Poor exchange rates

[Steve Vincent]

4 hours ago, Paul DS said:

Well here is the latest issues;

The EU and the UK have recently cut interest rates to virtually zero.

They are paying for millions to stay home rather than work.

They are lending / giving millions to industry to keep them afloat.

They have debt running into 100s of billions of currency.

They are still in a live Covid 19 issue.

 

The USA and Russia have mass deaths and virus issues which are not resolved.

Sub Continents are now seeing mass virus expansion.

 

Now we come to Thailand:

Interest rates still higher than many countries.

Thailand has given here and there 1000-5000 baht to the poor.

They allow "farangs" etc to organise free food to the starving.

They have no new debt arising from Covid 19

They "have" no Covid 19 (so they state)

They do / did have massive rise in Pneumonia and Dengue though!

The "rich" Chinese will be back in a few weeks time.

 

So as the rest of the World have financial and health problems, Thailand does not...locals can lose there cars, go broke, have no jobs, have no money, starve, they can go back to the villages and farm!....but none of that effects or bothers the Junta government so poor exchange rates are here for many years to come!

 

I live in a village in the sticks, everyone is poor and many starving, my Thai Wife cooks rice etc non stop every day to help others.  As I've stated in the past, Pattaya etc is not a true reflection of Thai Life.

 

Thailand is great ...if you have money, 3rd World if not.

Agree with yourself,. I’m Well and truly done with pattaya and Bangkok,. Love my Thai family and wouldn’t change that for all the money in the world,. Living in ubon I've realized just how important family and the future is ( children ) big congratulations for your wife for looking after many people ( serving food all day ) many people doing the same and they don’t look for recognition .. applaud you thailand a rich nation I’m not rich nor poor - just want the best for the people and those living here... 

[Eddy Ozark]

It has seemed to me that the laws or rules of international economy do not apply to the Thai economy. Look at some facts. Massive unemployment. Little interest among those with capital to invest in Thailand on a large scale for fear of instability in the country. Vietnam, Cambodia or even Myanmar look more attractive when it comes to investment. The political stability in this country is just on the surface. After the floods in 2011 many industries closed here and foreign capital investment fell markedly. But for people with a lot of baht it is surely in their favor to keep the baht high and valuable. Because if it falls they lose money. Personal vs national interest do not always follow each other.

[Kalasin Jo]

On 5/15/2020 at 5:19 PM, Pib said:

OP,

  Free fall of the US dollar you say....don't know why you say that....take a look at below 10 year chart for USD-THB....been hanging a little below and above 32 baht per dollar in slow oscillations---no free fall.

 

  Now the GBP-THB rate has experienced a slow, long term downward trend since the BREXIT referendum in June 2016, but that is a UK self-inflicted currency exchange event; not THB strength.

 

USD-THB

 

 

GBP-THB....stable up until the Jun 2016 BREXIT referendum

 

Yup brexit just keeps on giving and it ain't over yet by a long chalk with inept, incompetent, lying government ministers and a Prime Minister who doesn't do detail, only jokes,  whilst signing Treaties he clearly hasnt bothered to read, and who are all intent on what they cosily, to kid the public, call " an Australian deal", ( that's actually no encompassing trade deal with the EU at all ) by the end of this year. It would rather do a deal with the US. So it's going to hell in a handcart with the full support of many turkeys at home, here and elsewhere.

[kingdong]

13 hours ago, Henryford said:

Western countries are printing $trillions to cope with Covid. Thailand is borrowing 5 bob. There's the answer why are currencies are falling like a stone. They will soon be worthless.

Thai baht is strong because of exports and tourism,both of which are going for a burton, 38 baht to £1? It's cheaper to go for a drink in London now ( or was when the pubs were open ) and if the western world's brassic who's going to buy all China's exports?

[kingdong]

Can forsee a lot of ex pats returning to their home countries with their tails between their legs and their worldly possessions in a carrier bag of the baht remains so high.

[SteveK]

2 hours ago, kingdong said:

Can forsee a lot of ex pats returning to their home countries with their tails between their legs and their worldly possessions in a carrier bag of the baht remains so high.

Which means Thailand will be losing the ex-pats, the tourists and will have no export market. Yet the baht still won't go down.

[kingdong]

5 hours ago, SteveK said:

Which means Thailand will be losing the ex-pats, the tourists and will have no export market. Yet the baht still won't go down.

Cause it won,t high class tourists from China and India will be flooding in,( according to tat )

[kingdong]

8 hours ago, Kalasin Jo said:

Yup brexit just keeps on giving and it ain't over yet by a long chalk with inept, incompetent, lying government ministers and a Prime Minister who doesn't do detail, only jokes,  whilst signing Treaties he clearly hasnt bothered to read, and who are all intent on what they cosily, to kid the public, call " an Australian deal", ( that's actually no encompassing trade deal with the EU at all ) by the end of this year. It would rather do a deal with the US. So it's going to hell in a handcart with the full support of many turkeys at home, here and elsewhere.

Least when things start getting back to normal the uk will be able to make its own decisions and laws and not be hamstrung by the eu.

[kingdong]

11 hours ago, Eddy Ozark said:

It has seemed to me that the laws or rules of international economy do not apply to the Thai economy. Look at some facts. Massive unemployment. Little interest among those with capital to invest in Thailand on a large scale for fear of instability in the country. Vietnam, Cambodia or even Myanmar look more attractive when it comes to investment. The political stability in this country is just on the surface. After the floods in 2011 many industries closed here and foreign capital investment fell markedly. But for people with a lot of baht it is surely in their favor to keep the baht high and valuable. Because if it falls they lose money. Personal vs national interest do not always follow each other.

Cause it's in the interests of the ruling classes to have a high baht to the detriment of the countries welfare,they might have to have it on their toes with their I'll gotten gains.this corona could be the straw that breaks the camels back.

[timkeen08]

22 hours ago, tweedledee2 said:

   If the current exchange rate makes living in Thailand to expensive for you, how much do you expect you'll save, flying your family back and living in the UK? 

   I've been sending the same amount of USD's from my SS payment each month to Thailand for the past 5 years to support our family of four. Since paying off our car loan in Dec, 11,00 baht carries over into the next month. I know for a fact that it would cost more to live in the US. 

 

Our last car payment will be in September.  11,000฿ more goes into savings and SSA continues to be direct deposited well within exchange rate variations for my annual extensions.  I've always got my company pension if I need to add it for immigration.  My wife has been counting down the months since we got the pickup.

[rickudon]

Well, I think that the baht has been doing well on the back of a good Coronavirus result, while UK, Europe and the US couldn't have done much worse.

 

However, once Coronavirus subsides (unfortunately probably never disappear) the reality that Thailand has massive economic problems, due to strong baht, lack of customers and a tourism industry in a state of collapse, i expect the baht will fall, But not before 2021. 

 

As for the GBP ... well after 4-5 (probably more....) years of Brexit, plus Corona and a bunch of idealists out of touch with reality running the country, we are in for a recession which no-one has seen in their lifetimes. Another 5 years before we see anything better. I am just battening down the hatches and hoping i can stick it out in Thailand and the pension keeps getting paid!

[Baerboxer]

On 5/15/2020 at 5:19 PM, Pib said:

OP,

  Free fall of the US dollar you say....don't know why you say that....take a look at below 10 year chart for USD-THB....been hanging a little below and above 32 baht per dollar in slow oscillations---no free fall.

 

  Now the GBP-THB rate has experienced a slow, long term downward trend since the BREXIT referendum in June 2016, but that is a UK self-inflicted currency exchange event; not THB strength.

 

USD-THB

 

 

GBP-THB....stable up until the Jun 2016 BREXIT referendum

 

 

If you go back further, you'll see the GBP has been on a downward trend for some time. Brexit accelerated the trend. 

 

If you look at short term there have been peaks and troughs as always. The GBP range of trading against the USD and ThB has trended downwards, with occasional surges. But never getting near the pre Brexit ranges. 

 

The UK and US have both been hit extremely hard by the current virus pandemic, economically too. 

[Baerboxer]

7 minutes ago, rickudon said:

Well, I think that the baht has been doing well on the back of a good Coronavirus result, while UK, Europe and the US couldn't have done much worse.

 

However, once Coronavirus subsides (unfortunately probably never disappear) the reality that Thailand has massive economic problems, due to strong baht, lack of customers and a tourism industry in a state of collapse, i expect the baht will fall, But not before 2021. 

 

As for the GBP ... well after 4-5 (probably more....) years of Brexit, plus Corona and a bunch of idealists out of touch with reality running the country, we are in for a recession which no-one has seen in their lifetimes. Another 5 years before we see anything better. I am just battening down the hatches and hoping i can stick it out in Thailand and the pension keeps getting paid!

 

The most worrying comment is what happens in another 5 years. Currently, there seems to be little alternative offering anything better; maybe even worse. 

 

HSBC were still seeing the GBP strengthen considerably later this year. Just can't see it unless they know something we don't!

[Pib]

32 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

If you go back further, you'll see the GBP has been on a downward trend for some time. Brexit accelerated the trend. 

 

If you look at short term there have been peaks and troughs as always. The GBP range of trading against the USD and ThB has trended downwards, with occasional surges. But never getting near the pre Brexit ranges. 

 

The UK and US have both been hit extremely hard by the current virus pandemic, economically too. 

Yeap....let's go back to 1985.  From 1985 to 1998 the GBP-THB was fairly close to where it is today.  It's just when the Asian Financial Crisis hit Thailand in 1998 and caused their currency to go down the drain, it really took them about a dozen years...to around 2012 to fully recover. 

 

And during those dozen years or so the GBP-THB exchange was extremely good....what UK folks often reflect upon as the good ol' days of currency exchange rate.  Sadly those days are long gone....now back to more normal exchange rate when look at it from a long term, multi-decade perceptive. 

 

[Bandersnatch]

Being reliant on income from abroad is a risk with currency movements.  My approach has been to reduce my future costs as far as possible. 1st put 800k/400k away and don't touch it. That way your visa is safe.

 

I don't pay rent; condo fees; water or waste water bills; rubbish collection bills; electric bills. I don't have any debts. I don't have any expensive addictions. I am growing some of my food. So if push comes to shove, I could survive on very little. My spreadsheet shows my income sources linked to the current exchange rate. I should be ok if the pound goes down to less than 10 Baht. 
 

It is also good to have some income in Thai Baht and an emergency fund if possible.

Edited May 17, 2020 by Bandersnatch

[brianthainess]

On 5/16/2020 at 10:16 AM, Laza 45 said:

Transferwise rate at the moment is 38.545 for UK pound..  31.677 for $US..

Probably as good as you can get at the moment...

Last week i got 39.9 TT 

[Laza 45]

31 minutes ago, brianthainess said:

Last week i got 39.9 TT 

Yes.. that was last week.. and at the moment on X-rates 38.84

 

[elgenon]

I think the OP is a bit of a looney, The dollar is 32.08 Baht. It was less than that last year. That's freefall? Please think about what you are saying and don't just say something because it sounds good to you. You are not America's Dear Leader.