Sweden - is the rest of the world dumb, blind or worse ?

[vermin on arrival]

3 hours ago, talahtnut said:

Isn't solitary confinement illegal for prisoners

in some countries?

“We’ve seen a year’s worth of suicide attempts in the

last four weeks,” Dr Mike deBoisblanc, lead trauma

surgeon at the John Muir Medical Center in Walnut

Creek, California, told local media on Thursday,

confirming the center had seen more deaths from

suicide over the two-month lockdown period than

deaths from coronavirus.

 

Yes and here is the link from May22: https://abc7news.com/suicide-covid-19-coronavirus-rates-during-pandemic-death-by/6201962/

[MikeyIdea]

5 hours ago, Logosone said:

 

No, Spain, Italy, UK, Belgium, Russia all of these countries will hurt for a much longer period than Sweden.

 

 

I missed Russia, that is correct. I certainly don't believe that the other countries will hurt longer, probably shorter as they have the spread under control. 

 

Sweden has backtracked you know, they now say that herd immunity never even was a goal

[Rimmer]

Off topic post and replies removed

[MikeyIdea]

6 hours ago, Logosone said:

I like Tegnell as well, he is a hero because he stood up against a majority and stood firm and he has prevailed.

He doesn't agree with everything. Being an epidemiologist, he wanted masks for all healthcare and response personnel regardless of where they work for instance. He wasn't the one saying that wasn't necessary. He didn't agree with that covid nurses could work in short sleeves if they had mask and visor either. Those were political decisions because no one would have cared for the covid sick otherwise. There's still not enough PPE for nurses. 

 

He's a very nice guy, let's agree on that ????

 

 

[MikeyIdea]

5 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

I'm waiting for results from the immunity tests in Sweden before making further judgements on their approach as its clear this is their target.

The Swedish health authorities are now backtracking and say that herd immunity was never their goal

[Logosone]

2 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

While its fine to debate current models in their infancy stages the proof this provides is that there has been a complete lack of coordination worldwide on this and that is the reason the world is in this mess. 

 

Much the same as a development of a vaccine, the initial trials in Phase 1 and 2 can provide very positive evidence of the potential. Its the trials in Phase 3 and 4 which are the ones that truly will provide all the necessary evidence.

 

The crucial matter is to have that evidence so that a worldwide action plan can then be implemented when the next pandemic occurs in the not too distant future and takes into account best practice for all countries regardless of their development and resources available to cope.

I think the world-wide coordination is a nice fantasy, but that is all it will ever be, we have seen with this virus that each country will make its own rules. Not just each country, within each country all the states and provinces will make their own rules. This is what's so infuriating, they can't all be right. Some have to be wrong. 

 

What we do know is that basing your policy on the work of Imperial College's Neil Ferguson's  would be a terrible mistake, and Sweden was very lucky that it did not do so.

[Logosone]

27 minutes ago, MikeyIdea said:

The Swedish health authorities are now backtracking and say that herd immunity was never their goal

It's not the health authorities, it is again a political drive, because it started with the foreign minister of Sweden claiming in a US interview that the Swedes were not pursuing herd immunity, when Tegnell had clearly implied this in his own interviews.

 

So yes, there is certainly backtracking now, but it is a political backtracking. Because the Swedish foreign minister was too embarasssed to say on US tv that 'yes we are hoping for herd immunity', she put a different diplomatic spin on it to avoid Sweden looking like a heartless science monster. We saw the exact same thing in the UK with the UK swiftly backtracking politically when their scientists disclosed they were hoping for herd immunity.

[GroveHillWanderer]

7 hours ago, Logosone said:

I like Tegnell as well, he is a hero because he stood up against a majority and stood firm and he has prevailed.

 

You can certainly say that Sweden has succeeded. A look at their mortality figure, 0.039 of the population having passed, mostly older people, this shows that their policy has succeded in avoiding coronapocalypse, which so many had wished onto Sweden a few weeks ago because they dared not to impose mandatory lockdowns.  Sweden has been a success, even if their mortality would double or triple, the figure is still miniscule. Therefore Sweden was correct. Avoiding mandatory lockdown is preferable, their economic benefits are clear, and the death rate can be kept low regardlesss. So Sweden was correct.

 

Sure, they made a few mistakes such as neglecting care homes, but every single country, including the UK with its Gestapo lockdown made that mistake. They could have tested more and their figures would have been on the Norway and Finland level. 

 

Still, overall Sweden's policy has been a success. Nobody can deny it and be taken seriously. 

I don't know abut that - lots of "serious" and well-respected publications are casting doubt on the success of Sweden's policy. Among them are the Financial Times, Forbes Magazine and Business Insider.

 

Quote

Conspicuously, in the past week, based on a rolling seven-day average, Sweden currently has the highest per capita mortality rate in Europe, having overtaken the U.K., Italy and Belgium. In recent weeks, as deaths have decreased significantly in most other European countries, Sweden’s numbers have remained flat.

Has Sweden's coronavirus gamble paid off?

 

Quote

Sweden's per capita coronavirus death toll is among the highest in the world — a sign its decision to avoid a lockdown may not be working

Sweden's per capita death rate among the highest

 

Quote

"Norway, Denmark and Iceland have managed to stabilise their situation, but in Sweden the situation is more alarming." 

Sweden’s death toll unnerves its Nordic neighbours

 

As for doing better economically, even Sweden's own central bank doesn't think so.

 

Quote

... data released from the country’s central bank and a leading Swedish think tank show that the economy will be just as badly hit as its European neighbors, if not worse.

Swedish economy to contract as severely as the rest of Europe
 

[GroveHillWanderer]

7 hours ago, Logosone said:

I like Tegnell as well, he is a hero because he stood up against a majority and stood firm and he has prevailed.

Even Anders Tegnell has now said he is not convinced Sweden's policy is correct, and that he is surprised by the high death toll.

 

Quote

 

Quote

Sweden’s chief epidemiologist has admitted he is “not convinced” his country’s strategy of dealing with coronavirus without introducing a strict lockdown is the right decision.

Tegnell "not convinced"

Quote

The man leading Sweden's coronavirus response says the country's elevated death toll "really came as a surprise to us."

 

"We never really calculated with a high death toll initially, I must say," he said.

 

Quote

 

 

Anders Tegnell: high death toll a surprise

[Bkk Brian]

2 minutes ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

Even Anders Tegnell has now said he is not convinced Sweden's policy is correct, and that he is surprised by the high death toll.

 

Indeed:

 

The scientist behind Sweden's controversial coronavirus plan says he is still not sure whether the country made the right decision by not implementing a lockdown.

"I'm not convinced at all," Anders Tegnell, Sweden's state epidemiologist, told the Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet on Friday, adding that the country's Public Health Agency — where he works — was constantly monitoring the situation.

"We are constantly thinking about this … What can we do better and what else can we add on?" he said, according to The Independent.

"I think the most important thing all the time is to try to do it as well as you can, with the knowledge we have and the tools you have in place. And to be humble all the time because you may have to change." 

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-sweden-no-lockdown-anders-tegnell-not-convinced-right-call-2020-5

[MikeyIdea]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

It's not the health authorities, it is again a political drive, because it started with the foreign minister of Sweden claiming in a US interview that the Swedes were not pursuing herd immunity, when Tegnell had clearly implied this in his own interviews.

I have listened to Anders Tegnell's interviews in Swedish almost every day. He said "will eventually lead to herd immunity". I don't know how to explain it, his eventually was a bit quiet sort of. He certainly wasn't pushing the word. I think this matches that he is an honest person. 

Edited May 24, 2020 by MikeyIdea

[Peter Denis]

19 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Indeed:

 

The scientist behind Sweden's controversial coronavirus plan says he is still not sure whether the country made the right decision by not implementing a lockdown.

"I'm not convinced at all," Anders Tegnell, Sweden's state epidemiologist, told the Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet on Friday, adding that the country's Public Health Agency — where he works — was constantly monitoring the situation.

"We are constantly thinking about this … What can we do better and what else can we add on?" he said, according to The Independent.

"I think the most important thing all the time is to try to do it as well as you can, with the knowledge we have and the tools you have in place. And to be humble all the time because you may have to change." 

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-sweden-no-lockdown-anders-tegnell-not-convinced-right-call-2020-5

Yes, he is honest and willing to change course when it turns out that the factual results are not supporting Sweden's chosen strategy.  

This does not mean that Sweden's strategy is wrong, but only that they are open-minded enough to evaluate the situation and correct where that seems appropriate.

If only other countries would have a scientific frame of mind like that, instead of the often politically dictated agendas we see.

[MikeyIdea]

1 hour ago, Peter Denis said:

Yes, he is honest and willing to change course when it turns out that the factual results are not supporting Sweden's chosen strategy.  

This does not mean that Sweden's strategy is wrong, but only that they are open-minded enough to evaluate the situation and correct where that seems appropriate.

If only other countries would have a scientific frame of mind like that, instead of the often politically dictated agendas we see.

Hang on. The Swedish health authorities don't decide how Sweden's strategy should look, they provide advice and model data and politicians decide. 

 

The Swedish politicians decision would have been the opposite if this virus had targeted the productive instead of the non productive. 

[Logosone]

3 hours ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

I don't know abut that - lots of "serious" and well-respected publications are casting doubt on the success of Sweden's policy. Among them are the Financial Times, Forbes Magazine and Business Insider.

 

Has Sweden's coronavirus gamble paid off?

 

Sweden's per capita death rate among the highest

 

Sweden’s death toll unnerves its Nordic neighbours

 

As for doing better economically, even Sweden's own central bank doesn't think so.

 

Swedish economy to contract as severely as the rest of Europe
 

Of course there's plenty of animosity towards Sweden, mainly from the anglo-saxon press. That's because Sweden doing the opposite of the UK is basically taken in the UK as "you're saying we're total idiots and we got it wrong", plus of course they resent the fact that Swedes going on with their lives a bit more normally makes the British look like the scared rabbits they are. So this brings up some real vitriol from the British press.

 

In the US, Trump had a little repeated spat with Sweden many times over, so many of his acolytes don't like Sweden, just as Trump doesn't like them.

 

None of these articles mean anything. What matters is this, Sweden has had 0.039 per cent of its population die, Sweden has avoided the horrendous death toll people like Neil Ferguson had falsely predicted and Sweden is okay. Indeed Sweden would be okay if its death rate doubled or tripled, because it is miniscule right now.

 

Yes, of course by making per capita comparisons of course you make Sweden look worse, because it's a small country the per capita figures are skewed against it, obviously larger population countries will look better. However this does not change the fact that only 0.039 per cent of Sweden's population died.

 

That's a miniscule number by any stretch of the imagination.

[Logosone]

2 hours ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

Even Anders Tegnell has now said he is not convinced Sweden's policy is correct, and that he is surprised by the high death toll.

 

 

 

Anders Tegnell: high death toll a surprise

Yes, I saw the full interview, Anders Tegnell is of course NOT questioning the whole of his strategy. He's merely honestly admitting that he can not be 100% per cent certain, he's also admitted some mistakes were made with old people's home. He's nothing if not an honest and intelligent man.

 

But he's said repeatedly he believes they are doing well, and they are. There's no doubt about it.

 

With only 0.039 per cent of the population having passed it is absolutely right that Sweden is doing fine.

 

Yes, of course they could have tested more, could have focused on old people's homes more, but all countries made those mistakes. Except possibly Germany, because Germans are smarter than anybody else, as is well known and accepted the world over by intelligent people.

[johnnybangkok]

16 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Yes, I saw the full interview, Anders Tegnell is of course NOT questioning the whole of his strategy. He's merely honestly admitting that he can not be 100% per cent certain, he's also admitted some mistakes were made with old people's home. He's nothing if not an honest and intelligent man.

 

But he's said repeatedly he believes they are doing well, and they are. There's no doubt about it.

 

With only 0.039 per cent of the population having passed it is absolutely right that Sweden is doing fine.

 

Yes, of course they could have tested more, could have focused on old people's homes more, but all countries made those mistakes. Except possibly Germany, because Germans are smarter than anybody else, as is well known and accepted the world over by intelligent people.

Apart from the Scottish of course. Everyone knows the Scottish are the smartest ????

 

I have debated you much in the past Logosone regarding the 'Swedish question' but I suppose my criticism boils down to your unnerving devotion to the Swedish solution without all the evidence in. It's the equivalent of pronouncing a race horse the winner, three quarters of the way through the race.

 

I sincerely hope the Swedish model becomes the model to emulate but I think you should be less bombastic until all the horses have at least crossed the line.  

[farang51]

24 minutes ago, Logosone said:

With only 0.039 per cent of the population having passed it is absolutely right that Sweden is doing fine.

It is getting really tiresome that you keep pushing that misleading number.

 

Since it is far from the whole population that has had the virus, you will have to raise that number by 10, 20 or maybe even more times. And, of course, a number like 0,039 per cent looks much more innocent than saying that 3.925 people died (per May 22nd).

[Logosone]

29 minutes ago, johnnybangkok said:

Apart from the Scottish of course. Everyone knows the Scottish are the smartest ????

 

I have debated you much in the past Logosone regarding the 'Swedish question' but I suppose my criticism boils down to your unnerving devotion to the Swedish solution without all the evidence in. It's the equivalent of pronouncing a race horse the winner, three quarters of the way through the race.

 

I sincerely hope the Swedish model becomes the model to emulate but I think you should be less bombastic until all the horses have at least crossed the line.  

Indeed Scottish people are almost intimidatingly smart. How such a small nation contributed so much to scientific knowledge, economic knowledge, literature and poetry is almost unexplainable. Unfortunately German philosophy is still a little better, but as we all know I'm not one to boast needlessly.

 

As for whether Sweden has been a success or not, on the current evidence it is clear, 0.039 percent of the population has passed, economically they were sensible, so yes the Swedish model has to be a success, on current evidence. If that evidence changes in the future, we shall see. But even if Sweden's mortality were to double or triple, Sweden is fine.

 

I'm not bombastic. I'm just clear. Being German is to be clear.

 

[hotandsticky]

I can't help feeling that the only meaningful number is the 'deaths per million of population'.

 

 

In that respect Sweden stands at 396 with only 4 major countries (Belgium 801, Italy 613, Spain 541, and UK 541 ) higher.

[Logosone]

4 minutes ago, hotandsticky said:

I can't help feeling that the only meaningful number is the 'deaths per million of population'.

 

 

In that respect Sweden stands at 396 with only 4 major countries (Belgium 801, Italy 613, Spain 541, and UK 541 ) higher.

The problem is if you simply relativize the death figures on a per capita or population basis, you are actually distorting the figures a bit because such comparisons will always favour countries with big populations and make countries with smaller populations look worse.

 

[hotandsticky]

3 minutes ago, Logosone said:

The problem is if you simply relativize the death figures on a per capita or population basis, you are actually distorting the figures a bit because such comparisons will always favour countries with big populations and make countries with smaller populations look worse.

 

 

 

 

That is true of very small nations such as San Marino that I omitted (1,238 death per million population with a population of only 33,924).

 

With a population of 10m + I would still argue that the deaths/million population is as good a measure of comparison as anything. Apart from Belgium (which really does stand out) Sweden compares poorly to nations of similar size (Belarus 21, Portugal 129, UAE 25, Israel 30, Austria 71, Dominican Republic 42, Czechia 29).

[hotandsticky]

I accept that it is easy to cherry-pick stats etc, that support a particular angle, but this chart doesn't do Sweden's policy any favours.

 

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

Indeed Scottish people are almost intimidatingly smart. How such a small nation contributed so much to scientific knowledge, economic knowledge, literature and poetry is almost unexplainable. Unfortunately German philosophy is still a little better, but as we all know I'm not one to boast needlessly.

 

As for whether Sweden has been a success or not, on the current evidence it is clear, 0.039 percent of the population has passed, economically they were sensible, so yes the Swedish model has to be a success, on current evidence. If that evidence changes in the future, we shall see. But even if Sweden's mortality were to double or triple, Sweden is fine.

 

I'm not bombastic. I'm just clear. Being German is to be clear.

 

Clearly. 

[Logosone]

1 hour ago, hotandsticky said:

I accept that it is easy to cherry-pick stats etc, that support a particular angle, but this chart doesn't do Sweden's policy any favours.

 

That chart ends on May 11th and Sweden has seen some of the greatest falls in new cases very recently.

 

Anyway, look at this chart, which gives deaths per million, since many people insist on this measure, though clearly it does favour countries with very large populations. Even taking this measure, Sweden is not doing so bad:

 

 

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

chart, which gives deaths per million, since many people insist on this measure

 

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

That chart ends on May 11th and Sweden has seen some of the greatest falls in new cases very recently.

 

Anyway, look at this chart, which gives deaths per million, since many people insist on this measure, though clearly it does favour countries with very large populations. Even taking this measure, Sweden is not doing so bad:

 

 

Belgium only has one more million people than Sweden - no favours there!

[Puccini]

Setting aside the comparison of the number of deaths due to the common flu with the number due to Covid-19, what can be said about the argument that restrictions and requirements were imposed specifically for the Covid-19 pandemic in order to avoid an overload or total collapse of a country's health care system?

[PingRoundTheWorld]

7 hours ago, hotandsticky said:

I accept that it is easy to cherry-pick stats etc, that support a particular angle, but this chart doesn't do Sweden's policy any favours.

Fake news! Cases in Sweden as a whole have been going sideways and actually started to go down in the last few weeks.

 

As for Stockholm specifically: it peaked on April 22 and there is a clear downward trend since. I couldn't find a graph of daily new cases so I made one - make your own conclusions about where this is going!!

Source: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

Edited May 24, 2020 by PingRoundTheWorld

[utalkin2me]

Problem 1 with the anti Sweden crowd is most of you have drastically changed your argument. You argument went from "the country will have hundreds of thousands dead" to "well, hmm, look at those numbers, they don't look so good". What will your argument be next week? When you are drastically changing your goalposts, your argument does not really hold up well. 

 

Problem 2, most anti Sweden people assume lockdowns should be compared with "normal society". This assumption throws your conclusions way off. Lockdowns simply are most likely not nearly as effective as you think they are. When people are let out of lockdowns, they don't behave "normally". A business meeting today will look a lot different than it did six months ago, and that is without any government regulation. So, lockdowns really have to be compared to how people are actually behaving today, and not how we behave in normal times. Big difference. 

 

Austria is a great example of this right now. They have been easing lockdowns for a long time. It does not seem to get reported on the news often that their results appear to be very good. 

 

If governmental regulations of social distancing and lockdowns were truly effective, we would see spikes in places like Austria. 

 

Problem 3 is the deaths piled up as a result of lockdowns in the long term will be massive and they are highly underestimated. I bet you could take one cause, something like depression related suicides. I bet over the next 5-10 years the number of extra suicides alone, caused by the lockdowns, could easily equal or surpass the covid deaths. That is just one cause. Imagine all the people not getting hospital care right now for things like early onset of cancer. 

Edited May 25, 2020 by utalkin2me

[hotandsticky]

8 minutes ago, utalkin2me said:

Problem 1 with the anti Sweden crowd is most of you have drastically changed your argument. You argument went from "the country will have hundreds of thousands dead"  

 

 

I think you are putting words in people's mouths....... I suspect that is your own vastly exaggerated number.

 

 

396 deaths per million population is nothing to crow about.

[pineapple01]

Norway seems to carry on OK