]

The EU will be in real trouble because of this coronavirus ,Greece went bust and they cant bail them out ,i was reading an article that says Italy is in a far worse position ,what will the EU do for them when this is all over ,Germany and France care only for themselves ,its going to be messy. 

[englishoak]

15 minutes ago, ivor bigun said:

The EU will be in real trouble because of this coronavirus ,Greece went bust and they cant bail them out ,i was reading an article that says Italy is in a far worse position ,what will the EU do for them when this is all over ,Germany and France care only for themselves ,its going to be messy. 

 

Indeed Germany has already said it is keeping PPE for its own citizens and not sending them to help Italy, interesting all of a sudden the EU is not in it all together when the SHIF time comes. Mark my words when the dust settles there are going to be A LOT of peeved off EU nations asking where were the big gun economies of Germany and France putting the EU first when they were needed ?  Heart goes out to all Europeans who are about to find out each EU nation is ultimately are on their own when the going gets tough ... Just as its always been tbh. 

 

Thank god we are out of that mess.

[Logosone]

1 hour ago, martin3 said:

At least we don,t have to live with the rules they make anymore,It may take a long time and maybe its going to hurt for a long time,But I'm sure you wouldn't want other countries making laws and rules for you?

A lot of men and women and children died to be free in both world wars.....EU maybe good for the smaller countries,But I'm glad we are out! 

 

The UK is not free or independent. 

 

UK fishermen are already pleading with their government to ensure tariff free access to EU markets.

 

Who do you think pays for UK pensions? Do you seriously think UK tax is sufficient to pay UK pensions? Every year the UK has to go cap in hand to the capital markets and beg Japan, the US and Germany to give the UK money to pay its pensioners.

 

You think the UK is free and independent? Eighty percent of your economy is services. Given the size of your debt  you're basically indentured servants.

 

And along comes a Brexit government with election bribes in the Greek style saying 'please please re-elect us, here have the family silver, have it all'....ramping up the already massively indebted UK's debt by another 125 billion"£ and telling future generations of Britons 'You and your children can pay the bill for how we live now'.

 

 

 

 

[Logosone]

2 hours ago, vinny41 said:

The only person that is stating as a fact that the UK will have to pay exactly the same same figure it paid in EU membership fees  only disguised as tariffs in return for exporting  to the EU,

Can you please provide a link to support this statement or should we assume it's FAKE NEWS and you have just made it up

PS  if the UK chooses to import nothing from the EU how many jobs will go in Germany 100,000 or 300,000

Lol, with great pleasure, vinny.

 

A UN study has just found that tariffs would cost the UK economy between 11 and 32 billion USD. 

 

"Potential losses under a “no-deal” Brexit from tariffs are estimated at between $11.4 billion and $16 billion of current exports – and the new study says NTMs would double those losses.

The study also projects that even if a “standard” free trade agreement were to be signed by the parties, the UK’s exports could still drop by nine per cent."

 

https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/02/1058131

 

As you may recall the UK paid the EU around 9 billion £ net in membership fees. So turns out the UK could actually end up paying MORE to Europe oustide the EU than within.

 

Quelle Surprise.

[vinny41]

29 minutes ago, Logosone said:

 

The UK is not free or independent. 

 

UK fishermen are already pleading with their government to ensure tariff free access to EU markets.

 

Who do you think pays for UK pensions? Do you seriously think UK tax is sufficient to pay UK pensions? Every year the UK has to go cap in hand to the capital markets and beg Japan, the US and Germany to give the UK money to pay its pensioners.

 

You think the UK is free and independent? Eighty percent of your economy is services. Given the size of your debt  you're basically indentured servants.

 

And along comes a Brexit government with election bribes in the Greek style saying 'please please re-elect us, here have the family silver, have it all'....ramping up the already massively indebted UK's debt by another 125 billion"£ and telling future generations of Britons 'You and your children can pay the bill for how we live now'.

 

 

 

 

you keep stating Who do you think pays for UK pensions? Do you seriously think UK tax is sufficient to pay UK pensions? Every year the UK has to go cap in hand to the capital markets and beg Japan, the US and Germany to give the UK money to pay its pensioners.

And you never provide a link to support your claim

[Logosone]

59 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

you keep stating Who do you think pays for UK pensions? Do you seriously think UK tax is sufficient to pay UK pensions? Every year the UK has to go cap in hand to the capital markets and beg Japan, the US and Germany to give the UK money to pay its pensioners.

And you never provide a link to support your claim

"At the end of 2015, total accrued-to-date gross pension liabilities of UK pension providers in respect of employment-related (workplace) pensions and State Pensions were estimated at £7.6 trillion, up from £6.6 trillion at the end of 2010 (not adjusted for inflation). 

 

The 2015 total included £5.3 trillion of pension entitlements (279% of gross domestic product (GDP)) that were the responsibility of central and local government)"

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/articles/pensionsinthenationalaccountsafullerpictureoftheuksfundedandunfundedpensionobligations/2010to2015

 

How to you propose, vinny, to pay £5.3 trillion of pension entitlements, being 279% of GDP of the UK?

 

By way of framework, national insurance receipts are 136 billion pounds each year.

 

A UK trillion, and bear in mind the pension entitlements in the UK in 2015 were 5.3 trillion GBP, means 1,000,000,000,000,000,000

 

A UK billions is 1,000,000,000,000.

 

Okay, now you should be well on your way to understand why UK debt amounted to £1.78 trillion, or 86.58% of total GDP, with the annual cost of servicing (paying the interest) the public debt amounted to around £48 billion.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_national_debt

 

So when the UK issues UK government bonds what it is doing is financing the UK pension system, among other social handouts the UK electorate has gotten used to.

 

The ironic thing is that the UK government used to issue bonds to finance wars. Now it issues them to finance its own old age pensioners. So you could argue the UK is now at war with itself.

Edited March 12, 2020 by Logosone

[Rookiescot]

15 hours ago, evadgib said:

This Corona lark will be gone by June & ???????? thankfully will continue as planned.

Can you enlighten us all as to what the plan actually is?

[samran]

6 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

Can you enlighten us all as to what the plan actually is?

Didn’t you see his answer! He said there would be a budget in October...

 

Theres the plan. Kicking the can down the road! 

[Laughing Gravy]

4 hours ago, englishoak said:

Budget gets a thumbs up from me, very ambitious and positive, thats what was needed. 

Agree totally but our resident doom and gloom posters just are not happy unless everyone is running for the hills with no food on the shelves and medicine is scarce with anarchy on the streets.

 

Meanwhile in the real world everyone is saying one of the best budgets for a generation. Not an Alex Salmond generation but an actual generation.

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/budget-2020-sunaks-30bn-spree-is-biggest-giveaway-since-1992-blhl2jqzk

Edited March 12, 2020 by Laughing Gravy

[evadgib]

2 hours ago, Logosone said:

 

The UK is not free or independent. 

 

UK fishermen are already pleading with their government to ensure tariff free access to EU markets.

 

Who do you think pays for UK pensions? Do you seriously think UK tax is sufficient to pay UK pensions? Every year the UK has to go cap in hand to the capital markets and beg Japan, the US and Germany to give the UK money to pay its pensioners.

 

You think the UK is free and independent? Eighty percent of your economy is services. Given the size of your debt  you're basically indentured servants.

 

And along comes a Brexit government with election bribes in the Greek style saying 'please please re-elect us, here have the family silver, have it all'....ramping up the already massively indebted UK's debt by another 125 billion"£ and telling future generations of Britons 'You and your children can pay the bill for how we live now'.

- yet!

- Surely that's "we/our"?

- It worked, &

- ???????? taxpayers were still paying for WW2 until Dec 2006 ????

HTH 

 

Edited March 12, 2020 by evadgib

[Baerboxer]

18 hours ago, Logosone said:

Excellent work by Mark Carney and superb presentation.

 

But cheaper lending alone will not revive the English patient.

 

The UK has the largest oil sector in the EU, which employs 300,000 people and accounts for some 20% of corporation tax.

 

With oil prices low in the long term the UK economy will take hit here.

 

Due to Brexit 1.7 trillion GBP have left the City already, more will follow. With passporting and equivalence in doubt and at the mercy of EU regulators and courts many UK services providers will face a tough time.

 

Foreign investment in the UK has fallen dramatically since Brexit was voted for.

 

Big name firms from Honda to Siemens to JP Morgan have made clear they will set up elsewhere.

 

Even without coronavirus the UK was in dire shape, now, with the oil crisis the UK is in a worse position still. Very tough times ahead for the British,

 

 

Meanwhile the USA, Australia, and the EU are absolutely booming with no problems whatsoever!

 

 

Edited March 12, 2020 by Baerboxer

[Logosone]

4 hours ago, englishoak said:

Budget gets a thumbs up from me, very ambitious and positive, thats what was needed. 

 

If taking on 125 billion GBP extra debt and letting the children of the UK, and their children, and their children's children pay for the way the British adults live now is positive then this budget was massively positive.

 

Worked really well for Greece.

 

To live above your means is undisciplined, thoughtless, irresponsible, and frankly selfish. Future UK generations will have to pay for this Brexit government's budget of handouts and re-election bribes.

 

Of course there is nothing positive about this budget, which by its own admission is a budget to deal with crisis. What is the British response to crisis? Borrow more and more and more and more.

 

Man are you guys headed for a face down fall in the mud. The bill always comes.

 

Just ask Greece what happened when foreign creditors refused to pay after Greece maxed out its credit card. 

Edited March 12, 2020 by Logosone

[JonnyF]

14 hours ago, samran said:

Sing it with me lads:

 

’it’s gold, it’s round, one dollar to the pound, Engerland, Engerland...’

Meanwhile you Bogans can only dream of your Aussie dollar reaching parity with the USD ????

 

[GeorgeCross]

gonna need a bigger gun judging by the market response

 

 

[Logosone]

Yes, the performance of the British Pound has been spectacular:

 

 

[samran]

23 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

Meanwhile you Bogans can only dream of your Aussie dollar reaching parity with the USD ????

 

Why do you think I care about the Aussie dollar? I earn US dollars.

 

I also don’t tie up my sense of identity with what a currency happens to be doing...but good try anyway. 
 

A friendly tip for next time so you can further refine your insult skills, your use of ‘bogan’ was just darn awkward. 

Edited March 12, 2020 by samran

[Basil B]

Britain fires with both barrels - But could not hit a barn door at 50 paces...

[vinny41]

2 hours ago, Logosone said:

"At the end of 2015, total accrued-to-date gross pension liabilities of UK pension providers in respect of employment-related (workplace) pensions and State Pensions were estimated at £7.6 trillion, up from £6.6 trillion at the end of 2010 (not adjusted for inflation). 

 

The 2015 total included £5.3 trillion of pension entitlements (279% of gross domestic product (GDP)) that were the responsibility of central and local government)"

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/articles/pensionsinthenationalaccountsafullerpictureoftheuksfundedandunfundedpensionobligations/2010to2015

 

How to you propose, vinny, to pay £5.3 trillion of pension entitlements, being 279% of GDP of the UK?

 

By way of framework, national insurance receipts are 136 billion pounds each year.

 

A UK trillion, and bear in mind the pension entitlements in the UK in 2015 were 5.3 trillion GBP, means 1,000,000,000,000,000,000

 

A UK billions is 1,000,000,000,000.

 

Okay, now you should be well on your way to understand why UK debt amounted to £1.78 trillion, or 86.58% of total GDP, with the annual cost of servicing (paying the interest) the public debt amounted to around £48 billion.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_national_debt

 

So when the UK issues UK government bonds what it is doing is financing the UK pension system, among other social handouts the UK electorate has gotten used to.

 

The ironic thing is that the UK government used to issue bonds to finance wars. Now it issues them to finance its own old age pensioners. So you could argue the UK is now at war with itself.

So when you posted Every year the UK has to go cap in hand to the capital markets and beg Japan, the US and Germany to give the UK money to pay its pensioners. that was total bullocks

The state pension is paid for by national insurance contributions, which come from the wages of people working today. Effectively, each working generation pays for the older generation above them. 

 

[samran]

16 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

So when you posted Every year the UK has to go cap in hand to the capital markets and beg Japan, the US and Germany to give the UK money to pay its pensioners. that was total bullocks

The state pension is paid for by national insurance contributions, which come from the wages of people working today. Effectively, each working generation pays for the older generation above them. 

 

Look up ‘demographic time bomb’ and ‘baby boomer bulge’ in the order, the work your way backwards.

 

Come back and let us know what you find out...

[vinny41]

12 minutes ago, samran said:

Look up ‘demographic time bomb’ and ‘baby boomer bulge’ in the order, the work your way backwards.

 

Come back and let us know what you find out...

In our latest forecast, we estimate outturn spending on state pensions in 2017-18 to total £93.8 billion in Great Britain. We forecast spending to increase to £96.6 billion in 2018-19, with 12.7 million recipients paid an average of £7,610 each. That would represent around 12 per cent of total public spending, and 4.6 per cent of national income.

https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/tax-by-tax-spend-by-spend/welfare-spending-state-pension/

[Logosone]

1 hour ago, Laughing Gravy said:

Meanwhile in the real world everyone is saying one of the best budgets for a generation. 

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/budget-2020-sunaks-30bn-spree-is-biggest-giveaway-since-1992-blhl2jqzk

 

Nothing could be further from the truth;

 

"A surge in public spending risks exposing the UK economy to a shock rise in borrowing costs, according to the government's spending watchdog.

Abandoning long-term goals to balance the books could have consequences, the Office for Budget Responsibility said.

The OBR said higher borrowing and debt would leave Britain "vulnerable" to changing investor sentiment."

 

The warning came as the chancellor unveiled the biggest Budget giveaway since 1992.

 

But higher spending over the long-term would be likely to lead to higher borrowing, which could prompt a rise in the cost of that borrowing.

Public borrowing is already forecast to climb to a six-year high by 2022 without taking into account these additional spending measures.

 

 

Budget gamble?

 

However, the OBR said the government's decision to move away from trying to reduce Britain's debt in relation to the size of the economy, could store up problems for the future.

The last government said it aimed to bring down public sector net debt, but it now is projected to remain steady at around 75% of GDP over the next five years.

 

Sir Charlie Bean, a member of the OBR's budget responsibility committee, added: "Clearly the more debt you build up, the more exposed you are if things go wrong.

"And there's a good general principle that you want to have the debt-to-GDP ratio declining in good times, to build up the space for responding precisely to the events like the coronavirus.

"If you only have the ambition to keep debt constant as a proportion of GDP, every time you get a bad shock, you just ratchet that up again."

 

The spending in this Budget is being largely paid for with a big increase in government borrowing.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51836555

 

So pretty much exactly what I've been saying. There are sane voices in the UK even, however, they're drowned up by the Rule-Britannia screaming  Brexiters who'd rather let future generations pay for how they live now.

 

The UK fired with both barrels allright.....at the future of its own children. 

 

Responsible fiscal management has a different look.

 

[evadgib]

16 minutes ago, Logosone said:

The UK fired with both barrels allright.....at the future of its own children. 

We (that's you too, Grouse) were still paying for WW2 until 2006 so what's new?

[Logosone]

37 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

So when you posted Every year the UK has to go cap in hand to the capital markets and beg Japan, the US and Germany to give the UK money to pay its pensioners. that was total bullocks

 

No, I'm afraid not.

 

"The government is now set to borrow £54.8bn in the coming financial year to plug the gap between the money it spends on public services and the tax revenues it collects. This is much higher than the £40.2bn that was forecast."

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51836555

 

If you think National Insurance contributions or taxes are enough to finance UK pensions you've not been keeping up with developments. The UK has to borrow every year in the capital market and issue bonds to creditors to finance the money it hands out.

 

39 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

The state pension is paid for by national insurance contributions, which come from the wages of people working today. Effectively, each working generation pays for the older generation above them. 

 

 

“Today’s population has built up £7.6trn in pension promises but has only set aside about a third of that amount to pay for them,” Webb said. “The rest will have to be financed by tomorrow’s workers. 

 

https://www.ipe.com/uk-pension-liabilities-grew-by-1trn-in-five-years/10023554.article

[dunroaming]

16 hours ago, sandrabbit said:

Honda are cutting back on carbon based internal combustion automotive production and are making Japan their electrical production centre looking after Japanese workers, don't quote stuff like this which has nothing to do with Brexit but a huge re alignment of their business. Same with Ford at Bridgend, the workers knew the contracts for the manufacture of engines was coming to an end and new contracts might have come about if the switch to electrical propulsion hadn't occurred so fast. 

It is true that all the car manufacturers are in transition from petrol/diesel to electric and some hybrids.  It is true that that involves restructuring but the cars still need to be assembled and apart from the drive system they remain basically the same.   Car manufacturing is global and cars are built in many different countries.  The UK has been at the forefront of the automobile industry and Japan recognised that and saw Britain as a foothold in Europe.  BMW did say that they intended to build the electric Mini in the UK but have now said that they have to see what trade deal is agreed with the EU.. Time will tell but at the moment everything is in the air and will remain so until Britain agrees that trade deal.

 

As sure as eggs is eggs the government will blame the effects of the Corona Virus  for many of the upcoming problems with the economy.

[Logosone]

18 minutes ago, evadgib said:

We were still paying for WW2 until 2006 so what's new?

So when are you paying the debts for WWI? The UK hasn't even repaid the debts for WWI.

 

"And while the UK dutifully pays off its World War II debts, those from World War I remain resolutely unpaid. And are by no means trifling. In 1934, Britain owed the US $4.4bn of World War I debt (about £866m at 1934 exchange rates). Adjusted by the Retail Price Index, a typical measure of inflation, £866m would equate to £40bn now, and if adjusted by the growth of GDP, to about £225bn.

"We just sort of gave up around 1932 when the interwar economy was in turmoil, currencies were collapsing," says Prof Harrison."

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/magazine/4757181.stm

 

How emergency war debts equate to an annual pension, social benefits, and NHS spending bonanza only you will know. You have to defend yourself. You don't have to give free handouts. Or maybe you do by now. Maybe if you don't the have-nots will rampage down the streets and take whatever they want.

Edited March 12, 2020 by Logosone

[samran]

1 hour ago, vinny41 said:

In our latest forecast, we estimate outturn spending on state pensions in 2017-18 to total £93.8 billion in Great Britain. We forecast spending to increase to £96.6 billion in 2018-19, with 12.7 million recipients paid an average of £7,610 each. That would represent around 12 per cent of total public spending, and 4.6 per cent of national income.

https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/tax-by-tax-spend-by-spend/welfare-spending-state-pension/

Daaaa. Wrong answer.

 

Keep trying.

[evadgib]

47 minutes ago, Logosone said:

So when are you paying the debts for WWI? The UK hasn't even repaid the debts for WWI.

 

"And while the UK dutifully pays off its World War II debts, those from World War I remain resolutely unpaid. And are by no means trifling. In 1934, Britain owed the US $4.4bn of World War I debt (about £866m at 1934 exchange rates). Adjusted by the Retail Price Index, a typical measure of inflation, £866m would equate to £40bn now, and if adjusted by the growth of GDP, to about £225bn.

"We just sort of gave up around 1932 when the interwar economy was in turmoil, currencies were collapsing," says Prof Harrison."

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/magazine/4757181.stm

 

How emergency war debts equate to an annual pension, social benefits, and NHS spending bonanza only you will know. You have to defend yourself. You don't have to give free handouts. Or maybe you do by now. Maybe if you don't the have-nots will rampage down the streets and take whatever they want.

All of which knocks your 'future generations' revelation(!) into a cocked hat.

[Logosone]

41 minutes ago, evadgib said:

All of which knocks your 'future generations' revelation(!) into a cocked hat.

No. You see unlike the US, which after the 1930s just forgave the UK its debt the creditors of the UK currently have no reason to be so lenient. 

 

Yes, the UK could simply refuse to pay back its debts, but nobody would then buy a UK government bond ever again.

 

And if you think 225 bn£ is a big sum, try  £1.78 trillion for size, which is the current UK government debt or thereabouts.

 

Now, just servicing this massive debt costs the UK 48 billion£ every year. Money the UK can't spend on its children, education or anything else sensible.

 

And what about the Greece scenario? What if the creditors of the UK just stop financing the mountain of debt because they think it's too large? It happens. Yes, the UK still has some room now, but for how long? The direction the UK keeps going is inexorably unilateral, only towards increasing its debt.

Edited March 12, 2020 by Logosone