Wuhan Covid Virus - no need to be scared - yet

[AussieBob18]

11 hours ago, chessman said:

But the people who have got it so far in Germany have been younger. That is true.

Look at the numbers I quoted about the increase in deaths. You expect life to go on as usual as the numbers of deaths double every 4 days?

If what you are saying was occurring everywhere - then you would be correct. But the death rates have dropped significantly in China and Korea who got it big time first. 

 

As in all viral infections there is always an initial uptake of cases that then slows down as the virus spreads - eventually it runs its course and becomes dormant - until something triggers it again.  Some viral infections lay dormant for decades - others come back every few years.  My point is that the start of the worldwide panic, then fuelled by media, Govts, social media, etc etc, came when the WHO launced the 'pandemic protocols' and stated what they thought was going to happen and how many they were predicting that were going to die - unless the pandemic protocols were implemented.  Good intentions.

 

When swine flu hit Mexico/USA there was a general attitude that 'normal' protocols would be followed to deal with the infection.  But it took off harder than they thought and was growing too fast to control. It was only after many months that the emergency protocols were enacted, and that helped the infection to be brought under control.   In the end they estimated that 500K people have died from Swine Flu (H1N1).  But here is the reality - it is now considered as a normal seasonal flu.  But at the beginning it looked like it was going to kill millions.

 

SARS happened in 2003, and it was then that the protocols were first reraly tested and worked.  The protocols were updated and enhanced and were then done for Swine Flu.  And then MERS happened and the protocols had again been updated and enhanced and they were imnplemented and they worked to.  One of the reasons all three infections were controlled was because the pandemic protocols were started and the spread was slowed.

 

If you know bureacracies like I do, you will know they always 'update and enhance' - meaning grow and grow and become more in control.  So it is 3 for 3 and WHO are killing it - and growing and growing.  It is now 2020 and Covid19 happens - so what do they do - they fire up their protocols and demand the world comply.  And the world complied because it sure looked bad.  And away it went - SARS, Swine, MERS on steroids they said - this must be done or this will happen - what politician is not going to comply.  Result - massive over-reaction or the saviours of the world?

 

No one really knows - but I know this. Bureaucracies do not like having their 'control' or funding reduced, and they will be looking (already are probably) how to deflect and blame if this doesnt go the way they predicted. They will be the last to put up thjeir hands if they were wrong - so dont look there for the truth.  

 

Edited March 22, 2020 by AussieBob18

[Puccini]

23 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

...I am no expert...

Even though you are no expert you should at least have made an effort to get the title of your topic right. The virus you are writing about is not called Wuhan Covid Virus. Its correct name is SARS-CoV-2.

[gamb00ler]

22 hours ago, Logosone said:

 

No, actually, seasonal flu is not 'totally different' from Covid19, the symptoms are almost identical. Scientists are using previous flu pandemics to model the numbers. They are using the genomic data of the coronavirus in the same databases used to develop influenza vaccines:

 

 "The two full sequences of the virus isolated in two of the first French cases were submitted to the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) platform, which was initially developed to share sequences and monitor the genetic evolution of influenza viruses, a process that is vital to determine the composition of the influenza vaccine. A special "coronavirus" tab has been created so that the scientific community can work together and advance at a quicker pace."

 

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/01/200131114748.htm

 

 

I am pretty sure that you have misunderstood a lot of the science information that you have read about COVID-19.

 

The fact that this virus shares some symptoms with seasonal influenza is not very relevant to preventative measures, treatments or infection rates.

 

Scientists are correctly using flu pandemic models to help model COVID-19.  But, seasonal influenza models bare very little resemblance to pandemic flu models.

 

The use of a database tool for both influenza and COVID-19 doesn't mean the respective viruses are comparable.  A mechanic uses some of the the same tools on a scooter as on an 18-wheeler.

 

The three biggest factors that make COVID-19 many times more dangerous than the seasonal influenza are:

- NO ONE has immunity to COVID-19 and we cannot give anyone immunity yet with a vaccine.  The annual flu vaccine and previous exposure of a substantial percentage of the populations means there are far fewer potential spreaders for it.

- completely asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers can spread the disease and that coupled with the low testing rate in some countries leads to exponential infection rates as observed in Italy, US and Iran.

- no current treatment means infected people remain carriers longer.

Edited March 22, 2020 by gamb00ler
spelin

[AussieBob18]

I just saw the story on TV that Thai Govt is going to fine smokers for lighting up in public - in case that spreads Covid19.

Tried looking for any research or inof to support this - couldnt find anything.

But there might be some truth in it. 

China has a high rate of smokers and so does Italy and Germany does not.

Maybe.  But clearly, dont smoke - and if you do, stop now - this is as good a reason as any.

[RJRS1301]

1 minute ago, gamb00ler said:

I am pretty sure that you have misunderstood a lot of the science information that you have read about COVID-19.

 

The fact that this virus shares some symptoms with seasonal influenza is not very relevant to preventative measures, treatments or infection rates.

 

Scientists are correctly using flu pandemic models to help model COVID-19.  But, seasonal influenza models bare very little resemblance to pandemic flu models.

 

The use of a database tool for both influenza and COVID-19 doesn't mean the respective virus's are comparable.  A mechanic uses some of the the same tools on a scooter as on an 18-wheeler.

 

The three biggest factors that make COVID-19 many times more dangerous than the seasonal influenza are:

- NO ONE has immunity to COVID-19 and we cannot give anyone immunity yet with a vaccine.  The annual flu vaccine and previous exposure of a substantial percentage of the populations means there are far fewer potential spreaders for it.

- completely asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers can spread the disease and that coupled with the low testing rate in some countries leads to exponential infection rates as observed in Italy, US and Iran.

- no current treatment means infected people remain carriers longer.

Some do not understand differences in scientific modeling  and terminology, and that is fine and voice opinions with known information.

Maybe we can all learn with open minds

[RJRS1301]

1 minute ago, AussieBob18 said:

I just saw the story on TV that Thai Govt is going to fine smokers for lighting up in public - in case that spreads Covid19.

Tried looking for any research or inof to support this - couldnt find anything.

But there might be some truth in it. 

China has a high rate of smokers and so does Italy and Germany does not.

Maybe.  But clearly, dont smoke - and if you do, stop now - this is as good a reason as any.

Compromised lung function for most smokers, leads to greater risk of infection and lun complications as this is respiratory disease

[Don Mega]

Just now, AussieBob18 said:

It was a joke -

 

Like pretty much everything you post.

[JimmyTheMook]

It's not the infection that will necessarily kill you - it is the access to proper medical treatment that will.

 

 

[Don Mega]

Just now, RJRS1301 said:

Compromised lung function for most smokers, leads to greater risk of infection and lun complications as this is respiratory disease

How is it anyworse for spreading the boomer remover virus than a non smoker just breathing ?

[AussieBob18]

5 minutes ago, gamb00ler said:

I am pretty sure that you have misunderstood a lot of the science information that you have read about COVID-19.

The fact that this virus shares some symptoms with seasonal influenza is not very relevant to preventative measures, treatments or infection rates.

Scientists are correctly using flu pandemic models to help model COVID-19.  But, seasonal influenza models bare very little resemblance to pandemic flu models.

The use of a database tool for both influenza and COVID-19 doesn't mean the respective virus's are comparable.  A mechanic uses some of the the same tools on a scooter as on an 18-wheeler.

The three biggest factors that make COVID-19 many times more dangerous than the seasonal influenza are:

- NO ONE has immunity to COVID-19 and we cannot give anyone immunity yet with a vaccine.  The annual flu vaccine and previous exposure of a substantial percentage of the populations means there are far fewer potential spreaders for it.

- completely asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers can spread the disease and that coupled with the low testing rate in some countries leads to exponential infection rates as observed in Italy, US and Iran.

- no current treatment means infected people remain carriers longer.

You are correct.  However, the same was true of Swine Flu (H1N1) and in fact Covid19 has numbers of rates similar to that at the beginning.  The biggest difference with Swine Flu was that the infection and mortality rates of those over 60 was extremely low compared to all previous viral infections.  They believe that this is because the Swine Flu virus is very similar to the virus that caused a pandemic in 1950s and the elderly had immunities that worked, but the younger ones did not. 

[AussieBob18]

6 minutes ago, Don Mega said:

How is it anyworse for spreading the boomer remover virus than a non smoker just breathing ?

'boomer remover'  LOLOLOL ????

I am a (late) boomer and that is hilarious.

Gotta keep the sense of hunour going.

[Don Mega]

Just now, AussieBob18 said:

'boomer remover'  LOLOLOL ????

I am a (late) boomer and that is hilarious.

Gotta keep the sense of hunour going.

yep I reckon its great... was talking to a work collegue back in AUS he was in self quarantine and his son popped up in the background (video call) and yelled it out... Had coffee dribbling out me nose and tears from me eyes !!

[AussieBob18]

12 minutes ago, RJRS1301 said:

Compromised lung function for most smokers, leads to greater risk of infection and lun complications as this is respiratory disease

Absolutely.  Do not smoke - gave upo decades ago myself.

 

But this is about the virus travelling in the exhaled smoke a much further distance than from normal breathing.  If that is true then that is maybe why so many in close quarters in one place (Wuhan box tower buildings, and Italy) got infected, whereas on a closed environment that is a ship and with people not smoking, the infection rate was only 20%.     

 

[Maestro]

Removed a troll post and the replies to it.ii

[gamb00ler]

21 hours ago, Logosone said:

 

A corona virus is not really a different beast from the influenza virus altogether. Both viruses lead to respiratory diseases. Both have near identical symptoms. Coronavirus is basically the Bat version of the flu. A new kind of flu (without having the exact same genome as the flu) for humans, with near identical symptoms to the flu.

 

You are right in that the influenza viruses are not identical in genome terms to the coronavirus. But then even within the coronavirus family the various virus forms differ. The key is that when scientists share the genome of the coronavirus on the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) platform this is not the same as sharing your illegal movies  and financial records on the same hard drive. The reason is that the procedure for finding an influenza virus vaccine and finding a coronavirus vaccine is the same. These viruses have the same symptoms, they are both respiratory disease viruses.

Actually creating the annual influenza vaccine is VERY different from the process they will use for COVID-19.  The seasonal flu is caused by a type of virus that mutates very frequently.  Since the vaccine creation process is lengthy the researchers have to guestimate in what direction the flu virus is mutating in hopes that the resultant vaccine will be effective when it is needed.  COVID-19 has AFAIK only two strains that are very similar and hopefully close enough that a vaccine will be much more effective than the annual flu vaccine.

 

http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/communicable-diseases/influenza/pandemic-influenza/how-pandemic-influenza-emerges

 

Edited March 22, 2020 by gamb00ler
clarity

[rabas]

44 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

'boomer remover'  LOLOLOL ????

I am a (late) boomer and that is hilarious.

Gotta keep the sense of hunour going.

Wait till it mutates to a 'millennial mop' like the Spanish flu.

Payback time.

[AussieBob18]

13 minutes ago, gamb00ler said:

Actually creating the annual influenza vaccine is VERY different from the process they will use for COVID-19.  The seasonal flu is caused by a type of virus that mutates very frequently.  Since the vaccine creation process is lengthy the researchers have to guestimate in what direction the flu virus is mutating in hopes that the resultant vaccine will be effective when it is needed.  COVID-19 has AFAIK only two strains that are very similar and hopefully close enough that a vaccine will be much more effective than the annual flu vaccine.

 

http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/communicable-diseases/influenza/pandemic-influenza/how-pandemic-influenza-emerges

 

You still in Vegas and coming in April??  Hang Dong - Chiang Mai?

[Logosone]

It is far too early to say how many strains Covid19 has, meaningful studies of mutations take years and require repetition cycles. 

 

As a typical RNA virus, the average evolutionary rate for coronaviruses is roughly 10−4 nucleotide substitutions per site per year. which is a substantial number

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30251-8/fulltext

 

The reason why current researchers are finding few strains is obviously that this strain of coronavirus was detected early and it's very early days. After a few repetition cycles the mutation figure for Covid19 could be more in line with other typical RNA viruses.

 

It will be similarly difficult to make a vaccine that is successful for Covid19 and the process is similar, though making a vacccine as such is not that difficult successful ones are. Data is shared on the same database that is used for the flu because the process to find a vaccine is similar to the process of finding flu vaccines, though obviously there have been more mutations for a virus that has been identified for far longer.

 

"RNA viruses, or those that have RNA as their main genetic material instead of DNA, including SARS-CoV-2, mutate constantly and do not have the mechanisms to fix these "mistakes," as human cells do, for example."

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-mutations.html

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Logosone]

1 hour ago, gamb00ler said:

The fact that this virus shares some symptoms with seasonal influenza is not very relevant to preventative measures, treatments or infection rates.

 

Scientists are correctly using flu pandemic models to help model COVID-19.  But, seasonal influenza models bare very little resemblance to pandemic flu models.

 

The use of a database tool for both influenza and COVID-19 doesn't mean the respective viruses are comparable.  A mechanic uses some of the the same tools on a scooter as on an 18-wheeler.

 

The three biggest factors that make COVID-19 many times more dangerous than the seasonal influenza are:

- NO ONE has immunity to COVID-19 and we cannot give anyone immunity yet with a vaccine.  The annual flu vaccine and previous exposure of a substantial percentage of the populations means there are far fewer potential spreaders for it.

- completely asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers can spread the disease and that coupled with the low testing rate in some countries leads to exponential infection rates as observed in Italy, US and Iran.

- no current treatment means infected people remain carriers longer.

 

That is of course wrong, the fact that Covid19 and Influenza share clinical symptoms and transmission method, are both respiratory diseases is very relevant to preventive measures. In fact the key preventive measure being used, social distancing, is exactly the same and was used during the Spanish flu pandemic as well.

 

The virus are very much comparable, not in genomic sense, but in other characteristics

 

COVID-19 is a very similar disease to influenza. 

 

https://now.tufts.edu/articles/how-does-covid-19-compare-flu

 

Your notion that no-one has immunity to Covid19 is plain and simple wrong, a lot of people have already been infected and have recovered, those people most likely will have immunity. The whole strategy of Sir Patrick Vallance in the UK is for the UK to develop 'herd immunity', because UK scientists believe that immunity to Covid19 will follow, isolated exceptions notwithstanding.

 

The flu vaccines were never a perfect defense to the flu, and you may want to ponder that in Thailand where flu vaccines are hardly used at all only 2500 people die of influenza per year whereas in the UK, where vaccination is widespread, 17000 die on average per year though the population of the UK is smaller.

 

 

[Logosone]

3 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

The 2009 Swine Flu pandemic impacted between 11-21% of the global population: 700 million to 1.4 Billion people, with between 150,000 and 575,000 fatalities (Because of Swine flu). 

 

These numbers are people who may have had ‘other complications’ but died because of Swine flu. i.e. had they not contracted swine flu they may have died by the end of year anyway, or recovered, but swine flu was the significant complicating factor in their passing - its a grey area, hence the large range in numbers.

 

So, Numbers for 2009 Swine Flu:

- Low end CFR: 150,000 people died of 1.4 Billion infected = CFR of 0.01%

- High end CFR: 575,000 people died of 700 million infected = CFR 0.08% 

 

Your CFR figure of 0.3% for Covid-19 is 3.6 timer higher than the best estimates for the worst flu epidemic in recent history and significantly higher than seasonal flu which has a much lower CFR of 0.001% to 0.01% [Source CDC figures for North America. (5-16 yrs olds: 1 death per 100,000ppl / 17-50 year olds: 2 deaths per 100,000 people / 51-65 yrs old: 10.6 deaths per 100,000 pals) - with a Crude death rate of 17.1 per 100,000 people (0.017%)]

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_09-508.pdf

 

Thus, even with your ‘erring on the low side’ approach to the stats, when using your CFR of 0.3% the numbers are potentially harrowing if this virus were to spread into the 100’s million to a billion. 

Thanks for an excellent post, Richard,

 

It is a perfectly helpful thing to refer to the 2009 Swine flu pandemic and we should analyse it carefully to get an idea of how virus pandemics can develop.

 

The first point to make is that the figures for the Swine flu were in much dispute for a long time, and it was only long  after it was over that a modicum of consensus developed.

 

You may recall the great panic about the swine flu at the time, people rushing to get flu vaccines, and in the end it turned out this swine flu was no more deadly than a seasonal flu in terms of mortality rate. It was wide transmission that was the issue.

 

You need to bear in mind that the figure of 0.3% for China was taken on a ten times multiple for Chinese cases. Sir Patrick Vallance has used a ten to twenty times multiple. Why? Because he doesn't know for sure. Nobody can know for sure if the cases in China were not twenty, thirty or fourty times higher than the identified cases. Only AFTER it is over, at the end will that be apparent.

 

However, it is already apparent that the actual mortality rate for Covid19 is nowhere near 3.4, % or 6% or anything of that nature at this point in time. The figure of 0.3% is likely to come down substantially after the pandemic is over and the true figures can be estimated more reliably.

 

Moreover, the extrapolations do not allow for measures like social distancing being taken, which some say will reduce cases by 60%, for the fact that covid19 could also be seasonal, all these things will be factored into the final figure, which could well be lower than 0.3% and more in line with the 2009 Swine flu pandemic.

 

 

Edited March 22, 2020 by Logosone

[gamb00ler]

59 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

You still in Vegas and coming in April??  Hang Dong - Chiang Mai?

Sadly..... or happily ... not sure which, our plans are on hold until this virus threat recedes.  We both have medicare so remaining here is the obvious choice. I shall update my location info right now. 

 

My MIL is 103 and also one of the sweetest persons I have ever met.  My wife has lived apart (USA) from Mom since her late teens and hopes to get to LOS ASAP.  My wife also doesn't have much faith in Thailand to deal effectively with this virus.

Edited March 22, 2020 by gamb00ler

[Logosone]

Of course what will happen when it is all over, and the final mortality rate is in the 0.09% range or whatever it ends up being, ie a figure comparable to the 2009 swine flu, we can be sure that the politicians now in charge will make sure to take the credit and have themselves feted like heroes. A public, which had hitherto believed mortality rates of 3.4% or 6.4% will of course be so relieved it will bow down and kiss the feet of these supposed saviours who put in place such far-sighted measures like social-distancing.

 

When in reality they should have been prepared at least since 2012 when the Robert Koch Insitute published a paper warning of the ramifications of a coronavirus pandemic.

 

We are already seeing how politicians, who caused the economic melt down in the first place by mandating that bars, restaurants and all public places be closed, are being feted for promising massive government handouts, see UK.

 

I am not suggesting that this Covid19 pandemic will not have large numbers of deaths, even with 0.09%, as Richard showed above, the figure would be a substantial amount of deaths. Therefore I am not saying governments taking measures now is a bad thing, they should be done and followed, however, of course governments could have been much better prepared to start with, and could have acted much sooner.

 

 

[AussieBob18]

3 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

Do you mean the knock on economic impact could be worse than that of the virus if left to spread without mitigation?

i.e. deaths related to poor health due to poverty in light of an economic crisis...etc?? 

Slow down in global development, less funds for cancer research and research into other illnesses which leads to more deaths which may have otherwise been prevented?

These potentials are unknown, but they exists. As does the potential for the Virus to spread. 

Models must exist somewhere and the choice has been made to chose one of two very bad choices. 

Do nothing and risk decimation of our society, do something and risk economic melt-down. 

 

Good points - two good thoughtful posts mate.

I guess what I am saying is that they did too much to avoid what they think is going to be a disaster.

Therefore they have ensured the economic melt-down, on the basis that the flu might decimate our society.

 

Perhaps the solution next time, and there will be a next time, is to implement quickly the protocols such that the areas of infection are shut down and the transmissions to others are curtailed and stopped.  This will mean a constant monitoring and testing of all viral infections worldwide (WHO bureaucracy will be happy) and some permanent restrictions of people travelling to/from certain countries without medical tesing of some form.  China blew that potential strategy this time - in my view China should be thrown out of the World Trade Agreement for 10 years as punishment, and as a deterrent to others.

[AussieBob18]

9 minutes ago, gamb00ler said:

Sadly..... or fortuitously... not sure which, our plans are on hold until this virus threat recedes.  We both have medicare so remaining here is the obvious choice. I shall update my location info right now. 

Glad to hear that - stay for a while.  My wife and I are in Aus, but we think about her Mum and others in Isaan - so far so good.  I hope I am right and this blows away like swine flu and becomes another seasonal flu like it did. But just in case we are all taking precautions.   We used to play golf a lot when we lived in CM - Hang Dong has a nice easy cheap Thai course and also a tourist type ones nearby - better but more expensive - Hill something and Gassan Lakes. 

 

[geriatrickid]

23 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

Good thoughts - good points.  And you are not paranoid - 'they' are going to take advantage.  Got a bit up the 'food chain' in my day and dealt with a few very wealthy people way above my station.  Being observant I learned something from them - they are always well informed (very very well informed) and they always take advantage of any given situation they can. They will use whatever influence they have to enhance any given situation to their favour.  I am not talking about the uber rich royal type families/companies - I am talking about those that make serious wealth.  They saw this coming and prepared - and they are are getting ready for the 'turn'.  I also learned that money and wealth is relative - for them to get some, others have to lose some.  Relativity = getting $1 from a million people is a hell of a lot easier than getting $1 million from 1 person. So yes - they are out to get advantage from me and you - and they always will be - and they always will.  We are all Jack.

 

Getting it at an old age will not be good - not as bad as WHO is saying - but not good.  Diamond Princess was full of older people - many got sick - but only 7 died.  But we have zero immunities from this virus and unlike the young, we cannot easily and quickly respond to this virus and develop new ones easily.  Take care and precautions - but dont panic - like that book in Hitchhiker's Guide to the Universe - whatever you do, dont panic.

 

   

You again misunderstand the impact of the infection. The Diamond Princess has

8 deaths, with the most recent a few days ago.  Of the 712 who were infected, only 551 have recovered. Where do you think those long term infected people are? Do the math. The virus may not kill, but 15%  become critically ill and they do not necessarily recover in a few weeks. Hospitals cannot keep losing beds to chronic care patients. It means that other critical care patients are denied care and they in turn die. 

 

 

 

[Don Mega]

1 hour ago, rabas said:

Wait till it mutates to a 'millennial mop' like the Spanish flu.

Payback time.

Excuse my ignorance but what is a millennial mop ?

[AussieBob18]

12 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Of course what will happen when it is all over, and the final mortality rate is in the 0.09% range or whatever it ends up being, ie a figure comparable to the 2009 swine flu, we can be sure that the politicians now in charge will make sure to take the credit and have themselves feted like heroes. A public, which had hitherto believed mortality rates of 3.4% or 6.4% will of course be so relieved it will bow down and kiss the feet of these supposed saviours who put in place such far-sighted measures like social-distancing.

 

When in reality they should have been prepared at least since 2012 when the Robert Koch Insitute published a paper warning of the ramifications of a coronavirus pandemic.

 

We are already seeing how politicians, who caused the economic melt down in the first place by mandating that bars, restaurants and all public places be closed, are being feted for promising massive government handouts, see UK.

 

I am not suggesting that this Covid19 pandemic will not have large numbers of deaths, even with 0.09%, as Richard showed above, the figure would be a substantial amount of deaths. Therefore I am not saying governments taking measures now is a bad thing, they should be done and followed, however, of course governments could have been much better prepared to start with, and could have acted much sooner.

Dead right mate - IMO that is exactly what has happenned and will happen.  

There are over a million people killed every year in road accidents - it is terrible when you look at the total numbers - and a tragedy when you look at the individual cases - but it is no reason to ban people travelling in cars and buses - it is the reality of life and death - we all die.  Every day a lot of people die from things that could be stopped - but the economic and social outcomes would be horrendous - even more deaths would occur in the long run. 

[AussieBob18]

3 minutes ago, Don Mega said:

Excuse my ignorance but what is a millennial mop ?

Kills the younger ones much more than the older ones - mops them up ????

I think that is what he means 

[Logosone]

3 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

Do you mean the knock on economic impact could be worse than that of the virus if left to spread without mitigation?

 

i.e. deaths related to poor health due to poverty in light of an economic crisis...etc?? 

Slow down in global development, less funds for cancer research and research into other illnesses which leads to more deaths which may have otherwise been prevented?

 

These potentials are unknown, but they exists. As does the potential for the Virus to spread. 

 

Models must exist somewhere and the choice has been made to chose one of two very bad choices. 

Do nothing and risk decimation of our society, do something and risk economic melt-down. 

 

 

 

Yes, I think the economic impact of the measures taken could be worse than the virus pandemic itself.

 

The virus pandemic could be over in four months or 12 months or 24 months. A vaccine will be found, though it will take time. I would suspect similar figures to the H1N1 pandemic you mentioned will die, possibly a few more.

 

However, the social and economic consequences of doing what now needs to be done, will last maybe ten years, if not longer. The Great Depression lasted almost a decade.

 

It was accompanied by suicides, massive increases in crime, wide-spread poverty and starvation. 

 

As more and more people become unemployed, have no money to survive, crime will become a much bigger issue, and governments will have less tax receipts, less resources to fight crime.

 

Nationalism and right wing views will increase dramatically, as the virus was seen as a foreign invader brought by 'the other', and fear of foreigners will increase. A recipe for disaster in populations that have significant numbers of migrants living in those societies.

 

Indeed for a long time research and funding will focus on coronaviruses with less funds for other illnesses which, combined, lead to more deaths.

 

The thing is governments have chosen 'do nothing' for far too long. In 2012 the Robert Koch Institute warned of the ramifications of a coronavirus pandemic. Governments did nothing. 

 

Of course, with the mass panic and fear now they have to do something, and what is being done should be done. But it could have been done much earlier. Governments could even have reacted in early January, even that would have been better. 

Edited March 22, 2020 by Logosone

[Don Mega]

4 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

Kills the younger ones much more than the older ones - mops them up ????

I think that is what he means 

Ahh righto, given how useless the youngens seem to be these days wiping them out cannot be a bad thing.