Wuhan Covid Virus - no need to be scared - yet

[Logosone]

That's true.

 

I agree, I think as regrettable as it is if a certain number of people die from Covid 19, most of them will be over 80. To ruin the lives of the young people alive today, their children and their children's children on account of this however is not a decision that will be judged reasonable by history.

[DrTuner]

11 hours ago, Logosone said:

Good morning fellow prisoners.

 

So Oxford university has done a study on how many people are infected in the UK and it could be as high as half the population already.

 

In the absence of government's ability to isolate their countries on time and the invidual's inability to self-isolate it looks like herd immunity could be the best outcome.

 

If so many people already have the disease and are immune to it, then the virus can't spread.

 

Wouldn't self-isolation then be completely the wrong thing to do?

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8148529/Coronavirus-infected-half-British-population-say-Oxford-University-experts.html

If the intervention occurs too late, there's not much effect and lockdowns are useless. Then it's just counting the bodies.

 

Try moving the intervention marker with mouse here: http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html . You'll notice moving closer to the spike when already deeply in community spread does not change the outcome much.

[Logosone]

Ohhh to think all this could have been avoided if our governments had not just watched Wuhan but taken isolation action then.

 

None of this would have happened.

 

It's so infurating.

 

 

[DrTuner]

6 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Ohhh to think all this could have been avoided if our governments had not just watched Wuhan but taken isolation action then.

 

None of this would have happened.

 

It's so infurating.

"Next time, then".

[Logosone]

Aye, there'll always be a next time.

[Logosone]

Chills...just chills.

 

 

[tifino]

Wuhan pets need to be scared?

 

[jak2002003]

20 hours ago, CraigInBangkok said:

Not that its my choice to make but I would say we should just carry on as normal. Although I realise its a difficult choice for any government to make. Whichever way they choose lots of people won't be happy

 

EDIT : when I say normal ... obviously I mean with caution 

I was thinking I was the only person with this view.  

 

I think that trying to stop anyone getting the virus is not going to work in the long run.... it will just drag it out for the foreseeable future.  Even if they nearly eradicated it, then it would only take case to start it up all over again, and then back to panic mode.  

 

It is making people get scared when they hear the media reporting all the cases, day in and day out, and making it into frightening exciting news.  It would be better for them to not report how many cases there are, and only report the actual death toll.

 

I think many people panic as they see the number of cases increase.. not realising that all these cases are not going to die of it!

 

Also, as we have been told so far... most of the people that die are very elderly and suffering from disease already which would kill them if the virus did not.

 

 

[RJRS1301]

1 hour ago, tifino said:

Wuhan pets need to be scared?

 

Well many eat pussy anyway

[gamb00ler]

The Atlantic periodical is giving free access to all its articles about COVID-19.  Here's a few good ones:

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/03/biography-new-coronavirus/608338/

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/national-shutdown-least-bad-option/608683/

 

[tifino]

On 3/25/2020 at 8:43 PM, Logosone said:

Well, it looks like either way we will have herd immunity.

 ...more like a case of that the strongest in the herd survive...

  - a herd of gazelle being pursued by a gang of hyena, with more hyena being cloned mature every minute

[DrTuner]

On 3/25/2020 at 4:43 PM, Logosone said:

Well, it looks like either way we will have herd immunity.

 

The stark choice to be made is do we shut down whole countries in a mega-effort to delay the onset of peak infection, so that hospitals are not overwhelmed and can save the, mostly older, potential mortality candidates or do we think of the living, the children, the future generations, because the shutting down of whole countries will be an economic disaster.

 

The bailing out of millions of unemployed, the loss of income, taxation, increased cost for health services, all of that, the total cost can only be palmed off on future generations. Again. It can not be paid by those alive now.

 

Do the lives of those about to die, outweigh the millions of lives that will be affected by having to pay for the current measures for generations to come?

That the question posed to politicians. What I would give to have direct democracy and have my own input counted. I'd opt for the economic hit, not because it's nice, but because it would force the world to get rid of China in the supply chains. Has to be done sooner or later.

Edited March 26, 2020 by DrTuner

[gamb00ler]

9 hours ago, jak2002003 said:

I think that trying to stop anyone getting the virus is not going to work in the long run.... it will just drag it out for the foreseeable future.  Even if they nearly eradicated it, then it would only take case to start it up all over again, and then back to panic mode.  

I don't see any governmental policy anywhere that is trying to TOTALLY prevent any persons infection forever.  Shutting down non-essential business/services is not intentioned to be a permanent order.  Their intent is to flatten the curve and spread the same number of infections over a longer period.  If they succeed in that, the total number of infected will be the SAME as if they didn't make such attempt.  Any one competent in mathematics will tell you that the area under the curve (total cases) is the same with the flattened curve or the tsunami-like curve.  The shape of that curve determines the shape of demand on health care resources.

 

Here's a very illustrative explanation.  You have 20 gallons of water and you want a shower.  You can use a fire hose for 10 seconds or a normal shower head for 10 minutes.  Which works better?

 

You seem to have an internet connection and there are many sites that can explain this.  Keep reading until you find one that you understand.  So far, you've missed.

Edited March 26, 2020 by gamb00ler

[jak2002003]

On 3/26/2020 at 11:17 PM, gamb00ler said:

I don't see any governmental policy anywhere that is trying to TOTALLY prevent any persons infection forever.  Shutting down non-essential business/services is not intentioned to be a permanent order.  Their intent is to flatten the curve and spread the same number of infections over a longer period.  If they succeed in that, the total number of infected will be the SAME as if they didn't make such attempt.  Any one competent in mathematics will tell you that the area under the curve (total cases) is the same with the flattened curve or the tsunami-like curve.  The shape of that curve determines the shape of demand on health care resources.

 

Here's a very illustrative explanation.  You have 20 gallons of water and you want a shower.  You can use a fire hose for 10 seconds or a normal shower head for 10 minutes.  Which works better?

 

You seem to have an internet connection and there are many sites that can explain this.  Keep reading until you find one that you understand.  So far, you've missed.

I do understand that.  But, what happens when the lockdown restrictions are relaxed, won't the infection rate speed up again and the hospitals get overwhelmed with cases?   Will be have to go through the cycle of lockdowns over and over again indefinitely?  

 

 

[AussieBob18]

On 3/25/2020 at 11:24 PM, Logosone said:

Ohhh to think all this could have been avoided if our governments had not just watched Wuhan but taken isolation action then.

None of this would have happened.

It's so infurating.

 

And it could have easily happened if Taiwan was recognised by WHO as a seperate State.  Very early in the piece Taiwan heard about a new infection in Wuhan, and knowing the CCP as they do, they sent in their own team to check it out.  Their own team saw it as it truly was and did not believe the CCP or Wuhan authorities.  Taiwan immediately implemented steps to protect its own citizens, and was the first country to ban in/out travel from China.  But the big thing is that Taiwan tried to warn WHO that CCP was lying, and the WHO ignored them - but at least WHO has stated that they are 'learning' and will do better in future. 

 

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/taiwan-has-a-similar-sized-population-to-australia-so-why-does-it-only-have-400-covid-cases-c-971542

 

 

[Swimfan]

On 3/28/2020 at 3:23 PM, jak2002003 said:

I do understand that.  But, what happens when the lockdown restrictions are relaxed, won't the infection rate speed up again and the hospitals get overwhelmed with cases?   Will be have to go through the cycle of lockdowns over and over again indefinitely?  

 

 

That’s very possible. The UK is thinking it may have to shut down for 6 months and open for 3 on a cycle until a vaccine is available. 
I think if you can get the number low enough they will be able to stabilize transmissions through contact tracing. That is why they are rushing out apps that can identify who has been in the vicinity of a positive person. Some say invasion of privacy but it might just be what will save us from continued lockdowns.  

[chessman]

1 hour ago, AussieBob18 said:

And it could have easily happened if Taiwan was recognised by WHO as a seperate State.

It is pretty shameful that the rest of the world kowtows to China and thus Taiwan is excluded from the WHO and many other international organisations. 

[AussieBob18]

11 hours ago, chessman said:

It is pretty shameful that the rest of the world kowtows to China and thus Taiwan is excluded from the WHO and many other international organisations. 

This all happened under Clinton. Up until then the USA strongly supported a seperate State for Taiwan and called it Taiwan. Clinton did a lot of bad things, but just like the last Dem POTUS he was seen as charasmatic and 'nice' by the media, and he was not often criticised.  That was when the Dems learned how to manipulate the media and people - get a charasmatic leader.  If Trump was banging/whatever an intern their outrage would have no limits. 

 

But back to Clinton - he supported China into the WTA (World Trade Ageement) and with that came a lot of 'mutual benefits' - and to China that included more support of their geopolitical aspirations - especially getting Taiwan back.

 

Just take a look at what was happening under Obama - China built 'islands' in the Sth China Sea and then claimed they 'owned and controlled' the waters around them.  Obama did nothing. Trump said '<deleted> off' sailed the 7th fleet straight through it, and declared China's claims as 'fake territtory' and vetoed acceptance in the UN.  And you have to look hard to find any media coverage about it all - I wonder wjhy that is ????

 

Many good things are going to come out of Covid19 - the biggest one is that the people of the world are realising that China is really a Communist State and that it is bad - very bad. The people are learning that China has been lying and cheating - and that they have been corrupting their own politicians and leaders for decades. 

 

China has millions of 'dissidents' in gaol - and at least 2 million have been 'executeed' or disappeared over the decades since Clinton paved the way for their acceptance into the World.  At least with USSR we all knew how bad they were.  China has conned and tricked the people of the world into believeing they are OK - by cheating the rules and corrupting the politicians and leaders. China is USSR under Stalin - but with a modern PR system and with billions of dollars for bribery and influence. China is not all about making cheap khrap for us - they are all about taking over SEAsia and extending their dominance - using the money they make from building all that cheap khrap for us.

 

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-29560533

 

[gamb00ler]

On 3/27/2020 at 9:23 PM, jak2002003 said:

I do understand that.  But, what happens when the lockdown restrictions are relaxed, won't the infection rate speed up again and the hospitals get overwhelmed with cases?   Will be have to go through the cycle of lockdowns over and over again indefinitely?  

You're right in that if/when restrictions are relaxed, more infections will take place.  The important point to keep in mind is that restrictions shouldn't be relaxed until an effective and efficient plan for testing and contact tracing is put in place.  With adequate testing new cases will be found early and the recent contacts for those newly discovered infections will be traced, tested and quarantined as required.  Such a plan will keep the numbers of people under quarantine manageable and stop them from further transmission.  This method will keep the rate of new infections under control and will not lead to deaths caused by lack of health care facilities.

 

The prolonging of the progress of the disease will allow time to hopefully find treatments and perhaps even a vaccine.  If neither of those avenues of mitigation become available, at least the health care system won't be crushed under the onslaught of exponentially growing new infection.

 

If you can, watch Dr. Fauci and his explanations of the containment and mitigation phases of virus control.  In USA POTUS ignored the opportunity to control the infection by bringing the full force of the Federal government to bear on containment. <Trump sycophants no need to expound upon Trump's stopping travel from China to US.  It was his sole effort and was only partially effective because it did not include a testing/quarantine component and only partially stopped the flow.  Scientists also have determined that most clusters in NY originated through contacts with Europe.>

 

Now USA is stuck with the expensive/inefficient/draconian mitigation method as the only remaining option.

[DrTuner]

3 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

China is USSR under Stalin

Nomen est omen, as they say:

 

CCCP = dude without shirt riding tigers

CCP = the fluffy bear fella

CP = owns Chailand

P = uncle

 

It's like having general stars, the more C's you got, the higher up you are.

Edited April 14, 2020 by DrTuner

[AussieBob18]

5 hours ago, DrTuner said:

Nomen est omen, as they say:

 

CCCP = dude without shirt riding tigers

CCP = the fluffy bear fella

CP = owns Chailand

P = uncle

 

It's like having general stars, the more C's you got, the higher up you are.

And when China is done (if allowed) it will be as what Julius said:  veni vidi vici

  

[simple1]

19 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

<SNIP>

Just take a look at what was happening under Obama - China built 'islands' in the Sth China Sea and then claimed they 'owned and controlled' the waters around them.  Obama did nothing. <SNIP>

Usual one sided arguments. As an example of a more balanced comprehension...

 

Obama and Trump lost the South China Sea.

 

https://www.livemint.com/Opinion/pROZEkOqkt7KurDNk13ECJ/Barack-Obama-and-Donald-Trump-lost-the-South-China-Sea.html

[AussieBob18]

6 hours ago, simple1 said:

Usual one sided arguments. As an example of a more balanced comprehension...

Obama and Trump lost the South China Sea.

https://www.livemint.com/Opinion/pROZEkOqkt7KurDNk13ECJ/Barack-Obama-and-Donald-Trump-lost-the-South-China-Sea.html

Good article - but a little bit light on Obama's role in the disaster.  It was written in June 2018 and Trump was in Office for 1.5 years - and yet he is blamed in the article as much as Obama who did nothing for 8 years.  Since then Trump has played hardball a lot more than Obama ever did - but the article is right in that Trump has put China's role about Trade, Nth Korea and Iran (Isreal) above the China sea problem. And all of those issues are more important - but Trump Defence Admin regularly sends warships through and warplanes over the areas claimed by China and has made it very clear in the UN and elsewhere that USA will nebver support China's claims and will veto any such resolution.  Remember, China has spent 3 decades buying 'influence' inside many international bodies - they are playing the 'long game'.  Meanwhile we in the west are struggling with the media highlighting the here and now issues and 3-4 year election cycles - we have a lot of catching up to do. 

[simple1]

3 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

Trump has played hardball

What exactly has trump achieved with the South China Sea issue?

 

The Trump administration wants to build a rules-based and democracy-led regional order but seems to have no idea how. And instead of trying to figure that out, it has placed strategic issues on the back burner—for example, it downgraded its participation in the recent Asia–Pacific summits in Bangkok—and focused on bilateral trade deals. Not surprisingly, this approach has done nothing to curb China’s territorial revisionism,

 

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/americas-feeble-indo-pacific-strategy/

[AussieBob18]

23 minutes ago, simple1 said:

What exactly has trump achieved with the South China Sea issue?

 

The Trump administration wants to build a rules-based and democracy-led regional order but seems to have no idea how. And instead of trying to figure that out, it has placed strategic issues on the back burner—for example, it downgraded its participation in the recent Asia–Pacific summits in Bangkok—and focused on bilateral trade deals. Not surprisingly, this approach has done nothing to curb China’s territorial revisionism,

 

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/americas-feeble-indo-pacific-strategy/

I wrote a really good reply to this ???? - but the idiot at MSoft who developed keyboard 'smart keys'  and did not allow them to be deactivated, yet again failed to realise old men are clumsy when typing - somehow I pressed the 2-3 wrong keys and Chrome completely shut down and I lost everything.

 

Shorter version.  The Institute is a pro-Defence supporting organisation. They want more US involvement in SEAsia which of course leads to more business for them - they are still hurting after Obama cut back things so much. 

 

One example of their 'agenda' - they claim US did not do enough after passing Taiwan Travel Act. But look at what that Act was - from Wikipedia:  The law is considered a substantial upgrade to Taiwan–United States relations, making them official though still sub-diplomatic. As such, the law was harshly criticized by the government of the People's Republic of China in Beijing (which had formally protested the bill through ambassador Cui Tiankai, demanding it not pass) for violating the One-China principle, which holds that Taiwan is an inalienable sovereign part of China.

Same for a lot of other stuff in the report - they want more involvement of US in SEAsia - good for business.

 

[simple1]

7 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

I wrote a really good reply to this ???? - but the idiot at MSoft who developed keyboard 'smart keys'  and did not allow them to be deactivated, yet again failed to realise old men are clumsy when typing - somehow I pressed the 2-3 wrong keys and Chrome completely shut down and I lost everything.

 

Shorter version.  The Institute is a pro-Defence supporting organisation. They want more US involvement in SEAsia which of course leads to more business for them - they are still hurting after Obama cut back things so much. 

 

One example of their 'agenda' - they claim US did not do enough after passing Taiwan Travel Act. But look at what that Act was - from Wikipedia:  The law is considered a substantial upgrade to Taiwan–United States relations, making them official though still sub-diplomatic. As such, the law was harshly criticized by the government of the People's Republic of China in Beijing (which had formally protested the bill through ambassador Cui Tiankai, demanding it not pass) for violating the One-China principle, which holds that Taiwan is an inalienable sovereign part of China.

Same for a lot of other stuff in the report - they want more involvement of US in SEAsia - good for business.

 

OK, but again I ask you what exactly has trump achieved with the South China Sea issue?

[AussieBob18]

59 minutes ago, simple1 said:

OK, but again I ask you what exactly has trump achieved with the South China Sea issue?

You will not find it on CNN or MSNBC that is for sure. Read my earlier statements - Trump has done way more than Obuma (nothing) - you even listed some of them yourself in your links (eg. Taiwan Travel Act).  Lets just agree that Trump has done some things and Obima did nothing much.

[AussieBob18]

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1160311-covid19-no-need-to-panic-still/

 

[cornishcarlos]

On 4/13/2020 at 10:44 PM, Swimfan said:

Some say invasion of privacy but it might just be what will save us from continued lockdowns.  

 

That's exactly what it is, under the guise of "saving us from lock downs"... 

Now it's the stage where they will break people, financially and mentally.

Next they will mandate the App that can not only track you but tell them who is with you...

If you don't comply, another "wave" will be imminent and lock down announced !!! 

 

It won't take much for everyone to fold and mission accomplished

 

 

Edited April 22, 2020 by cornishcarlos