Trump considers reopening U.S. economy despite coronavirus spread

[Jingthing]

25 minutes ago, Sujo said:

I dont think people become immune. Already a case of a person getting it twice.

 

very ordinary of posters thinking the elderly are expendable for the sake of the economy. Lets start with their family then.

 

only option is to close it all down until a vaccine is found.

Yes you do gain at least temporary immunity if you're infected and recover. Claims of being reinfected are likely testing errors. 

 

Soon there will be a test to find such already infected and recovered people based on detecting antibodies. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 25, 2020 by Jingthing

[Nigel Garvie]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

Thanks Nigel, I read that article. This is exactly what we need to do look at things in detail.

 

First of all, I would much prefer the test, identify and isolate approach that is done in Germany, also SKorea and Singapore, with great success. However, it appears that would not be possible in the US, or Thailand, because of various reasons, lack of test kits, in the case of the US the population just being too large and spread out.

 

So this leaves the US with herd immunity. Indeed the HIT figure is the crucial factor, however the death rate you use of 1% or 4% is extremely unlikely to be accurate once the pandemic is over. The reason is that this figure only takes identified cases. If you were to take the figure of Sir Patrick Vallance, the UK chief medical advisor, a ten times or twenty times multiple for actual cases you would get a death rate much lower than the huge figure you get when you use merely identified cases. It is completely wrong to suggest that 60% of the US population could die, that is absolutely, completely and manifestly false.

 

So that is not the cost of opening the country for business. The cost is to paid anyway, people will die. The question is which is the faster way to achieve herd immunity. It would appear to be opening the US for business.

Well I appreciate that you are advocating something that you consider to be the least bad option in the circumstances, which of course are pretty grim.

 

Plenty of individuals have come up with different figures for the mortality rate, I was trying to give a broad perspective, including a worst case scenario. 

 

"It is completely wrong to suggest that 60% of the US population could die, that is absolutely, completely and manifestly false."  I DIDN'T SUGGEST THIS - it doesn't make sense of course. 

What I said was the worldwide deaths could be EQUIVALENT TO 60% of the US population. Please read it again!

[heybruce]

1 hour ago, Neeranam said:

The US economy has been due to crash. The powers that be were just waiting for a black swan event like this to enable the global financial reset.

 

It's not Trumps fault, yet those who don't like him will try to make it a political issue.

 

Right.  It's not like Trump was claiming the economy was doing great and was taking credit for it before the crash.

Edited March 25, 2020 by heybruce

[heybruce]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

The people getting it twice are an exception. The rule is immunity.

 

"However, it is very likely, based on other viral infections, that yes, once a person has had the infection they will generally be immune and won’t get it again. There will always be the odd exception, but that is certainly a reasonable expectation.."

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/the-big-question-over-coronavirus-can-a-person-get-it-twice

 

It would therefore make perfect sense for Trump to let America be open for business again. The more infections the greater the number of immune people, the sooner the virus pandemic will end. 

 

It's the best option for the US. And yes, very dangerous for the elderly.

If almost everyone will get infected, the numbers infected will be the same whether the virus spreads quickly or slowly.  There is no advantage to achieving herd immunity sooner, all it does is overwhelm hospitals and health care workers sooner, to a greater degree, and with less time to stockpile test kits, protective gear and other medical necessities.

 

It's an easy concept to understand.  Why don't you understand it?  Every credible medical professional and numbers person does.

[cleopatra2]

1 hour ago, Sujo said:

I dont think people become immune. Already a case of a person getting it twice.

 

very ordinary of posters thinking the elderly are expendable for the sake of the economy. Lets start with their family then.

 

only option is to close it all down until a vaccine is found.

I agree.

The effects on people's lives during an economic downturn is more dependent upon what governments do than the actual recession.

Once the crisis has passed the economy will have an opportunity to recover. I have yet to see a dead person recover.

[UbonThani]

2 hours ago, bristolboy said:

You can't protect older people if others are circulating freely. Unless they have no contact at all with the rest of society. Which is impossible.

They stay home.

 

Madness to shut everything for 5 or 6 months.

[UbonThani]

4 minutes ago, cleopatra2 said:

I agree.

The effects on people's lives during an economic downturn is more dependent upon what governments do than the actual recession.

Once the crisis has passed the economy will have an opportunity to recover. I have yet to see a dead person recover.

People die everyday. 1.25m on roads a year. 500k flu a year.

 

They dont shut everything down.

 

People need to get real.

[Solinvictus]

Anyone ever watch Rush Limbaugh? I checked it out the other week on YouTube. Those folks are in a bubble for sure.

 

Funny how he used to be on TV late at night as I went to sleep.

[Solinvictus]

7 minutes ago, UbonThani said:

People die everyday. 1.25m on roads a year. 500k flu a year.

 

They dont shut everything down.

 

People need to get real.

Whoa, watching FoxNews and came over to Thailand? LOL

Come on there comrade..watching Sean Hannity for entertainment or lack of the willingness to watch progressive news sources is one thing but to deny the extent of this current issue. Thats on another level. ????????‍♂️

 

#propaganda

Edited March 25, 2020 by Solinvictus

[Chomper Higgot]

5 minutes ago, UbonThani said:

They stay home.

 

Madness to shut everything for 5 or 6 months.

I'm not sure anyone is suggesting shutting everything, let alone shutting everything for 5 to 6 months, though I understand the confusion given the mixed messages and bumbling coming out of the WH.

 

But you mention 'madness', I don't think anyone disputes removing restrictions in the midst of a pandemic is madness. 

 

Where are the testing kits?

Where are the medical supplies?

Where are the respirators?

Where is the enactment of the Defence Production Act?

Where is the leadership the nation needs?

[Sujo]

10 minutes ago, UbonThani said:

People die everyday. 1.25m on roads a year. 500k flu a year.

 

They dont shut everything down.

 

People need to get real.

And there are limits to what u can do on the roads. More limits if u drive in bad conditions.

 

These are dire conditions that require extreme limits.

[heybruce]

42 minutes ago, UbonThani said:

People die everyday. 1.25m on roads a year. 500k flu a year.

 

They dont shut everything down.

 

People need to get real.

Health care systems in first world countries can handle the "routine" accident and disease rate in everyday life.  Covid-19 has already exceeded the capacity of health care in some parts of the world, and threatens to get much worse.  That is why smart countries are restricting non-essential activities.  Nobody is shutting everything down.

Edited March 25, 2020 by heybruce

[Logosone]

1 hour ago, Nigel Garvie said:

Well I appreciate that you are advocating something that you consider to be the least bad option in the circumstances, which of course are pretty grim.

 

Plenty of individuals have come up with different figures for the mortality rate, I was trying to give a broad perspective, including a worst case scenario. 

 

"It is completely wrong to suggest that 60% of the US population could die, that is absolutely, completely and manifestly false."  I DIDN'T SUGGEST THIS - it doesn't make sense of course. 

What I said was the worldwide deaths could be EQUIVALENT TO 60% of the US population. Please read it again!

I appreciate you want to look at the worst case scenario. And you're right you were suggesting world figures being 60% of the US population, my apologies. However, if you want to look at figures, then let's do so in a way that approximates our current reality. It is very difficult to estimate how many people will actually be infected, the estimates have varied widely, Sir Patrick Vallance has talked of 60% as s worst case scenario. I know other models and some universities have come up with 80% or more. But let's take this 60% figure.

 

If you take a real world mortality rate, ie one based on a realistic estimate of actual cases, not just identified cases then the mortality is much smaller than 60% of the American population. Taking a 0.3 mortality rate, which may still be too high, which does not take into account a future treatment, vaccine, the fact that immunity will stop the virus, the fact that only 150 countries are affected and not all countries of the world, ignoring all that, you would have a 25 million people figure for casualties.

 

So half of the pandemic the world has already lived through, the Spanish flu, which had 50 million casualties. An economic golden age followed in the 1920s.

 

Now, that is perspective. That is taking realistic figures. To suggest that an equivalent of 60% of the US population would die, even as a global figure is wrong. It's not even close.

[sletraveler]

The fool talking out of his ass.  He has closed nothing and has no power to open anything.   

[Logosone]

1 hour ago, heybruce said:

If almost everyone will get infected, the numbers infected will be the same whether the virus spreads quickly or slowly.  There is no advantage to achieving herd immunity sooner, all it does is overwhelm hospitals and health care workers sooner, to a greater degree, and with less time to stockpile test kits, protective gear and other medical necessities.

 

It's an easy concept to understand.  Why don't you understand it?  Every credible medical professional and numbers person does.

I understand it perfectly, but I am looking also at other factors which you ignore. 

 

We can take it as understood that hospitals and health workers will be overwhelmed for a short time, whatever happens. People in Italy were practising the most extreme social distancing and still their hospitals where overwhelmed.

 

In a country like the US the idea of mass testing, identifying and isolating all the infected is a fantasy. It just won't happen.

 

So once you accept that some people will die, you need to think of the living. The sooner things get to normal the sooner the economic misery, the economic impact of the crisis can be overcome the better it will be. That is a real issue, which would also lead to wide-spread crime, domestic violence, suicides, child poverty and other very serious issues that could last much longer than a year or two, if the economies of the world are ruined in a pointless exercise of 'social isolation', which is never real isolation anyway. People have to eat, they have to work, they have to travel. Social Isolation is a waste of time.

 

If you're looking to the future and the health of a society you have to look at the children. To bankrupt entire generations and whole economies to keep alive a few old folks is frankly an odd decision and history will look back unfavourably on such a decision, if it were made.

Edited March 25, 2020 by Logosone

[bkk6060]

I actually believe he will open it up, but let governors do their own thing.

The markets are heading up again with the stimulus.

US markets usually are indicators of what things will be in 6 months.

By then, the virus will be gone (yes people will die), markets way up probably close to where they were, and Trump well on his way to getting re-elected. 

I am not saying I agree with it.  Just sayin though, I think the above will be the results.

[Opl]

I'm not an American and I support Andrew Cuomo: yes, America can put people's lives first, if not in NY, then where?    

[rvaviator]

9 hours ago, cmarshall said:

The fact is Trump is not going to be able to turn the economy back on.  People are not going to eat in restaurants, go to concerts, shop in malls, etc. because they are afraid.  And they will become more afraid as the Great Dying begins in earnest and skating rinks are converted to temporary morgues, etc.  Also, the lockdowns that have so far been imposed have been done by governors using their emergency powers and are not subject to revocation by the president.

 

Trump's lemmings will believe him and start congregating again and they will suffer the consequences just like the moron who killed himself taking chloroquine on Trump's recommendation.  

 

Trump, a failed businessman with no expertise of his own, does not believe the public health experts, because he doesn't understand what expertise actually is.  There is hardly any point is accusing Trump of lacking empathy.  Trump does not understand what empathy is.  Anyone who has had to work with a psychopath is familiar with that mentality.

Maybe karma ?  Many moons ago the 'great man' managed to dodge fighting in Vietnam ... Many brave young Americans fought and died in that war ...  Maybe this time he can not dodge the bullet ... ?

[earlinclaifornia]

2 hours ago, Solinvictus said:

Anyone ever watch Rush Limbaugh? I checked it out the other week on YouTube. Those folks are in a bubble for sure.

 

Funny how he used to be on TV late at night as I went to sleep.

Please could you help by sharing a bit more? I can't stomach him but I do try to keep up. Thank's

[Throatwobbler]

21 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

That my friend is the billion dollar question - well said. 

I think a lot of people are going to suddenly have to do what they haven't done before - accept accountability and responsibility.

Shutting the world down is fine when the outcome is the deaths of hundreds of millions as in the zombie movies, but if the net amount of deaths are going to be less than the number of people that die in car accidents, then there are going to be a lot of unemployed people after 3 months asking where do I get some food and when can I get a job/money.  If the world shuts down for 6 months then all those people who panic bought are going to be happy and/or robbed of the food/supplies they stored.

 

What is the acceptable number of dead for you? Can you give a number?

[Nyezhov]

7 minutes ago, Throatwobbler said:

What is the acceptable number of dead for you? Can you give a number?

Well if its like the flu...........

Or heart attacks, car accidents, war....

 

Every death sucks. But death is a part of life and one shouldnt forsake the living to stave off the reaper.

[Logosone]

19 minutes ago, Throatwobbler said:

What is the acceptable number of dead for you? Can you give a number?

I'd say, whilst regrettable, a number of 25 million dead would be in line with previous pandemics such as the Spanish flu.

 

Whether we want to accept it or not is irrelevant, we will have to.

[Throatwobbler]

9 hours ago, Logosone said:

We can be pretty sure the medical systems of the world, including the US, will be overwhelmed whatever happens. The only possible exceptions are the German, SKorean and Japanese health systems. The rest will have to go through panic mode like Italy, Spain and the UK soon

 

The number of deaths, of course, will be finite, there is only so much population. The same number of people will die either way, as our governments seem to be unable to test, identify and isolate the nececssary numbers.

 

Basically what you're saying is that we should all self-isolate to do the health services a favour. 

 

The problem is that self-isolation will mean herd immunity comes slower, so this is all dragged out.

Scientists are not even sure yet if recovering from Covid will give you immunity in the future and if it does for how long. The whole herd immunity thing is being based on assumption that it does.

[candide]

What is striking is that Trump is unable to keep his big gob shut. He could have waited a few days to check how the pandemic was spreading before talking, but no! He has to open it and invoke the Easter bunny.

Edited March 25, 2020 by candide

[samran]

6 hours ago, cmarshall said:

Unless there is some other, unknown source of illness in Florida, the Sunshine State is about to explode with corona.  Good work Gov. DeSantis, who has failed to issue a shelter-at-home order, failed to close the beaches, etc.  

 

 

https://healthweather.us/

 

I think the map also shows Florida’s 27 electoral college votes turning bad for Trump...

[Nyezhov]

9 minutes ago, candide said:

What is striking is that Trump is unable to keep his big gob shut. He could have waited a few days to check how the pandemy was spreading before talking, but no! He has to open it and invoke the Easter bunny.

guess folks in the US dont necessarily agree with you. 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/public_approval_of_president_trumps_handling_of_the_coronavirus-7088.html

 

That was before his huge Town Hall on Fox yesterday. 

[Throatwobbler]

2 hours ago, Logosone said:

I understand it perfectly, but I am looking also at other factors which you ignore. 

 

We can take it as understood that hospitals and health workers will be overwhelmed for a short time, whatever happens. People in Italy were practising the most extreme social distancing and still their hospitals where overwhelmed.

 

In a country like the US the idea of mass testing, identifying and isolating all the infected is a fantasy. It just won't happen.

 

So once you accept that some people will die, you need to think of the living. The sooner things get to normal the sooner the economic misery, the economic impact of the crisis can be overcome the better it will be. That is a real issue, which would also lead to wide-spread crime, domestic violence, suicides, child poverty and other very serious issues that could last much longer than a year or two, if the economies of the world are ruined in a pointless exercise of 'social isolation', which is never real isolation anyway. People have to eat, they have to work, they have to travel. Social Isolation is a waste of time.

 

If you're looking to the future and the health of a society you have to look at the children. To bankrupt entire generations and whole economies to keep alive a few old folks is frankly an odd decision and history will look back unfavourably on such a decision, if it were made.

What you have to remember is that the numbers of cases will not start to fall as soon as it starts social distancing. It takes some time for the Covid numbers to start to drop. The number of new cases each day in Italy seems to be beginning to drop so it looks like the effects of social distancing has worked.

[candide]

14 minutes ago, Nyezhov said:

guess folks in the US dont necessarily agree with you. 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/public_approval_of_president_trumps_handling_of_the_coronavirus-7088.html

 

That was before his huge Town Hall on Fox yesterday. 

We'll see what they will think about reopening the country at Eastern after this week's numbers are known.

Edited March 25, 2020 by candide

[earlinclaifornia]

45 minutes ago, Nyezhov said:

guess folks in the US dont necessarily agree with you. 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/public_approval_of_president_trumps_handling_of_the_coronavirus-7088.html

 

That was before his huge Town Hall on Fox yesterday. 

I am not one to discount Americans likeliness to gather around a President, as history repeats itself. BUT his being directly directing Americans to return to NORMAL is probably the hugest risk to any re-election.

[earlinclaifornia]

3 hours ago, sletraveler said:

The fool talking out of his ass.  He has closed nothing and has no power to open anything.   

All of America has the choice to follow this historic President OR choose to follow good practices and probably have a better chance to survive.