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Expert offers roadmap to reopen Thai cities

By The Nation

 

A girl lies across seats at the almost deserted Suvarnabhumi Airport on April 9 after the government banned flight arrivals from April 7-18. NationPhoto/Supakit Khumkun

 

Gradually reopening cities may be the best option to contain the spread of Covid-19 while allowing some businesses to restart, an economist at the Thailand Development Research Institute TDRI said.

 

Somchai Jitsuchon, research director at TDRI, an independent think-tank, is pondering the resumption of city life when the nationwide curfew and lockdown ends on April 30.

 

He said many people are sceptical that cities will return to full functioning after the month of lockdown, as it may take longer to get the Covid-19 pandemic under control.

 

Lockdown is a tool to enforce social distancing, but there are other measures being applied that are not mandatory, Somchai explained. These are divided into three groups: 

 

First, educating people about preventing contagion by washing hands frequently, wearing face masks, and staying 2 metres apart. Second, corporates and organisations screening for body temperature and mask-wearing on entry to their buildings or offices. And third, government testing asymptomatic people and arranging quarantine at home or elsewhere for risk groups.

 

In January China imposed drastic measures to shutdown Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak. Three months later, the Chinese government has started to reopen the city.

 

Meanwhile South Korea, Taiwan and Japan have not imposed drastic lockdowns, yet have succeeded in slowing the rate of new Covid-19 infections.

 

South Korea cut the rate to only 1 per cent after its total cases reached 10,000 in early April. This better than the United States or countries in Europe, despite South Korea not imposing the severe lockdowns seen in Italy. New cases in Italy rose15-20 per cent after reaching the 10,000 level, although that rate finally slowed to 3-4 per cent when cases totalled 100,000.

 

Taiwan had 376 cases as of April 7, or only 16 infections per 1 million population – half Thailand’s infection rate of 32 per million. Although it discovered its first case only one week later than Thailand, Taiwan’s infection rate has been much slower since total cases reached 100.

 

Taiwan is only testing about 1,500 people per million people, or about one-sixth of South Korea’s testing rate. Taiwan’s outstanding results derive instead from tracking risk groups and applying strict quarantine.

 

However, we must be cautious about interpreting these numbers as meaning that if we apply only the third set of measures mentioned above – widespread testing and quarantine – then we can relax all other restrictions significantly. There are other factors involved, including people’s hygiene awareness and cooperation. The measures introduced by corporates and other organisations could also become game-changers, said Somchai.

 

Japan may also offer lessons, since its relatively slow infection rate meant it took 66 days before total cases reached the 1,000 threshold. Japan tested a small number of people for virus – 300 per million – or one-fifth of Taiwan’s test rate and one-30th of South Korea’s. Japan has not imposed city lockdown, but it has likely done better because Japanese practise social distancing and have a culture of cleanliness.

 

Somchai suggests that countries need to apply a range of different measures which also meet their own specific socio-economic context.

 

For Thailand, people should be educated on what preventive measures to take in various situations – in their own homes , dormitories, condominiums, fresh markets, and mini-marts. They should travel by ordinary, rather than air-con, buses in order to reduce risks of coming into contact with the virus.

 

People in very corner of society should be educated so that they apply preventive behaviour voluntarily.

 

At the same time, the government has to up its efforts in virus testing, tracing-and-tracking and quarantine in order to protect healthy people and prevent infectious people spreading the virus. Signs suggest that Thailand’s virus-testing capacity has increased rapidly, although it is still not on par with South Korea and Germany, said Somchai.

 

Thailand needs to do more on tracing, tracking and quarantine by, for example, using tele-medicine so that a small number of doctors can screen large numbers of people for virus testing and quarantine. Somchai suggests gradually reopening cities but with three considerations. The first thing to consider is places with high risk of contagion by their nature. Second, are there measures to reduce risks without too much cost? Third, if proper measures remain in place, how soon can economic activities resume. Authorities have to take into account both disease control and economic cost, he added.

 

High-risk venues where air circulation is poor, such as boxing stadiums and entertainment venues, should remain closed after April 30. These potential virus hotspots also include pubs, bars, concerts, movie theatres, snooker club and gambling dens. 

 

Different measures should be applied to public institutions such as schools, universities, museums and libraries, as well as small, medium and large businesses.

 

In public institutions, the government must impose preventive measures such as barring entry to Covid cases, wearing face masks, social distancing seating arrangements, and frequent hand-washing.

 

For large businesses, the Thai Chamber of Commerce or Federation of Thai Industries may introduce measures. For example, mandatory temperature-taking and mask-wearing for shoppers in department stores, while providing hand gel dispensers every 20 metres in shopping areas and enforcing 1.5-metre social distancing.

 

Small businesses such as hairdressers, beauty salons and small restaurants may not have the capacity or knowledge to handle reopening. They may have to consult universities, foundations, or research centres. In China, small restaurants have arranged panels to separate tables.

 

All risk reducing measures should be clearly announced and strictly enforced by the government, with penalties for violators. The government could launch pilot projects for two weeks after April 30, with trials runs in Bangkok or certain provinces so as to compare easing measures to find the best options. The government may then reimpose lockdowns according to its assessment of the Covid-19 situation in different locations. Results of the trials will indicate whether we can go ahead with lockdown easing, or what restrictive measures needed to be adjusted, Somcha said.

 

He concluded that these are primary proposals, and that people should also participate in introducing proper measures for the reopening of cities. The resumption of normal life should be done gradually in order to contain the spread of virus but at the same time resume some economic activities. 

 

“The most important thing is to ease hardships being suffered by the poor, because this would lower the government budget to cushion the impacts of the virus,” he said.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30385740

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-04-10

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[keith101]

Why does an economist think he knows better than medical experts , all he seems concerned with is money and not so much the health and well being of the people .

[cornishcarlos]

9 minutes ago, keith101 said:

Why does an economist think he knows better than medical experts , all he seems concerned with is money and not so much the health and well being of the people .

 

Not just him, I think the majority of the world that has been put into forced lock down will be itching to get back to work/business... There will come a time when economic necessity, out weighs the  health risks !! 

[BobbyL]

A slow removal of the emergency decree would make sense. I definitely imagine bars and clubs will remain closed, but you've got to think that they will gradually reopen shopping malls, restaurants with less seating, office buildings etc next month if the situation continues to improve. 

[Thailand]

Spain is already talking about some businesses reopening!

[dinsdale]

53 minutes ago, keith101 said:

Why does an economist think he knows better than medical experts , all he seems concerned with is money and not so much the health and well being of the people .

He seems to know more than Team Thailand. There is something though. There is no mention of banning alcohol. Seems like he knows a lot more than the idiots running the show. A lot of common sense in what he says unlike the complete mental cases who have banned alcohol. Sorry but you can no longer drink alcohol as this will help stop the spread of the CCP virus. I'll tell you one thing. Homemade laokhao is back on the menu.

[seeyoujimmy]

Educate Thais. ???? I will never get out of this house.

[JAG]

Oh dear - a "road map". The last one took over four years to work through, and at the end of the process nothing much had changed!

[Sharp]

If anyone here doesn't think 'herd' immunity is being gained by default at the moment is kidding themselves ,

 

The virus has been in Thailand since DEC and I don't believe for one minute people haven't had it and got over it .

 

 

[Assurancetourix]

2 hours ago, keith101 said:

Why does an economist think he knows better than medical experts , all he seems concerned with is money and not so much the health and well being of the people .

 

Simply because he is right; everything he says is and has been verified;
countries that do not confine their inhabitants are doing well and above all will be doing much faster than the others.
The economies of countries where people are confined will find it very difficult to restart their factories.
Anyway, it is proven that 98% of infected people will not even realize it and on the 2% remaining the vast majority of those who will die are elderly to very elderly who already have 1 to 3 major problems in health ..
People who have been retired for many years.

[sjaak327]

3 hours ago, keith101 said:

Why does an economist think he knows better than medical experts , all he seems concerned with is money and not so much the health and well being of the people .

The economist is just being practical. Because the longer this takes, the more chance there will be that more people will die of other reasons then the virus. Especially here, where handouts are being offered, but very little people are actually elligble. What are these people supposed to be doing, die from hunger ? 

 

It's easy to scream stay at home from your ivory tower, but many many people have to make a living to make ends meet. 

Edited April 10, 2020 by sjaak327

[Queenslander]

17 hours ago, keith101 said:

Why does an economist think he knows better than medical experts , all he seems concerned with is money and not so much the health and well being of the people .

I wonder if you would be so indignant if your income was stopped. Ivory towers syndrome. 

Many people rely on their daily,  weekly,  monthly income the lack of which has not only economic but social and psychological consequences, leading possibly to depression, anxiety,  death. 

Unfortunately the people making the decisions are, possibly like you, not affected by the ramifications of lack of finances. 

[DoctorG]

4 minutes ago, Queenslander said:

I wonder if you would be so indignant if your income was stopped. Ivory towers syndrome. 

Many people rely on their daily,  weekly,  monthly income the lack of which has not only economic but social and psychological consequences, leading possibly to depression, anxiety,  death. 

Unfortunately the people making the decisions are, possibly like you, not affected by the ramifications of lack of finances. 

I do not disagree with what you wrote but I gave you the "like" for the State of Origin shirt ????

Hopefully we will be getting more games soon.

[rumak]

GOD !   Can we please just stop using the word EXPERT  in every discussion.  Driving me crazy.

 

How about    " here's what an expert   another guy has to say. "   There, much better

[Sharp]

What we do know is 80% will not even experience symptoms so let the work!!!

 

10 -15 % will get ill and recover ( Take sick leave )then can go back to work

 

Keep the hospitals for the patients that get extremely ill ,old ,pre existing etc.

 

The aftermath is going to be way worse than the virus  if the economy doesn't restart asap.

 

Edited April 11, 2020 by Sharp

[tjo o tjim]

Herd immunity is unlikely to occur based on some studies on the antibody levels in recovered individuals.  

 

The reality is this will come in waves, and keep coming, so we need to be able to take logical steps to manage it.  In the US, this means increasing airborne infection isolation room count along with ICU beds...  I am a little surprised/concerned by the delta in infection rates in the US and most other countries.  It is clear that testing is not happening at sufficient levels in many places, but there is more to it than that.

 

May we learn from this one...

[TheFishman1]

Thailand  has an Unbelievable amount of experts don’t theyTIT

[248900_1469958220]

On top of the estimated 80% that are getting 'mild' illness there are a hidden many that dont show any symptoms. 

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/09/many-people-may-already-have-immunity-coronavirus-german-study/

 

 

Edited April 11, 2020 by metisdead
Video from an unapproved YouTube source has been removed.

[Tounge Thaied]

And... just like that, no more emergency. 

[donnacha]

From the start, every country should have moved ALL citizens likely to be vulnerable to secure accommodation, away from the younger members of their families. They should be given free TVs, exercise bikes, all the food they want delivered, and free iPads to maintain Facetime or Skype contact with their families and friends. No physical visits allowed, for the protection of the vulnerable.

Meanwhile, allow the rest of society to keep working or going to school.

It would have been a lot cheaper and saved more lives if we had done this properly from the start.

 

[Sharp]

34 minutes ago, donnacha said:

From the start, every country should have moved ALL citizens likely to be vulnerable to secure accommodation, away from the younger members of their families. They should be given free TVs, exercise bikes, all the food they want delivered, and free iPads to maintain Facetime or Skype contact with their families and friends. No physical visits allowed, for the protection of the vulnerable.

Meanwhile, allow the rest of society to keep working or going to school.

It would have been a lot cheaper and saved more lives if we had done this properly from the start.

 

Bingo!!

Someone with a level headed approach!

[hotchilli]

19 hours ago, keith101 said:

Why does an economist think he knows better than medical experts , all he seems concerned with is money and not so much the health and well being of the people .

Because he's an economist, not a medical expert, you answered your own question.

[dinsdale]

17 hours ago, Assurancetourix said:

 

Simply because he is right; everything he says is and has been verified;
countries that do not confine their inhabitants are doing well and above all will be doing much faster than the others.
The economies of countries where people are confined will find it very difficult to restart their factories.
Anyway, it is proven that 98% of infected people will not even realize it and on the 2% remaining the vast majority of those who will die are elderly to very elderly who already have 1 to 3 major problems in health ..
People who have been retired for many years.

Well put. Now back it up with some data.

[Assurancetourix]

1 minute ago, dinsdale said:

Well put. Now back it up with some data.

What I expect;
but we will only have this data long after the end of this pandemic;
it remains to be seen whether we will have the actual figures or those obligatorily offered by the various governments.

[grumpy 4680]

        All these experts are going to get a bite in the b*m if South Korea is anything to go by, latest reports suggest 91 former CV patients have been diagnosed again with the virus, so its not going away yet.

[dinsdale]

Just now, Assurancetourix said:

What I expect;
but we will only have this data long after the end of this pandemic;
it remains to be seen whether we will have the actual figures or those obligatorily offered by the various governments.

 

This is for Thailand as of April 3.

Classification		Cases		Deaths		Lethality (%)
		n	(%)	n	(%)
Gender	Male	1074	(54.30)	17	89.47	1.58
	Female	827	(41.81)	2	10.53	0.24
	Unknown or Awaiting Confirmation	77	(3.89)	-	-	-
Age	0-10	27	(1.37)	0	(0)	(0)
	11-20	49	(2.48)	0	(0)	(0)
	21-30	484	(24.47)	0	(0)	(0)
	31-40	462	(23.36)	1	5.26	0.22
	41-50	349	(17.64)	2	10.52	0.57
	51-60	256	(12.94)	8	42.11	3.13
	61-70	144	(7.28)	1	5.26	0.69
	71-80	54	(2.73)	5	26.32	9.26
	81 or above	11	(0.56)	2	10.52	18.18
	Unknown or Awaiting Confirmation	142	(7.18)	-	-	-
Total		1978	(100.00)	19	(100.00)	(0.96)

 

Highest death rate at 12.94% is 51-60 yrs. 

[mauGR1]

20 hours ago, keith101 said:

Why does an economist think he knows better than medical experts , all he seems concerned with is money and not so much the health and well being of the people .

What a selfish post, of course you have money so if millions starve, doesn't matter, right ?

The doctors should heal the people, not destroy the economy.

[Assurancetourix]

4 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

 

This is for Thailand as of April 3.

Classification		Cases		Deaths		Lethality (%)
		n	(%)	n	(%)
Gender	Male	1074	(54.30)	17	89.47	1.58
	Female	827	(41.81)	2	10.53	0.24
	Unknown or Awaiting Confirmation	77	(3.89)	-	-	-
Age	0-10	27	(1.37)	0	(0)	(0)
	11-20	49	(2.48)	0	(0)	(0)
	21-30	484	(24.47)	0	(0)	(0)
	31-40	462	(23.36)	1	5.26	0.22
	41-50	349	(17.64)	2	10.52	0.57
	51-60	256	(12.94)	8	42.11	3.13
	61-70	144	(7.28)	1	5.26	0.69
	71-80	54	(2.73)	5	26.32	9.26
	81 or above	11	(0.56)	2	10.52	18.18
	Unknown or Awaiting Confirmation	142	(7.18)	-	-	-
Total		1978	(100.00)	19	(100.00)	(0.96)

 

Highest death rate at 12.94% is 51-60 yrs. 

 

Thanks to this table we can see what other countries also see, is that young people do not die from Covid;
we therefore wonder why the schools are closed.
and on closer inspection we see that up to the age of 50 there is practically no death;
so why stop a whole national economy for 3 dead!

There are an average of 60 to 70 a day on the road in Thailand and no one has yet had the brilliant idea of eliminating motor vehicles because of this.

[brain150]

Why is it that this "expert" says exactly the same as Bill Gates is saying for the last 3 month in 

every single interview he makes ???

 

The same Bill Gates that is the main sponsor to the WHO and the number one expert on vaccines nowadays.

[Tounge Thaied]

4 minutes ago, Assurancetourix said:

 

Thanks to this table we can see what other countries also see, is that young people do not die from Covid;
we therefore wonder why the schools are closed.
and on closer inspection we see that up to the age of 50 there is practically no death;
so why stop a whole national economy for 3 dead!

There are an average of 60 to 70 a day on the road in Thailand and no one has yet had the brilliant idea of eliminating motor vehicles because of this.

Answer: