Thai economy slips into recession after worst quarter in eight years

[thailand49]

16 hours ago, Ranshoko said:

To be expected. Most other countries will end up the same. However, I suspect the Bankers and Government will manipulate the Baht and keep it strong. 

So true!  Anyone living here can see what is happening to their economy yet all of a sudden their baht is getting stronger each day.

[kwak250]

Oh the mighty baht so strong that no tourists will afford to holiday here in the future .

It used to be so cheap,

nowadays it's just slightly cheaper at best.

[Enzian]

Well, you can complain that the elite is keeping their holdings and the baht strong despite what is happening on the ground (and at the moment the bhat is creeping back in the direction of 30/dollar, amazing). But it also means that my US30K in an uninsured Thai bank FCD account (for visa renewal) is not in much danger; pluses and minuses in everything. 

[tonray]

17 hours ago, Ranshoko said:

To be expected. Most other countries will end up the same. However, I suspect the Bankers and Government will manipulate the Baht and keep it strong. 

No manipulation needed if the Euro the Dollar and the Pound are being forced downward by their own Central banks. 

[phantomfiddler]

Why have they not arrested the man on the beach and jailed him for a year ?

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, mrfill said:

Since 2014 the UK GDP figure has included estimates for the illegal drug trade and prostitution. It raised the position of the UK from 6th to 5th largest economy.

https://quarterly.blog.gov.uk/2014/10/15/sex-drugs-and-gdp/

There you have it, the whole enchilada of crime: drug trade, prostitution and financial crime!

 

Remove all that and the UK's economy would be that of an average African country...

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, thailand49 said:

So true!  Anyone living here can see what is happening to their economy yet all of a sudden their baht is getting stronger each day.

The baht is not getting stronger.

 

Since the beginning of the year, the baht has lost ground against the US dollar and the euro.

 

And nobody is pushing it higher because it is impossible.

 

To do that, the "manipulators" would have to buy the baht by selling billions of US dollars and other major currencies.

 

And where would these foreign currencies come from?

 

One can't imagine the local billionaires, sitting on piles of US dollars, selling them to buy the baht, in order to...be able to buy US dollars!

 

Nonsense!

 

[Elkski]

I like the bathtub curve description.   Ot is going to be a painful few years to start this decade.  When deaths are saved it won't show if correct choices were made because we dont know how many  were saved.   I think all you virus naysayers need to have a ¥ marked in red on your profile.   Then let's see how many bumps and time it will take to get this virus under control.  But I'm thinking in terms of years.   

[Srikcir]

Wasn't it in 2018 that Prayut proclaimed with fanfare that the economy recovered since 2012? The intervening years of pro-military protests that effectively shutdown the Yingluck government and the military coup of 2014 that further crashed the economy was finally overcome.

 

Rather the potential for continued economic progress should those economic reversals not occured, the economy might have now been able to absorb the financial impact resulting from coronavirus to a degree that a substantial economic stimulus could be effected.

 

[BestB]

Truth is they only guessing and speculating on economy growth.

 

Thailand managed to climb out of pandemic pretty well and fast, but government do not know what to do next.

 

Thai economy depends on the rest of the world no matter how much they deny it. 
 

Tourism can not rebound if other countries are still struggling with virus , same applies to exports 

 

this would be perfect timing to devalue baht without losing the face and escaping attention , this should boost exports.

 

i also do not understand what is happening with Thai government , one day they are struggling to find money to pay 5000 baht , next day they are ready to bail out Thai with 60 billion baht to then investing 1 trillion into recovery.

 

so they have the money? Do not have? Maybe have? 

[spidermike007]

Since the major economies of the world have never been deliberately shut down, in the history of mankind, for a dozen very good reasons, nobody knows how we are doing to emerge from this, how long it will take, what the long term ramifications of the shutdown are going to be, how many millions will remain without a job, how many millions of small businesses will not be able to re-open, and when tourism will return. So, any and all projections are just that. Most are based on computer models, and computers are far more effective if they have good information to work with. In this case, there is no information to work with, as this has never happened before. The economic shutdown was an experiment in insanity. Projecting the economic recovery is equally insane, and a complete folly in hubris. 

 

I get why Thailand is desperate to revive tourism. The fall off has been a major financial hit, and also a great humiliation for the administration. There have been multiple sources that have quoted July 1st, as an opening date, for incoming international flights. But, nobody knows if that is certain, and nobody knows what the requirements will be.

 

A Covid free letter may be required, and I know for a fact those cannot be obtained in the US, at any price.

Also, there may be a requirement of health insurance, without a pandemic exemption, which will be quite costly, and who knows what else.

 

Though Thailand wants, and desperately needs international tourism, it must be very careful, as the country has done a great job in keeping the number of cases and the death rate low, and it has to be very vigilant against a second wave. If that second wave is going to happen here, it will not come from within. We have beaten Covid into the ground here. It is DOA. Thailand is one of the safest places on earth right now, in terms of Covid, in my opinion. But, it is raging throughout the world, and much care has to be taken to prevent it from slipping back in. The revival of tourism here will depend on how quickly them come up with a vaccine, and how desirable the world perceives Thailand to be, after all of this is over. Also, the biggest factor that is not being taken into account, by small men with little minds, like Pipat, and Anutin, is the fact that the target group that Thailand has been attracting for the past several years (low to lower middle income Chinese and Indians) are the ones hardest hit by this virus. It could be a long time before they have the extra money to be taking international trips. 

 

Will nations be rated, depending on the number of cases, the number of deaths, how recent the curve flattened, etc? If so, it will be quite difficult to get in from the US (the most radioactive people in the world in terms of tourism in the near future) Spain, Russia, UK, Brazil, Italy, France, Germany, Turkey, Iran, India, Canada, and quite possibly China. The world leaders. In Covid. 

Edited May 19, 2020 by spidermike007

[iaminwa]

18 hours ago, worgeordie said:

The bad news for Thailand,has not affected the Baht at all,

what's it going to take !

regards Worgeordie

The property collapse - which is coming.

[Miami007]

19 hours ago, scubascuba3 said:

No surprise if you sacrifice the economy

So true.. media in the USA is acting surprised that we have 36 million unemployed.  

What did they expect?? Full employment at full wages at home and no work to do??

[Miami007]

8 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Since the major economies of the world have never been deliberately shut down, in the history of mankind, for a dozen very good reasons, nobody knows how we are doing to emerge from this, how long it will take, what the long term ramifications of the shutdown are going to be, how many millions will remain without a job, how many millions of small businesses will not be able to re-open, and when tourism will return. So, any and all projections are just that. Most are based on computer models, and computers are far more effective if they have good information to work with. In this case, there is no information to work with, as this has never happened before. The economic shutdown was an experiment in insanity. Projecting the economic recovery is equally insane, and a complete folly in hubris. 

 

I get why Thailand is desperate to revive tourism. The fall off has been a major financial hit, and also a great humiliation for the administration. There have been multiple sources that have quoted July 1st, as an opening date, for incoming international flights. But, nobody knows if that is certain, and nobody knows what the requirements will be.

 

A Covid free letter may be required, and I know for a fact those cannot be obtained in the US, at any price.

Also, there may be a requirement of health insurance, without a pandemic exemption, which will be quite costly, and who knows what else.

 

Though Thailand wants, and desperately needs international tourism, it must be very careful, as the country has done a great job in keeping the number of cases and the death rate low, and it has to be very vigilant against a second wave. If that second wave is going to happen here, it will not come from within. We have beaten Covid into the ground here. It is DOA. Thailand is one of the safest places on earth right now, in terms of Covid, in my opinion. But, it is raging throughout the world, and much care has to be taken to prevent it from slipping back in. The revival of tourism here will depend on how quickly them come up with a vaccine, and how desirable the world perceives Thailand to be, after all of this is over. Also, the biggest factor that is not being taken into account, by small men with little minds, like Pipat, and Anutin, is the fact that the target group that Thailand has been attracting for the past several years (low to lower middle income Chinese and Indians) are the ones hardest hit by this virus. It could be a long time before they have the extra money to be taking international trips. 

 

Will nations be rated, depending on the number of cases, the number of deaths, how recent the curve flattened, etc? If so, it will be quite difficult to get in from the US (the most radioactive people in the world in terms of tourism in the near future) Spain, Russia, UK, Brazil, Italy, France, Germany, Turkey, Iran, India, Canada, and quite possibly China. The world leaders. In Covid. 

How did Thailand beat the virus by allowing chinese tourists until March 7. 

The restrictions alone can't explain that - especially as the virus was active in Europe and USA late last year. It must have been in China in October or November.  Maybe there were previous undetected outbreaks in Thailand and the population has some immunity already built up. 

 

Thailand is not testing a lot of people,  so I would not say that the virus is eradicated. It will be here to stay. I feel that overall the country is safe to visit, but you just have to meet 1 wrong person and have a problem. 

 

Tests give you a better chance of filtering out people,  but they are not 100% either.

We better adjust to living with the virus as most people will NOT die. Many even have no symptoms at all.

 

[Brunolem]

17 minutes ago, iaminwa said:

The property collapse - which is coming.

Already there...at least in Pattaya where I know a few wannabe sellers unable to sell, even at half the price they bought...

[Mikeasq60]

And the Thai air borders are still shut down until the end of June. Makes a lot of sense doesn't it oh I know even if it saves one life. It didnt matter before, why is now so special? The Thai economy is officially tanked!

[Fairynuff]

18 hours ago, tribalfusion001 said:

I'm sure the UK can come to an arrangement for a corridor too.

The UK made it quite clear they can do it on their own. All that wartime spirit and all that.

[spidermike007]

32 minutes ago, Miami007 said:

How did Thailand beat the virus by allowing chinese tourists until March 7. 

The restrictions alone can't explain that - especially as the virus was active in Europe and USA late last year. It must have been in China in October or November.  Maybe there were previous undetected outbreaks in Thailand and the population has some immunity already built up. 

 

Thailand is not testing a lot of people,  so I would not say that the virus is eradicated. It will be here to stay. I feel that overall the country is safe to visit, but you just have to meet 1 wrong person and have a problem. 

 

Tests give you a better chance of filtering out people,  but they are not 100% either.

We better adjust to living with the virus as most people will NOT die. Many even have no symptoms at all.

 

In my opinion you can tell the number of people who have Covid, by the numbers who are dying. The virus has a definitive incubation period. It does not stay in one's system indefinitely. Two weeks, and either you are sick, or you are well and it has passed, as your body has beaten it. Covid is not like a ghost in a horror film. The lack of infections and the lack of deaths says it has moved on from Thailand, and we have beaten this pest into the ground. Tests are not necessary, when you do not have Covid illness. Period. Cling to whatever disaster scenario makes you happy. The Zombies are NOT coming. 

[tomauasia]

Yes we have no new virus. Let's lock the airports and starve these people. For our own greedy business ventures. What a absolute disgusting group of people. To add to it you can be tested for COVID 19 before you fly. There is no reason to take these measures other than there own agenda 

[Brunolem]

3 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

In my opinion you can tell the number of people who have Covid, by the numbers who are dying. 

As long as the deaths are counted correctly (fairly) which is probably the case in Asia, but not in the West where the numbers are boosted.

 

Living aside the outliers and their above 10% death rates, the average rate appear to be close to 1%.

 

With its 56 deaths that would mean that Thailand could have around 5,600 infected residents, which would be above the 3,000 registered until now.

 

We will know soon enough...

[Harry Fingerling]

19 hours ago, Brunolem said:

Yes capitals letters should be used only for DEPRESSION, which is what is coming, and not only for Thailand.

 

I haven't seen anything about a one trillion baht borrowing...last week they started selling bonds for up to 50 billion baht, but that's a long way from a trillion, unless they plan to borrow the balance on foreign markets.

 

No U shaped recovery, unless the bottom of the U is as long as a bath tub.

 

The effects of the recession/depression have yet to be felt...until now many families have gone on thanks to the 5,000 baht scheme and their savings, but this is not going to last long.

 

By July, a lot misery is going to start settling everywhere, especially in cities...

 

A long 2020...that will only be the first year of a long decade...

 

Tourism only accounts for a fifth of GDP. Tourism from a western pov has been in steady decline since 2015. What’s killing their balance of payments is the high baht. Exports of electronics, rice, fish & chicken have seen neighbouring economies taking their markets ultimately driving down the price of the farmers who were already getting a bum deal. Will get much worse as time progresses

[bristolgeoff]

same everywhere in the world.it will come back like every other country in time

[Percy P]

21 hours ago, Ranshoko said:

To be expected. Most other countries will end up the same. However, I suspect the Bankers and Government will manipulate the Baht and keep it strong. 

Can not . The value of the Baht is centred not only against the economy. Can Thailand withstand a downfall in is earnings, I think it can. The Foreign Reserve Account is strong and could pay for all Thailands foreign debts. 

The value you get for your money will depend on the economy and Foreign Reserve Account (FRA) of one's country. Many countries economy's are in bad shape together with their FRA . If one doesn't like the exchange rate, take it up with the government of one country

[Patts]

No matter what happens in Thailand the Baht will remain strong. In 2011 when Thailand experienced flood and many internation business had to close the Baht barely moved. 

[Percy P]

21 hours ago, worgeordie said:

The bad news for Thailand,has not affected the Baht at all,

what's it going to take !

regards Worgeordie

When Thailand can not pay for its foreign debt  there will be a problem. Thailand Foreign Reserve Account is in good shape so they have no problem. Tourism will pick up soon ., Chinese will be back .

[Brunolem]

53 minutes ago, Harry Fingerling said:

Tourism only accounts for a fifth of GDP. 

"Only".

 

We live in a world where having only 99% of the GDP (a 1% recession) is a complete disaster, because of too much debt.

 

Countries need at least 102 or 103% of GDP, growth included, just to go on.

 

No country can survive with 20% of its GDP missing for an extended period of time.

 

And yet this is what Thailand is facing, with its oblivious government who believe that, as soon as it will say "come in, we are open", the tourists will rush in as if nothing had never happened.

 

Thailand has played a dangerous game by being over reliant on foreign tourism, even worse on focusing on only one country, China, to supply the bulk of the tourists.

 

Mass tourism is a very bad choice, and now is the time to refocus and look for other sources of income.

[Peterphuket]

21 hours ago, DrTuner said:

So, when is BoT going to do QE? Machine says brrrrrrrr....

They only like to do in the EU.

And we know the results now, much better.....ha, ha, ha.

Edited May 19, 2020 by Peterphuket

[Brunolem]

3 minutes ago, Percy P said:

Tourism will pick up soon ., Chinese will be back .

Dream on.

 

China is facing Covid 19 part 2, with more than 100 million people under lockdown...not to mention the 11 million in Wuhan who need to be tested one by one, all of them!

 

Never mind what Thailand wants, China is not about to open the floodgates and send its hordes of tourists abroad.

[Percy P]

21 hours ago, hugolars said:

Yes, the elite does not want their trillions to loose its value.
I wonder if there is financial mechanism to detect currency manipulation or if its unofficially pegged to other currency.  

Yes its called IMF and America  will be watching.

[Millcx]

21 hours ago, Brunolem said:

Some countries show annualized GDP figures, while others show only the quarter, which explain the wide discrepancies from one to another.

 

A large part of the UK's economy is made of (criminal) financial transactions, run from the cesspool known as the City.

 

Crime never sleeps and never goes into recession.

 

Lucky Brits...

 

Think you will find it’s Wall Street that  should be pointed at hahahahaha