Coronavirus brings UK economy to its knees in April - PMI

[snoop1130]

Coronavirus brings UK economy to its knees in April - PMI

By Andy Bruce

 

FILE PHOTO: A general view of an empty high street in Hemel Hempstead as the spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues, Britain March 24, 2020. REUTERS/Matthew Childs/File Photo

 

LONDON (Reuters) - Coronavirus hit Britain’s economy in April with more force than even the most pessimistic forecasters had feared as businesses reported a historic collapse in demand during a nationwide lockdown, a survey showed on Thursday.

 

The IHS Markit/CIPS Flash UK Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to a new record low of 12.9 from 36.0 in March - not even close to the weakest forecast in a Reuters poll of economists that had pointed to a reading of 31.4.

 

It was a similar picture in France and Germany. [EUR/PMIS]

 

The scale of the collapse in Britain’s PMI all but guarantees a huge contraction in the world’s fifth-largest economy and will add to doubts about whether financial help from the government has reached businesses quickly enough.

 

“Like those across Europe, these are shocking figures,” said ING economist James Smith, who predicts it will 2022 at the earlier until Britain’s economy recovers its pre-outbreak size.

 

IHS Markit said the dire readings will inevitably raise questions about the cost of the lockdown and how long it will last.

 

The figures on the face of it pointed to a 7% quarter-on-quarter contraction in the economy, although IHS Markit cautioned that this was likely to be an understatement as its survey does not cover retailers or most self-employed people.

 

A Reuters poll of economists on Thursday pointed to a roughly 13% contraction in economic output in the current quarter, which would be the largest since records began after the World War Two. [ECILT/GB]

 

Data company IHS Markit said 81% of British services companies and 75% of manufacturers reported a fall in business activity.

 

Only some medical and food and drink manufacturers reported growth in April, and a handful of services companies linked to online retail and the public sector.

 

Employment in British companies fell at the fastest pace since PMI records started in the 1990s, although in some cases this reflected use of the government’s furlough scheme, data company IHS Markit said.

 

Government budget forecasters last week said unemployment could rise as high as 10% with an extra 2 million people losing their jobs if a three-month lockdown was only slowly lifted over the next three months.

 

Companies slashed prices at a record pace to prop up demand, the survey showed.

 

The PMI for the services sector, which accounts for about 80% of Britain’s private sector economy, fell to 12.3 from 34.5, another record low.

 

A slight improvement in optimism was the only bright spot for services companies.

 

Manufacturers fared little better as output and new orders crashed.

 

As in earlier months, a lengthening of supplier delivery times - in normal times is a sign of healthy demand - greatly flattered the headline PMI for manufacturers, although it still fell to a record low of 32.9, from 47.8 previously.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-04-23

 

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[johng]

Well surprise surprise you shut everything down  what else to expect...the "cure" is worse than the disease !

[Surelynot]

They should have advised complete isolation for all those 'at risk' (over 65's, underlying conditions etc) and let the rest of the population choose..... take a chance and keep the economy going .....or go into isolation yourselves.

[Davo369]

I'll be on my knees later.... after a skin full..   

But before that, I must do my daily walk over the park.????

Edited April 23, 2020 by Davo369

[sirineou]

covid 19 finished the job , we all know what started it. 

Simple, Get a reliable antibody test in the market and get everyone tested, Regardless of if antibodies provide immunity or not, it will give people confidence of "hey I had it and it was not that bad" and to go out there and get things moving again.  

WE NEED AN ANTIBODY TEST!!!!

[sezze]

5 minutes ago, sirineou said:

covid 19 finished the job , we all know what started it. 

Simple, Get a reliable antibody test in the market and get everyone tested, Regardless of if antibodies provide immunity or not, it will give people confidence of "hey I had it and it was not that bad" and to go out there and get things moving again.  

WE NEED AN ANTIBODY TEST!!!!

Some countries are testing and the results are not very good or are good depending on how you see it . That nr is still very low , meaning around 5% . This means that not so many people had it yet , which also means that the cases been out so far are only the very tip of the possible iceberg .

[sirineou]

23 minutes ago, sezze said:

Some countries are testing and the results are not very good or are good depending on how you see it . That nr is still very low , meaning around 5% . This means that not so many people had it yet , which also means that the cases been out so far are only the very tip of the possible iceberg .

I don't profess to know more than what most of us know, I also repeat what I read.     There are some extensive antibody tests  being done in California and Germany  that suggest a much higher and asymptomatic infection rate, which , if true. changes the death rate statistics. 

  Getting a regular Covid 19 test only tells me if I have the virus at the time of the test, It does not give me any confidence that I will not get it five minutes later. 

Returning to work will. IMO.  require a certain amount of confidence from the general public that it is relatively safe to do so.  I think the antibody test will be the fastest way to accomplish that goal. 

"Two Antibody Studies Say Coronavirus Infections Are More Common Than We Think. "

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/stephaniemlee/coronavirus-antibody-test-santa-clara-los-angeles-stanford

Edited April 23, 2020 by sirineou

[brokenbone]

no problem, just devalue currency until it reflect actual production.

expat retirees will take the hit extra hard, but,

we all know english gents has perfected the stiff upper lip response

[jesimps]

9 hours ago, brokenbone said:

no problem, just devalue currency until it reflect actual production.

expat retirees will take the hit extra hard, but,

we all know english gents has perfected the stiff upper lip response

A message to you from all British expats:   Go stick your head up a dead bear's bum!

[Proboscis]

15 hours ago, Surelynot said:

They should have advised complete isolation for all those 'at risk' (over 65's, underlying conditions etc) and let the rest of the population choose..... take a chance and keep the economy going .....or go into isolation yourselves.

Even if you took the over-65s and those with specific conditions out of the equation, the NHS would have been swamped within a couple of weeks. Even before the official shutdown, there was evidence that the British public were social distancing in a big way. This can be seen in the data.

 

Besides, if you took everyone out who is on blood pressure medication, has any underlying condition that we currently worry might be implicated and all those over 60, that could be up to half the population anyway. You could still lose up to 100,000 lives anyway.

[baansgr]

I just read, UK is letting in 15,000 a day from all over the world without any checks whatsoever...just waltz straight out the airport and infect everyone...stupid or what

[phantomfiddler]

3 hours ago, jesimps said:

A message to you from all British expats:   Go stick your head up a dead bear's bum!

 

Edited April 24, 2020 by phantomfiddler
Total deletion, misread the post !

[Isaan sailor]

I hope the Brits never forget who covered up and then brought them Wuhan virus.

[Surelynot]

5 hours ago, baansgr said:

I just read, UK is letting in 15,000 a day from all over the world without any checks whatsoever...just waltz straight out the airport and infect everyone...stupid or what

Yep. Just go on any flight checker. People flooding in from all over the world. This was raised at the last briefing the answer given................someone could be a carrier without symptoms so there is no point in checking. That was it! UNBELIEVABLE.

Edited April 24, 2020 by Surelynot