Are you really ready for two years of this?

[Saltire]

7 minutes ago, Throatwobbler said:

Yes they had underlying health issues that does not mean they were at deaths door and were going to die that week. Many of the people with underlying health issue had many years let to live. You can live decades with underlying health issues such as diabetes.

   Again your response seems to be based on the fact that you think the ones who died were just about to die anyway so their lives are worthless.

Yes! My insurance company is already telling me that if I need care for contracting the virus, as I have declared pre existing conditions (cardio, diabetes) then they are unlikely to offer me cover.

 

I am pretty healthy even with those conditions (have had already 10 years) and find it hard to accept that something that did not even exist 4 months ago can somehow be linked to any pre-existing condition. I hate all insurace companies.

[Throatwobbler]

13 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Darwin doesn't do any work... so I imagine you mean "the survival of the fittest" which is exactly what this virus is about... culling the herd. 

 

And save for those who die in prison, we can assume that all the others are innocent, never mind their cause of death... 

if some of those that die are those who think they know better than the experts and don’t have to do what the experts say then that will increase the intelligence of the herd.

   What I hope is that these selfish people don’t lead to the deaths of others by either taking up valuable hospital beds or by passing on the disease to people who have been following the advice.

[Enzian]

The state of India with the most cases at present is Maharashtra, where Mumbai is the large city. Present temp 31 C. India has a lot of northern regions where it even snows in the winter; this will be something to follow, but I'm sure we will be hearing of developments.  

[UbonThani]

44 minutes ago, Throatwobbler said:

Your response just seems to be screw those who die. Their lives weren’t worth much anyway. 

 

36 minutes ago, Throatwobbler said:

Yes they had underlying health issues that does not mean they were at deaths door and were going to die that week. Many of the people with underlying health issue had many years let to live. You can live decades with underlying health issues such as diabetes.

   Again your response seems to be based on the fact that you think the ones who died were just about to die anyway so their lives are worthless.

Stop misquoting me. 500k flu deaths a year.

 

Yet millions actually hundreds of millions spread the flu each year and don't care.

 

18m heart disease deaths nobody hardly calls for fast food to be banned.

 

Seems to massive double stds.

 

Die from 101 things who cares

Die from Corona mass panic

[RickTik]

[RickTik]

[Brunolem]

46 minutes ago, Throatwobbler said:

if some of those that die are those who think they know better than the experts and don’t have to do what the experts say then that will increase the intelligence of the herd.

   

But the experts don't even agree between themselves! 

 

There are mostly two kinds of experts, those who have been working in hospitals and research all their lives (like Pr Raoult who is against locking down) and those who have spent a great deal of their lives weaseling in the corridors of power and politics (like Dr Fauci who would like to lock down America until there is zero case). 

 

Personally, I know which ones I trust the most... 

[richard_smith237]

10 minutes ago, UbonThani said:

 

Stop misquoting me. 500k flu deaths a year.

 

Yet millions actually hundreds of millions spread the flu each year and don't care.

 

18m heart disease deaths nobody hardly calls for fast food to be banned.

 

Seems to massive double stds.

 

Die from 101 things who cares

Die from Corona mass panic

 

With any luck by the end of the year SARS-nCoV-2019 will have only contributed to as many deaths as the 500k per year deaths related to Influenza.

 

Without a vaccine and effective treatment the current spread rate and FCR places the numbers at far higher than an annual Influenza mortality rate. 

 

We are 3 months into a Pandemic, the spread of infection is still exponential, the deaths could well enter the millions. When projecting ahead 12 months the numbers are frightening and make the Influenza numbers look small. 

 

 

Your comparisons are interesting: Heart disease; you could add smoking, drinking etc - these are lifestyle choices and within peoples control (to a certain extent). Malaria has been used as a comparison to deaths related to Covid-19, as has Cancer. Malaria is avoidable with medication, the issues with the high Malaria deaths are humanitarian and financial, there is medication we can take to avoid contracting malaria. US$70 billion has been pumped into Cancer, research and is on going, it can’t be stopped but we’re trying, IF Social Distancing would stop cancer, we’d have been doing so for years and the world would be a different place. 

 

There is no known cure for Covid-19 yet. No known effective treatment (drugs) other than palliative treatment with respirators for those severely affected. 

 

At the moment Covid-19 cannot be compared to any known established diseases because Covid-19 is in its infancy. 

Next year, if we have a Vaccine or effective drugs to treat and minimise the impact of Covid-19 then we can relax about it and hopefully compare it to seasonal Influenza or in a best case have medicine which eradicates the impact of Coronaviruses on us all. But, in the mean time ‘great concern’ (not panic) is the correct course of action, because at the moment we don’t know what else to do to prevent the spread of SARS-nCov-2019 other than isolate. 

 

The majority of your '101 ways to die' are probably avoidable - we have no way of avoiding SARS-nCov-2019 unless we take exceptional and draconian measures. 

 

 

On your other notes: Of course, Ban Fast Food, but if you want to take those measures, ban processed sugars in foods, ban alcohol, ban cigarettes - but these are freedoms, people can make an informed choice. 

 

SARS-nCov-2019 is indiscriminate in who it infects - that is the difference and that is why your arguments in your post above (and many others who use similar arguments) are flawed. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Brunolem]

3 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

We are 3 months into a Pandemic, the spread of infection is still exponential, the deaths could well enter the millions. When projecting ahead 12 months the numbers are frightening and make the Influenza numbers look small. 

 

The majority of your '101 ways to die' are probably avoidable - 

At the actual rate of death, which appears to be stable, except maybe in the US, it would take years to reach millions of deaths... but by then we would all be dead from the economic collapse anyway... 

 

Many ways to die are not avoidable, starting with cancer and its 10 million deaths per year, year after year. 

 

If every day, the authorities had the honesty to present their populations comparative numbers, such as:

 

- number of new cases of coronavirus

- number of new cases of cancer

 

- number of deaths from coronavirus

- number of deaths from cancer

 

the panic would evaporate quickly. 

 

But they want panic, which is why they provide very partial information. 

[JackThompson]

On 4/4/2020 at 3:30 AM, Jingthing said:

Expecting a miracle treatment is not realistic. Remember how long that took with HIV?

HIV was a Death Sentence for nearly everyone who got it, and early treatments were not well-tolerated and only somewhat effective. 

This disease has a low mortality rate - declining rapidly, as it is discovered how many are infected w/o symptoms, when widespread testing is done. 

OTOH, HIV was easy to avoid (unless you had hemophilia), whereas this spreads very easily.

 

As well, there is already a known drug combination which has shown efficacy - hydroxychloroquine + azithromycin.  But because they are off-patent, there is not a lot to be gained by large pharmaceuticals.  The testing seems to be dragging on forever - should have taken ~10 days to replicate the French study with a larger group.  In fact, the French have already completed a follow-up study, with excellent results.

 

Given this, the only thing preventing us re-starting economic activity, is mass-production of these drugs.  This would be combined with the isolation of the tiny percentage of the population who cannot use the treatment (some heart-patients, those allergic to them, etc), until other options are available which they can tolerate, or until the virus dies-out from lack of non-immune hosts.

 

[UbonThani]

1 minute ago, JackThompson said:

HIV was a Death Sentence for nearly everyone who got it, and early treatments were not well-tolerated and only somewhat effective. 

This disease has a low mortality rate - declining rapidly, as it is discovered how many are infected w/o symptoms, when widespread testing is done. 

OTOH, HIV was easy to avoid (unless you had hemophilia), whereas this spreads very easily.

 

As well, there is already a known drug combination which has shown efficacy - hydroxychloroquine + azithromycin.  But because they are off-patent, there is not a lot to be gained by large pharmaceuticals.  The testing seems to be dragging on forever - should have taken ~10 days to replicate the French study with a larger group.  In fact, the French have already completed a follow-up study, with excellent results.

 

Given this, the only thing preventing us re-starting economic activity, is mass-production of these drugs.  This would be combined with the isolation of the tiny percentage of the population who cannot use the treatment (some heart-patients, those allergic to them, etc), until other options are available which they can tolerate, or until the virus dies-out from lack of non-immune hosts.

 

Every country does their own trials. By June things will look a whole lot better.

 

Another 2 weeks of lockdowns will lower spread a lot in many countries.

 

Id expect deaths below Swine flu.

[UbonThani]

1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

At the actual rate of death, which appears to be stable, except maybe in the US, it would take years to reach millions of deaths... but by then we would all be dead from the economic collapse anyway... 

 

Many ways to die are not avoidable, starting with cancer and its 10 million deaths per year, year after year. 

 

If every day, the authorities had the honesty to present their populations comparative numbers, such as:

 

- number of new cases of coronavirus

- number of new cases of cancer

 

- number of deaths from coronavirus

- number of deaths from cancer

 

the panic would evaporate quickly. 

 

But they want panic, which is why they provide very partial information. 

They lie. People can google death stats though.

 

 

[WhereIsMyRyeBread]

1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

At the actual rate of death, which appears to be stable, except maybe in the US, it would take years to reach millions of deaths... but by then we would all be dead from the economic collapse anyway... 

 

Many ways to die are not avoidable, starting with cancer and its 10 million deaths per year, year after year. 

 

If every day, the authorities had the honesty to present their populations comparative numbers, such as:

 

- number of new cases of coronavirus

- number of new cases of cancer

 

- number of deaths from coronavirus

- number of deaths from cancer

 

the panic would evaporate quickly. 

 

But they want panic, which is why they provide very partial information. 

It remains unknown how many are infected so the denominator is unknown to establish the actual death rate. 

As you know, cancer is a group of diseases involving abnormal cell growth. It's pointless to compare Cancer with Covid.

 

If you wash your hands you can actually wash the virus away before you inhale it, that's what they're trying to convey. Hence it's time sensitive info.

Last time I checked you can't wash away a cancer tumour. What's the point you're to make? Anything that begins with the letter C that can kill you?

 

 

 

 

[Rancid]

If you look at the "flattening the curve" charts, the get it over and done with curve is high but over quickly. The alternative has less people at first but lasts much longer, assuming no vaccine the death rate will be similar, except the economies are in shatters. Not for for the media heads, rich and celebrities beaming out encouragement videos from their mansions, but for the rest of us.

 

For those that think a destroyed economy is a fair price, what about the inevitable increased domestic violence, drug and alcohol abuse, homeless, crime, suicides. Why are the inevitable deaths from all this acceptable?

 

How long till we are all monitored 24/7 like the Chinese sheep, for our protection of course. What about cash, dangerous for virus transmission, that will have to go as well. My thoughts will change nothing, but am suspicious we are heading to a bad place, and corona is the excuse to get us there.

[leggo]

I'm in Vietnam right now where there are only 240 cases (85) recovered for a population of 95 million.The govt here has been extremely rigorous in quarantining, tracing, closing frontiers and closing it's airports and we feel pretty safe and confident that we will survive . To date no deaths. The government here was not persuaded to allow tourism to dictate it's policies which has been the case elsewhere!!!!  If you put money before health your country  will pay a heavy price. 

[richard_smith237]

22 minutes ago, leggo said:

I'm in Vietnam right now where there are only 240 cases (85) recovered for a population of 95 million.The govt here has been extremely rigorous in quarantining, tracing, closing frontiers and closing it's airports and we feel pretty safe and confident that we will survive . To date no deaths. The government here was not persuaded to allow tourism to dictate it's policies which has been the case elsewhere!!!!  If you put money before health your country  will pay a heavy price. 

Good points. But, do you believe the numbers of a country which was so close to China?

 

I find there to be a correlation between the numbers reported and the manner in which a government governs....  

 

North Korea is doing extremely well with no cases !  

 

I find it very hard to trust the numbers presented by a number of countries. It's really difficult to know, but given the amount of time ’some’ countries have had this virus within their borders they are now statistical outliers where the spread of Covid-19 is concerned. 

 

Many extremely poor nations also have extremely low numbers, has no one travelled there, is there just no spread of Covid-19 in these countries or is there simply no network to test and report properly. 

 

Mongolia has 14 cases !!! Would you look at Mauritania? !!! it could be one thing that protected these places is that no one wanted to travel there and they were spared... Or, they are just not reporting the country.s

 

 

 

 

[UbonThani]

1 hour ago, WhereIsMyRyeBread said:

It remains unknown how many are infected so the denominator is unknown to establish the actual death rate. 

As you know, cancer is a group of diseases involving abnormal cell growth. It's pointless to compare Cancer with Covid.

 

If you wash your hands you can actually wash the virus away before you inhale it, that's what they're trying to convey. Hence it's time sensitive info.

Last time I checked you can't wash away a cancer tumour. What's the point you're to make? Anything that begins with the letter C that can kill you?

 

 

 

 

The point is obvious. No mass panic. Social media has ruined the world.

[WhereIsMyRyeBread]

24 minutes ago, Rancid said:

How long till we are all monitored 24/7 like the Chinese sheep, for our protection of course. What about cash, dangerous for virus transmission, that will have to go as well. My thoughts will change nothing, but am suspicious we are heading to a bad place, and corona is the excuse to get us there.

The RFID chipping will come in due course.  It just have to be rolled out very gently in iterations or it will be rejected by mainstream if done too quickly.

 

[Brunolem]

19 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

Good points. But, do you believe the numbers of a country which was so close to China?

 

I find there to be a correlation between the numbers reported and the manner in which a government governs....  

 

North Korea is doing extremely well with no cases !  

 

I find it very hard to trust the numbers presented by a number of countries. It's really difficult to know, but given the amount of time ’some’ countries have had this virus within their borders they are now statistical outliers where the spread of Covid-19 is concerned. 

 

Many extremely poor nations also have extremely low numbers, has no one travelled there, is there just no spread of Covid-19 in these countries or is there simply no network to test and report properly. 

 

Mongolia has 14 cases !!! Would you look at Mauritania? !!! it could be one thing that protected these places is that no one wanted to travel there and they were spared... Or, they are just not reporting the country.s

 

 

 

 

Well...all the above would translate as "developing countries = liars" and "developed countries = truthtellers"...which is very unlikely.

 

Yes, it is likely that poorer countries test less than the wealthier ones, but the deaths are the deaths.

 

There is no need of money or advanced technology to count the deaths, and obviously the countries of ASEAN, just to consider this part of the world, are not piling up hundreds of new dead every day.

 

On the other side, it has been explained how Italy is "boosting" its death toll, probably along with Spain and France, by using a rather debatable way of counting its deaths.

[WhereIsMyRyeBread]

1 minute ago, Brunolem said:

North Korea is doing extremely well with no cases !  

That's due to the embodiment of Kim Il-sung's wisdom.

[Brewster67]

On 4/4/2020 at 5:32 AM, cmarshall said:

I think by the end of the year people are going to go back to work even if the pandemic is not over out of economic necessity.  The govt is not going to make everyone whole.

Most jobs will not exist by the end of the month let alone the end of the year.

 

[richard_smith237]

11 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Well...all the above would translate as "developing countries = liars" and "developed countries = truthtellers"...which is very unlikely.

 

Yes, it is likely that poorer countries test less than the wealthier ones, but the deaths are the deaths.

 

There is no need of money or advanced technology to count the deaths, and obviously the countries of ASEAN, just to consider this part of the world, are not piling up hundreds of new dead every day.

 

On the other side, it has been explained how Italy is "boosting" its death toll, probably along with Spain and France, by using a rather debatable way of counting its deaths.

Interesting...  I would argue that the statistics presented my many developing countries are questionable at the best of times. i.e. Road Fatalities reported by Thailand vs WHO’s figure. 

 

The actual ‘numbers of deaths’ are difficult to fudge, however, in comparison:

About 7.6 ppl per 1000 die each year in Thailand - thats a total of ±522,000 people each year. 

1422 people per day.

 

Thailand is claiming 2168 cases of Covid-19 with 23 deaths. 

Hypothetical. 

IF Covid-19 has a CFR of 1.06% (Thailands FCR) and is under reporting their numbers by a factor of x10 i.e.  something closer to 200,000 cases - we be looking at 2120 deaths. Averaged out over the last month thats 70 deaths per day. 

About the same as the Road deaths and compared to 1422 people per day who die anyway, or in addition to the 1422 people die anyway, would we really notice it unless all the numbers were being collated accurately and then identified as a statistical outlier?

 

Based on the above hypothetical situation its not really possible to tell if the numbers for these countries is real or not because we are below the ‘observational tipping point’ at which time it would be impossible to avoid the numbers... 

 

Food for thought anyway... 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Brunolem]

33 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

About the same as the Road deaths and compared to 1422 people per day who die anyway, or in addition to the 1422 people die anyway, would we really notice it unless all the numbers were being collated accurately and then identified as a statistical outlier?

 

We, outsiders, would not notice, but the concerned families would, and if there is something that is working in Thailand, it is the high speed "smoke signals".

 

People have family members everywhere, and in a village like the one where I live, the extended families cover the whole country.

 

Then, each member has his connections, and so on.

 

I am always amazed by the quantity of information constantly reaching the village, without me seeing or hearing anything.

 

And death is top priority information.

 

I can't imagine how it would be possible to hide hundreds of deaths without having multiple leaks...that would require the complicity of all the hospitals and all their staff, without one of them going, anonymously, on the internet to spill the beans...

[uhuh]

9 hours ago, JackThompson said:

 

As well, there is already a known drug combination which has shown efficacy - hydroxychloroquine + azithromycin.  But because they are off-patent, there is not a lot to be gained by large pharmaceuticals.  The testing seems to be dragging on forever - should have taken ~10 days to replicate the French study with a larger group.  In fact, the French have already completed a follow-up study, with excellent results.

 

Three Marseille study was not randomized. Si the results are useless.  We don't know (from this study) whether there is some efficacy or not.

 

The results of the French follow-up study were disappointing. 

Another - not French - study showed moderate efficacy. This was a methodically sound study. 

[scorecard]

On 4/4/2020 at 7:02 PM, jak2002003 said:

 

 

 

 

Just hope that no one steals your chickens, and the water supply will still run to the rice fields (who will fix any broken pumps / pipes for example). 

 

Also, your house may be targeted because you are a farang and some of the villagers think you must have lots of money or valuable things stocked up in your house.

 

Don't forget all the family and people returning to your village to thier family homes as they are all out of work.  How is everyone there going to have money for food or essentials after a few months of lock down or curfew?   

 

It might look rosy for you now... but if this gets dragged out for many months, out in the sticks, there is less police presence, neighbours are not as close if you need help or assistance in an emergency, and services such as electricity and water will be on lower priority if things break out there, rather than in a more heavily populated area.  

 

 

 

 

 And many other countries in the same situation.

[HauptmannUK]

[thaibeachlovers]

On 4/5/2020 at 2:22 AM, Grumpy John said:

Just on the deaths. Every day the number of dead grow which doesn't seem to worry some people.   While it's numbers listed in a news post it doesn't really matter

....until of course it's someone close to them....or maybe it is them....then, I am guessing, in the after life they can tell the other spirits how unimportant the numbers listed really are.  Every life lost is a d@mn shame.

 

If every day we were informed of how many people died the previous day from natural ( health issues ) causes and accidents, including motor accidents etc, around the world, the current toll from Corona might seem less threatening.

[thaibeachlovers]

10 hours ago, Brewster67 said:

Most jobs will not exist by the end of the month let alone the end of the year.

 

I am far, far more worried about the man made catastrophe that is probably going to occur than I am about the virus.

The vast majority will either ( on current information ) not become sick at all, or will get over the symptoms, but if the economy is gone, society will not be far behind, IMO. To save the lives of some people with health problems that would might kill them anyway, governments are actively working to render millions unemployed, with all the horrendous consequences of that, IMO.

 

Without a vaccine, and no responsible expert I've heard is saying one will be ready in less than a year, every time we come out of lockdown the virus might start again. It only takes one symptom less infected traveler entering the country to start it over- it will be interesting to see what happens in China which does seem to be trying to go back to "normal".

[thaibeachlovers]

12 hours ago, leggo said:

I'm in Vietnam right now where there are only 240 cases (85) recovered for a population of 95 million.The govt here has been extremely rigorous in quarantining, tracing, closing frontiers and closing it's airports and we feel pretty safe and confident that we will survive . To date no deaths. The government here was not persuaded to allow tourism to dictate it's policies which has been the case elsewhere!!!!  If you put money before health your country  will pay a heavy price. 

If citizens have no money, your country will pay a heavy price.

[Kadilo]

2 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I am far, far more worried about the man made catastrophe that is probably going to occur than I am about the virus.

The vast majority will either ( on current information ) not become sick at all, or will get over the symptoms, but if the economy is gone, society will not be far behind, IMO. To save the lives of some people with health problems that would might kill them anyway, governments are actively working to render millions unemployed, with all the horrendous consequences of that, IMO.

 

Without a vaccine, and no responsible expert I've heard is saying one will be ready in less than a year, every time we come out of lockdown the virus might start again. It only takes one symptom less infected traveler entering the country to start it over- it will be interesting to see what happens in China which does seem to be trying to go back to "normal".

The UK government were hinting today at even more stricter controls such as no outdoor exercise, should people  not comply as I think they now realise this flattening is going to take a lot longer than anticipated  Also they are worried this second wave could occur if they come out of lockdown too soon.