Cm Has The Season Been Up Or Down

[Priceless]

My experience is similar to yours Gonzo, but my main complaint this year and last is that I feel the "High Season" in Chiang Mai has shrunk drastically due to our reputation for "pollution/bad air" around the end of February. Tourists are avoiding coming here as soon as it heats up.

Unfortunately it is not just a reputation, but a reality. The internet is full of first hand stories, facts and photos. I'm afraid Chiang Mai and its people are unable to make any changes to the better, as cause and effect are about as alien concepts, as following the law requiring one to wear a helmet whilst driving a motor cycle.

Until these kind of things can't be found on the internet with a 30 sec. search, people will stay away, business and life's will suffer, but who cares….. the giant theme parks and hotels are about be filled with Chinese tourists who don't fuss to much about the grey sky!

"When is the best time to visit Chiang Mai? The answer would depend on the state of your respiratory system - but I'd day avoid March if possible!"

http://www.earthoria.com/air-pollution-lev...mai-rising.html

"Last weekend there were fires everywhere. Whole mountain ranges were alight. In the city there were many ' little' fires like the one on the picture. I've tried to find out the reason for burning. I don't really understand the reasoning."

http://www.mythailanddiary.com/743/air-pol...-in-chiang-mai/

Be there no mistake, but the burning in Chiang Mai and the north has been just as bad as last year, we have just had unusual amount of rain, spread over all months since December. Just wait for next year, and it might be "business" as usual.

Another one of these massively stupid posts, confusing undocumented Internet postings with reality. Since a lot of people are surely expecting me to post some statistics ("reality") to counter this, I might as well post once again my graph of pollution in Chiang Mai compared to some other popular "farang areas" in Thailand:

As can easily be seen, Chiang Mai does have a serious pollution problem, compared to these other areas, during the month of March. For the rest of the year, it is comparatively equal or (during May-November) much better than the other three. BTW, even during March it is no way the most polluted place in Thailand.

(The raw data, covering the years 2000-2008, comes from the Pollution Control department website http://www.pcd.go.th/AirQuality/Regional/Q...fm?task=default and has been compiled and analysed by me.)

I can't help but wonder what is driving people to post these false rumours. They obviously only serve to cause problems for the people of Chiang Mai.

/ Priceless

[Gonzo the Face]

To Stir the pot again.

Just have to say that business has not been anything like it was just a few years ago.

Again while this year has been a mixec bag, I feel that it is overall down. I pretty much divide my business into local people and the tourists.

I have to say that thanks to the locals, we are able to continue to operate, but as to the tourists, definitely lower in numbers, which naturally equals lower revenue.

As far as the tourists are concerned, I think the major factor in less numbers, is the cost of fuel, resulting in much higher costs of travel. Our numbers on foreigners are lower, the greater the distance they have to travel. The drop in US and Canadians is noticeable. Europeans, Aussies, and New Zealanders down but not as bad.

Yesterday, I got word from a Redbus driver who usually delivers supplies from Muang Mai Mkt. He said his business is way , way down as he used to deliver produce and meat to many restaurants and guest houses around Thaepae Gate, who tdue o lack of business have shut down.

UG Maybe you could put some more finite info on this as this is one of your neighborhoods.

I don't know of any closing, but I do know this . I have had time to do considerable reading, which I haven't been able to do for a long time.

Gonzo

Edited July 18, 2008 by Gonzo the Face

[Ulysses G.]

The bad news is that business is down all over the country. One of my buddies just visited from Phuket and he says it is quite noticeable there also even though I would guess that they have some of the highest number of tourists in the country.

The good news is that almost every tourist-oriented business I know in Chiang Mai is doing quite well right now. It is my guess that if tourism is strong at this time of year and under these circumstances, it should be OK during high season (unless things get much worse). After that, who knows?

Edited July 18, 2008 by Ulysses G.

[Theyreallrubbish]

The bad news is that business is down all over the country. One of my buddies just visited from Phuket and he says it is quite noticeable there also even though I would guess that they have some of the highest number of tourists in the country.

The good news is that almost every tourist-oriented business I know in Chiang Mai is doing quite well right now. It is my guess that if tourism is strong at this time of year and under these circumstances, it should be OK during high season (unless things get much worse). After that, who knows?

I don't think the effects of the economic crisis in the west is going to be felt until next year in terms of visitors due to the timescales involved. The financial crisis began in August 2007. This didn't affect most people directly unless they were trying to sell their house, but since March of this year and paricularly since June we've seen accelerating unemployment growth and collapsing consumer sentiment.

These effects, coupled with continuing falls in house prices that have now fallen to a degree that they are effecting people's sense of their personal wealth, will continue throughout this year.

As a large proportion of people visiting now will have booked prior to March the impact of the economic slowdown has yet to be fully felt.

I'd be interested to hear if local business people notice a decline in American visitors before the decline in Euro visitors as the US is about 6 months ahead of Europe in this downward swing of the business cycle.

But by the end of this year the US and Europe will be in a recession with already many months of rising unemployment causing great economic insecurity even for people still well off and in jobs.

The buzz word in the US this summer and one that is spreading across the Atlantic is "Staycation" as people have vacations at home to save money

[Ulysses G.]

I'd be interested to hear if local business people notice a decline in American visitors before the decline in Euro visitors as the US is about 6 months ahead of Europe in this downward swing of the business cycle.

The buzz word in the US this summer and one that is spreading across the Atlantic is "Staycation" as people have vacations at home to save money

It is quite easy to cancel a vacation, if things are that serious and people aren't. I haven't noticed any drop in US visitors at all so far (although some other businesses say they have).

As far as "staying home" for vacation goes, most Western tourists tell me it is cheaper to come to Thailand than to travel in their home countries and they have no intention of locking themselves in their rooms to save money during their precious time off. Hopefully, many of the people who usually vacation in expensive countries in Europe will save money by downgrading to Thailand instead and save a bundle of money.

Last night at 10 PM, the Duke's was so full that we had to wait for a seat and, apparently, so was the Night Bazaar Branch. That is during low season, right before high season starts to slowly kick in.

Good signs as far as I am concerned.

Edited July 19, 2008 by Ulysses G.

[cmsally]

Seem to be a lot more European tourists around especially French, Swiss & Spanish.

However there are certainly a lot more hotels and guesthouses opening up.

Can't quite figure out the reasoning there when investment costs are so high for land,rent and building materials.

[Mapguy]

I'd be interested to hear if local business people notice a decline in American visitors before the decline in Euro visitors as the US is about 6 months ahead of Europe in this downward swing of the business cycle.

The buzz word in the US this summer and one that is spreading across the Atlantic is "Staycation" as people have vacations at home to save money

It is quite easy to cancel a vacation, if things are that serious and people aren't. I haven't noticed any drop in US visitors at all so far (although some other businesses say they have).

As far as "staying home" for vacation goes, most Western tourists tell me it is cheaper to come to Thailand than to travel in their home countries and they have no intention of locking themselves in their rooms to save money during their precious time off. Hopefully, many of the people who usually vacation in expensive countries in Europe will save money by downgrading to Thailand instead and save a bundle of money.

Last night at 10 PM, the Duke's was so full that we had to wait for a seat and, apparently, so was the Night Bazaar Branch. That is during low season, right before high season starts to slowly kick in.

Good signs as far as I am concerned.

I was at Giorgio's twice last week overlapping two seatings. Decent restaurant; not a backpackers' place. So-so the first night and pretty busy the second, but NO tourists. That was clear. Still --- yes --- there are more tourists in town (July). Should be! The European school and university holidays are on now and for a while! But, on casual observation, it doesn't seem as busy as one would hope it to be. I don't hang out at the airport, but I do count tour buses as I gol around. I don't see too many. I guess we will have to wait for the "numbers," such as they will be.

[lannarebirth]

Two months ago I was driving down Thapae Rd and I swear it looked nearly empty. Expected a tumbleweed to blow through. Last week I'm down by Thapae Gate and I see more tourists than I've ever seen this time of year. Are those perceptions correct, and if so what's the dealio?

[Ulysses G.]

You are correct on both counts. That is why I think that high season will be short, but sweet. Make money while you can!

[Gonzo the Face]

I heard a rumor that there was a tourist in town.

Any body see him..???????

[Ulysses G.]

My theory was that high season would be short, but decent. That was before all of the political nonsense in Bangkok.

Now, all bets are off.

[rishi]

I heard a rumor that there was a tourist in town.

Any body see him..???????

He has doubled and patronized my place for almost an hour now - they're German if that should make a difference for some statitics?

[Mapguy]

I haven't the foggiest idea where to go to get good figures on tourism. Some casual observations:

I have a couple of favorite personal measures, one of which is the prevalence of tour buses. Bad, bad news there from what I can see. Re Chiang Mai, it seems it is not just foreigners who might be staying away but also Thai tourists.

On the other hand, how crowded is it on the golf course? Some seem reasonably busy now, but I'm wondering if that isn't actually because of increased settlement of expats ( in the area.

Politics and bombs. I don't have a great deal of difficulty believing the 15-20% drop that TAT now publishes for the country in canceled reservations --- with more expected for the "High Season" if political stalemate continues in Bangkok. Unfortunately, it looks like it probably will continue for a while because of concerns that are a lot deeper than than the 7-8% share of the Thai GNP that tourism has. Fortunately, since a couple of "firecrackers" o/a New Years 2006-2007, things have been very quiet except in the South, which continues to be a tragic scene. But if anyone wants to scare off anyone other than the 20-something year-old crowd, who never read newspapers anyway, then all they need to do is light a few large firecrackers in phone boxes here and there.

The World Economy. It would appear that the excrement has indeed hit the air conditioning system! There's quite a bit of media hype, but people just aren't super enthusiastic about taking expensive trips when they are beginning to wonder what is going to happen to their pensions! The exception is the five-star crowd. But then, you'll have to talk to Four Seasons, Shangra-La, and the Chedi about that --- and I doubt they'll give you an honest answer! But then, do your own check: Go for dinner at one of those places on a Wednesday or Thursday night! I was at a very well-reputed hotel restaurant on one recent Saturday night and there were two other (tourist) customers there the whole night aside from our (local) party.

The Weather. Relating to Chiang Mai, too many statistics, like annual averages --- especially those comparing one place in Thailand with another --- are not particularly useful and give a wrong picture. Face it folks! Chiang Mai has a bitchin' bad few weeks from late February through early April! Tourists are nuts to come here then unless their goal is to shack up with bar girls in hotels and not see the light of day. Don't worry, guys, you can indeed see the natural beauty of the north in your hotel bedroom if not in the surrounding countryside which is covered with smoke! Screw annual pollution averages! Now, for example, and for about three months it has been absolutely delightful around here! And, even despite the problem of normal urban pollution, it will remain pretty dam_n fine for some months to come. But the seasonal problem can and must be solved. And I am not so much talking about tourism here as I am concerned with ameliorating the suffering of people who live here. It is first a genuine public health problem.

Oh yes, I went to UG's place recently. I pursued the racks for several minutes. I was the only guy there or anywhere in sight. I went to a very nice four-star plus hotel recently for a "do." On that Saturday evening, nobody but one tourist couple was there the whole evening; just locals, and only two tables the entire night. A friend recently reopened a pretty good restaurant in the Night Bazaar area after closing for two months for lack of business. Still looks dubious, apparently.

Well, we all have our tidbits of personal experience, but who can really say it looks good?!

Edited September 19, 2008 by Mapguy

[papajohn]

Good rant, hope you feel better now. I only wish the immigration folks are reading this forum as I am up for renewal next week

[Mapguy]

Looks like things are going from bad to worse to worst.

There's been discussion of tourism, but not much (except the thread on rising costs) re the impact on resident expats.

I know of one case in which a guy has pulled out of the market and "locked in" in his losses by doing so.

Some word from the Korean community that some are seriously thinking about heading home due to the poor Korean economy. The Australian dollar is doing a suicide dive.

Casual word in the wind of increasing numbers of condo "For Sale" signs.

Other comments?

[ThaiPauly]

If this is anything to judge whats happening in CM...

Last year I was looking for an office in Changklan Plaza, right next to the new Shangrila Hotel.

There were none available.

I was having a coffee last week in the Black Canyon outlet at the top of the Plaza, whilst driving round the Plaza to get back onto the main road I noticed that there were between 6 and 8 empty units with "To Let" signs on the windows.

I wonder what happened to those businesses?

[Gonzo the Face]

Numbers for the past 2 months have been absymal. Both Customer volume [count] and revenue. This is compared to same months previous years

But if you have a job to do, then there is only one acceptable answer,.... YOU DO IT !

Anything else is just an excuse.

If the mountain won't come to Mohammed, then move one of the two

I would say to those others doing some type of business here in CM, if you keep on doing business in the same way as in previous years, in this upcoming busy season, you will be making excuses in true Thai Fashion.

Rethink, Revamp, Adjust

[Ulysses G.]

Today, Dang at JJ's asked me if I had any suggestions to attract customers to his restaurant. Not when there are no customers to attract was all I could think of to say.

[ThaiPauly]

Rethink, Revamp, Adjust

There speaks someone who will get through this.....none of theis "What am I gona do...Gonzo knows what he has to do.

Admiarable

A PMA is essential for the coming (high) season.

I have been watching the Bloomberg Chanel for the last few hours...its like watching a horror movie

[Ulysses G.]

Of course, a big pension doesn't hurt anything!

[Mapguy]

Of course, a big pension doesn't hurt anything!

Indeed, indeed! But I suspect many pension returns will soon be --- if not already are --- more than disappointing. Depends on the type of benefit plan. And there are those in Chiang Mai living off personal savings while anticipating retirement pensions at a "certain age." And there are those who never were qualified for pensions who have been living off personal investments. In any case, take personal investments or pensions, and I suggest that there might be a rather gruesome impact upon the expat community in Chiang Mai. I am curious about evidence.

[Ulysses G.]

I completely agree, but am hoping that things never get to that point.

Watching the news right now is just plain scary!

[rishi]

Of course, a big pension doesn't hurt anything!

Indeed, indeed! But I suspect many pension returns will soon be --- if not already are --- more than disappointing. Depends on the type of benefit plan. And there are those in Chiang Mai living off personal savings while anticipating retirement pensions at a "certain age." And there are those who never were qualified for pensions who have been living off personal investments. In any case, take personal investments or pensions, and I suggest that there might be a rather gruesome impact upon the expat community in Chiang Mai. I am curious about evidence.

Do you ever bother, Mapguy, to notice which thread you're in? - What the heck does pension returns have to do with whether or not business owners have had an up or down season?

Sorry, I'll back off - you're right of course - reduced liquidity on pension plans has a lot to do with how well old fashioned businesses catering mainly to a TV retiree audience and easygoing tourists will do.

[Gonzo the Face]

How about some of you who are on the streets of CM more often,... are you seeing tourists to any degree, how about compared with previous years.

Do the think the Bkk conflict, is stopping tourist from coming to Thailand and/or CM?

[Ulysses G.]

I have just visited both Bangkok and Pattaya and have never seen so few tourists in either place.

It is usually very difficult to get a reservation at the Nana Hotel in Bangkok without booking in advance, year round, but I walked in and immediatly got a good room near the swimming pool, and they were actually polite to me at the front desk for a change. There were hardly even any degenerates in the lobby for 4 days which I have never seen before.

Pattaya was almost completely deserted on weekdays, but better on weekends due to Bangkok expats taking a few days off.

I have heard reports that Phuket is doing badly also, but have not remembered to ask on the Thai Visa Phuket forum. Has anyone heard anything different?

Gonzo wonders if the conflict in Bangkok is affecting tourism in Chiang Mai. I don't see how it couldn't be. The big economic scare is putting many, many people off traveling to start with, but why risk ruining your precious vacation by going to a country that seems on the verge of a civil war?

[ThaiPauly]

My freind runs a Golf Tour Company here....he has not noticed any decline in bookings for THIS high season as most of his holidays were booked before all the troubles began. He has not had one cancellation from the UK

It's a "wait and see" situation for next year though

[whiterussian]

Last week Central Pai was bully <deleted>, with prices already notched up to the 'do you think im stupid?' range.

Some some Japanese tourists, and a few germans tonight at work tonight, and it seems that the Thais are starting to feel the pinch. Today is pay day, its was a dull affair. Usually its pay day for us shopkeepers. Maybe tomorrow :/

Edited October 31, 2008 by UKWEBPRO

[RAZZELL]

Hopefully, many of the people who usually vacation in expensive countries in Europe will save money by downgrading to Thailand instead and save a bundle of money.

You've obviously not seen the current exchange rates

Thai's will never believe it, but... THAILAND IS NO LONGER CHEAP!

RAZZ

[Gonzo the Face]

Well let me give a few of my thoughts on the subject of why business is down.

I think in reality its a combination of quite a few things

* People world wide are cutting back or eliminating their holidays due to overriding issues such as will I have a job in 6 mos; if I have no job, what about my house payments, my car payments etc. Lets cut back on the holiday expense or maybe elimininate it this year. We'll treat ourselves better next year.

* The higher cost of oil/fuel.... ='s much higher cost of transportation. Yes, the oil prices have dropped around half in the past 2-3 months, but reports that I have read indicate that no one has informed the airline industry. They do not seem to be in a hurry to cut the fuel surcharges.

* The Bangkok problem is on the news almost daily internationally. Yes , we know that the problem is limited to a very small section in Bkk, but the good people back in Podunk, Europe or America see it as THAILAND. I'd hate to mention the number of times I have been asked by people "back there" is it safe or is there a problem in coming to CM. They perceive a potential saftey issue. This does address the deep south problem that has now gone of for a some years.

* Also now it has been reported that the Bangkok Political situation has spread to Chiang Mai with the firebombing of a car a couple days ago.

* I was told that there are 26 countries that have now posted traveler advisorys re. visiting Thailand. Maybe more or less now.

There are probably more issues, but I think it is a combination of all of the above. With MONEY , or possible lack there of, that is the root cause of it all

In any event we are all here, we have got the difficulty and we will either live with it or we won't ....

However I am seriously thinking about expanding and opening "GONZO'S SOUP KITCHEN. Hard time bowl of soup and croutons for about 350 baht..... Hey this is Thailand. If I didn't make it last year, this year I must raise the price to cover my loss.

Gonzo

[Ulysses G.]

It is great to know that you have our best interests at heart.