Deaths not included in official death toll COVID19

[mauGR1]

14 minutes ago, Yinn said:

Thailand have more Chinese, Italy, France, German, Spain, Belgium, Spain, UK tourist. 

Unlucky because popular.

I don't like the virus, but popular places are cool.

I think that for the moment, Thailand is quite lucky, and i hope it stays this way.

[Bkk Brian]

1 hour ago, lopburi3 said:

There are currently less than 1,000 COVID-19 patients in hospitals (many would not require ventilator).  There are about 10,000 ventilators available.

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/news/news_no78_130463.pdf

Only 2,855 ventilators are actually available for use now, according to WHO Thailand.

 

And according to Dr Boon there's only 200 of the best type ventilators that actually trap the air without spreading the virus in the room, most of these are currently in use.

[lopburi3]

 

 

8 minutes ago, transam said:

So what....?

You posted Thailand has great medical stuff, yet, the countries around Thailand are poor with no problems. The first world countries are having problems even with their technology. So to me, in this peninsular, having much the same temperatures, should all be doing the same, Thailand is the odd one out...

Thailand is the international destination country making early spread much more likely (just as NYC for USA).  Add the spotlight is on Thailand due to it being the destination country and relatively free press/social media access (as compared to those others).  Expect much worse than being reported and if they do not isolate for long period could be more serious.  Suspect Antarctica may be the only area not effected in the long run.

[mauGR1]

6 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

And according to Dr Boon there's only 200 of the best type ventilators that actually trap the air without spreading the virus in the room, most of these are currently in use.

Wow, i know this is not joking matter, but it would be ironic if those costly and invasive ventilators would in fact have helped the diffusion of the virus in the hospitals ????

[mauGR1]

8 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

Wow, i know this is not joking matter, but it would be ironic if those costly and invasive ventilators would in fact have helped the diffusion of the virus in the hospitals ????

@Bkk Brian, of course i was referring to the ventilators in use in countries like Italy, where loads of doctors and nurses got infected, if that is the reason of your confused reaction.

[Yinn]

Stanford research reveals between 48,000 and 81,000 people in Santa Clara County alone may already have been infected by the coronavirus by early April — that’s 50 to 85 times more than the number of official cases at that date.

Not only do the numbers show how the U.S.’s severe shortage of testing led to a profound undercount of COVID-19 cases, they indicate the virus is far less deadly than believed.

 

 

link

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/04/17/coronavirus-2-5-to-4-2-of-santa-clara-county-residents-infected-stanford-estimates/

[chessman]

1 hour ago, Yinn said:

that’s 50 to 85 times more than the number of official cases at that date.

There have been other reports of this too. It’s interesting.
 

what I don’t understand with these estimations is that if Covid is so prevalent, why are so many people testing negative? The USA has 700,000 positive out of 3.5 million tests. So 4 out of 5 people are testing negative. It’s difficult to get tested, right? They only test people who they have a reason to test but still 80% of them are negative.

anybody have a theory about this?

[torturedsole]

The whole point of death tolls is not to have deaths included in the calculations.  Deaths skew the figures.

[bermondburi]

Firstly, we need to stop looking at numbers of infected people. Some countries are testing a lot and others aren't. And countries test in different ways. In some countries they only test you if you go to a hospital when you're sick. In my own country right now they are going door to door in labourer areas and proactively testing people because they know this is where the majority of the sick people are. 

 

Looking at deaths is better, but even then there are differences. In Belgium for example they include all deaths which they think are due to coronavirus, not just in hospitals. In the UK they're only including hospital deaths whereas the real figure including care homes could be 50% higher. Even in Germany there is no post mortem testing on people who died in hospital for some reason. 

 

Having said that, believing that Thai numbers are accurate is ridiculous. Testing is ludicrously low. 

 

People die all the time. Case numbers of viral pneumonia are up across the board. About 1000 a day. They're just not getting tested. 

 

The  MOPH should be honest and open about the new PUI every day. On the plus side, Thailand does have a young population which may be in its favour. 

 

How do you know when a politician is lying, when his lips move. 

[gk10002000]

Florida Sun Sentinal paper published an article noting the spike in deaths due to pneumonia in March.  None of those people were tested for the virus and now seems of course likely that some had it.  But again, almost any ailment would gravely harm the elderly which of course Florida has many of.

[mauGR1]

9 hours ago, chessman said:

There have been other reports of this too. It’s interesting.
 

what I don’t understand with these estimations is that if Covid is so prevalent, why are so many people testing negative? The USA has 700,000 positive out of 3.5 million tests. So 4 out of 5 people are testing negative. It’s difficult to get tested, right? They only test people who they have a reason to test but still 80% of them are negative.

anybody have a theory about this?

Could it be that the tests are unreliable ?

[Sharp]

20 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Only 2,855 ventilators are actually available for use now, according to WHO Thailand.

 

And according to Dr Boon there's only 200 of the best type ventilators that actually trap the air without spreading the virus in the room, most of these are currently in use.

Reports from health workers on the ground are stating ventilators are doing more harm than good as more and more info is being accessed in patients 

[Bkk Brian]

14 minutes ago, Sharp said:

Reports from health workers on the ground are stating ventilators are doing more harm than good as more and more info is being accessed in patients 

Yes seen similar reports, once on a ventilator your chances of survival are not good, but in the absence of other effective treatment for the most severe cases what choice do they have?

[Bkk Brian]

39 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

Could it be that the tests are unreliable ?

Possibly, another factor to consider is that if you test negative for COVID one day, its possible to go out and get infected the next.

[mauGR1]

56 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Possibly, another factor to consider is that if you test negative for COVID one day, its possible to go out and get infected the next.

My favourite nightmare is, while being perfectly healthy, being tested "positive" by a dodgy test, being held captive in a dodgy hospital, and finally get infected by some paramedic and have to pay for the treatment too !

And of course you are spot on with your post, you could test negative, jump on a plane, and be positive at the port of arrival. That's another good nightmare.

[Sharp]

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

Yes seen similar reports, once on a ventilator your chances of survival are not good, but in the absence of other effective treatment for the most severe cases what choice do they have?

Yeah I agree it's choice thing (NOT OURS) and not a situation I wish on anyone but if the alternative is making your situation worse then now we know the reason why most of the ventilated patients don't make it ...sorry state to be in unfortunately.. 

[Logosone]

12 hours ago, Yinn said:

Stanford research reveals between 48,000 and 81,000 people in Santa Clara County alone may already have been infected by the coronavirus by early April — that’s 50 to 85 times more than the number of official cases at that date.

Not only do the numbers show how the U.S.’s severe shortage of testing led to a profound undercount of COVID-19 cases, they indicate the virus is far less deadly than believed.

 

 

link

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/04/17/coronavirus-2-5-to-4-2-of-santa-clara-county-residents-infected-stanford-estimates/

Thanks for posting this, Yinn.

 

So we can see in transparent countries like the UK, like the US, that there are various reasons for inaccurate numbers. 

 

This is because there is a hard working, efficient, and free media that is able to report on such issues.

 

Can you imagine what the situation must be like in countries known for being super corrupt countries like South Korea, or communist lying machines like China? Or in places which do not have the facilities to even do what the western countries are doing in terms of testing and reporting?

 

Can we trust any of the numbers coming out of Asia?

[chessman]

6 hours ago, mauGR1 said:

Could it be that the tests are unreliable ?

Yes, could be, but which tests are unreliable? The ones in which we get our headline figures or the new antibody ones they used in this reasearch?

[mauGR1]

2 hours ago, chessman said:

Yes, could be, but which tests are unreliable? The ones in which we get our headline figures or the new antibody ones they used in this reasearch?

LOL, i would like to know, same as everyone.

[Yinn]

 

Data on deaths and infections is incomplete in Ecuador, as it is across the region. As of April 22, Ecuador – a country of 17 million people – had reported almost 11,000 cases, which on a per capita basis would put it behind only Panama in Latin America. But the true number is likely much higher. 

The government of Guayas Province, where Guayaquil is located, says 6,700 residents died in the first half of April, as compared to 1,000 in a normal year.

 

Link 

https://theconversation.com/deaths-and-desperation-mount-in-ecuador-epicenter-of-coronavirus-pandemic-in-latin-america-137015

 

[bermondburi]

No testing, no problem. 

 

https://www-voanews-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/data-analysis-less-testing-could-account-poorer-nations-lower-virus-cases?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&amp&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15891795658727&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From %1%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.voanews.com%2Fcovid-19-pandemic%2Fdata-analysis-less-testing-could-account-poorer-nations-lower-virus-cases

 

Thailand testing per capita currently 141st out of 212 countries and territories in the world. 

[Yinn]

On 4/16/2020 at 7:49 AM, Mama Noodle said:

 

You do understand that the same thing is happening in Thailand, Right?

Wrong.

[englishoak]

Just in, 50% of the world is now believed to have had it and 67% of those who have died since Jan have died with it and 2 other conditions, 15% had just one and the other 19% didnt.. 27% of the other 50% are likely to not know they have had it but expected to in the next 12 months and one person called Jesuz died but recovered a few days later. 

 

That is all. 

[innosiem]

in the UK 95% of "covid deaths"
the patients had pre-existing underlying conditions
these are official NHS stats
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

In the US deaths are being recorded as "covid deaths" even without testing
just one incident of 3700 deaths being added to the count without testing
reported by NYTimes and other (TVF) credible sources
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-deaths.html

One man in the US
also tried suicide by cop
he was shot 7 times by police
but his death 5 days later was put down as a "covid death"????‍♂️
https://nypost.com/2020/05/28/nyc-man-who-tried-suicide-by-cop-succumbs-to-coronavirus/

The US policy is to record any death WITH covid as a covid death
regardless of underlying pre-existing conditions
Deborah Birx clearly stated this at a press conference weeks ago
it is quite obvious the UK has the same policy

[Yinn]

On 4/18/2020 at 9:52 AM, Mattd said:

have no doubt that the death rate in the UK, or elsewhere for that matter, is a little skewed, but as high as 10% is a hard figure to believe due to the formalities, very few deaths in the UK are recorded as unknown and the government have nothing to gain or lose by miss recording the cause.

 

UK 293, 239 infection and 45,233 = death rate 15.4% 

 

The real figure probably 57,000 = death rate 19% 

 

1 of 5 infection die in UK. Is high.

 

 

 

 

 

293,239

+687

45,233

 

[transam]

6 minutes ago, Yinn said:

 

UK 293, 239 infection and 45,233 = death rate 15.4% 

 

The real figure probably 57,000 = death rate 19% 

 

1 of 5 infection die in UK. Is high.

 

 

 

 

 

293,239

+687

45,233

 

Your point is....?  

[lopburi3]

25 minutes ago, Yinn said:

 

UK 293, 239 infection and 45,233 = death rate 15.4% 

 

The real figure probably 57,000 = death rate 19% 

 

1 of 5 infection die in UK. Is high.

 

 

 

 

 

293,239

+687

45,233

 

Surely you do not believe everyone with covid has been tested?  Only a fraction are tested in any country, mostly those that seek hospital treatment, those that are the most sick.  So there is no valid death rate from the tested positive/died stats.  Most people who are positive will never be tested and just spend a few days ill at most.  

[Yinn]

On 7/18/2020 at 8:28 AM, transam said:

Your point is....?  

Why UK is so much? 

15%.

 

why UK and Spain not show “Total recovered” and “Active Cases” 

suspicious. 

[transam]

45 minutes ago, Yinn said:

Why UK is so much? 

15%.

 

why UK and Spain not show “Total recovered” and “Active Cases” 

suspicious. 

Go ask them, you seem to know everything farang, do a bit more research you normally dig something up......

[geriatrickid]

1 hour ago, Yinn said:

Why UK is so much? 

15%.

 

why UK and Spain not show “Total recovered” and “Active Cases” 

suspicious. 

 

There is nothing suspicious. what do you define as a "recovery?

 

There are some who criticize, as seen here:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/18/health-experts-criticise-uk-failure-track-recovered-covid-19-cases

 

And there are others who believe that the Approach of the UK and some other countries not to   record "recoveries" at this point is honest.  Is one  recovered if one develops  a  predisposition to heart attack and stroke due to the impact of the  disease?

Yale medical school just released an eye opener of a study that supports the view that a SARS-CoV-2 neuroinvasion,forces neurons to multiply, but doesn’t destroy them. Instead, this massive replication greatly inhibits the oxygen supplied to adjacent cells, causing them to wither and die.  These results provide evidence for the neuroinvasive capacity of SARS-CoV-2, and an unexpected consequence of direct infection of neurons by SARS-CoV-2 according to the study.

this may account in large part for the brain fog many "recovered" patients report long after  the virus is detectable.  These people have not fully recovered. we won't know for probably a year or more who has recovered.

 

It's wonderful that you wish to criticize the UK, but Thailand will be relying on the  knowledge and  expertise of these farangs  if it wishes to have a viable vaccine and  treatments.  To date, all of the  medical knowledge available to Thailand is farang sourced, so I suggest that you exercise some restraint.