BKK condos - are there really so many empty and to rent ?

[tebee]

My stepson is is going to be starting his 4 year surgical training at a central BKK hospital, near where the expressway crosses Silom. My wife wanted to buy a condo near there for him, but i thought rental was a much better idea, even though it goes against the grain somewhat, both of us have rental properties, either in Europe or Bangkok.

 

What shocked me though, was looking at the shear numbers of condos to let, especially at some of the newer developments. did a search on Renthub https://www.renthub.in.th/en/condo/bts-surasak

 

Some of the condo complexes have hundreds and even thousands of condos listed for rental.

 

For example  Noble Revo Silom - this has 2320 rental listings - I'm not sure how many units it has or how many of these are duplicates for the same unit, but it seems there must be a lot of empty units.

 

So are there a lot of empty units and if so why haven't rental rates come down. We are finding hard to find something in stepsons price range and he's a dr so not exactly low paid. 

 

 

[rodknock]

that's a big YES!!

check out craig's list also for rentals.

[Tops]

60% of all condos built after 2014 are unsold...

[timendres]

26 minutes ago, tebee said:

For example  Noble Revo Silom - this has 2320 rental listings - I'm not sure how many units it has or how many of these are duplicates for the same unit, but it seems there must be a lot of empty units.

A client of ours who is a real estate agent explained to me how this happens. He showed me a property on Hipflat that has exactly 632 units. But Hipflat showed over 4,000 listings for the property. It is because of the absurd algorithm that Hipflat uses to present the properties. If a real estate agent can list enough rooms for the property, they can "push out" all of the others and become the only agent listing rooms for the property. So they will list the same rooms dozens of times to "take over" the property page. Hipflat is simply broken.

[looking for LIFE insurance]

Don't buy anything unless you plan on keeping it forever.  I am NOT anti-buying property.  Quite the opposite.  There are going to be much, much better deals out there in 3- 6 months.

[dimitriv]

In Bangkok there are 525,889 condos and houses with almost zero electricity usage. It doesn't mean that they are all for sale. Some are probably owned by people who do not use them.

 

 

 

[samsensam]

 

i have a thai friend who lives in nontaburi, he bought two, maybe more, condos in developments over the past couple of years, he had the plan to sell them off on a quick turn round. unfortunately the market is giving little or no profit so the condos sit there empty waiting for the market to improve, but with more developments all the time i think i'd cut my losses and get rid of them...

[Peterw42]

It doesnt take much to work out that there are multiple listings greatly inflating the condo numbers for rent.

On the site the OP quotes, Noble Revo Silom has 319 condos in total and  2319 listings.

Edited May 3, 2020 by Peterw42

[ChipButty]

Take a look on Bahtsold lots for rent on there also

[OneMoreFarang]

I live in a high floor in lower Sukhumvit. Two new and expensive high rise condominiums are in my view. They look very nice. And they look very dark. At night very few windows show any light. And that is compared to other older buildings with a lot more light. My non scientific conclusion is: The buildings must be nearly empty. I guess best case 30% of the units have permanent residents.

[wordchild]

i would guess that the property market, in Bangkok, for both sellers and landlords is in for a difficult 2 or 3 years.

We have had massive overbuild and now a global economic shock. And this has come at a time when the Thai economy was looking increasingly vulnerable anyway.

 It always takes time for the property market  to adjust, its not like bonds or stocks where prices are highly visible and change daily. Sellers and landlords expectations will adjust down gradually as they realize they cannot meet their previous price targets. Those who are under no financial pressure will try to ride it out and put up with mid-term vacancy in anticipation of an eventual upturn. This is always stage one of a property downturn, a stand off between sellers and buyers (owners and renters).

Those who need too will start to break ranks and prices will gradually adjust down.

Since 1999, Thai property owners have come to believe that the good economic fundamentals the country enjoyed will eventually come to the markets rescue and the right strategy was to hold and wait any slowdown out. That strategy would have worked a number of times over the last 20 or so years.  In my opinion, it wont work this time (because the Thai economy is fundamentally in poor shape) and the market will come down both in terms of achievable rents and property prices.

But this will all take time. I would guess that the market will be in a downtrend for, at the least 2 or 3 years. 

For many this is not relevant. We own our property in Bangkok (purchased more than a decade ago) and have no intention of selling, despite my rather negative views on the market.

   

Edited May 4, 2020 by wordchild

[PingRoundTheWorld]

10 hours ago, tebee said:

So are there a lot of empty units and if so why haven't rental rates come down.

They are. It's not unreasonable to expect 30-50% off the asking price right now. Eventually they'll give up and lower the asking price too.

 

It's true that there are many duplicate and outdated listings on the sites, but that doesn't change the reality that owners are starting to get desperate. The bubble is about to pop and they know it. Terrible time to buy so don't - wait a few months and you could get far better deals.

Edited May 4, 2020 by PingRoundTheWorld

[PingRoundTheWorld]

40 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

My non scientific conclusion is: The buildings must be nearly empty. I guess best case 30% of the units have permanent residents.

I can tell you for a fact (asked the manager) that a condo building with 480 units on lower Sukhumvit only has 80 out of 480 units occupied. 200 more were used as Chinese vacation rentals - now empty. And 200 have been sitting unsold for a few years now.

[OneMoreFarang]

A question for the experts here: How fast can and realistically will owners increase the rent over time?

I want to look for a new apartment (condo unit) to rent. And obviously I like the idea of low prices. But I am concerned how long the prices will stay low and how fast owners might ask for more money. 

Because I don't want to move every couple of years. I don't mind if the price will go up a little over time, maybe 10% after two to three years. But what if the landlord wants in 3 years 50% more? I don't want to move again in 3 years.

How stable are the prices?

All this is under the condition that I am, like many others, "good" tenants. I pay my rent in time, don't make much noise and take care of the unit.

[smutcakes]

6 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

A question for the experts here: How fast can and realistically will owners increase the rent over time?

I want to look for a new apartment (condo unit) to rent. And obviously I like the idea of low prices. But I am concerned how long the prices will stay low and how fast owners might ask for more money. 

Because I don't want to move every couple of years. I don't mind if the price will go up a little over time, maybe 10% after two to three years. But what if the landlord wants in 3 years 50% more? I don't want to move again in 3 years.

How stable are the prices?

All this is under the condition that I am, like many others, "good" tenants. I pay my rent in time, don't make much noise and take care of the unit.

Rental prices have hardly changed in the past 30 years. This is why returns on condos in BKK after fees etc for higher end condos are probably sub 2-3%. Obviously there are some which buck the trend where you get a slightly higher yield like Domus, Millenium, or ones which have seen huge price increases like Somkid Gardens, Chidlom Place etc, but for the most part rental prices have remained steady. For absolutely prime condos you can probably get 1,000 THB per sqm per month.

[wordchild]

14 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

A question for the experts here: How fast can and realistically will owners increase the rent over time?

I want to look for a new apartment (condo unit) to rent. And obviously I like the idea of low prices. But I am concerned how long the prices will stay low and how fast owners might ask for more money. 

Because I don't want to move every couple of years. I don't mind if the price will go up a little over time, maybe 10% after two to three years. But what if the landlord wants in 3 years 50% more? I don't want to move again in 3 years.

How stable are the prices?

All this is under the condition that I am, like many others, "good" tenants. I pay my rent in time, don't make much noise and take care of the unit.

generally speaking rents are not increased for good tenants, in my experience. though the landlord will try to revert to a higher rent, if possible, once a tenant has moved out.

prior to buying a unit in the same building we rented another unit for 5 years. we were on good terms with our landlord and i once asked him if he would ever put the rent up. he said he wouldn't do that , as far as he was concerned we were good tenants and he was happy for us to stay as long as possible. A friend of mine rented a unit in one of the older Bangkok condos for 15 years without the landlord ever even suggesting a rental increase; he even had the kitchen completely redone (at the landlords expense) during the tenancy. He had a spacious unit (in a well maintained building) with great river views and, in the later years of his occupancy,  he had an amazing rental deal compared to the market. He only moved out because he got moved to HK by his company where he now lives in a shoe box, for a multiple of the rent he was paying in BKK. 

[Peterw42]

1 hour ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

I can tell you for a fact (asked the manager) that a condo building with 480 units on lower Sukhumvit only has 80 out of 480 units occupied. 200 more were used as Chinese vacation rentals - now empty. And 200 have been sitting unsold for a few years now.

Interested to know what you mean by asked the manager ? Juristic person perhaps.?

I own condos, there is no person that manages the rental or occupancy for the building. If I have or dont have a tennant, that information is between me and my tenant, there is no manager that knows the status of my condo.

[wordchild]

37 minutes ago, Peterw42 said:

Interested to know what you mean by asked the manager ? Juristic person perhaps.?

I own condos, there is no person that manages the rental or occupancy for the building. If I have or dont have a tennant, that information is between me and my tenant, there is no manager that knows the status of my condo.

i think this must depend on the building. I used to be on the committee for our condo  and , for our building, we had the occupation status for every unit recorded by the building manager and presented at every committee meeting.

In fact, i just checked the rule book for our building. There is a rule that owners must inform the office if their unit is left unoccupied for any period greater than 1 month. Obviously, also,  the condo management will always be aware of any transfer of ownership because they have an involvement in the process. Also owners must inform the management prior to move in, of the details (incl id/passport copy of the principal tenant) of any new renters and confirm that they have given them a copy of the condo rule book. So, at least in the case of our building, the management has a pretty clear view as to what is happening with each unit.   

Edited May 4, 2020 by wordchild
added information

[wordchild]

38 minutes ago, wordchild said:

generally speaking rents are not increased for good tenants, in my experience. though the landlord will try to revert to a higher rent, if possible, once a tenant has moved out.

prior to buying a unit in the same building we rented another unit for 5 years. we were on good terms with our landlord and i once asked him if he would ever put the rent up. he said he wouldn't do that , as far as he was concerned we were good tenants and he was happy for us to stay as long as possible. A friend of mine rented a unit in one of the older Bangkok condos for 15 years without the landlord ever even suggesting a rental increase; he even had the kitchen completely redone (at the landlords expense) during the tenancy. He had a spacious unit (in a well maintained building) with great river views and, in the later years of his occupancy,  he had an amazing rental deal compared to the market. He only moved out because he got moved to HK by his company where he now lives in a shoe box, for a multiple of the rent he was paying in BKK. 

Also, thinking about this some more, i think it definitely helps to have a direct (and good) relationship with the landlord. we rented our original unit direct from the owner (with the help of the condo office) as did the friend i referred to above. my advice would be stay clear of agents, they are generally a waste of space in Bangkok anyway, rent directly from the owner and make it clear from the start that you intend to be a long term (ie many years) tenant.  

[smutcakes]

33 minutes ago, Peterw42 said:

Interested to know what you mean by asked the manager ? Juristic person perhaps.?

I own condos, there is no person that manages the rental or occupancy for the building. If I have or dont have a tennant, that information is between me and my tenant, there is no manager that knows the status of my condo.

Most probably managed condos will know the occupancy status of their building and will also know what % of units are owner occupied or leased out.

[RBOP]

Its a buyers market now. But don't expect to do any flipping. Expect to hold 10 years or more to get a good resale. Remember the top three rules of real-estate; location, location, location. 

[ChasingTheSun]

Bangkok condos sold by developers at expensive western-level prices into a end-user demand market that is overwhelmingly relatively low-paid Thai. 
 

NOT a recipe for success.

 

Unless, Bangkok is expecting a huge surge in well-off Western expats. UNLIKELY.

[tebee]

So buying one, with the idea of renting it out after is definitely not a good idea !

 

I'm still puzzled why there are so many on offer, but at rents unaffordable to most people - why not let out at a lower rent and have something coming in rather than nothing ?

At The moment it's looking as if it's going to be cheaper booking into a 2 star hotel in the area than getting a condo.

[Stevemercer]

As others have said, it's best to identify the unit owners and deal directly with them. All you can do is offer a price and they will either accept or not accept.

 

However, many owners are not willing to deal and will seemingly allow their condo to go empty for years rather than accepting an offer below what they think it is worth.

 

The logic goes something like this. I want 20,000 Baht per month for my condo. You are offering 15,000 Baht. If I accept that then I am loosing 5,000 Baht per month. You will be ripping me off 5,000 Baht per month. And you expect me to be grateful! You cheap <deleted>, don't you understand business! It is better to wait until someone offers the 20,000 Baht I am asking.

[treetops]

8 hours ago, Peterw42 said:

Interested to know what you mean by asked the manager ? Juristic person perhaps.?

I own condos, there is no person that manages the rental or occupancy for the building. If I have or dont have a tennant, that information is between me and my tenant, there is no manager that knows the status of my condo.

Seems pretty slack management to me.

[ChasingTheSun]

Find a building you love at the perfect location and then start Informally lowballing multiple offers at various units. Offer max of 50% of the asking rental price.

 

Remember to tell the landlord that the renter is a Thai Doctor and he is willing to sign a 2 year or 3 year lease.

 

eventually one of them will bite and you may get a bargain.

Edited May 4, 2020 by ChasingTheSun

[wordchild]

1 hour ago, tebee said:

So buying one, with the idea of renting it out after is definitely not a good idea !

 

I'm still puzzled why there are so many on offer, but at rents unaffordable to most people - why not let out at a lower rent and have something coming in rather than nothing ?

At The moment it's looking as if it's going to be cheaper booking into a 2 star hotel in the area than getting a condo.

For this, the internet is pretty much useless. you really need to walk the area, if you are in Bangkok. Get the feel of the areas your son may like (and would be convenient for his work) . you need to visit a few places , talk to the reception staff , see if they will show you what is for rent (usually they will)  then go see. if you like a building, and the units, then  make friends with the staff, eg hand out some cash, give your line and ask them to let you know what the normal price is in the building for the size you want and if anything is available to your spec. And check if any owners are very keen to rent quickly. The staff will usually give you a pretty honest appraisal, once you have got them on your side. Then take it from there. 

Be friendly, polite and generous and smile. Its amazing how this works. Speaking a reasonable bit of Thai is also helpful.

The advice above from ChasinTheSun is excellent. A promise of a big advance or a long contract works wonders. I got an amazing (way under market) deal on the first condo i rented in BKK by offering a 12 months contract with the deposit and 6 months rent paid in advance.

  

Edited May 4, 2020 by wordchild

[OneMoreFarang]

31 minutes ago, ChasingTheSun said:

Find a building you love at the perfect location and then start Informally lowballing multiple offers at various units. Offer max of 50% of the asking rental price.

 

Remember to tell the landlord that the renter is a Thai Doctor and he is willing to sign a 2 year or 3 year lease.

 

eventually one of them will bite and you may get a bargain.

And then they see a farang and you get the farang price. ???? 

[OneMoreFarang]

31 minutes ago, wordchild said:

For this, the internet is pretty much useless. you really need to walk the area, if you are in Bangkok. Get the feel of the areas your son may like (and would be convenient for his work) . you need to visit a few places , talk to the reception staff , see if they will show you what is for rent (usually they will)  then go see. if you like a building, and the units, then  make friends with the staff, eg hand out some cash, give your line and ask them to let you know what the normal price is in the building for the size you want and if anything is available to your spec. And check if any owners are very keen to rent quickly. The staff will usually give you a pretty honest appraisal, once you have got them on your side. Then take it from there. 

Be friendly, polite and generous and smile. Its amazing how this works. Speaking a reasonable bit of Thai is also helpful.

The advice above from ChasinTheSun is excellent. A promise of a big advance or a long contract works wonders. I got an amazing (way under market) deal on the first condo i rented in BKK by offering a 12 months contract with the deposit and 6 months rent paid in advance.

  

Did you try this? Did it work?

It seems in my condominium the staff behind the counter more or less work with one of the agents together. And I am pretty sure they get a commission from that agent. A few nice words and a smile won't compensate for thousands of THB commission...

[newnative]

13 hours ago, Peterw42 said:

It doesnt take much to work out that there are multiple listings greatly inflating the condo numbers for rent.

On the site the OP quotes, Noble Revo Silom has 319 condos in total and  2319 listings.

I was just about to post the same thing and you beat me to it.  The same goes for properties for sale--lots of listings by different agencies for the same condo for sale.  And, also some out-of-date information.  I sometimes see condos I sold several years ago still listed on various websites.