Leading Thai doctor tells the public: STAY HOME, fears there could be 350,000 COVID-19 cases

[Jimbo2014]

51 minutes ago, from the home of CC said:

unfortunately this is exactly the circumstances in most countries other than China with the UK and the USA potentially being the next Italy, but I agree, Thailand won't be spared..

The problem is that all countries are now ruled by incompetent oligarchs who didnt have to sit through maths class when we learnt exponential change ????

[Mikeasq60]

Im curious is Thailand thinking about the future and the monetary side of this lock down? Can Thailand afford it dont you think its time Thailand reopens for buisness again?

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

7 hours ago, BobbyL said:

It keeps being urged, but it isn't being implemented.

 

I was walking down Sukhumvit Rd in central BKK this afternoon on the way to and returning from grocery shopping (with a good mask on). To my amazement, quite a few Indian tailor shops along the road were open with the usual touts sitting out front. Did someone declare Indian tailor shops to be an "essential" service exempt from the current restrictions?

 

[DrTuner]

1 hour ago, Jimbo2014 said:

The problem is that all countries are now ruled by incompetent oligarchs who didnt have to sit through maths class when we learnt exponential change ????

I think you nailed the real problem. Politicians, dictators and other assorted useless showstoppers must step aside while professionals take over the show.

[ukrules]

3 hours ago, Misterwhisper said:

I think Dr. Prasit's prediction is not far off the mark

His predictions are very far off the mark, if people don't change their habits then we're going to see far more than 350k cases.

 

 

[Misterwhisper]

1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

I was walking down Sukhumvit Rd in central BKK this afternoon on the way to and returning from grocery shopping (with a good mask on). To my amazement, quite a few Indian tailor shops along the road were open with the usual touts sitting out front. Did someone declare Indian tailor shops to be an "essential" service exempt from the current restrictions?

 

They are extremely essential alright.... for Lumpini station to collect their tea monies.

[cooked]

8 hours ago, NanLaew said:

Maybe some well-meaning and socially aware Thai citizen in the village dobbed her in?

My wife did, she wasn't the only one.

[snoop1130]

Medical expert sees worst case scenario if “stay at home” directive ignored

 

 

A leading medical expert has painted a grim scenario for the COVID-19 situation in Thailand over the next 30 days if people do not follow the advice to stay at home.

 

Professor Dr. Prasit Wattanapa, dean of the Faculty of Medicine at Siriraj Hospital, said the exponential jump in the number of infection cases is posing grave concern.

 

Dr. Prasit is one of the well-respected medical experts who have been advising Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha on measures to deal with the coronavirus pandemic.

 

He noted that during January and February, the rate of infections was stable, at about 40.  In March, however, infections jumped, largely due to two clusters, namely those linked to the Lumpini boxing stadium and those associated with entertainment venues.

 

The world is divided into two groups of nations. The first comprises most countries in Europe, where the contagion is out of control, and the other group comprises countries where the virus is now under control, which include South Korea, Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong.

 

The “Golden Period” means the period when infections exceed 100, the tipping point to determine which country will end up which group.

 

The countries where infections are beyond control are those which record a jump in new infections of between 100 and 200 within three days, compared to five days for countries which manage to contain the virus spread.

 

In the case of Thailand, Dr. Prasit said the rate of new infections is now between 100 and 200 in 3.5 days, which means that there is a likelihood that Thailand will fall into the first group.

 

If this situation is allowed to continue, with people insisting on living as normal and not staying at home, the new infection rate in Thailand will jump by 33% per day. At this rate, infections in Thailand will soar to 351,948 by April 15th.  There will be 52,792 patients in hospital, including 17,597 in intensive care units, and 7,039 fatalities.

 

If everyone stays at home, however, the infection rate will not exceed 20% and, by April 15th, there will be about 24,269 infections “which is our target now,” he said. We could expect to have 3,640 patients in hospital, including 1,213 in ICU and 485 fatalities.

 

He noted that 17,597 people requiring in-patient treatment will be beyond the capacity of the health system.  The severe cases, whose lung function has been severely impacted by the virus, need life-support equipment and Thailand will become a “second Italy”, where doctors will have to decide whom to treat first.

 

Source: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/medical-expert-sees-worst-case-scenario-if-stay-at-home-directive-ignored/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2020-03-24

Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates

[YetAnother]

3 minutes ago, snoop1130 said:

A leading medical expert has painted a grim scenario for the COVID-19 situation in Thailand over the next 30 days if people do not follow the advice to stay at home.

no thinking person doubts him, an expert; problem is we live in a place where the average IQ cannot understand the issue, the average individual's self discipline here is quite low and enforcement of {anything} ranges from non-existent/lax/weak/pay-to-get-around

[Anant72]

How did the good doctor arrive at those precise figures? Mind boggling!

[DrTuner]

23 minutes ago, Anant72 said:

How did the good doctor arrive at those precise figures? Mind boggling!

He very likely used mathematical (exponential) models and percentages available from data from other countries. This man is no fool.

[Lodestone]

1 hour ago, snoop1130 said:

If everyone stays at home, however, the infection rate will not exceed 20% and, by April 15th, there will be about 24,269 infections “which is our target now,” he said.

 

Hmmm. If I start with today's (Mar 24) number of 827 infections and increase it daily by 20%, on Apr 15 I get 827*(1.2)^22 = 45,655.

 

Edit: 439.61*(1.2)^22 = 24,269. So how's he calculating this?

Edited March 24, 2020 by Lodestone

[FarFlungFalang]

5 hours ago, smedly said:

you need to read up on that - it came from China............period

Seems like some copy and paste action going on here!

[DrTuner]

14 minutes ago, Lodestone said:

 

Hmmm. If I start with today's (Mar 24) number of 827 infections and increase it daily by 20%, on Apr 15 I get 827*(1.2)^22 = 45,655.

 

Edit: 439.61*(1.2)^22 = 24,269. So how's he calculating this?

Maybe he substracted the ones that have cleared? The article also doesn't tell when he did his calculations. Could be days old.

[zhounan]

Many people around the world said 50%-60% of the population of their Countries will be affected by this virus, the majority of these (around 85%) won't even know they have it, so, I suppose Thailand is the same. 

Just to be sure, we should ask to Mr. & Mrs Gates, they're very good at pandemic exercises and malthusianism. 

[Teee]

Oh dear oh dear!!

Seems alot of you 'long term tourists' think its just the Thais going out and about.

My friends in Bkk tell me tourists are still going to ekkermal and getting on the bus to go Pattaya to party and go to the beach.

 

Now stop it!!

 

Everyone should be in lockdown Thais and Farangs.

 

Last word from me on this....you older 'long term tourists' that have lived in Thailand for many years and make comments on here about how Thais are racist against you....well after reading posts over the last 3 odd years most of you are racist living in a country that opened its arms and embraced you.

 

Live by the rules set or make your way back to where you once come from.

[DrTuner]

Ok, one programmer has done a SEIR tool where you can play with the variables like R0: http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html

 

Very, very interesting. I found it here: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

 

It's fairly clear now what needs to be done. There needs to be a period of somewhat extreme measures like mandatory quarantine in Thailand because they lost time with their antics about the testing. Then the rest of it should be routine. 

[Chelseafan]

15 hours ago, cooked said:

Lady turned up back in this village after somehow "escaping" from Bangkok. Told to stay home she was seen walking around. She talked to the lotto seller, guy in wheelchair needing dialysis twice a week, he of course had contact with many people that day, and most likely wouldn't survive Covida.

Yesterday she went to the village market which takes place at the railway station before the vendors take the train into town to sell there. This morning an ambulance arrived, not sure what happened then but she had to leave home. 

Faced with this kind of selfish stupidity I'm not sure how Thailand can escape the worse. 

We're on lockdown for now.

It's not just the Thais. All you said applies to Brits too.

[Soikhaonoiken]

16 hours ago, BobbyL said:

It keeps being urged, but it isn't being implemented.

 

Thailand has had the luxury of a very slow increase in cases from late Jan - now, yet have done nothing to prepare for this inevitable rise. The rules won't be followed without proper enforcement, however most things of any real importance in Thailand aren't properly enforced. 

They truly believed it wouldn't affect Thailand, and tried to kid the Nation that everything thing was 100% under control, and you also got a Minister to actually say the virus will disappear in the hot weather, how wrong have they been, and fear things have been done far too late

[Damrongsak]

I haven't trusted the Thai numbers since the beginning, nor the Chinese at one point.  If they don't/can't monitor and count, then it doesn't exist.  50K in the USA now.  What, over 200K in Europe close-in?  Maybe if I ate more Som Dam and drank more Lao Khao I'd be good to go. 

[Destiny1990]

Honestly I don’t see it end well. Many thais have big families and no aircons in all their rooms.. sitting inside their homes for a month i remain skeptical !! 

[rtco]

9 hours ago, Teee said:

Last word from me on this....you older 'long term tourists' that have lived in Thailand for many years and make comments on here about how Thais are racist against you....well after reading posts over the last 3 odd years most of you are racist living in a country that opened its arms and embraced you.

 

Live by the rules set or make your way back to where you once come from.

Couldn't have put it better myself

[PETERTHEEATER]

As far as I know the good doctor is not a member of Thaivisa. How then, can be be an expert????

[Geeyore]

10 hours ago, Teee said:

 

 

10 hours ago, Teee said:

My friends in Bkk tell me tourists are still going to ekkermal and getting on the bus to go Pattaya to party and go to the beach

We've been semi-isolating in BKK, but when I go out for essentials I'm just surprised at the high percentage of farang tourists who are unmasked and rather blase about what's happening here. Yesterday I spotted a Euro lady strutting down Suk unmasked and dressed rather inappropriately (hottie short shorts and halter top), as if in Pattaya. What are these people thinking?

 

10 hours ago, Teee said:

Everyone should be in lockdown Thais and Farangs.

Yes. Two weeks ago. Or three.

 

10 hours ago, Teee said:

after reading posts over the last 3 odd years most of you are racist living in a country that opened its arms and embraced you.

Live by the rules set or make your way back to where you once come from.

That was the first thing I noticed on this forum after arriving 1+ years ago. And my question was "Why are they here if they dislike it so much?" My own country has significant flaws about which I'm free to gripe and moan. But this is not my country and I'm a guest. I try to keep that in mind. 

[Aussie999]

22 hours ago, Canuck1966 said:

Additional cases falling two days in a row now.

Nothing to see here, somebody must have got a bollocking when it spiked to 180 a few days ago

 

 

Good chance, now that pm has his ultimate (article 44) powers back, and has already declared war on anyone reporting "fake" news, on Covid-19, will be apprehended, we will not see true numbers, not that we believe they have been given any way. Withholding the truth is dangerous, but a megalomania will use his powers for a lot more than the good of the nation. Watch for parliament to be suspended.

[Aussie999]

2 minutes ago, Geeyore said:

 

We've been semi-isolating in BKK, but when I go out for essentials I'm just surprised at the high percentage of farang tourists who are unmasked and rather blase about what's happening here. Yesterday I spotted a Euro lady strutting down Suk unmasked and dressed rather inappropriately (hottie short shorts and halter top), as if in Pattaya. What are these people thinking?

 

Yes. Two weeks ago. Or three.

 

That was the first thing I noticed on this forum after arriving 1+ years ago. And my question was "Why are they here if they dislike it so much?" My own country has significant flaws about which I'm free to gripe and moan. But this is not my country and I'm a guest. I try to keep that in mind. 

If you are a "guest," show me you invitation.

[Aussie999]

56 minutes ago, rtco said:

Couldn't have put it better myself

Learn what "racism" is before commenting.... stating facts is NOT racism.

[diddygq]

22 hours ago, Matzzon said:

I understand that he warns people about a clear and present danger, if we do not take this seriously. That´s really needed, due to that too many morons take this as something insignificant. Some have even gone so far on this forum, as calling the virus a hoax. That´s really falling low in the level of human intelligence. However, I am baffled by this magician of a doctor, and really wonder where he get all his very exact numbers from. It looks like he is trying to pinpoint everything down to the last individual. Maybe they should consider to make an estimation, instead of announcing exact numbers. That would probably make the article and the information more credible.

You might find this video interesting. A doctor from the U.K. breaking down the numbers, very similar to this, and showing how important social distancing is.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6JrkLvsKtw&fbclid=IwAR2YlukSWLeBV7PR2GmmfecewTqk5fgSgItGILruDlZFsJZe71RK_fGomMg

[Matzzon]

18 minutes ago, diddygq said:

You might find this video interesting. A doctor from the U.K. breaking down the numbers, very similar to this, and showing how important social distancing is.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6JrkLvsKtw&fbclid=IwAR2YlukSWLeBV7PR2GmmfecewTqk5fgSgItGILruDlZFsJZe71RK_fGomMg

I do not need that. I know about precautions that must be taken. If I look I will say the same. It+s not possible to make a perfect estimation. That was my point.

As an extra, why would I listen to a doctor from UK instead? Have they managed to contain the spread better than Thailand so far? I assume you are a brit, and understand why you recommend to listen to a Uk doctor instead. I probably feels more close to home. Unfortunately the virus know no boundaries nor borders, and there is no room for individualist from specific countries. Everyone must work together as a team for get the result we all wish for.

I also know that what is happening right now can be compared to a regular outcome of a yearly flu. Out of that reason there is no need for panic. However, if people do not heed a certain call then we do not know what to expect and how wide the damage of the virus outbreak might be.

[diddygq]

17 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

I do not need that. I know about precautions that must be taken. If I look I will say the same. It+s not possible to make a perfect estimation. That was my point.

As an extra, why would I listen to a doctor from UK instead? Have they managed to contain the spread better than Thailand so far? I assume you are a brit, and understand why you recommend to listen to a Uk doctor instead. I probably feels more close to home. Unfortunately the virus know no boundaries nor borders, and there is no room for individualist from specific countries. Everyone must work together as a team for get the result we all wish for.

I also know that what is happening right now can be compared to a regular outcome of a yearly flu. Out of that reason there is no need for panic. However, if people do not heed a certain call then we do not know what to expect and how wide the damage of the virus outbreak might be.

Nope, I'm American but the doctor got the number from the same concept. I guess you didn't watch him break down numbers. Basically you take the infected now use the arnot and exponential numbers to a certain date which you get an exact number. Of course I know it won't be "exact" but he is not a politician. He probably has a better idea of the real infected in Thailand compared to the government. 

Edited March 25, 2020 by diddygq