Lockdown update

[sucit]

2 hours ago, kenk24 said:

road accidents don't increase exponentially because of each other... this is a highly contagious virus and these types of comparisons are meaningless... 

Or more aptly, the comparison does not suit your position, so it is meaningless. 

 

So no... if 50 people die from X and 20,000 people die from Y, it does mean something, and there are many valuable conclusions to be drawn from that.

 

It just does not seem to mean much to you. That is fine, have faulty logic all you want, just do not try and force it onto others. 

[farang51]

7 minutes ago, sucit said:

Or more aptly, the comparison does not suit your position, so it is meaningless.

The comparison is meaningless for everyone that understand what "exponentially" means.

[torturedsole]

17 minutes ago, sucit said:

So no... if 50 people die from X and 20,000 people die from Y, it does mean something, and there are many valuable conclusions to be drawn from that.

During lockdown the daily death toll on Thai roads has significantly decreased.  It will, post-lockdown, increase again to the usual world-leading levels.

[SidJames]

6 hours ago, Phulublub said:

Do you (and everyone else who trots this out) ever stop to consider that maybe the restrictions that have been put in place are the reason, or contributing enormously to the fact that there are so few deaths here?

 

PH

I suppose that makes sense if you believe in Santa Claus & also believe that the Vietnamese government also did an absolutely outstanding job of their lockdown where a country just shy of 100 million that shares a land border with China of over 1400kms & had zero C19 deaths.

I can't understand why European, Iranian & the US governments aren't on their knees begging Vietnam for advice, can you?
I wonder what other life choices I should make here after considering the advice from what appears to be a dictatorship in all but name.

 

[JensenZ]

6 hours ago, champers said:

I read somewhere that 100,00 arrived in Thailand from Wuhan during the period, many on direct flights. Wuhan is the size of London; they travelled accross the globe but due to the proximity to SE Asia moreso to Thailand and other ASEAN countries.

I don't know about size, but if you mean population, Wuhan has nearly 25% more people than London.

[Scott]

A conspiracy post and replies have been removed.  

 

[bodga]

9 hours ago, Phulublub said:

Do you (and everyone else who trots this out) ever stop to consider that maybe the restrictions that have been put in place are the reason, or contributing enormously to the fact that there are so few deaths here?

 

PH

Do you consider that no  one really  knows yet? even foreign countries are trying to see why Thailand  has  not had an apparent mass contamination despite the influx of Chinese visitors way after it was  known.

[bodga]

9 hours ago, darksidedog said:

Of course, it should be that there is no alchohol to buy, but as I can personally confirm, as of two hours ago it was freely available locally to here, with queues akin to a free food handout. Must be well connected to do that. Same place when we had the coup 10PM curfew had huge queues throughout the night. Pattaya checkpoints less than a mile away too!

The whole thing is a  farce , I see  many of the so  called  rules  flouted, in fact virtually  all. There is  still rampant burning around by me, it  used to be at  night but now even in the day and plainly  visible

[scubascuba3]

9 hours ago, Phulublub said:

Do you (and everyone else who trots this out) ever stop to consider that maybe the restrictions that have been put in place are the reason, or contributing enormously to the fact that there are so few deaths here?

 

PH

No real proof lockdowns work except in killing the economy

[1FinickyOne]

6 hours ago, sucit said:

Or more aptly, the comparison does not suit your position, so it is meaningless. 

 

So no... if 50 people die from X and 20,000 people die from Y, it does mean something, and there are many valuable conclusions to be drawn from that.

 

It just does not seem to mean much to you. That is fine, have faulty logic all you want, just do not try and force it onto others. 

as others have said, you need to understand the meaning of the word exponential... 

[farang51]

2 hours ago, scubascuba3 said:

No real proof lockdowns work except in killing the economy

You do realize that there is an incubation period of 2-14 days and that it takes another 7-14 days before people dies? The graphs you present shows very clearly that the restrictions work.

[Phulublub]

5 hours ago, SidJames said:

I suppose that makes sense if you believe in Santa Claus & also believe that the Vietnamese government also did an absolutely outstanding job of their lockdown where a country just shy of 100 million that shares a land border with China of over 1400kms & had zero C19 deaths.

I can't understand why European, Iranian & the US governments aren't on their knees begging Vietnam for advice, can you?
I wonder what other life choices I should make here after considering the advice from what appears to be a dictatorship in all but name.

 

Suggest you make a life choice of leaving Thailand since you dislike it so much here.

 

Pg

Edited April 27, 2020 by Phulublub
typos

[Phulublub]

3 hours ago, bodga said:

Do you consider that no  one really  knows yet? even foreign countries are trying to see why Thailand  has  not had an apparent mass contamination despite the influx of Chinese visitors way after it was  known.

Exactly...which is why is used the word "maybe".  It was not me that was so definitely sure on any conclusions whatsoever.

 

PH

Edited April 27, 2020 by Phulublub
typo

[Phulublub]

2 hours ago, scubascuba3 said:

No real proof lockdowns work except in killing the economy

 

Actually not true that lockdowns necessarily kill the economy.  Anyone sufficiently interested is invited to research the cities of Minneapolis and St Paul during and after the 1918 flu pandemic*

 

Basically Minneapolis instigated an early and strong lockdown.  St Paul, justover the river, did not.  St Paul had a high spike and big death toll.  Minneapolis smoothed the curve and reduced both the peak and the number of deaths but had a longer tail.  It was Minneapolis, not St Paul, which thrived thereafter.

 

Now, there will have been myriad factors (just as there are now across the World) that will have affected their recovery, but one cannot make bald and certain statements like "No real proof lockdowns work except in killing the economy" without a great deal of further experience, knowledge and research and it is possible/probably/likely/certain that the lockdown was a contributory factor in their subsequent success.

 

PH

 

*This is commonly called the Spanish flu, but should, using the logic of DJT and friends, more properly and in all probability, be called the American flu - please also research why before calling me out on this.

[scubascuba3]

33 minutes ago, farang51 said:

You do realize that there is an incubation period of 2-14 days and that it takes another 7-14 days before people dies? The graphs you present shows very clearly that the restrictions work.

What it clearly shows is Sweden with no lockdown has a similar trend as the other countries with lockdown

[Phulublub]

4 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

What it clearly shows is Sweden with no lockdown has a similar trend as the other countries with lockdown

Not so sure that is the case as Sweden's curve has yet to start declining, unlike those of Norway and Denmark.  Sweden also has considerably more deaths per capita than either (217 per million against 73 and 37) which is rather closer to the UK (305).

 

However, the UK fgiure is understated because this is only covid deaths from patients dying in hospital (which was not at all publicised by the UK Government until someone else noticed - worth noting for the Thai knockers who do not believe the Government figures here).  So maybe Denmark and Norway are massaging their figures too.  Who knows?

 

One thing I do wonder is that both London and New York - where the bulk of their country's cases are - are MAJOR international air hubs.  How much of a factor is that in the early spread rate?  (And I see that London will soon (soon!!!) introduce measuresto test arriving passengers for symptoms.

 

PH

 

Figures from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[jacko45k]

10 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

What it clearly shows is Sweden with no lockdown has a similar trend as the other countries with lockdown

I took a look at this and my thoughts were that the graphs were different, but the expected much higher infection and death rates are not evident. Sweden seems to have a more spiked and waved set of numbers.... there is a chance Sweden's numbers will not roll down like those of W. Europe and ultimately produce higher per capita totals.

[Kerryd]

I wrote about this (a couple of times) in the Coronavirus thread.

Sweden's "Infection" rate is low because they do NOT "aggressively" test the population. Only people with the "most severe" symptoms are tested.
As as result, the true number of people infected in Sweden is not known and can't really be effectively estimated.

That makes Sweden's "Mortality" rate appear higher (when rates of infection/deaths are compared to other countries).

Sweden only really banned gatherings of more than 50 people. Schools, parks, restaurants and bars are still open.

HOWEVER - the Swedish government's own studies initially estimated that by May, 1/3rd of the population could be infected. They then revised that figure to "only" 26% !!

And some experts (in Sweden) think it will actually be closer to 50% !!

A BBC article on the issue: https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/has-sweden-got-its-coronavirus-science-right/ar-BB13aHiB

Keep in mind that a lot of people can be infected and not show symptoms, but are still able to pass the virus on to others.

Keep in mind that at one point, Sweden was ranked something like 24th overall for total deaths from the virus, until they experienced nearly 400 deaths - in just 3 days !!

That jumped them up to #14 overall. I just looked and they are still at #14 for deaths. (21st overall for recorded Infections.) - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2019–20_coronavirus_pandemic_data

[brucec64]

3 hours ago, scubascuba3 said:

No real proof lockdowns work except in killing the economy

The only proof here is that you don't understand charts. This chart shows the exact opposite of what you are trying to "prove". Sweden has 10x the deaths than Norway, even though only 2x the population, with comparable population densities. The UK comparison is not really valid due to population densities. UK has a population density of about 20x compared to Sweden, and has a correspondingly higher overall case rate. 

Edited April 27, 2020 by brucec64

[scubascuba3]

8 minutes ago, brucec64 said:

The only proof here is that you don't understand charts. This chart shows the exact opposite of what you are trying to "prove". Sweden has 10x the deaths than Norway, even though only 2x the population. I think the real thing that has been exposed with this virus is the failure in the educational system of many on this forum, a general lack of analytical skills, and a heavy reliance on memes and infowars.com as a primary news source.

What is clear to me is people are so single minded about the virus and lockdown they can't see the economic consequences

[sucit]

10 hours ago, farang51 said:

The comparison is meaningless for everyone that understand what "exponentially" means.

The comparison is meaningless for people who do not like facts and like to live in their little fear bubbles. 

[SidJames]

Here's the percentage of population that have NOT died with COVID

Belgium   99.944%
Spain:      99.956%
Italy:        99.957%
France     99.965%
UK           99.972%
NL           99.975% 
Sweden   99.980%

[Phulublub]

1 hour ago, Kerryd said:

That makes Sweden's "Mortality" rate appear higher (when rates of infection/deaths are compared to other countries).

Not sure if you are replying to me - but my figures are deaths per million if population, so nothing to do with testing (and hence infection) rates

 

PH

[Phulublub]

1 hour ago, scubascuba3 said:

What is clear to me is people are so single minded about the virus and lockdown they can't see the economic consequences

Did you have a look at the background for the after effects of 1918 for Minneapolis and St Paul?

 

Just because other people are singleminded/blinkered/blinded by their own preconceptions, does not mean that you have to do the same.

 

PH

[sucit]

1 hour ago, brucec64 said:

The only proof here is that you don't understand charts. This chart shows the exact opposite of what you are trying to "prove". Sweden has 10x the deaths than Norway, even though only 2x the population, with comparable population densities. The UK comparison is not really valid due to population densities. UK has a population density of about 20x compared to Sweden, and has a correspondingly higher overall case rate. 

The Swedes I assume would have stated before implementing their policy, that they would see more immediate death. Long term, I assume they would say, they will see similar death numbers to other countries, yet they will assuredly save lives by not destroying their economy (to as great a degree). 

 

It does not seem like you are understanding what they goals are.

 

Their hospital systems are not overwhelmed. They are not locked down to as great of an extent as most others. 

 

The real point here is, you do not know that the Swedish model is incorrect, just as I would not know if the lockdown procedures are correct. I have my guesses, but we will see in a year or two. Just don't forget you have to add the economic impact via death toll to the numbers in the end. 

[sucit]

2 hours ago, Phulublub said:

Not so sure that is the case as Sweden's curve has yet to start declining, unlike those of Norway and Denmark.  Sweden also has considerably more deaths per capita than either (217 per million against 73 and 37) which is rather closer to the UK (305).

 

However, the UK fgiure is understated because this is only covid deaths from patients dying in hospital (which was not at all publicised by the UK Government until someone else noticed - worth noting for the Thai knockers who do not believe the Government figures here).  So maybe Denmark and Norway are massaging their figures too.  Who knows?

 

One thing I do wonder is that both London and New York - where the bulk of their country's cases are - are MAJOR international air hubs.  How much of a factor is that in the early spread rate?  (And I see that London will soon (soon!!!) introduce measuresto test arriving passengers for symptoms.

 

PH

 

Figures from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

One thing I will note is the arguments against their model are quickly evolving. 

 

A while back it was "they will be overrun just as Italy was...". Which clearly has not happened. If lockdowns are so effective, why are rates between Sweden and [pick any other country at random with a strong lockdown] not statistically different in most cases? 

Edited April 27, 2020 by sucit

[Phulublub]

1 minute ago, sucit said:

One thing I will note is the arguments against their model are quickly evolving. 

 

A while back it was "they will be overrun just as Italy was...". Which clearly has not happened. If lockdowns are so effective, why are rates between Sweden and pick any other country at random with a strong lockdown not statistically different in most cases? 

I agree that things are evvvling.  There are probably some who are hoping that Sweden will see a marked increase just to prove that they were right all along.  Sad, but that's how some are. 

 

That said, the closest countries to Sweden - Denmark and Norway - both have lock down.  Both have markedly lower death rates (death per populatuon, nothing to do with infection rates or testing rates, or anything else) than Sweden.  So far.

 

PH

 

[farang51]

57 minutes ago, sucit said:

The comparison is meaningless for people who do not like facts and like to live in their little fear bubbles. 

OK, let's make a another comparison. I will make you a deal; I will give you a fixed amount of money if you will give me an exponential amount of money.

 

I will give you 1 million baht, if you:

give me 1 satang today

Next Monday, you give me 2 satang

Next Monday again, you give me 4 satang

and so forth, exponentially doubling the amount each Monday the rest of the year.

 

Heck, I will even give you 1 million dollar if you do that.

 

If you still do not understand the difference of a non exponential and an exponential amount, then quickly do accept my deal before I regret.

[jacko45k]

1 hour ago, SidJames said:

Here's the percentage of population that have NOT died with COVID

Belgium   99.944%
Spain:      99.956%
Italy:        99.957%
France     99.965%
UK           99.972%
NL           99.975% 
Sweden   99.980%

So 99.972% have died of something else since last night?

[scubascuba3]

1 hour ago, Phulublub said:

Did you have a look at the background for the after effects of 1918 for Minneapolis and St Paul?

 

Just because other people are singleminded/blinkered/blinded by their own preconceptions, does not mean that you have to do the same.

 

PH

If you supply some links maybe people will bother to read it