13 minutes ago, Logosone said:

But that NYT article you quoted from is all about infection rate:

 

"The coronavirus still has a long way to go. That’s the message from a crop of new studies across the world that are trying to quantify how many people have been infected."

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/28/upshot/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html

Yes I know thats why I put their Herd Immunity graphic in the post so people like you were clear but obviously that was not enough. 

 

However the CDC did not consult the NY Times and decided to make their own estimates on death rate, NOT INFECTION rate, its pretty well all there in my post. If you like seek out the studies from France and Spain to, on their population infection rates of 5% and 4.4%

 

LOL..........excuse me while I catch my breath at your takeaway of it but I can't read it for you ........LOL

50 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Yes I know thats why I put their Herd Immunity graphic in the post so people like you were clear but obviously that was not enough. 

 

However the CDC did not consult the NY Times and decided to make their own estimates on death rate, NOT INFECTION rate, its pretty well all there in my post. If you like seek out the studies from France and Spain to, on their population infection rates of 5% and 4.4%

 

LOL..........excuse me while I catch my breath at your takeaway of it but I can't read it for you ........LOL

Herd immunity refers to infection rates, no death rates. 

 

You took a graphic from a NYT article about infection rates, not death rates.

 

The article is clear, I think it's your mumbo jumbo that needs to be cleared up. If you rely on studies, you need to post links to them. That would avoid the confusion.

 

 

Just now, Logosone said:

Herd immunity refers to infection rates, no death rates. 

 

You took a graphic from a NYT article about infection rates, not death rates.

 

The article is clear, I think it's your mumbo jumbo that needs to be cleared up. If you rely on studies, you need to post links to them. That would avoid the confusion.

 

 

Oh dear.......................I'm referring to several different articles actually if you read it: 

 

"I have not linked to the above studies purely because if you are interested enough then you can easily find them on Google." or mumbo jumbo for you

 

People have brought up Norway many times in this conversation. It turns out, the prime minister of Norway herself has said "it was probably a mistake to lockdown schools, we probably overreacted based on fear and images of Italy".... that was paraphrased, read for yourself. 

 

Norway locked down. Are there fewer deaths as a direct result of the lockdown? I would say it is likely. But, it does not take into account the likely infections in the future, which Sweden has always argued will "even out" in the long run. This is also the type of thing that the prime minister of Norway seems to be referring to with her statements. 

 

If anybody locks down a society, they will most likely see fewer deaths in say car accidents deaths. How can you get in an accident sitting in your house. But, do I even need to say it, locking down has severe consequences that far outweigh and benefits of those deaths when not locking down. Again, countries like Norway who are actually honest with their citizens, are obviously already starting to admit this. 

 

Speaking of lockdowns affecting economies, it seems Sweden is doing pretty well during all of this, which makes sense. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/29/coronavirus-swedens-gdp-actually-grew-in-the-first-quarter.html

 

Of course the media is going to spin all of this. That is so obvious. If you don't realize that the media will be biased against Sweden's approach, it is impossible to have a conversation. No matter how well Sweden does they will say horrible things about them, because the truth is Sweden is currently exposing countries like America to be the fumbling idiots they are. 

 

 

 

44 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Oh dear.......................I'm referring to several different articles actually if you read it: 

 

"I have not linked to the above studies purely because if you are interested enough then you can easily find them on Google." or mumbo jumbo for you

 

 

It is clear at this point, and will become crystal clear in the coming months (although the media will spin it), that lockdowns were the wrong move. 

 

The reasons counties locked down were 

China

Italy

Neil "I wrecked the world" Fergison's ridiculous report

Fear

Monkey-see-monkey do

 

The world was destroyed for nothing, and now they will proceed to make you believe they did the right thing. That is really all there is to it. Sweden did not lock down. There is just no denying that the lockdowns were not anywhere near worth it at this point. 

 

 

 

Not sure if this has been discussed somewhere else.

 

Czech Republic opens up June 15, with no quarantine and no covid testing for countries in the green zone.

 

For countries such as Sweden and UK, that are in the red zone, a covid test will be required both ways.

 

For countries in the yellow zone, covid test one way.

 

As I stated before, we here in Europe like to be proactive in regards to avoiding mandatory quarantine, whilst we open up travelling.

 

https://www.praguemorning.cz/map-where-czech-residents-are-allowed-to-go-from-june-15/

1 hour ago, utalkin2me said:

 Speaking of lockdowns affecting economies, it seems Sweden is doing pretty well during all of this, which makes sense. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/29/coronavirus-swedens-gdp-actually-grew-in-the-first-quarter.html

 

Of course the media is going to spin all of this. That is so obvious. If you don't realize that the media will be biased against Sweden's approach, it is impossible to have a conversation. No matter how well Sweden does they will say horrible things about them, because the truth is Sweden is currently exposing countries like America to be the fumbling idiots they are. 

I think there's a time and place for lockdowns in certain circumstances, however, it encouraging that Swedens economy is not suffering as bad as the rest of the world and if Swedens model does turn out to have been the best play for them, then serious takeaways need to be looked at from other countries of course and I'll bet Boris and Trump will be kicking themselves sure. 

 

However I don't think media will put a spin on this as their the ones that are reporting it from your link.

 

Sweden has currently only given figures for its population infection rate in Stockholm of 7.3%, its still a long way to go and also for the rest of the country. We're waiting for those as that seems to be the target that they have set themselves in this.

 

Sweden are using Immunity tests to test as many people as they can, as these give a far more accurate picture of population infection percentage. The PCR tests only give a snaphot at that given time. Of course they combine both.

.

In the UK, the govt wanted lockdown, the opposition wanted lockdown, the media especially wanted lockdown, there were only a few lone voices arguing for no lockdown such as Peter Hitchens, so most will try to just sweep this under the carpet and say hindsight is a beautiful thing, but there is no way future epidemics can be tackled the same way, just way too costly and that's only just beginning to unfold

If people have trouble with the telegraphs paywall https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8373857/Norways-PM-admits-closed-schools-nurseries-fear.html

On 5/16/2020 at 7:43 PM, Bender Rodriguez said:

google:  corona sweden somali

Interesting...  I wonder if it is a result of lifestyle or social conditions

5 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

In the UK, the govt wanted lockdown, the opposition wanted lockdown, the media especially wanted lockdown, there were only a few lone voices arguing for no lockdown such as Peter Hitchens, so most will try to just sweep this under the carpet and say hindsight is a beautiful thing, but there is no way future epidemics can be tackled the same way, just way too costly and that's only just beginning to unfold

I'm not so sure about that. If the ones in power think a lockdown will help them to stay in power, win the next election, they will go for it, no matter the destruction and damage it causes - for others.

1 hour ago, utalkin2me said:

But, do I even need to say it, locking down has severe consequences that far outweigh and benefits of those deaths when not locking down.

Are you saying life is secondary to ??

10 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

In the UK, the govt wanted lockdown, the opposition wanted lockdown, the media especially wanted lockdown, there were only a few lone voices arguing for no lockdown such as Peter Hitchens, so most will try to just sweep this under the carpet and say hindsight is a beautiful thing, but there is no way future epidemics can be tackled the same way, just way too costly and that's only just beginning to unfold

Even now people want lockdowns. They love them! 

 

Peter Hitchens has been saying the correct thing all along: "we do not know if lockdowns are effective, but we know stopping the economy kills". 

 

Interestingly, predictors of the future like him and Nobel prize winner Levitt will get zero credit when it becomes clear lockdowns were wrong. And all the people who promoted lockdowns will get promotions. It is the play ball pattern. Right and wrong means nothing. All that matters if you wanna move up in modern day societies is whether you will play ball or not. 

4 minutes ago, yuyiinthesky said:

I'm not so sure about that. If the ones in power think a lockdown will help them to stay in power, win the next election, they will go for it, no matter the destruction and damage it causes - for others.

I think Boris just bottled it at the vital time and was under pressure to copy France and the rest with lockdown, the only good news for him is labour wanted lockdown so are equally to blame

24 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

However I don't think media will put a spin on this as their the ones that are reporting it from your link.

The anglo-saxon media has definitely tried to spin Sweden's policies as irresponsible, heartless and misguided. There were countless articles attacking Sweden's approach.

 

The reason was of course that the British were aware they were in a hard mandatory lockdown and another country keeping its cool, and not overreacting the same way, was making the Brits look a bit foolish, overly scared and over the top. So they wanted Sweden to fail. 

 

Now we know that Sweden got it right and the UK got it badly wrong and overreacted those articles have stopped, strangely. 

 

 

7 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Herd Immunity is still a long way off but while tracking the statistics for this, the good news for us all is that the more evidence we have of a higher rate of population infection then the more evidence we can gain on the actual true death rates

....

Yes, the herd immunity estimates had been 60-80% infected. That figure is meant as that these 60-80% cannot get infected (anymore), and cannot transmit the virus.

 

We know by now that a previous infection is not absolutely needed for a person to "cannot get infected (anymore), and cannot transmit the virus". Quite a few studies have shown that apparently not everybody gets infected. And this does not mean the asymptotic infections, but no infection, despite exposure. Just to name one study, look at the Heinsberg study of Professor Streeck, showing that even within families (households) only a few members got infected, and, the bigger the family the lower the infection rate in that family.

This is supported by some studies, for example, as mentioned here earlier, the immune system of 40%–60% already reacts on SARS-CoV-2 after getting trained by the common cold Corona viruses:

Quote

Importantly, we detected SARS-CoV-2-reactive CD4+ T cells in 40%–60% of unexposed individuals, suggesting cross- reactive T cell recognition between circulating ‘‘common cold’’ coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2.

Source: https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30610-3.pdf

Thus the 60-80% of immune persons estimated for reaching herd immunity might very well don't need all of them coming from an infection, but other factors can contribute, such as the apparent base immunity visible in studies such as the Heinsberg study, and this immune system reaction caused by the exposure to other Corona viruses.

 

Of course we do not know yet the exact details, but we see already the infection and death rates dropping down, a strong indication that either the virus is not as contagious as expected or the level of resistance and immunity in the population is higher than the infection rates shown above suggest. Either one of them would be good news already.

 

 

 

14 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Now we know that Sweden got it right and the UK got it badly wrong and overreacted those articles have stopped, strangely. 

Now we know that Sweden got it right?

 

Better tell that to the rest of the world, because nobody knows who got it right just yet, running before we can walk stating that

13 minutes ago, yuyiinthesky said:

Yes, the herd immunity estimates had been 60-80% infected. That figure is meant as that these 60-80% cannot get infected (anymore), and cannot transmit the virus.

 

We know by now that a previous infection is not absolutely needed for a person to "cannot get infected (anymore), and cannot transmit the virus". Quite a few studies have shown that apparently not everybody gets infected. And this does not mean the asymptotic infections, but no infection, despite exposure. Just to name one study, look at the Heinsberg study of Professor Streeck, showing that even within families (households) only a few members got infected, and, the bigger the family the lower the infection rate in that family.

This is supported by some studies, for example, as mentioned here earlier, the immune system of 40%–60% already reacts on SARS-CoV-2 after getting trained by the common cold Corona viruses:

Source: https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30610-3.pdf

Thus the 60-80% of immune persons estimated for reaching herd immunity might very well don't need all of them coming from an infection, but other factors can contribute, such as the apparent base immunity visible in studies such as the Heinsberg study, and this immune system reaction caused by the exposure to other Corona viruses.

 

Of course we do not know yet the exact details, but we see already the infection and death rates dropping down, a strong indication that either the virus is not as contagious as expected or the level of resistance and immunity in the population is higher than the infection rates shown above suggest. Either one of them would be good news already.

 

 

 

Yep agreed, studies various enormously on natural herd immunity levels and you could be right but we need to be careful

 

Dr. Michael Ryan, executive director of the WHO’s health emergencies programme said it was wrong to think that countries can “magically” make their populations immune to novel coronavirus.

 

“We need to be careful while using terms in this way around natural infections in humans because it can lead to a very brutal arithmetic which does not put people, life and suffering at the centre of that equation,” he said.

28 minutes ago, yuyiinthesky said:

 

 

We know by now that a previous infection is not absolutely needed for a person to "cannot get infected (anymore), and cannot transmit the virus". Quite a few studies have shown that apparently not everybody gets infected. And this does not mean the asymptotic infections, but no infection, despite exposure. Just to name one study, look at the Heinsberg study of Professor Streeck, showing that even within families (households) only a few members got infected, and, the bigger the family the lower the infection rate in that family.

This is supported by some studies, for example, as mentioned here earlier, the immune system of 40%–60% already reacts on SARS-CoV-2 after getting trained by the common cold Corona viruses:

Source: https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30610-3.pdf

Thus the 60-80% of immune persons estimated for reaching herd immunity might very well don't need all of them coming from an infection, but other factors can contribute, such as the apparent base immunity visible in studies such as the Heinsberg study, and this immune system reaction caused by the exposure to other Corona viruses.

 

Of course we do not know yet the exact details, but we see already the infection and death rates dropping down, a strong indication that either the virus is not as contagious as expected or the level of resistance and immunity in the population is higher than the infection rates shown above suggest. Either one of them would be good news already.

 

 

 

That's actually a good point. Indeed some people's T-cell response can defeat the virus without antibodies, which has perplexed some researchers. So indeed infection is not needed to have immunity.

 

Of course quantifying those people would very hard to do.

34 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Now we know that Sweden got it right?

 

Better tell that to the rest of the world, because nobody knows who got it right just yet, running before we can walk stating that

Well if even the Norwegian prime minister publicly apologises and admits she should have acted more like Sweden, I think we can be sure Sweden is doing it right. 

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/30/coronavirus-norway-wonders-should-have-like-sweden/

5 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Well if even the Norwegian prime minister publicly apologises and admits she should have acted more like Sweden, I think we can be sure Sweden is doing it right. 

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/30/coronavirus-norway-wonders-should-have-like-sweden/

Absolutely if the Norwegian PM admits they should have kept the schools open then we can be sure Sweden is doing something right?

 

Yep ok lets go for it, thats all the evidence needed, lets inform Dr. Michael Ryan at WHO straight away in case he's not heard of this particular back track by Norway's PM. Lets also tell him this is a scientific assessment thats you've already concluded the results and we are sure its correct.

24 minutes ago, Logosone said:

No need, he's already lauded Sweden as the model to follow

 

Yes seen that, "there maybe lessons to be learnt." Its what separates a professional from a non expert TV poster

 

He clearly does not promote the herd immunity policy as stated in my previous quote stating its dangerous.

 

As in all measures that we can learn from throughout different models that some countries are using, rather than saying one model is the only way to go, we have to be a little more open and say that as this is still ongoing we still have a lot to learn, including you. Certainly me and certainly the scientists and politicians.

1 hour ago, drgoon said:

Interesting...  I wonder if it is a result of lifestyle or social conditions

black skin = natural sun block

 

living in the wrong part of the world... with no / less sun during the winter

 

many deaths in Usa are also .... black people

 

less VITAMIN D ... sadly the pseudo experts will not test the vitamin D levels

 

they are most likely very deficient

12 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

As in all measures that we can learn throughout different models that some countries are using, rather than saying one model is the only way to go, we have to be a little more open and say that as this is still ongoing we still have a lot to learn, including you. Certainly me and certainly the scientists and politicians.

 

I totally agree. The ideal response would most likely be the relaxed no-lockdown approach of Sweden, coupled with Iceland's testing, Germany's clinical management and South Korea's tracing programme.

5 minutes ago, Logosone said:

I totally agree. The ideal response would most likely be the relaxed no-lockdown approach of Sweden, coupled with Iceland's testing, Germany's clinical management and South Korea's tracing programme.

Possibly yes.

Is it me or does Mike Ryan look like Captain Kirk?

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

I totally agree. The ideal response would most likely be the relaxed no-lockdown approach of Sweden, coupled with Iceland's testing, Germany's clinical management and South Korea's tracing programme.

And Taiwan's inside track.

20 minutes ago, nauseus said:

And Taiwan's inside track.

Yup, would have been good to understand what's going on in China.