UK epidemic is slowing and antibody test could be ready in days, top epidemiologist says

[overherebc]

23 hours ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Yes, whereas the socialist government in Spain did so much better. Er, not.

 

Stop politicizing this with your usual anti anything center or right of center criticisms whilst ignoring the reality. It's just rather repetitive.

You can say that again.

Not pointed at you ????

[bristolboy]

On 3/31/2020 at 12:56 PM, Baerboxer said:

 

Yes, whereas the socialist government in Spain did so much better. Er, not.

 

Stop politicizing this with your usual anti anything center or right of center criticisms whilst ignoring the reality. It's just rather repetitive.

But the thing is the Spanish government faced a huge economic hurdle because, as a member of the Eurozone, it was compelled to assume responsibility for the private loans major European banks foolishly made to builders. Which gravely undermined its economy. So it didn't have the means to beef up or even maintain its health system.

Whereas the Tories have consistently underfunded the NHS with consequent loss of a huge amount of capacity. All in the name of reducing debt whilst actually cutting taxes on both corporations and the top 1 percent.

[johng]

3 hours ago, Nigel Garvie said:

The puzzling thing is why the "Next virus" that wipes out humanity, hasn't already arrived

I would think they have some "nasty stuff"  being cooked up in some DNA laboratories for "just in case"   just in case the enemy has some too  M.A.D  !!!!

[jayboy]

On 3/31/2020 at 10:11 AM, Nigel Garvie said:

Tangential to the topic, but just briefly for clarification, you may not have noticed but Corbyn is history. He gave his farewell remarks at his final PMQs a week or so ago. He promised to carry on the good fight, although in what capacity is anybody's guess. The yawn meter went deep into the red as he spoke.

"Millions of people will mark the occasion by standing on their doorsteps at 8pm and applauding the way the battle between the dull one, the northern one and the one who gave Corbyn 10 out of 10 really captured the national mood."

 

Matt Chorley
 

[Basil B]

Quite clearly the experts are in disagreement with the politicians...

 

Reported yesterday, again hardly know what to believe but the new tests would detect active COVID-19 and Antibodies, would be great if the did and clearly distinguished between the 3 states (Has,Had,Not Had), we would know where we are but 1.3 million tests hardly sufficient for a nation of 66 million particularly as many will need retesting a few times. 

 

 

 

   

[vogie]

10 minutes ago, Basil B said:

Quite clearly the experts are in disagreement with the politicians...

 

Reported yesterday, again hardly know what to believe but the new tests would detect active COVID-19 and Antibodies, would be great if the did and clearly distinguished between the 3 states (Has,Had,Not Had), we would know where we are but 1.3 million tests hardly sufficient for a nation of 66 million particularly as many will need retesting a few times. 

 

 

 

   

The new antibodies tests would not detect whether you have covid 19, only if you've had it.

Sometimes it is best to listen to the experts, like Peston should have done.

 

[Logosone]

On 3/31/2020 at 6:47 PM, bristolboy said:

And yet social distancing looks like it's succeeding. Just as it looks like it's succeeding in the USA.

Lol, this is EXACTLY how the end of this pandemic will be sold. 

 

Never mind reality, that the Chinese did a study that tried to ascertain the effect of a social distancing measure but then had to conclude that it was impossible to do so (because several measures were used at the same time and it was not possible to apportion a specific effect to each one).

 

Social distancing is of course not succeeding. The US has tested 1 million people and that is what is helping, to isolate the infected.

 

Equally Boris Johnson got the message now that testing makes the difference and has vowed to ramp up testing to German levels.

 

Yet everyone will remember "social distancing" because that's what the UK focused on (in the initial absence of test kits and hospital beds, ventilators etc) and think this is what defeated the virus. 

 

Obviously it was testing and isolating the infected if this pandemic comes to an end for any other reason but herd immunity, which I strongly doubt.

 

Despite the case number in the UK, the latest study again says millions in the UK are infected. 

 

But sure, social distancing worked. Okay. Lol.

 

 

 

[Chomper Higgot]

7 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Lol, this is EXACTLY how the end of this pandemic will be sold. 

 

Never mind reality, that the Chinese did a study that tried to ascertain the effect of a social distancing measure but then had to conclude that it was impossible to do so (because several measures were used at the same time and it was not possible to apportion a specific effect to each one).

 

Social distancing is of course not succeeding. The US has tested 1 million people and that is what is helping, to isolate the infected.

 

Equally Boris Johnson got the message now that testing makes the difference and has vowed to ramp up testing to German levels.

 

Yet everyone will remember "social distancing" because that's what the UK focused on (in the initial absence of test kits and hospital beds, ventilators etc) and think this is what defeated the virus. 

 

Obviously it was testing and isolating the infected if this pandemic comes to an end for any other reason but herd immunity, which I strongly doubt.

 

Despite the case number in the UK, the latest study again says millions in the UK are infected. 

 

But sure, social distancing worked. Okay. Lol.

 

 

 

Social distancing does work.

The infection of millions in the UK came about because of Johnson's failed experiment in creating herd immunity by allowing the virus to spread unhindered. 

[Chomper Higgot]

The latest prediction is for the death rate in the UK to reach its morbid peak on 12 April puts this earlier claim that the infection rate was slowing into perspective. 

 

Not everyone swallowed the nonsense.  

[Logosone]

24 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Social distancing does work.
 

 

And you know this because you carefully studied the effect of each measure, testing, clinical management, curfew etc , and you were able to apportion a specific number in the reduction of R0 to each one?

 

My, you are mighty  genius. Certainly a lot more successful than the methodical Chinese academics who tried this and honestly said it was not possibly.

 

But of course you have to tell yourselves that social distancing worked. Otherwise you'd have to admit you were led by people who chose the wrong path.

Edited April 4, 2020 by Logosone

[bristolboy]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

Lol, this is EXACTLY how the end of this pandemic will be sold. 

 

Never mind reality, that the Chinese did a study that tried to ascertain the effect of a social distancing measure but then had to conclude that it was impossible to do so (because several measures were used at the same time and it was not possible to apportion a specific effect to each one).

 

Social distancing is of course not succeeding. The US has tested 1 million people and that is what is helping, to isolate the infected.

 

Equally Boris Johnson got the message now that testing makes the difference and has vowed to ramp up testing to German levels.

 

Yet everyone will remember "social distancing" because that's what the UK focused on (in the initial absence of test kits and hospital beds, ventilators etc) and think this is what defeated the virus. 

 

Obviously it was testing and isolating the infected if this pandemic comes to an end for any other reason but herd immunity, which I strongly doubt.

 

Despite the case number in the UK, the latest study again says millions in the UK are infected. 

 

But sure, social distancing worked. Okay. Lol.

 

Ya see, the problem with countries like China is that it's government wants to be the keeper of all the information. And if you release that information without their approval, you're likely to find yourself in a whole lot of trouble.

But in the USA and other reasonably democratic nations that isn't the case. Even private for profit companies can gather and release useful information without seeking the approval of a government apparatchik.

 

Social Distancing May Be Working, New Study Hints

"Social distancing measures such as closing restaurants, bars and other nonessential businesses is slowing the spread of thre coronavirus in the United States, early evidence suggests.
Data show that the number of people with fever that's an early indication of coronavirus infection started falling almost immediately after social distancing measures took effect in some areas, USA Today reported.
The findings are from health technology company Kinsa, which analyzed fever readings from more than 1 million thermometers in use across the U.S."

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200326/social-distancing-may-be-working-new-study-hints

 

That is very powerful data. Especially impressive given its instantaneity. It can actually be seen happening as it happens.

 

And there is lots of new evidence of the more traditional kind emerging. This is just one example:

Social distancing works. The earlier the better, California and Washington data show.

Mandatory social distancing works. The earlier the better, preliminary data from two weeks of stay-at-home orders in California and Washington show...

Compared with the Boston area, which has a more-similar population density, California’s Bay Area has about a third of the of the cases, per capita. The state of Massachusetts ordered people to stay home 8 days ago.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/04/01/lockdown-coronavirus-california-data/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/04/01/lockdown-coronavirus-california-data/

 

[Chomper Higgot]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

 

And you know this because you carefully studied the effect of each measure, testing, clinical management, curfew etc , and you were able to apportion a specific number in the reduction of R0 to each one?

 

My, you are mighty  genius. Certainly a lot more successful than the methodical Chinese academics who tried this and honestly said it was not possibly.

 

But of course you have to tell yourselves that social distancing worked. Otherwise you'd have to admit you were led by people who chose the wrong path.

No I know this because if you don’t get close to some who infected you can’t catch a disease* off them.

 

(* while stupidity often spreads like a disease and is demonstrated to be spread by some on the Internet, it is not a disease - though it does kill many).

[from the home of CC]

On 3/30/2020 at 6:19 PM, Chomper Higgot said:

“Britain, which has the world's fifth largest economy, initially took an approach to containing the spread of the disease that was modest in comparison to European countries such as Italy.”

 

Factually incorrect.

 

The UK Government initially enacted a policy of not intervening in order to build natural immunity (by infection) within the population while claiming to take measures to care for the most vulnerable.

 

Johnson changed course when this madness was rumbled and widely criticized in the press.

that was a money call imo..

[jcsmith]

According to http://worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Yesterday's 684 deaths and 4450 new cases were both the largest seen to date in the UK. The rate of increase is slowing down though.
 

Edited April 4, 2020 by jcsmith

[overherebc]

16 hours ago, jcsmith said:

According to http://worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Yesterday's 684 deaths and 4450 new cases were both the largest seen to date in the UK. The rate of increase is slowing down though.
 

So the way I look at those figures is to work backwards on the reported deaths ( 684 ) and determine when and how they became infected, is that possible? You also have to table ages, and the victims health conditions, eg diabetics, existing serious problems etc.

The number of infections and the number of deaths on a particular day are not related.

If, sadly, there is a high infection rate in a retirement home then it's very likely there will be quite a few deaths involved but they will happen in 6 to 20? days.

If there is a high infection rate on one day in a crowded subway or train among younger fitter people then there will be fewer deaths, per number infected, in 6 to 20? days.

Should we continue to report new infections and deaths each day as though they are related?

Is there a better way?

Edited April 5, 2020 by overherebc

[elliss]

On 3/31/2020 at 7:29 PM, 3NUMBAS said:

china needs to be cut off for good before the next virus kills off humanity for good and nobody survives because its to virulent

 

      Tell that to the Thai Government ...

[Logosone]

On 4/4/2020 at 12:12 PM, bristolboy said:

Ya see, the problem with countries like China is that it's government wants to be the keeper of all the information. And if you release that information without their approval, you're likely to find yourself in a whole lot of trouble.

But in the USA and other reasonably democratic nations that isn't the case. Even private for profit companies can gather and release useful information without seeking the approval of a government apparatchik.

 

Social Distancing May Be Working, New Study Hints

"Social distancing measures such as closing restaurants, bars and other nonessential businesses is slowing the spread of thre coronavirus in the United States, early evidence suggests.
Data show that the number of people with fever that's an early indication of coronavirus infection started falling almost immediately after social distancing measures took effect in some areas, USA Today reported.
The findings are from health technology company Kinsa, which analyzed fever readings from more than 1 million thermometers in use across the U.S."

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200326/social-distancing-may-be-working-new-study-hints

 

That is very powerful data. Especially impressive given its instantaneity. It can actually be seen happening as it happens.

 

And there is lots of new evidence of the more traditional kind emerging. This is just one example:

Social distancing works. The earlier the better, California and Washington data show.

Mandatory social distancing works. The earlier the better, preliminary data from two weeks of stay-at-home orders in California and Washington show...

Compared with the Boston area, which has a more-similar population density, California’s Bay Area has about a third of the of the cases, per capita. The state of Massachusetts ordered people to stay home 8 days ago.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/04/01/lockdown-coronavirus-california-data/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/04/01/lockdown-coronavirus-california-data/

 

No, it's not "powerful data", it's survey by a company trying to sell its thermal scanners which has not been independently reviewed.

 

They just assume every fever is Covid19 related. It's laughable and worthless.

[bristolboy]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

No, it's not "powerful data", it's survey by a company trying to sell its thermal scanners which has not been independently reviewed.

 

They just assume every fever is Covid19 related. It's laughable and worthless.

Nonsense. They don't assume every fever is Covid 19. In fact, you've got it exactly wrong. They're looking to see if there are declines in incidents and levels of fever and how that correlates with various steps taken in different regions to deal with coronavirus. The way you get this kind of data is through very basic statistical analysis. It's a very powerful tool.