This is a screaming buy...what funds/shares are you buying?

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

3 hours ago, BillStrangeOgre said:

could be over as a pandemic by the summer.

 

I think that's going to prove to be overly optimistic.

 

[alex8912]

18 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

Wynn.

Down from 150 to 50.

Around 40 or below would be fantastic.

They are not cheap charlie hotels and most who gamble at their casinos have money.  Gamblers are never going away.

Bad choice. The newest casino in Boston had to be renamed because of Wynns reputation didn’t you know that?  Before Corona the casino started to fail and it’s not even a year old. No one was going after the big sumner opening. Now it closed and others due to the virus. Gambling and gamblers are decreasing.  

[alex8912]

16 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

I think that's going to prove to be overly optimistic.

 

Well you are quite a bit hyper active regarding the virus so pretty much predictable. What’s your estimate ? It’s over in 2030?

[chingmai331]

Aren't Wynn's casinos 98% dependent on chinese gamblers?  If china goes bust, a long shot, Macau would wither up.  

I could see the wuhan virus giving china a good, short haircut.

[bkk6060]

32 minutes ago, alex8912 said:

Bad choice. The newest casino in Boston had to be renamed because of Wynns reputation didn’t you know that?  Before Corona the casino started to fail and it’s not even a year old. No one was going after the big sumner opening. Now it closed and others due to the virus. Gambling and gamblers are decreasing.  

Well, I see you have no choice on this thread but to question others.

And that was not my point.

Gamblers long term are not going any place.

In fact, they will want get some pent up stress relief.

I do not buy for tomorrow.  That is trading not investing.

Down to 43 now.

Come back in a few years and we can talk.

Edited March 19, 2020 by bkk6060

[martijn12345]

Interesting thread if there was some real advise. No idea obviously if we are anywhere near a bottom, but don't think we have to wait 2 quarters to get a official ' we are in a recession  note' I think way sooner than that, this will be priced in into the markets. There are so many companies that will be largely unaffected by the virus and that could possibly offset some of the lost revenue on the expense side with the lower energy prices. (if you don't mind the dirty business) Philip Morris for example. Smokers will smoke and while its in a long term decline, its still highly profitable and I doubt Corona will really change anything about it.

 

Due to a perfect storm of Corona and some political OPEC stuff, oil has been hit HARD. But for the foreseeable next few decades, we will still need the stuff and while I have again no idea if the bottom is in. If you are OK to be patient a few years and collect the dividends, I am pretty sure BP/Exon/Chevron/Shell are a good buy.

 

Another company I keep an eye on is Carnival Cruises. Who the heck would wanna go on a cruise any time soon right? Right! So the stock has taken major hits. But at some point all of this will pass and people will get on a cruise again, with western demographics ageing and Asians just starting to discover this kind of holiday. I believe some day in the near future you can buy one of the best in the business at a more than fair price, again, if you have a long term horizon.

Edited March 19, 2020 by martijn12345

[1FinickyOne]

1 hour ago, alex8912 said:

What’s your estimate ? It’s over in 2030?

2030 the year or the S&P 500?

[1FinickyOne]

ps.. these days it might not be some important what you buy.. short term as the market rises and falls together, good with the bad getting beat up... but when you buy... biggest drops are followed by short but rapid moves upwards... 

[donnacha]

18 hours ago, Lacessit said:

None. IMO the virus has another 2-3 months to run. Traders may make a lot on volatility, but I'm sticking with cash.

Regardless of how long the virus is around, the market is currently reacting on a worst case basis. As a clearer picture emerges, it is highly unlikely that reality will turn out to match the worst case fears. The picture will change quite rapidly and the markets will adjust to match that. This is a typical time for inexperienced investors to lose their shirts, and for experienced investors to pick up sure-fire bargains. The Warren Buffets of this world live for these opportunities.

The prices for most stocks now are pretty much as low as they are going to go. I would have a high degree of confidence that the downside risk to any money invested now is dwarfed by the likely upside. At the very least, I would guess that most investments now will be showing a profit by the summer and poised for great gains as the economy recovers.

I would be wary of the airline and hotel stocks. Some may be underestimating the risk that there will be a long-term change to how consumers and businesses regard travel. The seeds of remote working and online learning, which had already been growing over the past two decades, may now be propelled into the mainstream by this crisis. Companies, compelled by current necessity, may discover they get better results overall online. Workers too may decide that, all things considered, they prefer working from home and attending online rather than real world seminars and conferences. Long distance leisure travel will certainly fall out of fashion for a while. You have to ask, do airline economics even add up if you have even a 10% drop in passengers?

The cruise industry, too, is permanently screwed: any business is in trouble if it becomes associated with a bug that kills the exact demographic who are its main customers. At times like this you always get a few morons playing devil's advocate by recommending controversial stocks but, in some cases, the underlying economics are irreversibly broken. The margins on cruises were already slim enough, with huge slices going to agents and marketing companies. The model of slowly paying off huge amounts of debt falls apart entirely if you could get hit with another health scare at any time.

Apple is currently a bargain as a ten year bet. They are positioned to dominate the post-iPhone landscape, with revenue that will far exceed what they are earning now. There are simply no other contenders with Apple's depth of experience in running app marketplaces and attracting so many developers, or the engineering and design skills necessary to launch the next generation of devices into mainstream awareness, acceptance, and use. It will not happen overnight, but we are inevitably moving towards AR wearables replacing smartphones, laptops, desktops, televisions etc. One elegant but very expensive device will become central to your life.

Shorter term, however, I am all in on Bitcoin and Ethereum, precisely because they are so volatile: they drop and rise quicker than anything else. We have seen a huge drop this month, I expect the huge rise over the next few months to outpace the stock market. Then I expect some of the economic aftereffects of this year to provoke an exodus of cash out of China and Europe, much of which will exit via crypto.

Over the past few years, the slow, cruel death of Venezuela created sustained demand for Bitcoin. I believe we are going to see a similar situation, but on a much larger scale, with the economies of China and Europe. Meanwhile, the other countries will be be madly printing money to keep their economies chugging along, and a portion of those trillions will wind up being stored in crypto too.
 
The real loser this year will be cash or cash equivalents as inflation goes into overdrive and interest rates remain at zero. At current prices, I would recommend that cash savings be converted into either Bitcoin or Ethereum, but no other coins. Some people find the volatility unnerving but, for me, it is key to its value: if I want to cash out at a profit, I just wait for the price to swing up again. With stocks, you often have to sit on them for months before you see real gains.

Buying crypto is very easy. You can also sell, within seconds, any portion of a coin for the exact market value and have the cash arrive in your bank account within an hour (European SEPA system, American banking system may be less efficient). You can also use your crypto to pay for things or as an efficient way to convert money from your home currency to other currencies.



 

Edited March 19, 2020 by donnacha

[mike787]

This is an amazing opportunity to be build wealth...I LOVE the C-19 virus. 

Buying BRK.B, AMZN, COST, VZ, CLX, AAPL, VTI, SBUX.  

 

When there is fear in the markets, be greedy; when there is greed, be fearful...

Edited March 19, 2020 by mike787

[AgMech Cowboy]

If I had any money, I'd buy SHOP.

[rwill]

CEQP. At the price right now, about $3.20, it is paying over 50% dividend yield.  Buy it now and you are locking in that yield even when the share prices go back up. DHT also with a dividend and has dropped way less than the market. ZOOM has been been going up overall in a down market, teleconferencing company . 

Edited March 19, 2020 by rwill

[dlclark97]

Am on the sidelines, total cash for now.  Down less than 5% from my high balance due to STOP LOSS orders executing early on.  Primarily I invest in DIA, SPY, QQQ, NOBL, ONEQ ETF index funds.  As things settle funds adding consumer goods ETF and ETF's with major airline holdings might be a good way to go.  I don't think recovery will be an instant overnight thing but one that will take several months or even years before the markets will regain recent highs.

[Brunolem]

From the information available from multiple sources, it appears that the pandemic could last between one and two...years!

 

The associated economic meltdown could last between five and ten...years!

 

Considering this, the Dow is likely to fall below 10,000 and the same for all other indexes worldwide.

 

Right now, we are in a deflationary spiral.

 

The central banks are going to fight by throwing torrents of money to halt deflation.

 

They will overplay their hands and create inflation, then hyperinflation.

 

From then on, the indexes will go up vertically, as they did in Zimbabwe, but unfortunately that won't mean much in terms of wealth.

 

Buy hard assets and sit tight...

 

Edited March 19, 2020 by Brunolem

[zaZa9]

Nothing .

As always . when its time to buy , my savings that have been invested in the market are in  serious decline .... so to my currency !

[RAZZELL]

In the UK:

 

If you are brave Airline, hotel and travel stocks.

 

Easyjet, IAG, Ryan Air, TUI have big upsides -  if they all survive.

 

Retail:

 

Burberry has nearly halved in value as it is massively dependent on Chinese shoppers (from memory something like 46% of profits are generated in China? Let alone when the Chinese go shopping abroad)

 

Watches of Switzerland - again nearly halved. Funnily enough there has been some research that shows people continue to spend on high-end luxury goods even in economic downturns.

 

Construction, Mining, O&G

 

KAZ - could go up to £8.

 

i3e - could go banko or rise like a phoenix.

 

Much like:

 

Kier.

 

USA

 

Tesla is gonna drop to around $250.

 

For some reason I like Lionsgate. John Wick 4 out in 2021! ????

 

RAZZ

 

 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

19 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

I think that's going to prove to be overly optimistic.

 

Quote

U.S. Virus Plan Anticipates 18-Month Pandemic and Widespread Shortages

The 100-page federal plan laid out a grim prognosis and outlined a response that would activate agencies across the government.
 

WASHINGTON — A federal government plan to combat the coronavirus warned policymakers last week that a pandemic “will last 18 months or longer” and could include “multiple waves,” resulting in widespread shortages that would strain consumers and the nation’s health care system.

 

The 100-page plan, dated Friday, the same day President Trump declared a national emergency, laid out a grim prognosis for the spread of the virus and outlined a response that would activate agencies across the government and potentially employ special presidential powers to mobilize the private sector.

 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-plan.html

 

Edited March 19, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[Brunolem]

1 minute ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-plan.html

 

Exactly my point...just a little bit above your post...

 

We are in this for the long run...now is just the very beginning...

[Logosone]

14 minutes ago, RAZZELL said:

In the UK:

 

If you are brave Airline, hotel and travel stocks.

 

Easyjet, IAG, Ryan Air, TUI have big upsides -  if they all survive.

 

Retail:

 

Burberry has nearly halved in value as it is massively dependent on Chinese shoppers (from memory something like 46% of profits are generated in China? Let alone when the Chinese go shopping abroad)

 

Watches of Switzerland - again nearly halved. Funnily enough there has been some research that shows people continue to spend on high-end luxury goods even in economic downturns.

 

Construction, Mining, O&G

 

KAZ - could go up to £8.

 

i3e - could go banko or rise like a phoenix.

 

Much like:

 

Kier.

 

USA

 

Tesla is gonna drop to around $250.

 

For some reason I like Lionsgate. John Wick 4 out in 2021! ????

 

RAZZ

 

 

 

This is the worst investment advice I have ever seen.

 

 

[RAZZELL]

26 minutes ago, Logosone said:

This is the worst investment advice I have ever seen.

 

 

Ok brains...what do you suggest? ????

 

(your previous post said "I'm buying British Airways, BP, TUI, Shell and of course Rolls Royce who make airline engines.

 

These companies will have a great future..."

 

Like all the other sheeple ETF's?

 

All the above have risks. Didn't say they didn't.

 

We can re-visit in 3 years and see eh? ????

 

RAZZ

Edited March 19, 2020 by RAZZELL

[UKresonant]

Moved some cash and bonds into equities probably a bit early into the nose dive, now just making little top ups to the most volatile equity funds that have content that I think will have no problem pulling through.

 

Yesterday started a small savings plan in Investment Trust/ETF property shares, Investment Trusts and ETF favourites where the Net Asset Value is easy to see (Yesterday's fund is 23% down compared to my last purchase but 36% down compared with the start of Feb, so a bargain. The rest of the equity and Property portfolios will just have to sit there for now. 

 

Will be giving single equities a miss, and let the Trust fund managers do the close analysis, worth the small % management charge in these circumstances I think.

 

I am surprised at the extent of the fear factor, after all the shares are a slice of the action, its just that the cake will be smaller for the next 3-6 months. to many short term views in the market.

 

I'm not concerned about the current capital values, it's just if companies can still issue dividends, hopefully just short term ripple in the 20 year graph looking back later.

 

 

 

[Time Traveller]

21 hours ago, Logosone said:

I'm buying British Airways, BP, TUI, Shell and of course Rolls Royce who make airline engines.

 

These companies will have a great future...

hahahaha....yeah real great future when all of the airlines are bankrupt. 

[alex8912]

3 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

Well, I see you have no choice on this thread but to question others.

And that was not my point.

Gamblers long term are not going any place.

In fact, they will want get some pent up stress relief.

I do not buy for tomorrow.  That is trading not investing.

Down to 43 now.

Come back in a few years and we can talk.

Great deflection. With no other casino in Western Mass and none in neighboring NH , Maine or Rhode Island and the Boston casino not doing well at all in a VERY rich market and Mr Wynn is quite the loser I’ll bet you will remember this text in “years “ lol. 43 oh please all stocks are down soo much. 

Edited March 19, 2020 by alex8912

[RAZZELL]

1 minute ago, alex8912 said:

Great deflection. With no other casino in Western Mass and none in neighboring NH , Maine or Rhode Island and the Boston casino not doing well at all in a VERY rich market and Mr Wynn is quite the loser I’ll bet you will remember this text in “years “ lol. 43 oh please all sticks are down soo much. 

Never heard of Wynne Macau? ????

 

RAZZ

 

 

[alex8912]

2 hours ago, kenk24 said:

2030 the year or the S&P 500?

Mine is this year soon. Tall guy bkk year 2030

[CygnusX1]

I’ve been steadily buying small amounts of stocks in line with Warren Buffett’s aphorism “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful”, and steadily losing thousands. Perhaps I should have instead observed the aphorism “Don’t base investment decisions on simple aphorisms”! 

 

Even bought a few Qantas, with the reasoning that they are (or were) relatively cashed up, and were probably buying oil futures to lock in current ultra low prices. I’m sure that as a flag carrier they’ll still exist as an airline, but maybe operated by the Govt for a while after declaring bankruptcy, in which I don’t think my shares would be worth anything.

[alex8912]

1 minute ago, RAZZELL said:

Never heard of Wynne Macau? ????

 

RAZZ

 

 

Ask Donald 

[jojothai]

History suggests the markets are likely to go a lot lower, so dont be fooled by the rallies. This is not a normal situation, its likely to be U shaped not V shaped.

IMHO from previous we should have a sharp rally of about 1/3 of the fall , then go back down or a bit lower. 

If we do not rally you can expect much lower.

Markets do not normally go down in straight lines. Look at 2008-2009 as what could happen.

Stronger rally in perhaps 2 months after the " sell in may" subsides.

But from history, be prepared for the worst afterwards.

As regards what stocks to buy, most well regarded forecasters have been promoting precious metals especially gold for the last year. US goes to negative interest rates, everybody throws massive amounts of money at the problem. Thats the recipe for gold to rise. Current selling for liquidity is perhaps a great buying opportunity.

Individual stocks?  Be careful, the concepts of some types of stock may well change. 

Look for technological / biomedical advances that are likely to be more in demand on the basis of what is happening.

Likely the best are the providers of services on the internet, as everybody in lock down uses them more.

Rethink your approach.

As mentioned by rwill, Zoom (ZM)in the US is one of the best performers - video conferencing.

Its actually risen in the turmoil.

China appears to be over the worse.

JD.com has held up well.

Alibaba perhaps, or Tencent has held up well.

Look at Amazon , it went up initially but fell 20%. It rose yesterday wednesday 18th.

Personally i have to do more research also on which thai stocks offer best prospects. I pulled out from the local market last year when we started to go into a bear market well before the virus.

The local market has been hammered. There are some very tempting high yields available.

Hope this helps,

Enough for now.

[RAZZELL]

14 minutes ago, Time Traveller said:

hahahaha....yeah real great future when all of the airlines are bankrupt. 

Ryanair has €4bn in the bank.

 

Don't think it will go bankrupt anytime soon.

 

RAZZ

[Mac98]

22 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

Wynn.

Down from 150 to 50.

Around 40 or below would be fantastic.

They are not cheap charlie hotels and most who gamble at their casinos have money.  Gamblers are never going away.

Good one. Airlines will be oversold. Likely to benefit in bailout, low fuel prices, pent up demand during recovery. Roku could benefit now. Virus fears could push cashless society (Visa or crypto play).