Cm Has The Season Been Up Or Down

[cmsally]

Surprise! Surprise! Today's breaking news:

(BangkokPost.com) - Thailand’s tourism growth between the first and third quarters recorded 3.49 per cent, according to Tourism and Sports Minister Weerasak Kohsurat.

Unlike many countries that reported a negative tourism growth, the number of tourists during the first three quarters in Thailand continued to be positive, Mr Weerasak said.

He added that many countries, such as the United States, the United Kingdom and China, voted Thailand as one of the most attractive tourist destinations despite the oil price hikes in the beginning of the year and the prevailing global economic downturn.

The minister said the government will launch different tourism promotion campaigns, such as the ‘Iron Chef Nationwide’ to promote Thai food. He said the government has allocated a budget of 374 million baht for the ministry to implement different tourism projects in 2009.

Foreign tourists generated over 600 billion baht to the country while Thai tourists generated about 300 billion baht, he said.

I don't know how they have measured these but for any stats starting and after Sept. there has to be a massive drop in numbers. In BKK in both Sept and Oct as well as CM it was painfully obvious. And of course it is only going to get worse, the big drops from the economy/currency exchange and political turmoil are going to start from now.

However the "Iron Chef" idea is showing much more creative thinking than can usually be expected from a govt dept. I like the idea of getting people to dress up in armour of fortified woks and other metal cooking utensils so they can go and distribute free food that they have cooked up, to the various protests happening across the country. They will be nicely protected against all the flying shrapnel and batons and should even be able to get themselves over the barbed wire and other defences without too much damage.

[Theyreallrubbish]

IMHO, there are a fair number of farangs around, but they are mostly the type that spend little money. The generous, middle-class type tourists are worried about the economy and even more, the political situation in Thailand.

They have good lives and don't want to chance visiting a country that has been in constant turmoil for several years and where throwing hand grenades at innocent men, women and children is somewhat common.

I was driving around at the weekend and was astonished at the lack of tourists. The only ones I saw were young people who obviously don't spend as much as the middle aged. I saw maybe 2 middle aged couples in 4-5 hours of driving around the center of town.

The middle aged and middle class have been the worst hit by the financial crisis as they're the ones with declining house and stock values and big mortgages so its no surprise they're the ones cutting back spending. For the young, as long as they can still get hold of a little spending money they'll travel.

I also agree that people with children take a very different view of risk than the young and the childless.

I was also surprised at the lack of traffic in general. Might have been a quiet day, but the Thais seem to be cutting back as well. I went to a coffee shop and a restaurant and both were virtually empty. Staff sitting around bored making napkin origami.

Met with a real estate agent last night who serves westerners both for rents and purchasers and she said she had ZERO business, no-one even looking for rent or buying, and she's usually rushing around every day. She' spending a lot more time visiting family now.

[whiterussian]

Again last night ... only french middle age tourists! - of course it could be a french tour agency targetting the market im in, as a sight to see..

Time to hang the tricolour from the shop door! (wonder if its legal to cut up a thai flag into a french flag?)

[miltonbentley]

My observations are that most of the current reason for low western tourist was the high price of air fares over the summer. Long distance travellers just decided to go to destinations cheaper to reach. If Minister Weerasak Kohsurat departments figures are accurate the increase could only be attributed to tourists from Asia which are not impacting Farang oriented businesses. Although the low occupancy at hotels and guesthouses suggest the figures are a nonsense anyway.

My fear is that far worse is certain to come. The major effects of the financial crisis as regards tourism will not be felt until next year and I suspect it will be absolutely disastrous. The market from middle income tourists will be decimated as they retrench during the recession and cut out big spending holidays. The low end and high end markets will also be affected but to a lesser extent leaving us with back packers and Russian billionaires visiting Chiang Mai. Many Farang businesses have moved away from these markets to target the middle earners so will have to adapt or disappear.

To add to the woe the political situation is getting worse with an increase in violent incidents and many of those that might have come have been put off. This is particularly so in the case of first time visitors to Thailand who are often the highest spenders. I have had personal experience of a number people planning a first trip here getting cold feet on looking at their governments advice to travelling here. No amount of assurances from a Chiang Mai publican have convinced them that it is worth ignoring their governments' advice.

The tourist situation is compounded by the effects of the financial crisis on expats living here. The majority have seen the value of their investments and assets overseas butchered and the high baht, certainly in relation to the Euro and the pound, has added a lethal sucker punch. Most of the expats I have spoken to over the past month are extremely worried about their personal financial situation and have adjusted their spending accordingly leaving many businesses here staring into a gloomy abyss.

Not a very cheery post for a Monday morning but it is the facts of life and we can but try to remain cheerful and soldier on, remind ourselves that there are many millions worse off than ourselves and be thankful we live in this beautiful city.

PS it's quiz night tonight so come to Tuskers and have a night of fun and entertainment

[john b good]

Again last night ... only french middle age tourists! - of course it could be a french tour agency targetting the market im in, as a sight to see..

Time to hang the tricolour from the shop door! (wonder if its legal to cut up a thai flag into a french flag?)

You can try it "and then make a run for the airport" but you gonna have to be fast on yer feet...

[ThaiPauly]

My observations are that most of the current reason for low western tourist was the high price of air fares over the summer. Long distance travellers just decided to go to destinations cheaper to reach. If Minister Weerasak Kohsurat departments figures are accurate the increase could only be attributed to tourists from Asia which are not impacting Farang oriented businesses. Although the low occupancy at hotels and guesthouses suggest the figures are a nonsense anyway.

My fear is that far worse is certain to come. The major effects of the financial crisis as regards tourism will not be felt until next year and I suspect it will be absolutely disastrous. The market from middle income tourists will be decimated as they retrench during the recession and cut out big spending holidays. The low end and high end markets will also be affected but to a lesser extent leaving us with back packers and Russian billionaires visiting Chiang Mai. Many Farang businesses have moved away from these markets to target the middle earners so will have to adapt or disappear.

To add to the woe the political situation is getting worse with an increase in violent incidents and many of those that might have come have been put off. This is particularly so in the case of first time visitors to Thailand who are often the highest spenders. I have had personal experience of a number people planning a first trip here getting cold feet on looking at their governments advice to travelling here. No amount of assurances from a Chiang Mai publican have convinced them that it is worth ignoring their governments' advice.

The tourist situation is compounded by the effects of the financial crisis on expats living here. The majority have seen the value of their investments and assets overseas butchered and the high baht, certainly in relation to the Euro and the pound, has added a lethal sucker punch. Most of the expats I have spoken to over the past month are extremely worried about their personal financial situation and have adjusted their spending accordingly leaving many businesses here staring into a gloomy abyss.

Not a very cheery post for a Monday morning but it is the facts of life and we can but try to remain cheerful and soldier on, remind ourselves that there are many millions worse off than ourselves and be thankful we live in this beautiful city.

I fear that this is a very accurate analysis MB

[Ulysses G.]

It is a good, thoughtful post.

The only bright spot is that there is a fair chance that by next high season the Yellows and the Reds will be through with their protests, violence and shutting down public transportation. Maybe the few tourist that do have money will not be put off by constant civil unrest.

[ray23]

I don't see how the tourist industry can't be effected. People are trying figure how to save their homes, put food on the table, pay bills. Not exotic vacations.

It's not just thailand it's everywhere. Increase in tourist published in a Thai paper, think about it.

Not hard to find conflicting stories in the same day and even in the same paper.

This is really the land of Smoke and mirrors.

[Mapguy]

My observations are that most of the current reason for low western tourist was the high price of air fares over the summer. Long distance travellers just decided to go to destinations cheaper to reach. If Minister Weerasak Kohsurat departments figures are accurate the increase could only be attributed to tourists from Asia which are not impacting Farang oriented businesses. Although the low occupancy at hotels and guesthouses suggest the figures are a nonsense anyway.

My fear is that far worse is certain to come. The major effects of the financial crisis as regards tourism will not be felt until next year and I suspect it will be absolutely disastrous. The market from middle income tourists will be decimated as they retrench during the recession and cut out big spending holidays. The low end and high end markets will also be affected but to a lesser extent leaving us with back packers and Russian billionaires visiting Chiang Mai. Many Farang businesses have moved away from these markets to target the middle earners so will have to adapt or disappear.

To add to the woe the political situation is getting worse with an increase in violent incidents and many of those that might have come have been put off. This is particularly so in the case of first time visitors to Thailand who are often the highest spenders. I have had personal experience of a number people planning a first trip here getting cold feet on looking at their governments advice to travelling here. No amount of assurances from a Chiang Mai publican have convinced them that it is worth ignoring their governments' advice.

The tourist situation is compounded by the effects of the financial crisis on expats living here. The majority have seen the value of their investments and assets overseas butchered and the high baht, certainly in relation to the Euro and the pound, has added a lethal sucker punch. Most of the expats I have spoken to over the past month are extremely worried about their personal financial situation and have adjusted their spending accordingly leaving many businesses here staring into a gloomy abyss.

Not a very cheery post for a Monday morning but it is the facts of life and we can but try to remain cheerful and soldier on, remind ourselves that there are many millions worse off than ourselves and be thankful we live in this beautiful city.

PS it's quiz night tonight so come to Tuskers and have a night of fun and entertainment

Very well said! Rough road ahead.

There are some other matters to consider, of course, to improve things; not just the general economic situation. Chiang Mai must remain competitive. (And I won't even mention the heavy seasonal air pollution!!) To wit:

I agree with others that turning the city into a "Disneyland" is not the answer. Viewing Night Safari and a fancy new aquarium as tourist attractions? Not smart. I sympathize very much with the old-line resident Chiang Mai natives who are horrified to see their town change so much in a way that it is losing its "character." Some would simply like to lock the door, but thoughtful "old timers" are not anti-development or xenophobic. They simply want to see planned development that retains the character (and attractiveness) of the place. This is home! They are the people who lead the effort to make a sensible development plan for the city, not a plan with all the mega-projects that the development moguls have had in mind. They realize that development has to include a place for most enterprise, but not unbriddled enterprise. They have economic sensibilities about jobs for people, small businesses, etc.

[Parenthically, if anyone would care to don balaklavas and join me in blowing up a few score billboards in Chiang Mai and envrions, let me know! Everyone can do his bit! To let you in on a secret, the mayor would probably join us!]

Well, Thaksin did have his good points, but I think it is fair to say he had certain excesses, some of which may not ultimately benefit Chiang Mai. There are always winners and losers in change --- and that is not TIT bashing --- so changes now considered for Chiang Mai require more than lazy or casual awareness.

I know that I am a broken record for saying it time and time again, but if you want to be supportive, then you had better become more familiar with organizations like UDIF: http://www.udif.or.th/ .

[satiariyan]

... The market from middle income tourists will be decimated as they retrench during the recession and cut out big spending holidays. The low end and high end markets will also be affected but to a lesser extent leaving us with back packers and ...

The mentioned segment actually does have needs and quite a few members actually do carry some coins in their pockets as to pay for the costs associated with these needs. My daily bottom lines tell that tourist oriented business has never been any better in Chiang Mai (in reference to the latest 4 years only). Taking my almost daily strolls down Th. Ratchapakinai, up Th. Moon Muang and regularly venture into the sois between them, I see businesses more busy than ever before in the four years I've been doing these almost daily strolls and don't doubt that I am not the only one seing a rise compared to the same week numbers last year.

I can easily understand, though, why there are fewer people on the streets within comfortable walking distance from the hotels/guesthouses in the night bazaar area.

[Loaded]

Of course, the dip in the world's economy has had a big effect on numbers but I feel that the many negative stories coming out of Thailand relating to the experiences of farang here have also had an effect.

Incidents of Thai policemen murdering (executing) in cold blood innocent budget travellers in Pai and Kanchanaburi and the authorities resisting any sort of judicial enquiry until embassies become involved.

Travel agents freely cheating one tourist after another.

A teacher being locked up in Bang Kwan without bail for writing a book that briefly mentions the luxurious lifestyle of a p*****, after the author had sent the book to the appropriate Thai authority for clearance before he self published and 'sold' 8 copies!

Tourist resorts unable to sell alcohol to their guests for days at a stretch. There must have been over 10 of these days in the last year. Most farangs enjoy a class of wine with their evening meal and stories of prohibition in Thailand influence many people.

The idea that you have to be servile and completely vulnerable to the whims of public servants who process your visas, work permits and complaints of theft.

The sex industry which stops many families from considering a holiday here.

Edited November 25, 2008 by Loaded

[miltonbentley]

... The market from middle income tourists will be decimated as they retrench during the recession and cut out big spending holidays. The low end and high end markets will also be affected but to a lesser extent leaving us with back packers and ...

The mentioned segment actually does have needs and quite a few members actually do carry some coins in their pockets as to pay for the costs associated with these needs.

Hence I wrote -

Many Farang businesses have moved away from these markets to target the middle earners so will have to adapt or disappear.

[cmsally]

Maybe the flashpacker will return to being the backpacker.

Should be interesting ,as it seems many businesses have invested in providing something that the backpacker could previously afford with the favourable exchange rates.

[StevieH]

Of course, the dip in the world's economy has had a big effect on numbers but I feel that the many negative stories coming out of Thailand relating to the experiences of farang here have also had an effect.

Incidents of Thai policemen murdering (executing) in cold blood innocent budget travellers in Pai and Kanchanaburi and the authorities resisting any sort of judicial enquiry until embassies become involved.

Travel agents freely cheating one tourist after another.

as someone who began this year as a backpacker, actually probably more of a flashpacker in fairness, i wouldn't say that those negative stories are particularly prevalent in influencing peoples' choice to come to the kingdom. if anything backpackers probably see those types of stories as incentives to come here.

[sabaijai]

A teacher being locked up in Bang Kwan without bail for writing a book that briefly mentions the luxurious lifestyle of a p*****, after the author had sent the book to the appropriate Thai authority for clearance before he self published and 'sold' 8 copies!

Klong Prem Remand Prison, not yet Bang Kwang as the writer has not yet been tried.

[ThaiPauly]

I fear that todays shenanagans at the airport in BK will do irrepprable harm to the already "Fragile" tourist industry.

Pictures and stories are appearing all over world.

I find it incredible that the people involved in the rallies (the foot soldiers) have absolutley no idea how much self-harm they are doing to themselves...I am sure that many of them must work in tourism related jobs !!

Would the last one out please turn off the lights.

[CMMCB]

Another straw for the camel's back: the latest UK mini-budget this week announced an increase in the long-haul flight airport tax from £40 pp to £50 next November and then £80 in 2010. Might make a few potential tourists think twice about coming so far with airfares already much higher than in recent years.

On the other hand, falling oil prices might reduce fuel surcharges and it seems AirAsiaX is now offering long-haul budget flights from KL to London (Stansted). Let's hope for increased frequency for KL-CNX flights, eh?

CMMCB

[Theyreallrubbish]

I fear that todays shenanagans at the airport in BK will do irrepprable harm to the already "Fragile" tourist industry.

Pictures and stories are appearing all over world.

I find it incredible that the people involved in the rallies (the foot soldiers) have absolutley no idea how much self-harm they are doing to themselves...I am sure that many of them must work in tourism related jobs !!

Would the last one out please turn off the lights.

It'll be interesting in a couple of weeks to see how empty Chiang Mai gets. There's never been a situation where tourists literally couldn't get into the country. Its not like the Tsunami, or SARS. This is going to be mindboggling in the fall in numbers

[cmsally]

I fear that todays shenanagans at the airport in BK will do irrepprable harm to the already "Fragile" tourist industry.

Pictures and stories are appearing all over world.

I find it incredible that the people involved in the rallies (the foot soldiers) have absolutley no idea how much self-harm they are doing to themselves...I am sure that many of them must work in tourism related jobs !!

Would the last one out please turn off the lights.

It'll be interesting in a couple of weeks to see how empty Chiang Mai gets. There's never been a situation where tourists literally couldn't get into the country. Its not like the Tsunami, or SARS. This is going to be mindboggling in the fall in numbers

It works both ways , they also can't leave the country.

It just means they won't be happy tourists.

[satiariyan]

... so - how's it going, local business owners? - Are you all still here and clinging on with your fingernails? -I, for one, am still here and I'm still a bit hesitant about accepting the doomsday predictions that prevail throughout online forums - not the least this one - postulated by armchair analysts, that apparently don't have anything better to do than search for hours for other armchair analyst's supporting scripts to link to.

[wolfmanjack]

... so - how's it going, local business owners? - Are you all still here and clinging on with your fingernails? -I, for one, am still here and I'm still a bit hesitant about accepting the doomsday predictions that prevail throughout online forums - not the least this one - postulated by armchair analysts, that apparently don't have anything better to do than search for hours for other armchair analyst's supporting scripts to link to.

So are you doing better, worse, or the same as last year ? This is supposed to be the high season but from every one that i have talked to in the tourist business December revenue was lower than November revenue in 2008.

[Ulysses G.]

Personally, I think that it is foolish to compare with last year. Things are just too different and it is hard to forget what happened during the month that the Aiport was shut down.

I'm just happy to not be doing too badly now and try not to think about what it is usually like at this time of year!

It seems to me that there are a lot more farangs arriving in town the past few days. Chiang Mai was mostly full of Thai tourists for Christmas and New Year.

[BigSnake]

Judging from my recent short visit to CM I would guess on the Up side. Most of the local vendors I saw seem to be done quite well, all smiles, lot of cash from day sells.

[cmsally]

Difficult to generalise, there are different sectors of the market. Numbers in general were boosted by many Thai tourists travelling over New Year. But more noticeable in Pai than Chiang Mai.

More foreign tourists seem to be arriving after New year but probably less than a normal high season.

Unfortunately a lot of traders don't have any kind of long term plan so happy today but who knows in a few months time.

In terms of accommodation seems low/middle market (700-1200Bt) sector suffers huge oversupply, be interesting to see what goes on there in the next year.

[wolfmanjack]

Judging from my recent short visit to CM I would guess on the Up side. Most of the local vendors I saw seem to be done quite well, all smiles, lot of cash from day sells.

I can give you a reason the vendors were smiling if your trip was over the holiday. My wife was down 75% for the month until Xmas started. She ended up only being down 50% for December compared to November. Keep in mind that normally December would be much higher than November.

[whiterussian]

Thai market place (literally) was dead upto new near (xmas not really applicable), but new year has been ok.

Have a feeling the Thai's will run out of cash pdq though. Havent told the missus yet. If trade is still bad over next 2 months will look to take cash out of the business. We sell 'luxury' items (although many women wouldnt consider 'fashion' as a luxury). Had a new year sale which was very effective (and stuck two fingers up at the copycat sellers that have mushroomed up over last few months). Sold 90 items in last 5 days.

Edited January 7, 2009 by whiterussian

[Gonzo the Face]

tis the season..... to be ..??????

tis the season, but I don't know for what.....

is there something downer than down ???

Wolfmanjack, I can sympathize with you and your wife.

Now as if we didn't have enough problems..... along comes SWINE FLU {this will assure no guests from Israel and Muslim countries]

Trials and Tribulations

DOWNSIDE

* world wide economic situation

* travel limited by high cost of transport

* worry by travelers, shouldi I spend for holiday, as maybe I won't have a job much longer

* yellow shirt close of airports

* red shirt riots

* longlasting fighting in South of Thailand

* various embassies around the world putting out travelers warnings about coming to thailand

* now Swine Flu

UPSIDE

* we have a friend , UG, so maybe we can catch up on our reading.

I do think that we are going to be in this mess through the hi season of 2010 and will not see relatively better times until the hi season of 2011

I do fear that a lot of us will be doing something new in the not too distant future.

Gonzo

[Ulysses G.]

I know of three new businesses - El Diablo's, The Hideaway and Pinkeys - that are actually doing well in despite of all the negative goings on. I'm sure that there are more.

The original Duke's and the original CM Saloon are doing well, but their newer stores are not. I am doing OK, under the circumstances.

My point is that some people are doing pretty well, so we cannot get too depressed and just give up.

My prediction is that high season will not be too bad if all of the political malarkey settles down soon and if the swine flu does not turn into a major issue. There are a lot of people who love Thailand and do not want to miss a year unless they absolutely have to, and there are signs that the economic mess is starting to improve. Just keep on keeping on.

Edited April 27, 2009 by Ulysses G.

[Mapguy]

UG makes good points. But it is well-run businesses who will make it. As a percentage, small business failures are high --- anywhere.

Some well-run businesses are, I think stuck, however, on false promises made in the past about the potential of tourism in Northern Thailand and Chiang Mai, in particular. Some have pretty deep pockets, but right now, if I were Holiday Inns, the Shangra-La and Meridian --- to pick three --- I'd be rather concerned! Where can I write off these losses??!!

The political end game has not yet been played so don't look for relief there! The economic game will probably improve first. In the end, of course, you can always pick mangos off the tree in your garden! And maybe UG will invite you out for dinner!!

[Ulysses G.]

I always wonder how realistic it is having all of these big luxury hotels in a town where one can get a comfortable room with English TV, aircon and a swimming pool for around 500-1,000 baht - even during normal economic times. A nicer three or 4 star hotel might be 1,500 -2,000 baht. It doesn't seem like there are large numbers of very wealthy people visiting Chiang Mai on a regular basis. Who is going to pay much more for all of those expensive 5 Star hotels that are all over town?