Cm Has The Season Been Up Or Down

[Ulysses G.]

im sure the TAT has its ideas on what "quality" is.

Most likely is a tourist who spends plenty of money in Thailand without breaking its laws.

Except the laws that they WANT you to break!

[geriatrickid]

In response to Frankdogs post here is what I think is happening. The combination of several factors are going against Thailand this year/season as far as tourism is concerned. High baht vs dollar. Ongoing insurgency in the south. Military installed government. New destinations eg Vietnam.

Disagree with you on a few things;

Culprit is the cost of a holiday. Thailand has gotten very expensive in the past 2 years. The luxury hotels were once attractive. Check out the Sheraton and Dusit prices in the tourist beach areas. Even the mid market hotels have let their upkeep slide as they try to contain the price increases. Shopping bargains aren't there anymore either. Sure you can buy counterfeit goods, but those goods fall apart after a few uses or a couple of washes. Even basic shoe prices are through the roof. Something is up when basic Puma shoes are almost as expensive in Thailand as in the EU or NA.

FX impact on $US is there but, for a lot of tourists what's another $300. - $1000.? US tourist visits were declining well before the $ dropped anyway.

Southern insurgency is relatively mild. The victims are thais, not tourists. Savvy tourists are the ones that usually spend alot and they know enough to avoid the deep south.Admittedly though, it does have an impact on the Taiwanese & Japanese. South Koreans live next door to a crazy madman, so they don't scare easy.

Military government? Doubt too many people care despite their bleatings otherwise. If it's cheap they'll go.

But you are absolutely right about new destinations. Vietnam is promoting itself heavily and even targeting americans. Cambodia has grabbed a major chunk of the sex tourist trade and Malaysia has an enviable rep for being safe and modern. Wait until the Burma tourist trade expands in the next 3 years. It's already pulling in the wealthier tourists.

TOT needs to wake up fast or else they'll be staring at empty beaches and hotels like a few carribean islands that priced themselves out of the market.

[Cyberstar]

TOT needs to wake up fast or else they'll be staring at empty beaches and hotels like a few carribean islands that priced themselves out of the market.

It'd be okay with me to see those tourists, that used to spend all their holiday at the beaches, go somewhere else less pricey.

[Donnyboy]

In response to Frankdogs post here is what I think is happening. The combination of several factors are going against Thailand this year/season as far as tourism is concerned. High baht vs dollar. Ongoing insurgency in the south. Military installed government. New destinations eg Vietnam.

Disagree with you on a few things;

Culprit is the cost of a holiday. Thailand has gotten very expensive in the past 2 years. The luxury hotels were once attractive. Check out the Sheraton and Dusit prices in the tourist beach areas. Even the mid market hotels have let their upkeep slide as they try to contain the price increases. Shopping bargains aren't there anymore either. Sure you can buy counterfeit goods, but those goods fall apart after a few uses or a couple of washes. Even basic shoe prices are through the roof. Something is up when basic Puma shoes are almost as expensive in Thailand as in the EU or NA.

FX impact on $US is there but, for a lot of tourists what's another $300. - $1000.? US tourist visits were declining well before the $ dropped anyway.

Southern insurgency is relatively mild. The victims are thais, not tourists. Savvy tourists are the ones that usually spend alot and they know enough to avoid the deep south.Admittedly though, it does have an impact on the Taiwanese & Japanese. South Koreans live next door to a crazy madman, so they don't scare easy.

Military government? Doubt too many people care despite their bleatings otherwise. If it's cheap they'll go.

But you are absolutely right about new destinations. Vietnam is promoting itself heavily and even targeting americans. Cambodia has grabbed a major chunk of the sex tourist trade and Malaysia has an enviable rep for being safe and modern. Wait until the Burma tourist trade expands in the next 3 years. It's already pulling in the wealthier tourists.

TOT needs to wake up fast or else they'll be staring at empty beaches and hotels like a few carribean islands that priced themselves out of the market.

Not sure about the hotels in the beach areas, but in Chiang Mai the prices seem steady. 2 new 4-5 star hotels will be online soon and im sure most will be offering the best prices as possible to fill rooms without losing money. There are always cheaper accomadation if you look for it. eg in Phuket Prices range from 700 baht to 20,000 ?? per night

as for shopping here, based on my younger sisters trip here last year, she still managed to overload her bag full of clothing and shoes from many dept stores, muttering so cheap,so cheap. Mind you she didnt buy Puma Adidas nike etc and they werent fakes either.

A note on counterfeit goods- my tees and jeans have definately NOT fallen apart after a few washes in fact they last as long as the genuine stuff. Handbags well I dont have any but they could break easily. Shoes- debateable as well, depends on quality of them.

Im sure this debate will go on but most here on this thread are probably wondering if this season is a trend or a blip.

[cmsally]

I would say Thailand is still as cheap as it used to be, but there's definitely more variety and more choice.

You can pay what you want to.

I think the growth of second homes has affected the holiday market. A lot of my friends spend their holidays in their second home or their parents/friends second homes. Although it has a knock on affect. I got talking to a Spanish tourist a few months ago who was on holiday here as her home town was full of British tourists !!

[Ulysses G.]

Im sure this debate will go on but most here on this thread are probably wondering if this season is a trend or a blip.

I would guess that the bad season last year was mostly a blip.

Because of the Flower Festival and Thais renting out all the hotel rooms, it was VERY difficult for big-spending foreigners to get a room here for 4 months during the height of high season and plenty seemed to be trying that ended up going elsewhere. After that we had a week or two of bad pollution, and the BBC and CNN focused on it the whole time, but kept estimating that it would last "6 months" and repeating it over and over. I noticed that as soon as that 6 months was up, sales have gone back to normal.

However, the days of setting up a low quality business directed at tourists - a half-assed bar, restauraunt, coffee shop, conveinience store, bookshop, or guesthouse - and making money are over. There are LOTS of good choices now for all these businesses, and even some of the better restaurants have trouble getting enough customers ( The Laughing Leprechan for example).

Something like 9 out of 10 new tourist oriented businesses fail, even though many farang owners use their own money to prop them up for a couple of years. My advice is not to open a business here unless you are sure that you know what you are doing and can provide something that no one else is providing as far as quality or price and that existing businesses will have a VERY hard time matching you.

[cmsally]

Definitely agree with Ulysses, competition for every business is more than a hundred times what it used to be, whether it be accommodation, food, shopping; whatever.

I think you will have a very hard time finding something no one can match. Even if it needs a lot of investment it seems there are many people out there willing to go for it.

[Cyberstar]

Quite right ... Chiang Mai is pretty well prepared to deliver quality service to quality tourists - just bring them along, please.

[Sanpatong]

Suppose you're a wealthy quality tourist. Why would you then come to Chiang Mai?

The main thing that made backpackers come to Chiang Mai was trekking/mountains/hill tribes. Wealthy tourists don;t go trekking, they get bussed around to brain dead monkey schools, night safaris and orchid zoos. Then they go 'well, that sucked, I could have done that in Phuket'.

[sleepyjohn]

Had dinner w my friend Jonno the other night. He is an export agent and shipper. He says everyone in baan Tawai is scraping for business.

[calibanjr.]

Baan Tawai is at "crickets chirping" biz-level. That's more from a mix of other things (govt. paperwork gymnastics for exporters, $/THB rate, etc.), not just seasonal tourist drop.

Edited August 9, 2007 by calibanjr.

[wadsy]

Baan Tawai is at "crickets chirping" biz-level. That's more from a mix of other things (govt. paperwork gymnastics for exporters, $/THB rate, etc.), not just seasonal tourist drop.

I don't quite understand the 'crickets chirping biz-level' comment. Care to elaborate what you mean?

[Donnyboy]

Suppose you're a wealthy quality tourist. Why would you then come to Chiang Mai?

The main thing that made backpackers come to Chiang Mai was trekking/mountains/hill tribes. Wealthy tourists don;t go trekking, they get bussed around to brain dead monkey schools, night safaris and orchid zoos. Then they go 'well, that sucked, I could have done that in Phuket'.

good point, but then why have a couple of new 4-5 star hotels ready to come online late this year early next?

They must have done some studies on what the market in CM will be like for the long term OR they made the decision to build during the taksin administration, whereby CM was going to be the hub of the tourism- plans for large scale cable car projects, resorts, possibly a casino, blah blah blah

[calibanjr.]

Baan Tawai is at "crickets chirping" biz-level. That's more from a mix of other things (govt. paperwork gymnastics for exporters, $/THB rate, etc.), not just seasonal tourist drop.

I don't quite understand the 'crickets chirping biz-level' comment. Care to elaborate what you mean?

Nothing exotic, just so quiet that you only hear the distinct sound of crickets chirping, metaphorically speaking.

[siam-i-am]

The only ones making decent money are the landlords, the Thai attitude to business is that person has opened a coffee shop, book shop, hairdresser etc. They must be doing well so I will open next door if they have a farang friend to keep it afloat so much the better. No business plan, research, nothing I've talked to many over the 10 years in the city most have a little money and big dreams they come and go the landlords remain.

[Sanpatong]

Chiang Mai is full of businesses like this - of every type - that take up space, make no money for the owner, provide little to the public, but - little by little - take away from legitimate businesses that actually need to make money to survive.

Good point, and I could probably add it's not just 'retired-foreigner' businesses that don't make money but are kept afloat but also a lot of businesses owned by wealthy Thai families. However......... while I can see where you're coming from, it may not be a bad thing for the tourist/customer who gets a bigger choice. Case in point, I went to the restaurant at Ban Nai Fun on the Canal Road for lunch. This is a really nice place, priced a tad higher than average but for sure not nearly enough to make money based on the location, the staff, the nice aircon running all the time and the attention to the food. Of course it's owned probably by Ban Nai Fun itself, which itself is owned by the Niyom Phanich people who honestly don't mind if some of their businesses are in the red for a mere decade or so, and they'd probably argue that having a place like that makes the whole development more attractive and they'd probably be right.

In your example it's a case of someone you claim 'doesn't really know or like books' but it could just as easily be a richer actual enthusiast who runs a great shop and enjoys it as his hobby too, but just isn't making money. There must be a lot of examples of that type, some bars for sure, but take for example the go-kart operation.. Can't imagine he's making wads of money, yet it remains open and available that benefits tourism in Chiang Mai (say the tourists who come as a family with teenage kids which is a growing group).

Even the government is peddling businesses that don't make money. Need not look further than the Night Safari.

Edited August 29, 2007 by Jai Dee

[Ulysses G.]

Even the government is peddling businesses that don't make money. Need not look further than the Night Safari.

Too true.

[Gonzo the Face]

My input again

June and July up vs same months last year.

August vs last year down considerably. Overall number of clients/guests/customers noticeably down vs last year.

Have noticed slightly strange, a much, much greater number of French. Have estimatedly had more French Tourists in the past 3 months than in probably the past 10 years combined. In years past French Tourists were a rarity for me.... This year there are times when we are full up with all French. In groups also, I agree. Must be our French Fry recipe.

Seems though that the streets are even more quiet than normal for this time of the year...

Also the annual Flood in behind schedule.

....and per the kids, the tips are not the same, even in percentage. Seems there are a lot of cheap charlies in the midst, spending half their holiday looking for something cheaper, and cheaper, and cheaper.

Gonzo

[Ulysses G.]

For us, everything went back to normal starting in about June - when the BBC and CNN said the pollution would die down here - and about August 15 - September 15 is always our slowest time of year, so I'm not surprised.

[Donnyboy]

My input again

June and July up vs same months last year.

August vs last year down considerably. Overall number of clients/guests/customers noticeably down vs last year.

Have noticed slightly strange, a much, much greater number of French. Have estimatedly had more French Tourists in the past 3 months than in probably the past 10 years combined. In years past French Tourists were a rarity for me.... This year there are times when we are full up with all French. In groups also, I agree. Must be our French Fry recipe.

Seems though that the streets are even more quiet than normal for this time of the year...

Also the annual Flood in behind schedule.

....and per the kids, the tips are not the same, even in percentage. Seems there are a lot of cheap charlies in the midst, spending half their holiday looking for something cheaper, and cheaper, and cheaper.

Gonzo

this june would have been up by 20-30% margin due to last years world cup football I would imagine.

youre right Gonzo,the nightmarket has slowed considerably this week, maybe due to the rain we had as well, but mostly seasonal Id say. Floods behind schedule, I think mother nature has a way of catching up and surprising us from time to time, so im sure the heavy rains will come.

have you guys noticed the increased tourists from Dubai? Hhm maybe Im wrong where theyre from, the women that dress from head to toe in black, and carrying all the goods,while hubby in shorts and tee carrys bugger all. Have I got the correct nation?

On a side note re Nightmarket, many shops along the new Le Meridian hotel? fenceline will be disappearing shortly as the hotel will be continuing to develop the building on the enterance. That will be about 50 shops gone I would say.

[adjan jb]

Have noticed slightly strange, a much, much greater number of French. Have estimatedly had more French Tourists in the past 3 months than in probably the past 10 years combined.

the tips are not the same, even in percentage. Seems there are a lot of cheap charlies in the midst

[wolfmanjack]

Suppose you're a wealthy quality tourist. Why would you then come to Chiang Mai?

The main thing that made backpackers come to Chiang Mai was trekking/mountains/hill tribes. Wealthy tourists don;t go trekking, they get bussed around to brain dead monkey schools, night safaris and orchid zoos. Then they go 'well, that sucked, I could have done that in Phuket'.

good point, but then why have a couple of new 4-5 star hotels ready to come online late this year early next?

They must have done some studies on what the market in CM will be like for the long term OR they made the decision to build during the taksin administration, whereby CM was going to be the hub of the tourism- plans for large scale cable car projects, resorts, possibly a casino, blah blah blah

The shangrila was started during thaksin's reign. It looks like it could be coming online early next year.

[cmsally]

Went past the Shangri La today and looks almost finished as does the Meridian at the Night Bazaar

Definitely right about the number of French and also Spanish.

Two weeks ago I took my daughter to Jim Thompsons house in BKK and I swear while we there at least 500 people must have gone through there, it was packed. We were there about an hour and their restaurant was packed too. They must have thousands of people going through there per day.

You might find that the large hotels opening up have the marketing pull to get customers up to Chiang Mai that wouldn't otherwise visit. An awful lot of people buy a holiday abroad that doesn't include Chiang Mai at all. Bangkok and Phuket is always included and at this time of year you can get multiple free nights if you stay long enough in the south.

[Ulysses G.]

My input again

Also the annual Flood in behind schedule.

Gonzo

Floods behind schedule, I think mother nature has a way of catching up and surprising us from time to time, so im sure the heavy rains will come.

Are we forgetting that the rain started in APRIL this year rather than late May? Maybe the rain will stop early?

[Donnyboy]

My input again

Also the annual Flood in behind schedule.

Gonzo

Floods behind schedule, I think mother nature has a way of catching up and surprising us from time to time, so im sure the heavy rains will come.

Are we forgetting that the rain started in APRIL this year rather than late May? Maybe the rain will stop early?

and maybe the moon wont come out tonight

[Gonzo the Face]

As I have not seen an update on this for some time, I would like to stir the pot and get some opinions from others.

To me this year, 2008, has been a mixed bag. Some months good, some months bad. I do think that overall to this date, this year has seen far fewer tourists coming to Chiang Mai. The world wide economic circumstances may be part of the answer, but excuses for not good business, it does not make.

How about you, UG? Any comments as you are spread about town.

Gonzo

Edited May 26, 2008 by Gonzo the Face

[Ajarn]

My input again

Also the annual Flood in behind schedule.

Gonzo

Floods behind schedule, I think mother nature has a way of catching up and surprising us from time to time, so im sure the heavy rains will come.

Are we forgetting that the rain started in APRIL this year rather than late May? Maybe the rain will stop early?

Rain is normal and usually starts the end of April. May is almost always shown as the wettest month, as I recall.

And there is no schedule for flooding here, because it is rare.

[Ulysses G.]

My experience is similar to yours Gonzo, but my main complaint this year and last is that I feel the "High Season" in Chiang Mai has shrunk drastically due to our reputation for "pollution/bad air" around the end of February. Tourists are avoiding coming here as soon as it heats up.

High Season used to start with Loy Kratung in about November and end right after Songkran, but not the last two years. In fact, for me, it has been slower in March and the beginning of April than during Rainy Season.

If this is a permanent situation, it will make having a tourist-oriented business here a lot less profitable, because rents have gotten so high that one needs to make decent money for more than 3 months to make a decent profit for the whole year.

Lots of bookstores have closed recently and most of the others are operating at a loss, so I feel pretty good that we are still doing well.

One of the reasons I have opened so many stores is so the ones that are more profitable can support the ones that aren't until I can figure out why, but I would like to have time to try different things and experiment with different tactics before I discontinue any. Eventually, I will phase out the ones that don't make enough of a profit to make them worthwhile.

Edited May 26, 2008 by Ulysses G.

[cmsally]

From what I hear from many people this May has been as dead as the proverbial doornail. I went to the Night Bazaar for the first time in ages last week and couldn't believe how quiet it was (it was not a Sunday) and how many of the shops had shut.

Vast sections were closed.

On top of that, rapid inflation and ever climbing rents.

Makes me wonder how a lot of the businesses survive.

May is always quiet but maybe more so and compounded by the rising costs.

[PlaShadow]

My experience is similar to yours Gonzo, but my main complaint this year and last is that I feel the "High Season" in Chiang Mai has shrunk drastically due to our reputation for "pollution/bad air" around the end of February. Tourists are avoiding coming here as soon as it heats up.

Unfortunately it is not just a reputation, but a reality. The internet is full of first hand stories, facts and photos. I'm afraid Chiang Mai and its people are unable to make any changes to the better, as cause and effect are about as alien concepts, as following the law requiring one to wear a helmet whilst driving a motor cycle.

Until these kind of things can't be found on the internet with a 30 sec. search, people will stay away, business and life's will suffer, but who cares….. the giant theme parks and hotels are about be filled with Chinese tourists who don't fuss to much about the grey sky!

"When is the best time to visit Chiang Mai? The answer would depend on the state of your respiratory system - but I'd day avoid March if possible!"

http://www.earthoria.com/air-pollution-lev...mai-rising.html

"Last weekend there were fires everywhere. Whole mountain ranges were alight. In the city there were many ' little' fires like the one on the picture. I've tried to find out the reason for burning. I don't really understand the reasoning."

http://www.mythailanddiary.com/743/air-pol...-in-chiang-mai/

Be there no mistake, but the burning in Chiang Mai and the north has been just as bad as last year, we have just had unusual amount of rain, spread over all months since December. Just wait for next year, and it might be "business" as usual.