Canada expects coronavirus deaths to soar; job losses hit one million

[webfact]

Canada expects coronavirus deaths to soar; job losses hit one million

By David Ljunggren and Kelsey Johnson

 

Two people walk by the Etobicoke General Hospital drive-thru COVID-19 assessment centre as the number of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases continue to grow, in Toronto, Ontario, Canada April 9, 2020. REUTERS/Carlos Osorio

 

OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canada's coronavirus death toll is set to soar from more than 500 currently to as high as 22,000 by the end of the pandemic, health officials said on Thursday, while the economy lost a record 1 million jobs last month.

 

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said the country would not return to normal until a vaccine is developed, which could be as long as 18 months.

 

Health officials said the two most likely scenarios showed between 11,000 and 22,000 people would die. The total number of positive diagnoses of COVID-19, the respiratory illness caused by the novel coronavirus, ranged from 934,000 to 1.9 million.

 

They said they expected between 500 and 700 people in Canada to die from the coronavirus by April 16. There have been nearly 21,000 positive diagnoses so far.

 

Chief public health officer Theresa Tam said it was crucial that people continued to stay at home as much as possible.

 

"While some of the numbers released today may seem stark, Canada's modeling demonstrates that the country still has an opportunity to control the epidemic," she told a briefing.

 

Howard Njoo, Tam's deputy, said if all went well, the first wave of the outbreak could end by July or August. But he emphasized there would be subsequent smaller waves.

 

Local governments across Canada have ordered non-essential businesses shut to combat the spread, throwing millions out of work.

 

Canada lost a record-breaking 1 million jobs in March while the unemployment rate soared to 7.8%, Statistics Canada said, adding that the figures did not reflect the real toll.

 

"This was about as bad as it could be," said Derek Holt, vice president of capital markets economics at Scotiabank.

 

More than 5 million Canadians have applied for all forms of federal emergency unemployment help since March 15, government data showed, suggesting the real jobless rate is closer to 25%.

 

Energy is among the hardest-hit sectors, as the pandemic cuts oil demand. OPEC and allies agreed to cut output by 10 million barrels per day, and Alberta's premier said his province had not been asked to contribute to the curtailments.

 

Trudeau told reporters the country was "at a fork in the road between the best and the worse possible outcomes," predicting that once the first wave was over, the economy could partially be reopened.

 

"Normality as it was before will not come back full on until we get a vaccine for this and ... that could be a very long way off."

 

The Liberal government has announced a range of measures to help businesses totaling around C$110 billion ($78.3 billion) in direct spending, or 5% of gross domestic product.

 

Trudeau's government recalled the House of Commons to meet on Saturday and vote in limited numbers on measures including a wage subsidy worth C$73 billion to soften the economic blow.

 

Canada's independent parliamentary budget officer predicted the budget deficit would balloon to C$184.2 billion in the 2020-2021 fiscal year from C$27.4 billion in the 2019‑2020 fiscal year.

 

(Reporting by David Ljunggren and Kelsey Johnson; additional reporting by Rod Nickel; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama, Jonathan Oatis, Paul Simao, Dan Grebler and Cynthia Osterman)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-04-10

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[kevin612]

This is a global impact or crisis,  many countries are suffering financially.

[Kaoboi Bebobp]

I'm Canadian and simply don't believe the federal prediction models. They are wildly inaccurate and do nothing to keep people informed of the facts.

 

The much lauded Public Health Chief in the province of British Columbia, where cases are falling rapidly as they followed the correct approach right from the start, says BC does not do modelling because they are useless. Instead: 

 

Quote

"Our modelling is about what we need to prepare for. As you can see, deaths are not something that can be predicted. It depends on how your outbreak evolves."

 

During her daily news briefings, [Dr. Bonnie] Henry has repeatedly used the phrase "all models are wrong, but some are useful" to describe how the public should view any projections or estimates for COVID-19.

 

And the clincher:

 

Quote

"If you look at ours, for example, where we have a lot of long-term care outbreaks, we have a high proportion of deaths in those outbreaks. It doesn't reflect the general transmission of this virus in our community."

 

 

 

[Tug]

Good luck Canada hoping and praying for the best for you

[blazes]

#3 is correct.  Canadians in October re-elected an ignoramus to lead the country (again).

 

They are now paying a very high price for that electoral decision.

[DoctorG]

Although I mostly live in Australia I have spent quite some time in Canada and see many similarities between the two.

I am trying to understand why Canada, with 1.5 times the OZ population (25/37), has 10 times the death rate(50/500).

Any ideas?

[blazes]

9 minutes ago, DoctorG said:

Although I mostly live in Australia I have spent quite some time in Canada and see many similarities between the two.

I am trying to understand why Canada, with 1.5 times the OZ population (25/37), has 10 times the death rate(50/500).

Any ideas?

Climate?  virus seems to prefer colder climates....

 

Too many Iranian-, French-, and Italian-Canadians? Trudeau....

Edited April 10, 2020 by blazes

[DoctorG]

2 minutes ago, blazes said:

Climate?  virus seems to prefer colder climates....

 

Too many Iranian-, French-, and Italian-Canadians? Trudeau....

You could be right about the climate aspect. OZ is just coming out of summer so our winter could be interesting. Hopefully our other measures will have controlled this before winter sets in, although it doesn't really get cold in Brisbane. ????

[Mac98]

13 minutes ago, DoctorG said:

Although I mostly live in Australia I have spent quite some time in Canada and see many similarities between the two.

I am trying to understand why Canada, with 1.5 times the OZ population (25/37), has 10 times the death rate(50/500).

Any ideas?

Bad lungs from sawdust in all those lumberjacks? Quebec smokers? Actually an older population might be it. 

[DoctorG]

12 minutes ago, Mac98 said:

Bad lungs from sawdust in all those lumberjacks? Quebec smokers? Actually an older population might be it. 

Median age AU 37.9, CA 41.1. I do not know if that is significant or not. Maybe. Thanks for playing. ????

[natway09]

Good qusstion.

Thailand have hosted tens of millions of Chinese up until airport closure  & border 2 countries that border China  & yet overall is showing very small death rates.

Why ? 

 

[Stargeezr]

Canada numbere are up because of some people going to work while

infected, but feeling okay. Other reasons are because in the long care

places conditions are worse than the owners are admitting and some whistle

blower workers are exposing the truth about. The cold climate may be a factor.

Even the people who visited the centers earlier, before getting locked out are

factors. Who knows what else the causes may be, I am just glad that I do not

have to live in one of these centers. Good luck to all, this situation is far from

over and 2020 may well be named, year of Covid.

Geezer

[MickGC]

14 hours ago, DoctorG said:

Although I mostly live in Australia I have spent quite some time in Canada and see many similarities between the two.

I am trying to understand why Canada, with 1.5 times the OZ population (25/37), has 10 times the death rate(50/500).

Any ideas?

A common border with the USA would be a big factor. Australia has no such borders.

[Ron jeremy]

I live in a small northern community, our first outbreaks were from snowbirds returning from Florida. People just don't seem to get it here, still many acting like nothing is wrong. Allowing people to travel home, before quarantine,flights should have landed at a military base or such, not in a big city, then onwards with other flights to a final destination. far too lax at the border upon flying in, many border security without masks gloves, handing out quarantine literature, flight attendants without any PPE, people on spring break were partying and doing as they pleased. Porous border with the US.

on a positive note, people affected by the virus, and businesses have been compensated quickly.

just called in my CERF, corona emergency relief fund, cheque arrived in 3 days, $2000 for first month, 3 more to follow.

not sure if other countries received anything so quickly?????

things could have been handled much better, but many countries are worse. 

[pegman]

1 hour ago, Ron jeremy said:

I live in a small northern community, our first outbreaks were from snowbirds returning from Florida. People just don't seem to get it here, still many acting like nothing is wrong. Allowing people to travel home, before quarantine,flights should have landed at a military base or such, not in a big city, then onwards with other flights to a final destination. far too lax at the border upon flying in, many border security without masks gloves, handing out quarantine literature, flight attendants without any PPE, people on spring break were partying and doing as they pleased. Porous border with the US.

on a positive note, people affected by the virus, and businesses have been compensated quickly.

just called in my CERF, corona emergency relief fund, cheque arrived in 3 days, $2000 for first month, 3 more to follow.

not sure if other countries received anything so quickly?????

things could have been handled much better, but many countries are worse. 

I understand your feelings but in a single week in March 1 million Canadians returned from out of country. Out of a population of 37 million. Outside of instructing them to stay home for 14 days, which was done, I don't think we had the capacity to do much more.

[scubascuba3]

I'm wondering if there is a link between the amount people talk\touchy feely and how bad the infection rates are. Italian, French, Spain, US, Canadian. Less spread in Asian countries who seem comfortable wearing masks and less touching. Scandinavian countries also seem more placid. Hard to say this politely without people taking offence

[pegman]

15 hours ago, DoctorG said:

Although I mostly live in Australia I have spent quite some time in Canada and see many similarities between the two.

I am trying to understand why Canada, with 1.5 times the OZ population (25/37), has 10 times the death rate(50/500).

Any ideas?

The likely reason is that Canada shares the longest border in the world with the most infected country in the world. A majority of cases in Canada are being traced to travel to the USA. In early March 1 million Canadians traveled home from out of country in a single week. Early cases were travellers from China and Iran.

 

Most Canadians are satisfied with how the pandemic is being handled by our governments. Trudeau's poll approval for dealing with the pandemic is 74%. Provincial premiers range from 97% (Quebec)  to the mid 60's% (State of Alberta). My political bent is well left of the Conservative Party provincial or federal Liberal Party but I'm very happy with how they have reacted to the pandemic. 

 

Our first cases hit the same time as in the USA. While Trump was calling it a political hoax provinces like mine very quickly set up testing sites. As a result of the quick action Canada has a death rate of  15 per million while in the States it's 57 per million. That's nearly a 4-1 ratio. Another thing that can't be discounted is citizens holding each other to account. God help you if you don't self isolate after travel. Social media will take zero pity on you. 

[cheapcanuck]

On 4/10/2020 at 5:04 PM, DoctorG said:

Although I mostly live in Australia I have spent quite some time in Canada and see many similarities between the two.

I am trying to understand why Canada, with 1.5 times the OZ population (25/37), has 10 times the death rate(50/500).

Any ideas?

Shared border with USA. Australia is an island.