Are lockdowns worth their costs?

[Fairynuff]

With so many pre existing conditions and alcohol dependency talked about it’s surprising that so many seem fearless to the potential of this virus. But then I suppose that goes back to desperation to remove the alcohol ban.

i understand the hardship many are suffering but I’m sure if you asked some of those people they’d say they prefer not to die. We all have the option to help those people.

[RBOP]

32 minutes ago, UbonThani said:

That doesnt make sense.

Neither did his comment. I was being sarcastic like Trump. ????

[murraynz]

On 4/26/2020 at 9:22 AM, tonray said:

I'm alive and healthy and am saving at least 10,000 baht per month on spending...so YES !

Im saving 25,000+ baht per month,but life is getting very boring.

I think the lockdown is necessary,but feel so sorry for the loss of jobs for thai people.

The tourist areas will take years to recover.

There will be big influxes of chinese and indians,but they are budget tourists. 

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, RBOP said:

So yes, lock down worth it both morally and econically. 

Can you elaborate on why and how lockdowns are economically worth it?

[LukKrueng]

On 4/26/2020 at 8:50 AM, Brunolem said:

As Angela Merkel and many others already said weeks ago, sooner or later around 70% of the population will be infected.

Many people said just about the same - eventually most of the population (if not all) will get infected. The lockdown and all other measures are put in place in order to slow it down so there are less critically ill people at any given point in time so the hospitals won't be overwhelmed and more people will die due to lack of equipment or medical care. 

Personally I'm against lockdown and many other strict measures. People should be told the facts (problem is no one actually KNOW anything for a fact...), explained the risks, but should be allowed to decide for themselves if they want to go out and live normally - work, eat out, shop, meet with friends etc' or just stay home and hide. 

As it is now so many people are going to be (many already are) so badly effected economically and might not be able to recover. And I'm not talking Thailand only. All countries. 

[dpcjsr]

The lock down has never been based on facts. Just an idea that sounds good. It could easily be doing more harm than good. No one knows. WHO does not know. 

 

That is why the government has decided to extend it for another month!?

[Pedrogaz]

I think it has saved a vast number of deaths. I am with the scientists on this one. Is a lockdown desirable by itself, no of course not...but with social distancing, masks, curfew, no alcohol sales etc I think it has worked wonders in Thailand.

 

In my mind the government and Prayut have played a blinder here.

[lagavulin1]

On 4/26/2020 at 10:29 AM, mauGR1 said:

I value life quite much, but is it worth to destabilize and starve millions to save hundreds ?

I would ask you the same questions, how much you value life, and how many dead is acceptable.

It was clear from the beginning that the cure was worse than the disease, except for the ones who cannot look further than their belly.

So much of that is true but it leaves questions unanswered which never will be. If we'd let CV rip how many of the starving would now be dead due to CV. Inherantly the numbers get closer. The last unchecked pandemic was 1918 Spanish flu. Millions died. We will never know which way CV2 would have gone because its way different. 

The only certainty IMHO is CV2 will join the growing list of "complaints" which come around regularly. 

Next steps? We have to get the World running pronto ????. 

 

[mauGR1]

1 hour ago, UbonThani said:

1 hour ago, RBOP said:

Another one: "Anti-Vaxxer, its my body"

Nice guy.

That doesnt make sense.

Well, "it's my body" makes a lot of sense to me.

The vax thing, that's a lot to debate about that.

[Brunolem]

47 minutes ago, Fairynuff said:

With so many pre existing conditions and alcohol dependency talked about it’s surprising that so many seem fearless to the potential of this virus. 

Fearless?

 

I wonder what our grandfathers would think seeing so many of us running for cover in the face of such minimal risk.

 

These real men didn't have an 80% probability of immunity when they were hit by hails of bullets flying around the beaches of Normandy...

 

And what about their fathers who came back from the trenches, only to be hit by the Spanish flu?

 

It is always important to put things into perspective.

 

Who among us would rather get a cancer than the coronavirus?

 

Not me, that's for sure...

 

 

 

 

 

 

[1FinickyOne]

On 4/26/2020 at 10:38 AM, Mama Noodle said:

Do you have to go out to make your money

This is very painful for many people... there are so many who fall between the cracks. I have friends who are really suffering and not knowing how they will survive and support their children and families. 

 

I have been in favor of a limited lockdown, and hope this period has served to teach others to be respectful, but I think we do need w/some restrictions, to get on with being alive. 

[Brunolem]

6 minutes ago, Pedrogaz said:

I am with the scientists on this one.

 

I think it has worked wonders in Thailand.

 

In my mind the government and Prayut have played a blinder here.

You should rather say that you are "with SOME of the scientists", that is mostly those who are both close to the circles of power and to the pharmaceutical industry.

 

As for Thailand, we need to wait a little bit more to know if it has "worked wonders".

 

If the lockdown is over by the end of the month, then yes, but if restrictions are kept in place, that will mean that the numbers we are fed are bogus...by a long shot...

[RBOP]

28 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Can you elaborate on why and how lockdowns are economically worth it?

This video explains it quite well. 

 

 

[cdemundo]

33 minutes ago, dpcjsr said:

The lock down has never been based on facts. Just an idea that sounds good. It could easily be doing more harm than good. No one knows. WHO does not know. 

 

That is why the government has decided to extend it for another month!?

There are some interesting comparisons on the web of the responses of St. Louis vs Philadelphia as far as lockdown and number of deaths and when they occurred in each city during the 1918 Flu pandemic.  The difficulty as has been said is that you don't have a controlled experiment and you have to interpret based on assumptions.  Even so, you might be interested to look at those articles... or not.

[Thomas J]

On 4/26/2020 at 10:23 AM, Sujo said:

Depends how much you value life over money.

Sujo  

Is a life taken from suicide because of a job loss worth less than one from coronavirus.  Is a life lost from starvation worth less than one from coronavirus. 

So far there have been 52 deaths in Thailand out of a nation of 70 million people 

 

Road accidents accounted for 20,169 deaths in Thailand last year, THAT IS 55 PER DAY EACH AND EVERY DAY. 

 

Do you then favor stopping driving to save lives? 

[Sumarianson]

Simple answer: NO. Not worth it at all.

[Fairynuff]

45 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Fearless?

 

I wonder what our grandfathers would think seeing so many of us running for cover in the face of such minimal risk.

 

These real men didn't have an 80% probability of immunity when they were hit by hails of bullets flying around the beaches of Normandy...

 

And what about their fathers who came back from the trenches, only to be hit by the Spanish flu?

 

It is always important to put things into perspective.

 

Who among us would rather get a cancer than the coronavirus?

 

Not me, that's for sure...

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’m completely baffled by your logic in making such inappropriate comparisons. You make any kind of debate impossible.

[Xaos]

Japan, Sweden little to no lockdown and very few deaths. Tokyo most dense city. If they can go without lockdown why Thailand can't? 

[scubascuba3]

1 hour ago, Pedrogaz said:

I think it has saved a vast number of deaths. I am with the scientists on this one. Is a lockdown desirable by itself, no of course not...but with social distancing, masks, curfew, no alcohol sales etc I think it has worked wonders in Thailand.

 

In my mind the government and Prayut have played a blinder here.

The problem with scientists is they are very single minded and aren't taking into account the economic consequences aka mass job losses and people starving

[mauGR1]

I did a math, since January 2020 apparently there is about 0,0148 chance to die from coronavirus.

For a comparison, apparently one has about 0,685 chances to die from cancer.

Not sure the numbers are correct, so feel free to correct.

Looking at these numbers, are the lock downs worth ?

[chessman]

With Thailand, a lot about this is about the management of risk.

 

The government can look at New York, Madrid, Bergamo, London or Stockholm or other urban centres and think that level of outbreak would be really bad here, let’s stop that. So what are the chances of that happening in the Bangkok area with no lockdown? 
 

even if you think it is less than 50%, it’s probably a good thing generally that governments err on the side of caution when it comes to decisions about people’s lives.
 

then you also have to think about how much extra extra economic activity would be happening if there was no lockdown? A fair amount in some places, very little in others. And then what is worse for the economy, 3 months of a very strict lockdown or things being unstable for a long time because the virus continues to circulate at a significant rate

 

 

 

 

[Brunolem]

27 minutes ago, Fairynuff said:

I’m completely baffled by your logic in making such inappropriate comparisons. You make any kind of debate impossible.

Baffled certainly, and probably out of arguments, which is why you chose to deflect... 

 

Comparing guys returning from war to face a killer virus, with guys returning from the movie theater to face an elderly-killer virus, seems appropriate to me. 

 

But feel free to provide other, better, comparisons, showing that we are still tough sons of b.. ches after all... 

[scubascuba3]

Northern Territory in Australia has had very low cases, now none apparently. That's another hot and humid place

[Fairynuff]

17 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

The problem with scientists is they are very single minded and aren't taking into account the economic consequences aka mass job losses and people starving

Economics don’t matter to dead people

[chessman]

49 minutes ago, Thomas J said:

Road accidents accounted for 20,169 deaths in Thailand last year, THAT IS 55 PER DAY EACH AND EVERY DAY. 

 

Do you then favor stopping driving to save lives? 

Actually, almost everybody would if there was an infectious disease that was doubling the amount of worldwide road deaths every 3 or 4 days.

[UbonThani]

4 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

Northern Territory in Australia has had very low cases, now none apparently. That's another hot and humid place

low pop as well

[johno49]

NO

[JusticeGB]

If Thailand stops Songkran every year more deaths will be prevented than from the overreach of the lockdown. 

[NoshowJones]

On 4/26/2020 at 10:23 AM, Sujo said:

Depends how much you value life over money.

 

How many dead is acceptable.

The first sentence, I think the fair minded of us know the answer to that where Thailand is concerned.

The second. none if it can be avoided.

[chilly07]

If Wuhan had been locked down in November when this started we wouldn't be in this situation. Air travel spread the virus worldwide before the Chinese acted. UK does include care home deaths now