Will this health crisis turn into a full blown financial crisis?

[Cake Monster]

3 hours ago, LomSak27 said:

This is going to be ugly. Sorry, correction,  it is already ugly, you just don't know it yet.

 

 

 

There is " Ugly " , and there is " Really Ugly " , and that is the next stage of this thing.

[sirineou]

The virus might go away but the financial damage will not for a while.

I wish I was wrong, but I am afraid I am not!!

2008 we had tools to use , these tools are gone, interest rates are already as low as they can get. 

trump will pump money into the economy, where is he going to get that money? He will borrow it, wil that debt go away after the virus? will we not have to service it? 

People that lost their jobs will be brock after the virus, Will there be any demand for products?

 At this point, I am afraid the virus as dangerous as it is, is only a small part of the problem.

The only solution is quick action like in China. Lock down the country , lock down financial institutions. 

Shut the stock market down for a month!! I understand the need for companies to raise capital, but why do we need to be trading now? Is the need to raise capital more important than to stabilise the market? 

I hope I am wrong,God do I hope I am wrong!!

   

[Skeptic7]

Good chance. The fallout and cost of these extreme draconian measures around the globe could be far more costly to the world economy than any assumed benefits. More deaths could come afterwards from suicide, crime and poverty when this ends and nobody has a job or a pension and their savings/retirement accounts are wiped out and currencies decimated.  

[Isaanbiker]

It already did. All my horses are gone. 

[Thingamabob]

It's going to be very serious. Supply lines will be disrupted and millions will become unemployed all over the world. China will make further incursions into distressed businesses in Asia, Europe and the Americas. The economic effect will be far more calamitous than the pandemic itself. Personally I would have gone along with the herd immunity policy, however brutal. As it stands, though, no government will do so given the high mortality rate that would result. Be prepared for more difficult times ahead than most of us have experienced in our lifetimes.

[bkk6060]

20 minutes ago, sirineou said:

hope I am wrong,God do I hope I am wrong!!

You are.

[sirineou]

1 minute ago, bkk6060 said:

You are.

I would like nothing more.

How am I wrong? 

[Logosone]

Well you spelled 'broke' as 'brock'.

 

That's pretty wrong.

[Skeptic7]

31 minutes ago, sirineou said:

The virus might go away but the financial damage will not for a while.

I wish I was wrong, but I am afraid I am not!!

2008 we had tools to use , these tools are gone, interest rates are already as low as they can get. 

trump will pump money into the economy, where is he going to get that money? He will borrow it, wil that debt go away after the virus? will we not have to service it? 

People that lost their jobs will be brock after the virus, Will there be any demand for products?

 At this point, I am afraid the virus as dangerous as it is, is only a small part of the problem.

The only solution is quick action like in China. Lock down the country , lock down financial institutions. 

Shut the stock market down for a month!! I understand the need for companies to raise capital, but why do we need to be trading now? Is the need to raise capital more important than to stabilise the market? 

I hope I am wrong,God do I hope I am wrong!!

   

God??? hahaha.

I hope you're wrong too, but unfortunately don't think so. 

[sirineou]

2 minutes ago, Skeptic7 said:

God??? hahaha.

I hope you're wrong too, but unfortunately don't think so. 

Not Yahweh, the other one , the one who minds it's own .

But I have been wrong in the past, so who knows. certainly not me. 

[natway09]

It is certainly going to get more ugly.

UK has just said it will bail out workers to the tune of 2,500 quid a month.

Spare a thought for most of the Thai workers who will get,,,,,,,,, ZILCH 

[Scott Tracy]

It already is for me. 27% losses as of Thursday last week. Contemplating going back to work in the UK. No aviation jobs though, plenty of supermarket recruitment. Mind you, everyone who is out of work on zero hours contracts and those who won't be paid or have a job will be applying.

[connda]

On 3/20/2020 at 12:07 PM, BillStrangeOgre said:

Old adage; money doesn't grow on trees!

That is correct.  Money grows by adding zeros to a ledger account.

[scubascuba3]

29 minutes ago, Thingamabob said:

It's going to be very serious. Supply lines will be disrupted and millions will become unemployed all over the world. China will make further incursions into distressed businesses in Asia, Europe and the Americas. The economic effect will be far more calamitous than the pandemic itself. Personally I would have gone along with the herd immunity policy, however brutal. As it stands, though, no government will do so given the high mortality rate that would result. Be prepared for more difficult times ahead than most of us have experienced in our lifetimes.

China won't be the winner though, over dependence on them will be over, factories coming back to the west even if it costs more

[peterrabbit]

This will make the 1929 Great Depression look like a tea party.  ????

[sirineou]

5 minutes ago, pdtokyo said:

 

... and that 'I would like nothing more' is pretty ambiguous ...

Like saying "nothing fixes a headache better than aspirin" ... does that mean ... 

"aspirin is the best thing for headaches" or "taking nothing is better than taking aspirin"?

You may argue that "ambiguous" is different from "wrong" ... or not*. 

Sorry i did not realise this was a grammar thread 

[mike787]

Answer:  If it has not already....then can anyone tell me what they consider the current monetary state of affairs??????  The OP is suggesting it has not already turned into a financial crisis...hmm ok!!!!  Glad to know it's NOT.  Party on everyone...

Edited March 21, 2020 by mike787

[Lacessit]

It's already here. Massive job losses in the tourist industry. No caterers need for AFL matches in Australia, they are playing to empty stadiums. People out of work who can't pay their rent. Retirees are going to find the share dividends they rely on are going to be slashed, along with franking credits.

It's actually not a bad time to be an age pensioner, albeit being in the most vulnerable cohort.

[IAMHERE]

A world wide Depression, way past a recession. Probably even the end of consumerism as we've known it. Minimalism is going to be forced on most us all because of necessity. The worst is yet to come. 

[DaRoadrunner]

3 hours ago, Logosone said:

No, it is nowhere near as bad as 2008. The system came close to total collapse then. I've not seen any banks failing. Have you?

 

It is also nowhere near the 1929 scenario, when the Down Jones fell by 82% in under three years, We are very far away from those figures.

Agreed. To which I would add, the fact that China is recovering within 3 months shows us this is likely to be self limiting.

 

Quit panicking and buy the stock market dip.

[Benmart]

Again. Oh dear. If there is not a crisis, let me create one in my head. This forum seems incapable of foretelling the future, although many seem to think they can. I live in the present and not in the past or future.

[Kurtf]

Is a full fledged economic crisis in the future? Absofrigginlutely. 

[Logosone]

2 hours ago, DaRoadrunner said:

Agreed. To which I would add, the fact that China is recovering within 3 months shows us this is likely to be self limiting.

 

Quit panicking and buy the stock market dip.

Good point. China seems to be in better shape already, no new cases. The lower oil price should help China. Low Oz Dollar price also, all in China's favour, it should recover.

[Lacessit]

8 hours ago, Logosone said:

Good point. China seems to be in better shape already, no new cases. The lower oil price should help China. Low Oz Dollar price also, all in China's favour, it should recover.

AFAIK contracts for iron ore, coal and LNG coming from Australia are written in USD.

[saengd]

14 hours ago, Brunolem said:

The economic/financial crisis will fully blossom in a few weeks or months, and it's gonna be a doozy.

 

In 2008 we entered in the cyclone, then for 10 years we were in the eye, believing that all was well, and now comes the tail which is generally much worse than the head.

 

(This comparison was made by Doug Casey who, like a number of others, has been waiting for this event to unfold)

 

Most economists outside the mainstream TV/newspapers think that we are about to get a once a multi generations crisis, that could last between 5 and 10 years.

 

If you wait long enough every prediction ever made will come true, it's just like wining the lottery, every set of numbers ever picked will win one day, if you wait long enough.

[saengd]

11 hours ago, DaRoadrunner said:

Agreed. To which I would add, the fact that China is recovering within 3 months shows us this is likely to be self limiting.

 

Quit panicking and buy the stock market dip.

Exactly, the time to buy is when people are panicking the most. But the herd is slow to change direction, by the time they realize this it will be too late. 

[Brunolem]

11 hours ago, DaRoadrunner said:

Agreed. To which I would add, the fact that China is recovering within 3 months shows us this is likely to be self limiting.

 

Quit panicking and buy the stock market dip.

You don't buy the dip, you buy the bottom...and it is still very far!

 

As for China, how do you know (for a fact) it is recovering?

 

It is very difficult to know what is really going on in China, even in normal times.

 

Videos posted by mainland Chinese, in Wuhan, seem to show that everything is still very far from normal.

 

On top of that, China has an export economy...who is going to buy Chinese stuff when the global economy has come to a halt?

[saengd]

41 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

You don't buy the dip, you buy the bottom...and it is still very far!

 

As for China, how do you know (for a fact) it is recovering?

 

It is very difficult to know what is really going on in China, even in normal times.

 

Videos posted by mainland Chinese, in Wuhan, seem to show that everything is still very far from normal.

 

On top of that, China has an export economy...who is going to buy Chinese stuff when the global economy has come to a halt?

Ever the pessimist Bruno...how do you know it isn't, how do you know it's not, is your glass half empty or just completely empty?

[Brunolem]

36 minutes ago, saengd said:

Ever the pessimist Bruno...how do you know it isn't, how do you know it's not, is your glass half empty or just completely empty?

What isn't? What is "it"?

 

[saengd]

1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

What isn't? What is "it"?

 

"and it is still very far!

how do you know (for a fact) it is recovering"?