Only one new Covid-19 case, pointing to constant improvement in situation

[webfact]

Only one new Covid-19 case, pointing to constant improvement in situation

By The Nation

 

 

Thailand reported only one new case and there were no deaths over a 24-hour period, Dr Taweesin Visanuyothin, spokesman of the government’s Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA), said on Thursday (May 14).

 

"This is still a satisfying number; however everyone still needs to be on guard against the virus," Dr Taweesin said.

 

On Wednesday, the CCSA had reported zero new cases.

 

The total number of Covid-19 patients increased to 3,018.

 

A 39-year-old man in Chiang Mai who used to work in Phuket was the only new case on Thursday. He was found to be infected during efforts by health volunteers to unearth positive cases. The man looked healthy and did not show any symptoms, which is worrying for officials.

 

Meanwhile, six people have fully recovered and returned home as patient recovery percentage rose to 96.63.

 

As of May 14, the total number of confirmed cases in the country stood at 3,018 -- 112 are under treatment, 2,850 have recovered and been discharged, and there have been 56 deaths.

 

Globally, there have been more than 4.3 million confirmed cases and around 297,000 deaths

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30387836

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-05-14

 

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[RotBenz8888]

2 minutes ago, webfact said:

This is still a satisfying number;

1 case....

[Traubert]

So 112 cases NOT the 3018 reported.

 

Don't know why but this irks me. 3006 of them have recovered/died so report as such.

[Bluetongue]

4 minutes ago, Traubert said:

So 112 cases NOT the 3018 reported.

 

Don't know why but this irks me. 3006 of them have recovered/died so report as such.

If you can read, and did read the whole article (which was very short) then I have no words 

[DirtyHarry55]

When questioned if COVID19 cases could have been mixed up with other diseases Dr. Taweesin claimed that since begin year the number of Pneumonia cases had dropped compared to 2019.

 

So there you go now we have the truth numbers from
https://hdcservice.moph.go.th/hdc/reports/report_eis.php?source=formated/death298.php&cat_id=491672679818600345dc1833920051b2&id=b4ea22252bb533f3f9225dfcab83d43a
Must be wrong. P.s I notice that site is no longer accessible from outside Thailand.

 

[Guderian]

So that one new case resets Thailand's clock back to zero already, and yet the head honcho still seems to want zero new cases for 28 consecutive days before he will consider reopening thr beaches and swimming pools, never mind letting tourism get started again. It's going to be a long hot season, folks!

[4MyEgo]

Good job, well done, hip hip hoorah and all that.

[DavisH]

36 minutes ago, DirtyHarry55 said:

When questioned if COVID19 cases could have been mixed up with other diseases Dr. Taweesin claimed that since begin year the number of Pneumonia cases had dropped compared to 2019.

 

So there you go now we have the truth numbers from
https://hdcservice.moph.go.th/hdc/reports/report_eis.php?source=formated/death298.php&cat_id=491672679818600345dc1833920051b2&id=b4ea22252bb533f3f9225dfcab83d43a
Must be wrong. P.s I notice that site is no longer accessible from outside Thailand.

 

The results are valid. On a per month basis, the number of pneumonia cases is similar to that of the last budget year. So, the s2020 statistics are from October 2019 - September 2020. They are not based on the calendar year. 

[Traubert]

53 minutes ago, Bluetongue said:

If you can read, and did read the whole article (which was very short) then I have no words 

I never said maths was my strong point. ????????

[DirtyHarry55]

9 minutes ago, DavisH said:

The results are valid. On a per month basis, the number of pneumonia cases is similar to that of the last budget year. So, the s2020 statistics are from October 2019 - September 2020. They are not based on the calendar year. 

I think it starts at the of the year and not budget year as it indicates results for 2020 up to week 18 which is now.

[Fex Bluse]

Anyone who takes comfort in Thai statistics is... well, I think we know... How many tests have they done? 

[Traubert]

There is a fella in China passed seven tests. His eighth one was positive.

 

Forgive me for not having faith in testing. It hasnt helped UK or USA as far as I can see.

Edited May 14, 2020 by Traubert
Spelling

[transam]

That reads like.."We are in deep doo doo and need to open the cash gates"...... ????

[smedly]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

"This is still a satisfying number; however everyone still needs to be on guard against the virus," Dr Taweesin said.

is this a joke ?

[garygooner]

The UK and US would be pretty optimistic and satisfied when the number falls below 1000.

(1 is still a satisfying number!) 

[SkyFax]

23 minutes ago, Traubert said:

Forgive me for not having faith in testing.

May 13, 2020 Just Because You Test Positive for Antibodies Doesn’t Mean You Have Them In a population whose infection rate is 5 percent, a test that is 90 percent accurate could deliver a false positive nearly 70 percent of the time

 

If you took an antibody test that was 90 percent accurate, and it determined that you had coronavirus antibodies, how confident should you be that you actually have those antibodies?

 

Most people say about 90 percent, with the average answer being above 50 percent. This makes sense. After all, 90 percent accuracy is pretty high.

 

But the predictive value of an antibody test with 90 percent accuracy could be as low as 32 percent if the base rate of infection in the population is 5 percent. Put another way, there is an almost 70 percent probability in that case that the test will falsely indicate a person has antibodies.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/opinion/antibody-test-accuracy.html

[Geoffggi]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

This is still a satisfying number

But it is a 100% increase on yesterday.......LOL

[ThailandRyan]

Just who did the Chiang Mai asymptomatic infected man have contact with when he went to Chiang Mai from Phuket, and how many has he been around in Chiang Mai....so many tracing contacts this poor government needs to conduct now.  What a tangled web we weave when we first try to deceive.

Edited May 14, 2020 by ThailandRyan

[dinsdale]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

Only one new Covid-19 case, pointing to constant improvement in situation

From zero to one points to constant improvement. Therefore, logically one to two will be an improvement. Two to four. Four to eight... guess you got my point by now. Here's an idea. Test 100,000 people in two weeks at the cost of the govt. Let's see what the numbers are then. Not using China's test kits.

Edited May 14, 2020 by dinsdale

[DrTuner]

2 hours ago, DirtyHarry55 said:

When questioned if COVID19 cases could have been mixed up with other diseases Dr. Taweesin claimed that since begin year the number of Pneumonia cases had dropped compared to 2019.

 

So there you go now we have the truth numbers from
https://hdcservice.moph.go.th/hdc/reports/report_eis.php?source=formated/death298.php&cat_id=491672679818600345dc1833920051b2&id=b4ea22252bb533f3f9225dfcab83d43a
Must be wrong. P.s I notice that site is no longer accessible from outside Thailand.

 

That chart looks extremely suspect. Pneumonia is caused by a lot of things, to have it falling towards zero just does not look right.

Edited May 14, 2020 by DrTuner

[DrTuner]

24 minutes ago, SkyFax said:

May 13, 2020 Just Because You Test Positive for Antibodies Doesn’t Mean You Have Them In a population whose infection rate is 5 percent, a test that is 90 percent accurate could deliver a false positive nearly 70 percent of the time

Look up Bayesian trap in youtube. Apparently it's not kosher to link it here as it got deleted last time, even though it directly concerns ths issue.

[ThailandRyan]

The daily numbers game is getting to be monotonous.  If we could have access to all of the proper information we have been blocked from obtaining on the websites of the Government, then for sure we might have a clearer picture.  Something just does not make sense to me.  How and why did they test the man in Chiang Mai when he appeared to be just fine and did not show any symptoms?  Are they now actively testing the population or what the heck are they not revealing.  Something stinks and it is not Durian.... 

[DavisH]

1 hour ago, DirtyHarry55 said:

I think it starts at the of the year and not budget year as it indicates results for 2020 up to week 18 which is now.

No it's not. It follows the budget year.

[DirtyHarry55]

11 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

That chart looks extremely suspect. Pneumonia is caused by a lot of things, to have it falling towards zero just does not look right.

Yea according to my calculation the graph indicates 80,500 people have died from Pneumonia this year!
In the first month almost 7,000 people per week! Is that possible very suspect.

[DavisH]

15 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

From zero to one points to constant improvement. Therefore, logically one to two will be an improvement. Two to four. Four to eight... guess you got my point by now. Here's an idea. Test 100,000 people in two weeks at the cost of the govt. Let's see what the numbers are then. Not using China's test kits.

They do target testing already. How many more would random sampling find? Better to do antibody testing, anyway. 

Other countries MUST test a lot because many are presenting with covid symptoms at hospital. It thousands were coming to Thai hospitals in the same condition, they yes, there would be more testing. 

[ThailandRyan]

2 minutes ago, DavisH said:

No it's not. It follows the budget year.

Is it a generally viewed Fiscal year that they report on or a Yearly January thru December year. The fiscal year runs through the end of September.  So if the stats run from that period then we would be looking at 2019/October to 13 May 2020.  Total of 7 months and 13 days.....

[DrTuner]

3 minutes ago, DavisH said:

No it's not. It follows the budget year.

To give a baseline figure, the count was 11,170 on May 6th, I recorded it in the evening. It's now 12,044, so 874 people in the provinces have been reported to die of pneumonia in about 8 days, on average 109/d. IIRC the 2019 average was about 60/d.

 

In Thaweesin's chart above, looks like about 700 cases a week and those are not even deaths. It stinks to high heaven.

[DrTuner]

7 minutes ago, DirtyHarry55 said:

Yea according to my calculation the graph indicates 80,500 people have died from Pneumonia this year!
In the first month almost 7,000 people per week! Is that possible very suspect.

It's diagnosed cases, not deaths. You can count the general mortality rate from pneumonia from there though.

 

I like it when they leak data, even when you have to scrape it out of their graphs.

Edited May 14, 2020 by DrTuner

[offset]

3 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

To give a baseline figure, the count was 11,170 on May 6th, I recorded it in the evening. It's now 12,044, so 874 people in the provinces have been reported to die of pneumonia in about 8 days, on average 109/d. IIRC the 2019 average was about 60/d.

 

In Thaweesin's chart above, looks like about 700 cases a week and those are not even deaths. It stinks to high heaven.

You sure the figures on May the 6th were not for the end of

April which would seem to be normal

[SkyFax]

26 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Look up Bayesian trap

The NYTimes article authors are Professors Haugh and Bedi  and "are researchers who study judgment and decision-making."

 

Look them up.