Internal U.S. document foresees surge of coronavirus deaths, NY Times says

[webfact]

Internal U.S. document foresees surge of coronavirus deaths, NY Times says

By Maria Caspani and Nathan Layne

 

Health workers move a patient wearing a face mask at the at NYU Langone Hospital, during the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in the Manhattan borough of New York City, New York, U.S., May 3, 2020. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz

 

NEW YORK (Reuters) - An internal U.S. government document projects a surge in coronavirus cases and a sharp rise in daily deaths by June 1, the New York Times reported on Monday, even as President Donald Trump urged states to lift restrictions to quell the pandemic.

 

The document, based on modelling by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, projects that COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the virus, will kill 3,000 Americans a day by the end of May, the Times said, up from a current daily toll that a Reuters tally places at around 2,000.

 

The projections, pulled together in chart form by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000 cases now, the Times said.

 

Asked about the Times report, White House spokesman Judd Deere said: “This is not a White House document nor has it been presented to the Coronavirus Task Force or gone through interagency vetting."

 

Deere's statement said: "The health of the American people remains President Trump’s top priority and that will continue as we monitor the efforts by states to ease restrictions.”

 

The coronavirus has infected more than 1.1 million Americans and killed nearly 68,000, according to the Reuters tally.

 

Trump has given varying predictions for the number of people in the United States who will succumb to COVID-19, which has no vaccine or known cure.

 

As recently as Friday the president had said he hoped fewer than 100,000 Americans would die and earlier in the week had talked of 60,000 to 70,000 deaths.

 

But on Sunday night the president acknowledged the death toll may climb much higher.

 

“We’re going to lose anywhere from 75, 80 to 100,000 people. That’s a horrible thing,” he told Fox News.

 

As of last week, the University of Washington's IHME predictive model, often cited by White House officials and state public health authorities, projected a first wave of 72,400 coronavirus deaths in the United States.

 

The more pessimistic projection emerged alongside more signs of the devastation the pandemic was having on American life. Clothing retailer J. Crew Group Inc filed for bankruptcy protection on Monday and said it would permanently close some stores.

 

The U.S. Supreme Court for the first time heard a case by online teleconference open to the public. 

 

States have felt pressured to ease restrictions on businesses and social life to revive their battered economies, but health experts have urged caution for fear of a resurgence of the virus.

 

NEW YORK PLANIn New York, the state that accounts for about a third of all U.S. infections, Governor Andrew Cuomo on Monday outlined plans to ease restrictions on a regional basis. He sketched out the plan while at least half of the other 50 states moved ahead with plans of their own to restart their battered economies.

 

Without giving a specific time frame, Cuomo told a daily briefing that construction, manufacturing and the wholesale supply chain would be allowed to start up under the first phase of a four-step return to normality.

 

The state's stay-at-home order, in place since mid-March, is due to expire on May 15, and the Democratic governor has said previously that some regions outside the New York City area with a relatively low number of cases may start lifting restrictions after that date.

 

"Reopening is more difficult than the close-down. The close-down was relatively simple," he said, cautioning that every part of the state of 19 million people needed to move gradually.

 

Cuomo, who gave his daily coronavirus briefing on Monday around the same time as the New York Times broke its story on the internal Trump administration document, gave the most detailed sketch so far on how the state would start to loosen restrictions on businesses and daily life.

 

After the initial reopening of some workplaces, a second phase would let insurance, retail, administrative support and real estate businesses open again, followed by restaurants, food services, hotels and accommodation businesses in the third stage, Cuomo said.

 

In the final phase, arts and entertainment and recreation facilities, and education would restart.

 

While he did not specify which regions would open first, Cuomo showed a slide indicating the more rural northern and central parts of the state as "lower-risk regions" in contrast to the "higher-risk regions" which included New York City.

 

Florida began a gradual reopening of its economy on Monday. In the first phase, retail merchants and restaurants will open, with indoor patronage limited to 25% of capacity. Eateries are also allowed to open outdoor seating with social distancing, and medical practices can resume elective surgeries and procedures.

 

But schools, movie theatres, bars and fitness clubs will remain shut. Governor Ron DeSantis had drawn criticism for waiting until April 2 to clamp down on commerce after most other states had done so. More than a fifth of Florida residents are aged 65 and over, putting them in a category of those at greater risk from the virus.

 

In Ohio, Governor Mike DeWine was allowing construction and manufacturing to reopen on Monday, and letting office workers return.

 

(Reporting by Maria Caspani in New York, Rajesh Kumar Singh in Chicago and Nathan Layne in Connecticut; Additional reporting by Susan Heavey in Washington and Rick MacKay in Atlanta; Writing by Alistair Bell, Editing by Howard Goller)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-05-05

 

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[Puchaiyank]

The New York times has a history of being wrong!  Hopefully this will be one of those times..

 

[edwinchester]

34 minutes ago, Puchaiyank said:

The New York times has a history of being wrong!  Hopefully this will be one of those times..

 

More accurate than somebody's forecast that only a few people would get the virus in the US and that it would magically disappear in April.

[Boon Mee]

1 hour ago, Puchaiyank said:

The New York times has a history of being wrong!  Hopefully this will be one of those times..

 

Got that right. 

Like the Pulitzer they received for the historically inaccurate 1619 Project. 

Shameful 'reporting' 

[Ventenio]

Internal documents predicted Pearl Harbor.

Internal documents talked about Corona in Wuhan last fall (September?)

Internal documents also foresee less deaths, just a different internal doc.

Internal documents said to ban flights.

 

I can't read such ridiculous articles.  

[Tug]

I sincerely hope they are wrong but I’m afaraid they are correct personally I think the second wave will be much worse than the first and btw I would be absolutely delighted to be wrong be safe follow safe practice  stay healthy all

Edited May 5, 2020 by Tug

[Curt1591]

These are the same people that keep pointing out that a person can be asymptomatic for over 2 weeks. Did they discover this by asking how long asymptomatic people were asymptomatic?

Seems like they're trying to create an invisible boogeyman! 

[welovesundaysatspace]

29 minutes ago, Boon Mee said:

Got that right. 

Like the Pulitzer they received for the historically inaccurate 1619 Project. 

Shameful 'reporting' 

Wasn’t that the Nobel prize? 

[welovesundaysatspace]

 

 

24 minutes ago, Ventenio said:

Internal documents also foresee less deaths, just a different internal doc.

Which one?

[Venom]

Unfortunately it's an election year and they see a high death rate and destroying the US economy as the best way to defeat Trump. 

[frenetic]

1 hour ago, Puchaiyank said:

The New York times has a history of being wrong!  Hopefully this will be one of those times..

 

Every news media can be said to have a history of being wrong. The question is frequency. 

[frenetic]

5 minutes ago, Venom said:

Unfortunately it's an election year and they see a high death rate and destroying the US economy as the best way to defeat Trump. 

Yours is the Tinkerbell model of disease. If only we would clap our hands and believe in President Trump, the coronavirus would disappear one day like magic!

[Langsuan Man]

On 5/5/2020 at 8:25 AM, Venom said:

Unfortunately it's an election year and they see a high death rate and destroying the US economy as the best way to defeat Trump. 

Actually high death rate is exactly what will defeat Trump, read the statistics:

 

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/23/how-coronavirus-could-upend-2020-battlegrounds-204708

 

[Stargeezr]

It is indeed election year, and I sorely hope that the older population of USA is not

effected as badly as I suspect it will be. Why? Because I think the older voters 

are not as supportive of Trump as the young and niave voters are. Trump may

secretly be hoping that a ton of seniors are gone before November and then

maybe his chances might be better. So for you young Amersicans who are not taking the 

virus seriously, stay away from your older family members. Do not inject yourselves

with any bleech  products either. Good Luck USA  your number one status with

the virus is not one that any of you want, that much I am sure of.

Geezer

[stevenl]

2 minutes ago, Stargrazer9889 said:

It is indeed election year, and I sorely hope that the older population of USA is not

effected as badly as I suspect it will be. Why? Because I think the older voters 

are not as supportive of Trump as the young and niave voters are. Trump may

secretly be hoping that a ton of seniors are gone before November and then

maybe his chances might be better. So for you young Amersicans who are not taking the 

virus seriously, stay away from your older family members. Do not inject yourselves

with any bleech  products either. Good Luck USA  your number one status with

the virus is not one that any of you want, that much I am sure of.

Geezer

I recall seeing stats with support for Trump more with the older voters.

 

Getting off topic here though.

[lannarebirth]

1 hour ago, Boon Mee said:

Got that right. 

Like the Pulitzer they received for the historically inaccurate 1619 Project. 

Shameful 'reporting' 

 

They are reporting the on the study produced in a document by the US government.

[lannarebirth]

1 hour ago, frenetic said:

Every news media can be said to have a history of being wrong. The question is frequency. 

 

The NY Times can't be right or wrong in this case as they are merely reporting on the US govts. projections.

[otherstuff1957]

The effects of the Coronavirus seem to be very hard to predict.  0 deaths in Laos vs 1560 deaths in Ecuador?  The number of US deaths could be 1/2 the number predicted or it could be twice.  At this point I don't think anyone really know.

[bendejo]

Just sit tight and wait for that miracle.

Any news on when exactly it will be happening?

 

 

[lannarebirth]

13 minutes ago, bendejo said:

Just sit tight and wait for that miracle.

Any news on when exactly it will be happening?

 

 

A year after the Global Depression starts or between 2 and 4 years from now. 

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/she-predicted-coronavirus-does-she-185553863.html

[Lacessit]

3 hours ago, Puchaiyank said:

The New York times has a history of being wrong!  Hopefully this will be one of those times..

 

It's as predictable as the sun rising in the east that news which does not toe the Trump line is derided.

What should be more alarming to US citizens is the recovery rate. In countries such as Australia with full lockdown, that rate is 85%. In America, it is 16%. That means US hospitals are clogged up with COVID-19 patients, at the expense of patients with other ailments. There are over 1 million coronavirus cases in the US still outstanding. Do your own calculations.https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Phil McCaverty]

57 minutes ago, stevenl said:

I recall seeing stats with support for Trump more with the older voters.

 

Getting off topic here though.

And a much higher percentage of Black and Hispanic people are affected by the virus. A gift for Trump.

[Eric Loh]

If Trump acted promptly, there wouldn’t be that many infections and deaths. Maybe too late now but he still can raise to the occasion and take lead to have a unified country face the pandemic and be the commander in chief to drive national policies. Now that’s a miracle worth happening. 

[Phil McCaverty]

58 minutes ago, lannarebirth said:

 

The NY Times can't be right or wrong in this case as they are merely reporting on the US govts. projections.

The NYT just reported on a revision of the model by Washington University. The new revised model by John Hopkins makes even worse reading.

 

Don't shoot the messenger.

[frenetic]

53 minutes ago, otherstuff1957 said:

The effects of the Coronavirus seem to be very hard to predict.  0 deaths in Laos vs 1560 deaths in Ecuador?  The number of US deaths could be 1/2 the number predicted or it could be twice.  At this point I don't think anyone really know.

In the case of Laos and Ecuador you have 2 poor nations with limited ability to gather statistics and governments that don't have a history of respecting independent institutions. Especially in the case of Laos. The best way to understand the situation is to use the information available from economically developed nations that allow for independent institutions to function.

[bendejo]

40 minutes ago, lannarebirth said:

A year after the Global Depression starts or between 2 and 4 years from now.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/she-predicted-coronavirus-does-she-185553863.html

I lived in California for a while.  Part of the New Year's ritual is for the resident psychics to make predictions for the coming year.  "This year will be the BIG earthquake," every year.  When it doesn't happen, well, thank god, eh?  When it does (like 1989) it's "see?  see? just like I said!!!"

Sometimes these prophecies take a while, like there's one out there at 5,000 years and counting.

 

If anyone is interested here's that model from the University of Washington, reportedly revamped in the past few days.  An interesting (yet morbid) thing to fiddle with.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

 

 

[lannarebirth]

35 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

If Trump acted promptly, there wouldn’t be that many infections and deaths. Maybe too late now but he still can raise to the occasion and take lead to have a unified country face the pandemic and be the commander in chief to drive national policies. Now that’s a miracle worth happening. 

I actually have some amount of sympathy or some of the people protesting in state capitols to open things back up. The government never should have prescribed the lockdown without simultaneously providing a monthly UBI for the citizenry. The $1,200 they sent was used by many people to pay the previous month's bills. There should have been a program in place, open ended, given the lack of concrete timelines to provide sustenance to the populace such that they could get through this crisis. I blame both the Presidency and both branches of Congress. They sent trillions to those who support their campaigns and next to nothing to those whom they are meant to serve.

[frenetic]

4 minutes ago, lannarebirth said:

I actually have some amount of sympathy or some of the people protesting in state capitols to open things back up. The government never should have prescribed the lockdown without simultaneously providing a monthly UBI for the citizenry. The $1,200 they sent was used by many people to pay the previous month's bills. There should have been a program in place, open ended, given the lack of concrete timelines to provide sustenance to the populace such that they could get through this crisis. I blame both the Presidency and both branches of Congress. They sent trillions to those who support their campaigns and next to nothing to those whom they are meant to serve.

Yet most people manage not to be as selfish as they are. 

[rudi49jr]

4 hours ago, Puchaiyank said:

The New York times has a history of being wrong!  Hopefully this will be one of those times..

 

I'm willing to bet that the NYT has been wrong less times (way less) than a certain gentleman who's been occupying the WH for the last 3,5 years. And you do realize that the NYT didn't write this internal document, don't you? They are only reporting about its existence and content.

[Eric Loh]

23 minutes ago, lannarebirth said:

I actually have some amount of sympathy or some of the people protesting in state capitols to open things back up. The government never should have prescribed the lockdown without simultaneously providing a monthly UBI for the citizenry. The $1,200 they sent was used by many people to pay the previous month's bills. There should have been a program in place, open ended, given the lack of concrete timelines to provide sustenance to the populace such that they could get through this crisis. I blame both the Presidency and both branches of Congress. They sent trillions to those who support their campaigns and next to nothing to those whom they are meant to serve.

It has been tough for all especially the small businesses all round the world. The fact is that things will never be the same even after the infections and deaths declined significantly. A vaccine is the only solution but it is not a surety that the world can get one. SARS, Ebola still don’t have a vaccine. Big corporations have better chance of continuation but still uncertainty lingers especially for the airline, oil, big retails and travel industries. Small businesses will bear the biggest brunt of this drastic economic meltdown.  Some jobs will never come back and some businesses will close for good. US economy policies have not prepared the people with the basic necessities to survive financially and medically. Fault of previous governments and the FED. UBI may be the new normal.