Thai economy could take more than 2 years to recover: Standard Chartered

By THE NATION

 

Tim Leelahaphan, economist at Standard Chartered Bank (Thai)

 

Standard Chartered Bank today (May 28) said it remains conservative on Thailand’s economic outlook, even as positive signs emerge with the possibility of a further policy rate cut to below 0.25 per cent.

 

The return to pre-Covid levels of economic activity could take more than two years on the back of improving business sentiment as the economy reopens, the bank assessed, adding the government has been disbursing cash handouts to pandemic-affected households since April.

 

Standard Chartered forecast Thailand’s 2020 GDP to contract by 5 per cent, with a sharp contraction of 13 per cent in the second quarter, followed by a gradual recovery in the second half of the year.

 

“The export sector is showing signs of recovery and should benefit from China’s resumption of activity and the easing of lockdowns in other markets. Data released in June is likely to confirm a domestic demand recovery after Thailand’s reopening in May. However, we expect the pace of recovery to be slow,” said Tim Leelahaphan, economist at Standard Chartered Bank (Thai).

 

“Investment is unlikely to recover until next year or later as Covid-19 is likely to exacerbate existing delays in private and government investment and initiatives, keeping the economy below potential.”

 

Thailand’s first quarter gross domestic product contracted by 1.8 per cent on year (2.2 per cent contraction on quarter, seasonally adjusted) versus the consensus of a 3.9 per cent contraction on year (4.2 per cent contraction on quarter). This was the first year-on-year contraction since early 2014.

 

"We expect another 25bps rate cut in the third quarter, taking the policy rate to 0.25 per cent. We also do not rule out further policy rate cuts to below 0.25 per cent, however. Negative rates are unlikely but not off the table,” added Tim.

 

Standard Chartered said economic growth is far below Thailand’s potential rate of 4 per cent, and headline inflation is below the Bank of Thailand’s 1-3 per cent target range.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30388661

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-05-28

 

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this will happen in many countries after covid, Thailand is a cash economy and as many were unable to work during the lock down the cash has dried up so it will take some time for people to be able to start spending again. Then you have tourism which is a big factor in Thailands economy as well, until people from overseas are confident enough to return and have the money to spend Thailand will strugle, hopefully this means the baht will drop in value but as most countries are suffering it may take some time to happen. If the baht does drop it may mean a quicker recovery too, the strength of the baht means people from overseas are looking elsewhere to holiday so once people feel safe a lower baht may draw them back to Thailand but the govt really needs to pull its finger out and make it more hospitable too foreigners as well, especially the western countries which the govt seems to have a dislike for

Edited May 28, 20206 yr by seajae

Since the Thai economy and global economies are suffering badly, but somehow the Thai currency is rising sharply. How did they do that?

2 hours ago, kevin612 said:

Since the Thai economy and global economies are suffering badly, but somehow the Thai currency is rising sharply. How did they do that?

They dont "do" that. 

3 hours ago, kevin612 said:

Since the Thai economy and global economies are suffering badly, but somehow the Thai currency is rising sharply. How did they do that?

At the end of last year USD/THB was hovering around the low 30's, then the virus struck and THB started to lose value, at the start of April it bottomed at 33. Since the start of April markets have judged that the financial impact and cost to the Thai economy will not be 

as bad as first thought and that economic fundamentals remain intact, borrowings will only increase by about 10% of GDP......April's export figure was actually higher than one year earlier. Because of those things THB is slowly returning to its previous trend and is strengthening once again.

2 years is pretty good considering most other countries will take 5 to 10 atleast, if at all.

Edited May 28, 20206 yr by Don Mega

37 minutes ago, Don Mega said:

2 years is pretty good considering most other countries will take 5 to 10 atleast, if at all.

Really? Do you have any sources to back up your claim? You make it sound like the apocalypse.

Return to what I wonder. The general domestic economy seemed to be pretty bad before Covid. Tourism down, exports and manufacturing down, farmers in trouble with drout and high baht. Local businesses were closing down left right and centre

Edited May 28, 20206 yr by Tingtong2mut

2 hours ago, eeworldwide said:

Really? Do you have any sources to back up your claim? You make it sound like the apocalypse.

I agree with his opinion, do you have any "sources" to back up your claim?

Seems to be the new TVF go to if you disagree with someones opinion, are personal opinions no longer allowed, back up your "claim" with the nonsense that the MSM spews out instead! ???? 

To many it is the "apocalypse" have you not realised that yet?

Do you have opinions of your own or wait to ride on the back of those that do have them, go ahead and think for yourself, its free & allowed - for now! ????

Edited May 28, 20206 yr by CGW

26 minutes ago, CGW said:

I agree with his opinion, do you have any "sources" to back up your claim?

Seems to be the new TVF go to if you disagree with someones opinion, are personal opinions no longer allowed, back up your "claim" with the nonsense that the MSM spews out instead! ???? 

To many it is the "apocalypse" have you not realised that yet?

Do you have opinions of your own or wait to ride on the back of those that do have them, go ahead and think for yourself, its free & allowed - for now! ????

You're rather aggressive, but hey - I'll bite!

Have you ever entertained the notion that this might well be the second wave of Covd19, and therefore the worst and that things will get better from here on in?

 

Isn't that altogether more positive?

If the US is anything to measure by, Thailand is going to take a lot more than 2 years to recover, and the drop in 2020 will be much more than 5%.  People don’t seem to understand just how much the stock market is being propped up by the central banks, how long the drop in auto sales will last, the true impact on income and savings for the majority of the population, and the level of fear many people have in returning to “normal.”  My guess is 2020 is down 15% and 2021 down a further 5%, with a 3-5% growth over the next few years

 

(I think the US will struggle to recover in two years— Thailand is not as resilient both socially and economically, which will likely stretch the recovery out to 5-7 years if “well executed” by the mupets in power.)

2 hours ago, tjo o tjim said:

If the US is anything to measure by, Thailand is going to take a lot more than 2 years to recover, and the drop in 2020 will be much more than 5%.  People don’t seem to understand just how much the stock market is being propped up by the central banks, how long the drop in auto sales will last, the true impact on income and savings for the majority of the population, and the level of fear many people have in returning to “normal.”  My guess is 2020 is down 15% and 2021 down a further 5%, with a 3-5% growth over the next few years

 

(I think the US will struggle to recover in two years— Thailand is not as resilient both socially and economically, which will likely stretch the recovery out to 5-7 years if “well executed” by the mupets in power.)

The US is not anything to measure Thailand by, it's a totally different economy...one is a large heavily over indebted monolith, the other is a very small exporting country that has very little debt and almost no social security overheads. 

3 hours ago, eeworldwide said:

Have you ever entertained the notion that this might well be the second wave of Covd19, and therefore the worst and that things will get better from here on in?

 

Isn't that altogether more positive?

This seems to be a common misconception. It cannot get better from here on in. People think in terms of the virus as the determining factor going forward. Even if the virus were to utterly disappear from planet Earth tomorrow, the economic cake has been baked. The lockdowns worldwide have sown the seeds of what comes over the next two to five years, regardless of the virus. As an example, there is a "beer garden" close to my townhouse. It took the owner years to build up that location. The rent on the property is 60,000 per month, which was supported by 8 small restaurants. Now, the place is gutted, and down to only her restaurant. She will shut it down next month. That is gone. It will not come back in one day, one month, possibly ever. Every employee of those restaurants is now unemployed. Where do they find a new job? At the other restaurants that are shutting down? How will they pay their rent? Oh, the apartment building nearby has seen 30% of their units empty over the past two months. They are now laying off personnel. Play that out over many businesses. We are still on the downward trend of this process, and it will need to bottom. Then there is the long climb back up...

1 hour ago, timendres said:

This seems to be a common misconception. It cannot get better from here on in. People think in terms of the virus as the determining factor going forward. Even if the virus were to utterly disappear from planet Earth tomorrow, the economic cake has been baked. The lockdowns worldwide have sown the seeds of what comes over the next two to five years, regardless of the virus. As an example, there is a "beer garden" close to my townhouse. It took the owner years to build up that location. The rent on the property is 60,000 per month, which was supported by 8 small restaurants. Now, the place is gutted, and down to only her restaurant. She will shut it down next month. That is gone. It will not come back in one day, one month, possibly ever. Every employee of those restaurants is now unemployed. Where do they find a new job? At the other restaurants that are shutting down? How will they pay their rent? Oh, the apartment building nearby has seen 30% of their units empty over the past two months. They are now laying off personnel. Play that out over many businesses. We are still on the downward trend of this process, and it will need to bottom. Then there is the long climb back up...

That's a one dimensional view. For every existing business that cannot start up once again there will be new businesses getting ready to launch and cash buyers looking to buy existing businesses that are in distress. You seem to imagine the cycle only includes existing business and business owners, it doesn't, it also includes necommers, new capital, acquisitions, mergers, opportunists and others. 

12 hours ago, kevin612 said:

Since the Thai economy and global economies are suffering badly, but somehow the Thai currency is rising sharply. How did they do that?

Sharp rise ?

 

25 minutes ago, Trillian said:

That's a one dimensional view. For every existing business that cannot start up once again there will be new businesses getting ready to launch and cash buyers looking to buy existing businesses that are in distress. You seem to imagine the cycle only includes existing business and business owners, it doesn't, it also includes necommers, new capital, acquisitions, mergers, opportunists and others. 

In an economic depression such as the one the world is currently facing the number of businesses closing is significantly higher than those new ones opening. (I don’t know the number for Thailand but in 2009 in the U.K. the net number of businesses closing was 125,000)

This is a much bigger economic crash than 2009 and the pain for the millions of over indebted Thais who have leveraged themselves to the hilt with mortgages, cars, credit cards etc will be severe when unemployment inevitably starts to rise.

any economy turnround will depend on how  long the corona virus episode drags on as the world economies are so interdependent.

1 hour ago, Hackney35 said:

In an economic depression such as the one the world is currently facing the number of businesses closing is significantly higher than those new ones opening. (I don’t know the number for Thailand but in 2009 in the U.K. the net number of businesses closing was 125,000)

This is a much bigger economic crash than 2009 and the pain for the millions of over indebted Thais who have leveraged themselves to the hilt with mortgages, cars, credit cards etc will be severe when unemployment inevitably starts to rise.

It's not possible to generalise, the number of business in Thailand that close every year has traditionally been quite high, ditto the number of new ones starting up. There's an awful lot of money swilling around in Thailand that's looking for things to buy, banks aren't paying interest and stock markets are regarded with suspicion, the Chinese and Chinese Thai's traditionally invest in business anyway and this time around will be no different. 

 

It's also not sensible to compare the Thai and UK labour markets, the UK has an unemployment and social security safety net, Thailand has very little in that regard hence people always have to find some work. If push comes to shove native Thai job seekers can always displace the migrant workforce, the Burmese in particular which is a huge segment of the country's labour market.

10 hours ago, eeworldwide said:

Really? Do you have any sources to back up your claim? You make it sound like the apocalypse.

Nobody knows for sure but here is the pessimistic perspective/point of view:

Many countries (USA among others) never recovered from the 2008/2009 financial crisis. 

Interest rates went down to zero after that crisis and wasn't able to normalize. All they did was blow up a bigger stock market bubble (candidate Trump called it a bubble, president Trump called it a great economy).

When they tried to normalize rates In 2018 they quickly had to change course and start lowering rates and do more qe. By the end of 2019 (before anyone had heard of corona) the overnight repo markets showed signs of trouble. Google it.

 

And then corona hit.

 

The fed wasn't able to normalize rates in 10 years from 2008/2009. And this crisis is way way way bigger so they will never ever be able to normalize rates. Which means that the US will either destroy it's currency or default on its debt.

 

Anyway, I don't fully "believe" in the above. But it's a narrative that is hard to ignore or dismiss.

8 hours ago, Tingtong2mut said:

Return to what I wonder. The general domestic economy seemed to be pretty bad before Covid. Tourism down, exports and manufacturing down, farmers in trouble with drout and high baht. Local businesses were closing down left right and centre

Tourism wasn't 'down' pre-covid. 39 million visitors in 2019 vs. 38 million in 2018.

15 hours ago, kevin612 said:

Since the Thai economy and global economies are suffering badly, but somehow the Thai currency is rising sharply. How did they do that?

The market did that. very little debt and large foreign reserves with an authoritarian government in power.

6 minutes ago, newnative said:

Tourism wasn't 'down' pre-covid. 39 million visitors in 2019 vs. 38 million in 2018.

And exports weren't down either!

36 minutes ago, hobz said:

Nobody knows for sure but here is the pessimistic perspective/point of view:

Many countries (USA among others) never recovered from the 2008/2009 financial crisis. 

Interest rates went down to zero after that crisis and wasn't able to normalize. All they did was blow up a bigger stock market bubble (candidate Trump called it a bubble, president Trump called it a great economy).

When they tried to normalize rates In 2018 they quickly had to change course and start lowering rates and do more qe. By the end of 2019 (before anyone had heard of corona) the overnight repo markets showed signs of trouble. Google it.

 

And then corona hit.

 

The fed wasn't able to normalize rates in 10 years from 2008/2009. And this crisis is way way way bigger so they will never ever be able to normalize rates. Which means that the US will either destroy it's currency or default on its debt.

 

Anyway, I don't fully "believe" in the above. But it's a narrative that is hard to ignore or dismiss.

None of the major Industrial nations will default on their debt, that would be economic armageddon for the whole world. You are right that recovery is a long way off, even Johnson has said that the UK economy may never recover, the US with its huge mountain of debt (as has Japan) is a basket case in a league of its own, what will happen? nobody knows but normal is a long way off, normal depended on affordable debt but now debt has got out of hand.

i am not going anyplace because the world will not provide me with health care when leaving the country. there is a need for blanket health care when people travel. people need health care when they travel. how do you do this. 

1 minute ago, ebean001 said:

i am not going anyplace because the world will not provide me with health care when leaving the country. there is a need for blanket health care when people travel. people need health care when they travel. how do you do this. 

Consider health insurance perhaps!

1 hour ago, Trillian said:

It's not possible to generalise, the number of business in Thailand that close every year has traditionally been quite high, ditto the number of new ones starting up. There's an awful lot of money swilling around in Thailand that's looking for things to buy, banks aren't paying interest and stock markets are regarded with suspicion, the Chinese and Chinese Thai's traditionally invest in business anyway and this time around will be no different. 

 

It's also not sensible to compare the Thai and UK labour markets, the UK has an unemployment and social security safety net, Thailand has very little in that regard hence people always have to find some work. If push comes to shove native Thai job seekers can always displace the migrant workforce, the Burmese in particular which is a huge segment of the country's labour market.

I liked your post but the UK safety net is slowly breaking apart if the UK tabloids are to be believed.

Just now, soalbundy said:

I liked your post but the UK safety net is slowly breaking apart if the UK tabloids are to be believed.

I won't get too excited until the story migrates from the Express to the Torygraph. ????

 

I suspect we will see attitudes change towards debt, what used to be a huge number is now being replaced by an even bigger one and people will have to learn to live with that. I see Soros is suggesting that debt should now not have an end date, open ended indebtedness is the thing of the future perhaps, borrow away, as much as you want, you've got forever to repay it.

Just now, Trillian said:

I won't get too excited until the story migrates from the Express to the Torygraph. ????

 

I suspect we will see attitudes change towards debt, what used to be a huge number is now being replaced by an even bigger one and people will have to learn to live with that. I see Soros is suggesting that debt should now not have an end date, open ended indebtedness is the thing of the future perhaps, borrow away, as much as you want, you've got forever to repay it.

That works as long as you can pay the interest rates, the UK has only just finished paying off its debts for WWII. Sooner or later the piper demands payment.

15 hours ago, kevin612 said:

Since the Thai economy and global economies are suffering badly, but somehow the Thai currency is rising sharply. How did they do that?

Because the western economies are printing $trillions of funny money. Thailand is borrowing 5 bob. The West is printing their currencies into oblivion.

1 hour ago, hobz said:

Which means that the US will either destroy it's currency or default on its debt.

 

Anyway, I don't fully "believe" in the above. But it's a narrative that is hard to ignore or dismiss.

It's actually incredibly easy to dismiss, firstly the US currency is the world's leading reserve and crisis currency, if there is economic crisis, guess what happens, the US dollar strengthens.

 

As for the US defaulting on its debt the financial position of the United States includes assets of at least $269.6 trillion (1576% of GDP) and debts of $145.8 trillion (852% of GDP) to produce a net worth of at least $123.8 trillion (723% of GDP) as of Q1 2014.

 

What this means is that the wealth of the USA is virtually unimaginable.